Weekend Data Dump

A friend who has reason to know told me that German 155mm shells don't work in our cannons. WTAF. So much for NATO common standards. How many violations of that objective exist?

As long as drones can't operate in fog, these will work: "The U.S. military is tinkering with high-energy lasers in Iraq as part of a broader effort to refine directed-energy weapons and more effectively counter drones[.]"

The Baltic Security Initiative was given $228 million: "The focus of the U.S. funding is on developing air defense, maritime situational awareness and land forces in the Baltic nations[.]"

Yes: "if Republicans cut off U.S. military aid to Ukraine, ... they will own [the debacle] in the same way that Biden owns the exit from Afghanistan." Biden would welcome the ability to lose the war while blaming Republicans. The big difference is that the media would attack--not defend--Republicans.

Good luck: "The industries of Germany and France will have an equal share of work in developing and producing a future tank, the countries’ defense ministers announced March 22."

The tale of how India's navy tracked and captured Somali pirates who'd taken over a civilian ship.

The rise of FPV drones. Note that Russia's FPV drones have a 12% kill rate. Plus a 15% damage rate. How does this compare to precision artillery, anti-tank missiles or guns, or even dumb artillery? On that answer--and how counter-measures develop--rests the question of whether FPV drones are decisive.

I think Russia's performance in the Winter War of 2022 validates this pre-war TDR assessment of the value of Russia's combat experience in the "frozen" Donbas fight from 2014-2022.

Memory holed: "The top brass ordered by President Joe Biden to abruptly evacuate Afghanistan had no clue how many Americans were still hiding in or near Kabul as the Taliban took back control, and do not know how many were left behind." Biden obscured his failure with random volume. Tip to Instapundit.

AI censorship is denser than even partisan human censorship. But no less wrong. Tip to Instapundit.

Good: "The surface fleet has been clear: it wants more warfare tactics instructors, officers highly trained in areas like air and missile defense and anti-submarine warfare, to serve in a growing number of roles at sea and ashore." Now execute. The Navy assumed sea control and persisted in that belief too long.

America and Japan see China as enough of a threat to compel combined operations: "Restructuring the U.S. military command in Japan could result in a combined U.S.-Japanese headquarters, according to security experts."

America has no Plan B for the Winter War of 2022? Pushing for Plan B is nuts. Russia decided to wage war. Plan A is winning the war. Plan B is simply a search for a way to disguise losing the war to Russia--and getting more war anyway.

American intelligence organizations can't call Islamist terrorists "jihadists". But isn't that their preferred pronoun? Back in the Obama era the approved term was the vague "violent extremist organization." I say claiming Moslems are offended by the term implies all Moslems are or support jihadists.

An odd exemption given that its enemies hate Jews: "Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is at odds with some ministers over plans to conscript ultra-Orthodox men into the Israeli Defense Forces. All Israeli adults must serve in the nation’s army, but ultra-Orthodox Haredi men are exempt." 

Well, yes: "The art of war isn't just knowing how to attack or defend. It's also knowing how to retreat with minimum losses in personnel and equipment." I thought Ukraine did a decent job at Avdiivka, all things considered. Or maybe Russia isn't good at maintaining contact and pursuing.

And Trump will abandon allies? "Washington stood aside and allowed the UN Security Council to pass a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza." If we let weak terror groups like Hamas win, how can we deter China? Or Russia? Or even North Korea or Iran? Oh, well never mind about Iran, of course.

My bad: "The Houthis said they would refrain from attacking Chinese ships off the coast of Yemen, but this past weekend, the Iran-backed rebels did exactly what they said they wouldn't." Did the Houthi use Iranian targeting data or did they find the target themselves?

Even in our Revolution and Civil War, recruiting became more difficult after a couple years of war: "Ukraine’s armed forces desperately need fresh troops to hold back massed Russian offensives. But political dithering is leaving front-line units threadbare." The need is no less desperate for that history.

Why do progressives hate responsible people so much? I really should say "progressives" rather than "Democrats" even though progressives drive the Democratic Party bus these days.

Russia is blaming Ukraine, Britain, and America for the jihadi terror attack near Moscow. Is that propaganda? Is Russia quietly focused on jihadis? Or is Russia blinded by the need to blame Ukraine? Will Russia get seriously stupid? Will jihadis exploit the blindness to launch more attacks on Russia?

A State Department official resigned in protest and now tries to thwart Israel outside of the government. Well, berserkers who wish to destroy humans with relentless evil can always find goodlife. Interesting how the media is now reviving the glory of dissent from government policy.

American troops defend the fragile win in Kosovo. You may recall Allied Force in 1999 and the "victory through air power" urge. Huh, later this old essay about the 1999 limits of air power was in my krill flow.

Britain wants its own submarine-launched nuclear warhead not dependent on American components. As much as I doubt Russian nuke functionality, can simulations really validate the design of our new nukes? I'm skeptical about this. And even if they can, did we build the nukes to the standards of the simulation?

A reminder--so long after 9/11--that you can inflict a lot of damage without explosives: "The Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland, has collapsed after a large container boat collided with it early Tuesday morning." Although there are no indications this was terrorism.

China needs the trade and technology of South Korea more than it needs dirt-poor and aggressive North Korea on its border. It was all fun and games for Peking when North Korea's progress toward nuclear missiles scared South Korea, Japan, and America. But nuclear-armed North Korea is a threat to China.

The Navy is testing TRAM to reload VLS cells at sea. Currently ships have to go to port to reload. Which takes time and makes it easier to target the warships. If TRAM works, some ships will have it installed.

Jihadi terrorists invaded Israel. They struck in Russia. They believe they are the strong horse. How long before jihadis strike here? An open border and bizarre focus on "deplorables" argues we're vulnerable. Our Congress even refused to block "migrant" flights to our interior cities. Is Biden the jihad's travel agent?

The LCS is absent from the Red Sea littorals: "Why? Simple. They cannot conduct combat on the littorals." I've long noted that. To be fair, the LCS concept had merit in the blue waters if the modules worked. I liked the modules. But they--and much else, too--did not work. Via Instapundit.

The real minimum wage is zero. Destructive left-wing activism to push the minimum wage sky high helps the activists when those who keep their jobs get a raise; and gives them more unemployed who can be told their woes are the fault of free-market capitalism and cruel governments that won't spend more on welfare.

Don't believe Russian bluster that it shrugs off sanctions. But I reject that it is a "charade" that Congress delays a vote on needed military aid for Ukraine. I blame Biden for holding Ukraine hostage to bizarrely keep our southern border wide open. Republicans are right to value our border's security. Do both!

Can F-16s counter this? "Russia has apparently fielded another low-cost glide weapon, adding pressure on Ukraine’s stretched ground-based air defences amid concern over Kyiv’s remaining inventory of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs)."

Is the long-overdue Third Plenum "a sign of a notable divide within the CCP, particularly among its top leaders"? That's outside of my lane. But if Xi is unable to orchestrate agreement for his policies, that conclusion seems reasonable. What does that mean for foreign policy? Caution or aggression?

Asking someone else do your work--even if an AI aggregating other people's work--will do that: "reliance on ChatGPT is linked to procrastination, memory loss, and a decline in academic performance." At best these people learn how to ask a machine the question their instructor asked them. Tip to Instapundit.

Gonna be honest. I assumed the hostages Hamas took on October 7, 2023 were doomed. So yeah, they are likely dead or soon will be. I'm shocked Israel got as many out as they did. Preventing future hostages is the mission. By making good jihadis, of course.

You think you distrust and hate our media enough. You do not. Tip to Instapundit.

Progress: "In 2018, upon assuming duties as logistics director for U.S. Forces Korea, I considered U.S. military forces’ preparedness to conduct large-scale ground combat in the Indo-Pacific region." I was a pioneer in Military Review. And I wrote about the synergy of services achieving their core competencies.

Science: "hurricanes aren’t getting bigger or more intense. He said that as temperatures naturally warm coming out of the Little Ice Age, hurricanes and weather events will get less intense—not exponentially worse." Which is different than The Science! twisted by climate activist fanatics. Tip to Instapundit.

I won't go down this path despite Biden screwing the pooch in Afghanistan: "CNN National Security Analyst Peter Bergen is laying the responsibility of one of the deadliest terror attacks in Moscow at President Joe Biden’s feet." Jihadis are responsible for the terrorism. Blame Biden for not killing jihadis.

FFS, a call to accept violent militias in Iraq who attack us rather than strike them in order to solve the deep-seated "root causes" of the militias. The echelon above reality strikes again.

Ukraine is trying to get home-grown ammunition and weapons as Western supplies falter. This is good for the long run. But Ukraine needs Western supplies now to have a long run. 

Good: "France will soon be able to deliver 78 Caesar howitzers to Ukraine and will boost its supply of shells[.]" Macron--at the moment--believes supporting Ukraine is good for him.

The Army will finally put an active protection system on its Bradleys. Not many. But it's a start.

The Army will slow the stressful pace of rotations for its much-in-demand armored brigades.

If real, that should be ended. But I'm going to guess this is a phantom Nazi panic like past accusations. I recall a tattoo that was identified as problematic but was not. Sadly, the current picture is blurred ... to protect us? Or prevent us from judging?

If Biden loses, the reason might be his China-strengthening "ill-conceived drive to push electric vehicles into making up over three-fifths of all car purchases by the 2030s." I just want a reliable, less-expensive internal combustion engine car. Why do progressive-dominated Democrats hate us so much?

Get the figurative tar and feathers: "Where these laws allow squatters to occupy houses without the owner's consent, they qualify as takings of private property that require payment of compensation under the Fifth Amendment." Our officials who hate responsible people must pay financial consequences.

Western counter-battery radar and precision ammunition help Ukraine make the most of their ammo shortage to target Russian artillery.

Ukraine's anti-access/area denial: "Russian warships are still in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov extension in the northeast, and the more distant naval base at Novorossiysk, but rarely move out of port, even for a few days." Suicide surface drones get credit. Wouldn't CAPTOR for surface targets do better?

For Democrats, "victim" allies are just the X auxiliary to harness for their progressive objectives. If you are a member of the minority X group but don't support progressive policies, "you ain't X", to coin an expression.

Anybody who says Ukraine's success against Russia's Black Sea Fleet should cause China to worry about what Taiwan could do ignores that Ukraine has inflicted this damage over 25 months. Taiwan would need to inflict multiples of that damage in 25 hours.

More will follow: "The Army may introduce a drone and robotics platoon into its armored brigade combat teams[.]"

LOL: "Can the European Union facilitate a more stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific? Brussels believes so." Brussels believes no such thing. Brussels believes the authority to implement even a plan doomed to fail helps erase the inconvenient prefix of their proto-imperial union. But you know my opinion by now.

Democrat accusations that Republicans are pawns of Russia really infuriate me given their persistent recent role as useful idiots for the Russians. Going back to Soviet times, too. 

Bugger off: "Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Tuesday accused Meta of suppressing Palestine-related content on its platforms, calling its actions 'deeply troubling.'" They're only troubled when what they agree with is suppressed. End--don't guide--censorship.

Putin is a dangerous bastard: "Planes flying over and around the Baltic Sea in northern Europe have been suffering technical problems caused by jamming since Sunday, with 1614 planes, mostly civilian, reporting problems since then." Proving my point that Kaliningrad must be the first NATO war objective.

The twilight of the rule of policy wonks. Deservedly so. The "experts" pretend to know about more than their narrow areas of expertise--when they can even develop that core knowledge. 

No Democrat is an alternative to Trump. Progressive autocrats run the Democratic Party. But I'm realistic. Trump is not conservative--although he governed in a more conservative way than I expected. But he listens to blue collar concerns. And he's no threat to democracy. Why don't all Republicans get that?

Could "innovations in artificial intelligence, robotics, genetically-modified crops, and space travel" restore population growth? I seriously doubt expensive space travel could do that given the lack of terraformed living space in our solar system. But maybe space would be a psychological boost.

Sometimes I wonder if Lukashenko is maneuvering to defect from Russian control: "Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that the Crocus City Hall attackers originally fled toward Belarus not Ukraine, directly undermining the Kremlin narrative on Ukraine’s involvement[.]" He preempted revelation of that.

I still wonder if the land that has emerged (is emerging?) from the Kakhovka Reservoir following the 2023 destruction of the main dam that created the reservoir will become an avenue for ground attacks.

As long as I'm wondering about old wondering, why haven't we seen mining on the static front inside Ukraine? Or Ukraine burying a massive explosive in the path of Russia's advance where Ukraine falls back?

I've heard this before: "Rich NYC teens are getting fake ADHD diagnoses to win extra time on the SATs leading to huge surge in points: 'Everyone is doing it[.]'" The road to corruption is paved with good intentions. Tip to Instapundit.

Fingers crossed for an easier way to kill threats: "The U.S. Navy plans to mount a high-powered microwave prototype system on one of its vessels as early as 2026, according to the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2025 budget documents." It has "tactically significant range". Am I wrong to assume point defense?

Ukraine's aerial drone offensive: "Targets are usually industrial facilities that support the war effort. These include numerous oil refineries and oil fuel storage facilities plus facilities involving specialty steels for tube artillery and tanks." Biden pressures Ukraine to stop the oil attacks to help his reelection. Huh.

The M10 Booker. Burn, baby burn. 

Comrades! Adjust your Newspeak Dictionary accordingly.

Persistent autocratic impulses: "Three separate investigations took over a year to nail down the case that government agencies were improperly censoring by proxy. Forced by courts to stop, they're desperately trying for a reboot[.]" Tar. Feathers. Tip to Instapundit.

Why on Earth is Biden crippling America's ability to replace Russia's money-generating natural gas exports? Yet Democrats say Putin has blackmail material on Trump? Tip to Instapundit.

Why does the government assume American Moslems support terrorists? "The United States' top intelligence agency wants to ban its spies from using ... the terms 'radical Islamists' and 'jihadist,' saying these words are "hurtful to Muslim-Americans[.]" Seems pretty racist to me. Tip to Instapundit.

Why do climate fanatics hate humans so much? "North Sea energy companies could be forced to close oil and gas fields or be prevented from opening new rigs unless they slash emissions." Tip to Instapundit.

While I appreciate anybody who pushes for network-centric rather than platform-centric naval warfare, what does the author's proposal to add aerial drones to all of our ships achieve that anti-ship missiles can't provide if the warships are networked?

Europe "races" to rearm to face Russian aggression. Well, they are probably in the "crawl" stage of "crawl, walk, run." To be fair, at best we're in a brisk walk right now.

Why is Europe moving rightward? Maybe because their proto-imperial EU rulers keep ignoring people who express concerns and calling them fascists. When you aren't even listened to, you will appeal to those who will listen and maybe act on your concerns. Imagine that. The author's answer? Remove the prefix!

Terrorist dangers from Afghanistan territory are rising. "Republicans blamed President Biden for the debacle. Democrats blamed President Trump for his deal with the Taliban." Trump's plan was bad but better than Biden's. We didn't need to lose on Biden's watch. The pooch stopped in front of Biden.

Radical greens have complained about our regular farms for decades. Now more dense indoor farms are bad, too. I'm starting to think the global warmers just want us to die.

India has an interest in preventing China from winning a war against Taiwan--but is unlikely to fight China there. So it does not want a war to start. Sure. India has gone from Look East to Act East. It takes time to Fight East. 

For too many, yes: "Have we really forgotten so quickly the monstrous events of October 7 last year that we genuinely want an immediate ceasefire in Gaza before Hamas has been utterly destroyed as a military force and potential government there?" Hamas endures, expecting Western rescue. Shameful and stupid.

Progressives have revived the nonsensical notion that respect for Islam demands a ceasefire. So Israel should stop trying to defeat the Hamas murderers and rapists, they say. Feel the respect: "Al Shabaab has launched several large-scale and complex attacks [in Somalia] since the beginning of Ramadan[.]" 

Oh: "Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. CQ Brown said he is confident that U.S. troops working to provide humanitarian aid to residents of Gaza will be protected from violence in the region." Our leaders were also confident that our Afghan allies wouldn't be defeated until two years after we left.

Also, if the 82nd Airborne Division drops in Red Square, Russian troops will fire at them: "[Putin] warned that any Western air base hosting U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets that are slated for deployment in Ukraine would be a 'legitimate target' for the Kremlin’s forces." So a pointless threat. Thanks Comrade Obvious.

Perhaps he is more confident American military aid will resume: "Ukraine's military will need to mobilise fewer people than initially expected to fend off Russia's two-year-old invasion, Kyiv's top general said on Friday."

Good point: "The Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS, continues to burn through the life span of its fighter aircraft in the war against Ukraine." Russia likely doesn't have the resources to extend aircraft life spans.

Can anybody do their job in this administration? Now (via Instapundit) it has effed up the FAFSA part of the college financial aid process. Biden rejected money to fix the problem to keep illegal student loan "forgiveness". On the bright side he can't make us pay for loans he can't grant. No, there's no bright side:

The Stupid is strong in this one: "The Biden administration could use 'indigenous knowledge' to jettison a critical mining proposal projected to yield billions of dollars in precious metals used for renewable energy projects." No worries. We'll buy from China. Progressives delay Peak Stupid again. Via Instapundit.

The second Ford-class carrier is already 18 months late. There are problems getting the design to work and delays increase costs even more. Maybe we'll consider whether the ship is worth the money when we need networked numbers.

Israel has used their new Lahav MLRS in combat, intended to replace their American-made M270 tracked MLRS. It can fire different rockets with varying ranges and payloads. And fire and move quickly.

They'll sell each car at a substantial loss, but make a profit on volume! "California-based electric vehicle startup Fisker slashed the prices of some of its vehicles as it fights to avoid bankruptcy after a potential deal with another automaker fell through." Tip to Instapundit.

For a while it seemed like Russia had shifted focus to attacking Ukraine's defense industry: "Moscow launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure Friday[.]" Did Putin pull a Hitler during the Battle of Britain and take his eye off the ball of Britain's air defenses to attack civilians?

Seems like a waste of money when so many have done it for free since there was a USSR: "A Russian-backed 'propaganda' network has been broken up for spreading anti-Ukraine stories and paying unnamed European politicians, according to authorities in several countries." But hey, it's actual real collusion!

The Saudis are reaching the limits of their patience on Israel's offensive against Hamas. As I said from the start, tick tock, Israel. But would the Saudis have reached their limit now if not for Biden turning against Israel? This encourages Iran to back Hamas more, of course, to encourage Saudi-Israeli tension. 

A Christian revival is going on in Britain? The Biden administration won't say "Islamist." But I bet they'll work up some "Christianist" accusations! Tip to Instapundit.

And now for something completely different:

Is France ready to fight Russia? France can sneer at the Russians--or nuke Moscow. Between those extremes, the answer is no. To be fair, no Europeans are ready yet.

Hamas must be reeling to praise Iran, which has done the minimum to look supportive: "The heads of the two leading Palestinian groups at war with Israel have praised Iran's role in an increasingly international conflict over the Gaza Strip in talks with Tehran's top authority."

Honoring those who exposed American censorship:  "When I grew up, I didn't know anybody who was for censorship. There was nobody among the liberals I knew... who had any feelings in that direction. I think as recently as ten years ago, 95% of journalists would have been in agreement[.]" TDS broke them.

The Russians who fight Putin alongside Ukrainians. There aren't many. But then again, not many Wagner fighters advanced a long way toward Moscow with nobody willing to stop them.

You think you distrust and hate the media enough. You do not.

These days I assume increased government control over American businesses is about protecting the government from Americans rather than protecting Americans from hostile foreigners. But the details are outside my lane.

Self-inflicted wound for our military: "Race-conscious “diversity, equity, and inclusion' (DEI) policies are making personnel shortages worse." Diversity is fine. Perhaps even an edge. But only if the military is focused on winning wars. Sadly, contra MacArthur, our woke military has many substitutes for victory.

But they aren't as sexy and chic as drones: "An element of that strong defense, experts argue, could be one of the cheapest naval tactics: sea mines. The under-the-water, hidden explosives could be key to derailing an amphibious assault and waging asymmetric warfare against China's superior navy."

Democrats claim Americans are too stupid to know the economy is great. But inflation hurts us. And since 1983 inflation statistics ignores the effects of high loan interest rates. Which was fine with low rates. So the statistics fail to reflect reality--like woke era crime statistics. I don't trust any economic statistics.

Hawaii isn't covered by the NATO Article V defense clause because it isn't in the North Atlantic? Sure, NATO formed before Hawaii was a state. But this seems like an argument only lawyers would make. America is part of NATO and Hawaii is a full-fledged state in America no less than covered Alaska is. 

Will Russian men accept being treated no better than spent shell casings or empty ration pouches? "One difference between the Ukrainian and Russian armies is their treatment of the dead. The Russians just leave their dead behind and move on. The Ukrainian and NATO armies identify and bury their war dead."

I've long read women are fine as snipers and insurgents: "After Russia invaded Ukraine, one of the responses was that more than 60,000 Ukrainian women volunteered to join the military. Most of the women served in non-combat jobs but at least 5,000 served in the combat zone, many of them as snipers."

Collective defense at the western end of European NATO: "There isn’t a better poster child for freeloading in the trans-Atlantic alliance than that of Spain." In case you wonder why Trump complains about Europeans.

Hopefully not too late: "French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said France is to deliver 'hundreds' of armored vehicles by the beginning of next year to Ukraine as part of a new package of military aid for the country that just entered its third year since the Russian invasion."

If only current and recent presidents felt the same way: "When asked in a press conference near the end of his time in office what his administration’s most important accomplishment was, Coolidge was quoted as replying, 'I think it would have to be, minding our own business.'" 

This is normal: "The annual spring decree calling up around 150,000 conscripts to the Russian military signed by President Vladimir Putin was published in Moscow on Sunday in line with longstanding practice." Will there be a more general mobilization? Will young men evade this conscription round? 

I argued in this article that China just needs to get ashore to beat Taiwan: "Much of the world—perhaps America especially—would be relieved to have a cease-fire before American and Chinese forces are openly shooting at each other." After cease-fire calls for Ukraine and Israel to help enemies, am I wrong?

Hezbollah's Empire in the Western Hemisphere

Iran's bloody proxy Hezbollah is another roaring success from American Smart Diplomacy®.

Iran's global terror proxy is a danger: 

The activities of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxy Hezbollah have increased alarmingly in the Western Hemisphere. “Iran’s main regional objective is to establish a political, military, and paramilitary network, parallel to like-minded anti-U.S. movements and regimes, to counter its influence and erode its legitimacy in the Western Hemisphere,” think tank American Enterprise Institute (AEI) says in a report.

The terrorist organization Hezbollah has a presence in more than 40 countries worldwide. Its presence in Latin America is of growing concern, especially in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, and Peru. For decades, one of the most active regions for this terrorist group has been the Triple Frontier between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay, where security forces have found explosives and evidence of the group’s financing through narcotrafficking, German broadcaster DW reported.

Thanks, Obama (quoting an article about just one price Obama was willing to pay to get his moronic Iran nuclear deal):

In its determination to secure a nuclear deal with Iran, the Obama administration derailed an ambitious law enforcement campaign [Project Cassandra] targeting drug trafficking by the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah, even as it was funneling cocaine into the United States, according to a POLITICO investigation. ...

“During the negotiations, early on, they [the Iranians] said listen, we need you to lay off Hezbollah, to tamp down the pressure on them, and the Obama administration acquiesced to that request,” the former CIA officer told POLITICO. “It was a strategic decision to show good faith toward the Iranians in terms of reaching an agreement.”

I wonder what Hezbollah funnels into America now? Across a conveniently unguarded southern border courtesy of Biden and his Obama-era minions? It's quiet. Too quiet.

Have a super sparkly day.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Strategic Tunnel Vision

I'm all on board the argument that America needs to revive its Navy to cope with China. But I object to defining China as the universe of our threats and treating the First Island Chain as our Maginot Line to prevent war. And also, define "sea power" as it applies to reviving our Navy.

Sure:

According to a recent analysis from the U.S. Department of Defense, the PLAN is focused on the PRC’s ability to “fight and win wars” against a “strong enemy (强敌)” (aka the United States).  This may not represent a clear desire to launch a preemptive offensive against the United States Navy per se; Beijing has more restrained national interests to protect on the high seas, including valuable trade routes in the Maritime Silk Road.  However, given China’s increasingly aggressive stance towards its neighbors, America cannot afford to assume innocent motives, especially in light of China’s recent confrontations with the Philippines, disregard for international law, and of course, public preparation for Taiwan reunification, by force if necessary. 

But really?

If the United States is serious about retaining its global relevance and military edge in an era of Great Power competition, it cannot afford to permit an outdated defense industrial base, political malpractice, legacy planning, or short-term crises in periphery areas of the globe to sap its resources and strategic focus from the overwhelming priority: deterring the PLAN from a Pacific war. [emphasis added]

I'm very worried about our Navy and its leadership:

The Navy's admirals don't seem to realize that they need to get serious about preparing their service for a war in which American control of the seas is not assured.

But treating China as the only threat is dangerous. Remember, in that DOD analysis the author cites, the United States calls China the "pacing challenge" against which we judge our capabilities--not the threat we have to totally focus on because it is the mostly likely war we'll fight:

The 2022 National Security Strategy states that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the only competitor to the United States with the intent and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape the international order. As a result, the 2022 National Defense Strategy identifies the PRC as the “pacing challenge” for the Department of Defense

If we overly focus on INDOPACOM, we invite enemies in other theaters--which are not "periphery areas"--to act while we stand our ground in Asia:

Europe is an economy-of-force front, but it is an important  front.

Africa is lower down in priorities, but still a front.

And the Middle East still requires our attention to defend the gains we've made since America had to escalate its role and commitments during periods of major threats to stability and Western prosperity. This is the more visible part of the Global Troubles to keep jihadis from threatening America at home.

The initial author notes the importance of global sea trade. But that's a global system of trade. Can we really just abandon defending it in select areas without crippling the whole?

Further, we often boast that an American strategic advantage is our large number of friends and allies. But that isn't a given in the power equation. Eventually, if we get tunnel vision on INDOPACOM, our position in the rest of the world will be weakened by other enemies enough to undermine our overall power by stripping away allies or demanding their focus on areas we ignore. We'd be treating the First Island Chain in the Pacific as our very own Maginot Line that our enemies go around.

And then China could pounce.

Clearly, we've been pivoting to focus on China ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union. We have very few forces committed to Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, or Africa. I think it is ridiculous to argue we are distracted by the rest of the world. How much more should we withdraw? We're damned close to the point in those areas where the only thing left to pack up and take home are the cemeteries of our troops who died in combat overseas to protect America.

And pray tell, just how do we pack even more forces into limited bases in the western Pacific? I fear we would just put our best military assets in easy reach of an initial theater-wide Pearl Harbor by China.

Defeating or even deterring China aren't ideal. I'd rather deflect China from the sea by getting them worried more about a "strong enemy" inland. Or make such an enemy a more appealing target than our allies.

Finally, "sea power" is too broad of a term to be useful for defining how we revive our Navy. Sea power consists of winning sea control and projecting power ashore from the sea. Those are different things and I believe they require different types of ships (and different quantities).

Let's define what we need our Navy to do to face China. But don't neglect the rest of the world or the land and air power needed for our global interests. Hell, don't think the sole means of defeating, deterring, or distracting China consists of air and naval power, as I argued in Military Review. I consider that approach a supporting effort to push China's focus away from the First Island Chain.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

The Continent of China

China is a continent with a state government superimposed on it. That's a fragile arrangement.

Nothing indicates if this is a problem for the next several weeks or the next several decades, but it is a problem Chinese rulers are concerned about:

Chinese are hyper-aware of how historically fragile their present unified state is. China has spent most of the past 3000 years fragmented into several contending states, or warlordism and anarchy. Stable unity has been the exception. The period of troubles when a dynasty is falling is called Fall of the Mandate of Heaven. Watching for, and fantasizing about, signs of this are common. Local Chinese leaders, currently civil government officials responsible for various political and geographic areas, economic interests, and so on, tend to carry this watchfulness to extremes. If The Fall ever happens, they can endeavor to prosper or at least survive. 

Do read it all, for it touches on the Chinese bio-lab discovered here in America last year as a symptom of the fear of falling:

China’s government has lost control of its regional leaders, who are now waging private wars against America. With weapons of mass destruction. Had it been an official Chinese government biowar lab, that would have been an overt act of war. Fortunately, it wasn’t, but it is still a big problem because the California lab is unlikely to be the only one, and we absolutely dare not assume it was.

That red lined my pucker factor. I'd hope the FBI would spend a little more time finding and cleaning these up in America rather than going after conservatives.

That fear of chaos may be one reason the Chinese Communist Party is so brutal with its minorities in Xinjiang and Tibet (and Hong Kong, with less brutality but similar dogged effort). And the zeal that China has for its Social Credit system of control of the Han majority, too. China is seemingly ready to shift to brute force rather than economic growth bribery to keep its people in line. Can that work?

Will China strike a foreign enemy to unify China?

Will Xi even have accurate information to act on? That's a requirement for China's mythical long-range planning ability, isn't it?

I've long noted that China is a continent with forces pulling it into numerous countries. Which means predictions of China's future path could be "all of the above":

With a state both cruel and failing economically, governing a continent-sized population with a history of fragmentation, I don't know why we need to guess which course the government of China will follow. The continent of China is big enough that it could follow all the possible paths.

These are strange times. As China's state imposed on a continent trembles, the continent of Europe sees the proto-imperial European Union trying to impose a state on a continent. With a Brexit loss before the prefix can be fully stripped from the title.

And in Russia, an empire already partially stripped of imperial territory in 1989 and 1991 seemingly risks breaking the seams that hold its rump empire together with the enormous stress of pouring its blood and treasure into Ukraine. Will further secession and civil war follow with the regional military power Putin is bizarrely encouraging to divide potential enemies?

Of course, we can toss in Turkey trying to revive a pseudo-empire on the bones of former Ottoman reach. And the Sunni jihadis who dream of the Islamic caliphate (empire) under their control rather than the Turkish successors to the Ottoman Empire.

Hell, is Iran's "axis of resistance" just a manifestation of old Persian Empire aspirations?

Some will say America is an empire, too. But that is not the case. Oh, one might look at the rise and fall of actual empires to try to judge the rise and fall of America's global influence and alliances. But that's still a different animal with limits to how much that can inform rather than confuse. At home our federal system is a safety valve for all but the most serious inter-state disputes. States can reclaim power within the range of historically normal division of power without breaking America. And with the federal government accelerating its path to going broke, there might not be much of a struggle in the end as the federal government has no choice but to tell states to fund--or don't fund--a lot of non-core federal roles that Washington, D.C. has absorbed and created over the last 90 years.

But I digress.

The interesting thing about China's potential to break apart is the strange role of the Chinese Communist Party whose primary goal is the survival of the Chinese Communist Party. Nothing else--not even China's territorial integrity--matters in the end.

What would China look like with a fragmented civil government structure but a Chinese Communist Party that retains power? Will a rump PRC under the control of the CCP--with cells all across Chinese territory--with control of nukes then have the job of expanding its control of Chinese territory even as it works to deter significant foreign encroachment on Chinese territory in a new potential century of humiliation?

Or is is it a pipe dream of the CCP to think it can hold the center even as China's central government breaks down?

Interesting times, indeed.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

The Emperor Seeks an Empire

Macron has stepped forward as Europe's leading power in resisting Russia in Ukraine by asserting that he has not ruled out sending troops to Ukraine to help sustain Ukraine's military effort. Macron needs Europeans to follow France somewhere and Ukraine is the destination of the moment.

Macron is shifting strategy to put France in charge of the European Union:

Mr Macron, who has a fondness for disruptive grandstanding, is engaged in a power struggle with the more cautious Mr Scholz that is throwing a spanner in the Franco-German “engine” of European policymaking.

At the heart of the battle is the French president’s sudden transformation from Ukraine dove to hawk.

You may recall Macron's outreach to Russia. Even as Russia mobilized to invade Ukraine.

The "engine" for stripping off the prefix from the proto-imperial EU consisted of France exploiting German fears of learning to like a whiff of gunpowder to be the safe "guardian" to harness Germany as a compliant lever to put France in charge of an imperial EU. As the initial article observes:

Paris sees this as German trespassing on its turf. Berlin was breaking the gentleman’s agreement that is the bedrock of the Franco-German engine, one source close to Mr Macron said.

Simply put, Berlin takes the economic leadership in Europe, while Paris takes the strategic leadership. “The frontiers are now blurred and there are attempts to intrude into each other’s domain,” said the source.

But Germany is reacting to Russia's invasion of Ukraine by haltingly but clearly throwing off their post-Cold War reluctance to wield military and political power across Europe. Indeed, Germany has its champion inside the EU to expand German influence by leaning forward against Russia. 

Macron's comment on sending troops to Ukraine perhaps shakes Germany's new defense resolve (back to the first article):

It was a deeply unhelpful comment for an under-pressure leader of a country with a horror of militarism, Berlin sources said.

Macron doesn't really care about his specific policies in his Game of Thrones. He cares that other European states support France in its leadership role. As that initial article interprets Macron:

“He has a taste for transgression,” said a French source close to the president. “There’s a price to pay for spelling out his vision, but he always hopes that the others will end up following him and that history will end up proving him right.”

And right now Macron thinks standing up to Russia in Ukraine is the best way to push France to the front of the parade. And for the moment, Macron is hyping the bizarre panic over Trump for his own ends (back to the initial article):

Mr Macron, an ardently Europhile centrist, is devoted to the concept of building the EU’s “strategic autonomy” to ensure the bloc can punch its geopolitical weight independently of the US.

Hogwash. It is enough for the EU to reduce America's punch in Europe. A European punch is irrelevant.

Don't be surprised if Macron's "vision" shifts again if nobody marches behind Macron. There are many paths to crowning himself emperor of the EU.

UPDATE: Shifting his vision in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... :

Macron’s game plan ahead of the EU election for tackling the National Rally’s unrelenting rise was to dramatize the fight against the far-right party, emphasizing the clash of ideologies and the Russian threat, according to several French officials. The twin aim was to beat abstention and mobilize Macron’s own voters, and also dissuade voters from turning to rival pro-European candidates such as the Socialist Raphaël Glucksmann and the ecologists.

But several weeks into the campaign, the strategy has failed to deliver, according to recent polls, and alarm bells are starting to ring.

Who knows what Macron will fervently believe in next? I mean, other than his own political ambitions.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Russia's Doomsday Policy

Russia will rely on early use of nukes to make up for their shattered ground forces currently tied down fighting to conquer Ukraine. Also, do Russia's nukes work better than the rest of their military? Russia certainly needs potential enemies to believe that.

Russia says it will use nukes if, among other triggers, there is "aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy." 

This really isn't anything new. Russia's conventional military was too small for defending its long vulnerable border even before Russia massed nearly all its ground combat power to invade Ukraine and wrecked it over the last two years:

Lowering the threshold for Russian use of nuclear weapons is an admission of conventional military weakness. For all the unjustified hype about Russian "hybrid warfare" Russia has weak conventional military options against any but the weakest and closest opponents.

Putin's war on Ukraine has intensified the stupidity.

And it will take time to rebuild Russia's conventional military:

“Moscow’s military forces will face a multi-year recovery after suffering extensive equipment and personnel losses during the Ukraine conflict. Moscow will be more reliant on nuclear and counterspace capabilities for strategic deterrence as it works to rebuild its ground force,” the Intelligence Community estimated in its annual threat assessment.

Although the Russian Ministry of Defense has announced plans to enlarge the military, it will take the Kremlin years to rebuild its previous combat capacity, let alone enlarge it. And it’s not just about numbers – rather, to increase its capabilities, the Russian military will need modern weapon systems and to provide adequate training to its soldiers.

That will be a scary time for Russia that will likely see more chest-beating and flinging nuclear poo to buy time to complete the rebuilding. Because do Russia's nukes actually work?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

The Winter War of 2022 Bets Putin's Life On One More Bloody Offensive

Putin counts on the West helping Ukraine too little to deny Putin a victory over Ukraine. It may be a high stakes game with Putin's life on the line.

Russia is preparing to attack again this spring and summer to exploit the halt in American military aid to Ukraine. But Russia is looking beyond Ukraine. If this is true, Russia has serious strategic problems:

[Estonia thinks] Russia is currently attempting to restructure and expand in anticipation of a possible war with NATO in the next 10 years, and other Western intelligence agencies have previously made similar assessments. ISW assesses that the ongoing recreation of the Leningrad and Moscow military districts (LMD and MMD) and efforts to create at least a dozen new formations are likely preparations for a potential future large-scale conventional war against NATO.

The problem is that Russia created tensions with NATO that prior to Putin's strategery, was busy disarming. 

The problem is that I think Putin was counting on being able to taunt NATO without paying a price to conceal Russian appeasement of China until Russia could openly face China's threats.

The problem is that the last dash to that policy shift has died in Ukraine rather than providing the short and glorious victory that would allow Russia to pivot to Asia.

And while Putin puffs up his chest, beats it, and flings poo at NATO (as I noted in earlier posts), Putin is bluffing:

Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited.

I suspect this is part of the bluff that Russia is close to defeating Ukraine. And while America's pause in aiding Ukraine is making this a race Putin could win, I'd bet Russian talk of invading NATO soon is part of an information operation designed to demoralize the West into thinking Russia's victory over Ukraine is so inevitable that Putin is already preparing his next war. Maybe that gets NATO to build up their stockpiles rather than send weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.

The bigger problem for Putin is that with Russia's ground forces committed to fighting in Europe--and bleeding out and burning up all over Ukraine--Putin had to bring up the weapon of last resort--nukes--to remind China that Russia has options if China pounces on a weakened and distracted Russia.

The problem with that is who knows if Russia's nukes work any better than the rest of their military? 

Putin has given Russia the options of preparing to fight a two-front war; or continue its pointless alienation of NATO by deepening and extending Russia's vassal status in China's orbit to avoid a two-front war. For as long as China allows that to go on.

Just how deeply will China make Russia bow down to keep China's territorial claims dormant?

Bravo.

The problem for Putin is that Russians might start noticing how badly Putin has effed up Russia's national defense by invading Ukraine. And wonder if it is bad luck or a plot to destroy Russia. Sure, it's fun to threaten to hang the Estonian president (back to the original ISW link):

Medvedev threatened Rinkēvičs’ life in a post on March 15 and claimed that Russia will hang Rinkēvičs alongside the current “Nazi” Ukrainian government for “wish[ing] for the death of Russia.”

Just who is actually killing Russia these days? And who will build the gallows?

The costs of the Ukraine War have been a lot higher for Russia than expected in terms of weapons and men lost as well as the continuing damage from sanctions. Vladimir Putin is finding himself confronted by a larger number of Russians hostile to the war efforts. This now includes many wealthy Russians and those that run many of the major industries. These men and women see more clearly how much the war is costing Russia and their chatter is increasingly critical of President Putin.

I mean, providing Putin and his loyal cronies some rough justice may be the only way Russia has to escape a generation of Western punishment for destroying the long peace in Europe. And the only way for Russia to truly pivot to Asia to resist a China that may see an isolated and weakened Russia as a target without limits rather than a partner.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

UPDATE (Wednesday): ISW seems to agree with me:

The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation[.]

And to put the cherry on the cake of Putin's bloody stupidity, ISW notes this point that is so obvious that I never consciously made the connection:

The Kremlin has had continuous opportunities to choose peace, including a choice not to invade Ukraine – a country that Putin considered to be so militarily unthreatening that Putin assessed he could conquer it in a matter of days.

Maybe Russians will make that connection, eh? And look for lamp posts.

UPDATE (Sunday): Can't argue with the man:

The Washington Post published excerpts of an interview with Zelensky on March 29 in which Zelensky stated that Ukraine will not be able to defend its territory without American support, as Ukraine currently relies on air defense systems and missiles, electronic warfare jammers, and 155mm artillery shells from the United States.

It seems like American aid could be resumed after Congress votes in April. I hope our military has the first shipments locked and loaded, ready to push them into Ukraine as soon as legislation is signed.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Weekend Data Dump

I'd give good money if India would summarily hang pirates when caught: "The Indian navy said late Saturday that it had taken control of a bulk carrier hijacked by Somali pirates and evacuated the 17 crew members on the vessel." Who would complain? Racists? Who would take notice? Aspiring pirates.

You think you hate and distrust the media enough. You do not: Trump warned of a auto industry "bloodbath" if he loses in November. Media outlets truncated that to bizarrely claim threats of physical violence if he loses. That "extinction level" media collapse can't come too soon. Tip to Instapundit.

China inspires a reaction: "By the end of March, the Philippines expects to have its first BrahMos anti-ship cruise missiles, and Japan plans to begin training its personnel to operate Tomahawk missiles."

Attrition: "During two years of fighting in Ukraine, Russia lost nearly 9,000 tanks and other armored vehicles."

Greece purchased this from Israel: "Fire Weaver Fire Control system uses Orbiter 3 UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) to seek out targets and automatically have a Spike NLOS missile launched from an aircraft, ground vehicle or ship to hit the target." It distributes missiles against as many targets as possible.

The TDS is obvious after taking Trump's "invitation" to Russia to invade NATO defense laggards at face value: "The center is not holding!" FFS. His "solution" of European "strategic autonomy" is the real threat to NATO. As if the EU wants to defend Europe! Please stop trying to make things worse.

Are we heading to "stagflation" (inflation and a stagnating economy)? Tip to Instapundit.

Eric continues his work defending the destruction of Saddam Hussein's regime. I especially appreciate his dogged efforts to kill the repeated efforts to claim America failed to prove Saddam had WMD when the responsibility was on Saddam to prove he had disarmed. Saddam did not do that even at the last moment. 

Screwing the pooch: "Retired Gen. Mark Milley, the former Joint Chiefs of Staff chair, is set to testify on Tuesday at a high-stakes House committee hearing on the Biden administration’s 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan." Shame on Milley for not resigning in protest before--or after in disgrace--for that debacle.

Driving a stake into the A-10 heart: "The Air Force is hoping to retire more A-10 Warthogs in 2025, as the service continues to readjust its overall strategies and future aircraft based on China's growing threat in the Pacific." Remember, the issue was never about the plane the Air Force hated. It's a matter of trust.

A mob--not a fleet--sails around the Red Sea looking serious. Unity of command is neglected. That Red Sea Regatta won't end well for the West.

Back to the future: "Russia has introduced a wire controlled UAV in order to have a UAV that is immune to electronic jamming. The new UAV has a spool containing ten kilometers of thin fiber-optic wire connected to a human-operated control station."

The plan: "Russia has already been moving Ukrainian civilians it controls to different parts of Russia where it will be easier to exterminate Ukrainian culture over a few generations. Russians are then moved into the territory formerly occupied by those Ukrainians to make those areas very Russian." And more.

Via Instapundit, the difference between old liberals and modern progressives is reflected in Justice Brown's concern that the First Amendment might prevent the government from censoring speech. Her inability to recognize a woman is nothing compared to her inability to recognize our fundamental rights.

The Army likely underestimates the number needed: "The Army’s 2025 budget request includes $13.5 million for hand-held anti-drone devices to equip a division and $54.2 million for backpack-size jammers[.]"

LOL! "The United States’ grand strategy of inhibition is a linchpin of American foreign policy and is rooted in the belief that preventing nuclear proliferation is crucial for global security." We were unwilling to destroy North Korea's nuclear program when we could; and of course, Democrats looove Iran's mullahs.

This is a problem for this summer and the next decade: "Expecting a war that would only last for several months, the Russian military is quickly losing its most capable troops, including special operations forces, elite naval infantry, and most of all, a decimated officer corp." And Russia lacks NCOs.

"Russian authorities have systematically tried to eradicate the Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar national identities in Ukraine over the past 10 years by interrupting, limiting, and prohibiting the use of the Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar languages." Russia suppresses speech and religious/cultural rights, too.

Lubrication is wise: "Putin wasted no time buttering up China after his election victory[.]" Friction is not Putin's friend. Especially when you consider the price Xi may demand as China bends Russia over the couch and has its way with it. 

We had another anniversary of the Iraq War. I guess this recent post of mine summarizes my view of how an obvious victory is bizarrely treated as an unprecedented American strategic catastrophe. 

Cuba seemingly just wallows along on socialist misery that its people endure with no end in sight. But is that true? Cuba has even managed (via Instapundit) to ef up its own worthless currency.

Milley said it was a clusterfuck because "decisions made outside the Defense Department led to the chaos and violence of the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, but also emphasized that no single mistake can be blamed for the failures." He is both right and wrong. He also failed in his duty.

WTAF: "The military grocery stores in the Pacific are among the first to announce that they're eliminating single-use grocery bags." We know bans are counter-productive. But who knew that the climate rather than China is the "pacing challenge" our military is really focused on defeating?

But I thought global warming would make the Arctic an ice-free posting? "The Navy is rolling out a Navy Arctic Service Medal this year, serving as an extension of the existing Navy Arctic Service Ribbon." Won't that be like getting a Maryland Service Medal?

Well thank God! "'Maximizing [gender] integration, at the platoon level, develops the foundation of a successfully integrated force,' according to the report." If only the Marines had that advantage on Guadalcanal. The campaign would have been over in a fortnight!

Unless this is really for the U.S. Army, this should be a low-priority for Bahrain's security: "The US State Department today approved the potential sale of 50 M1 Abrams battle tanks and other equipment to the Gulf nation of Bahrain[.]" I get Bahrain's worry. But Iranian subversion is a bigger threat.

And now for something completely different:

 

I don't spend time worrying about the politically driven collapse of America. We're a big country. We've always had such survivalists. With social media it's easier to see. What I worry about is that media-driven Insurrection Porn is used by governing progressives to justify oppression. Tips to Instapundit.

NASAMS proves its value.

Huh: "A Texas law that empowers local police to arrest and deport migrants accused of entering the U.S. illegally has again been put on hold, just hours after the U.S. Supreme Court allowed its enforcement." States once enforced immigration. The feds took over. Now the feds do nothing and deny states the right.

I worry about Navy shipbuilding plans that plan to shrink the fleet in the near term while planning a long-term expansion. I guess I assume only the near-term plan provisions are likely to be followed. The Navy continues to lose its war with math.

A string of outposts along the DMZ during the Vietnam War wasn't the disaster this author calls it. Outposts are Border Defense 101 that reduce casualties and identify penetrations. But reserves are needed to react and counter-attack. The strategic confusion was giving the NVA a sanctuary north of the DMZ.

Good: "The US Department of Defence is investing $7m in a hydrometallurgical plant to secure nickel and cobalt for the defence industrial base."

Building up to what? "Taiwan's foreign minister said on Wednesday that China has built 'enormous' military bases on three islands surrounding Taiwan's main holding in the South China Sea[.]" Taiwan's main holding is Itu Aba. I've focused on the more vulnerable Pratas Island.

Optimist that I am, assuming America resumes military aid to Ukraine, will our pause have achieved this? "Ukraine’s European partners continue efforts to stand up significant initiatives to provide military support to Ukraine." Would Europe has stepped up without the pause?

I see we're going from America caused chaos in the Middle East trying to impose democracy on a region without a history of it to American policy deprived the Middle East of peace and democracy after World War II. WTAF? The author is against Israel, too, naturally.

Ukraine's cyber militia at war with Russia. Right now they are a cyber militia working with the government. As I wrote a couple decades ago, what happens when there are cyber freebooters with their own foreign policy? And what comes next in the real world?

I've long said Trump has been trying to strengthen NATO--not wreck it: "Donald Trump has said the U.S. will '100 percent' remain in NATO under his leadership so long as European countries 'play fair.'" Euros have their own imperial reasons for stoking fear of Trump.

Well, yes: "Zelenskyy said in his nightly address Monday that it is in Ukraine’s strategic interest to expand its [defense] production potential every year." 

No brain damage in "Havana Syndrome" cases. I'm not shocked. I doubted weapons were involved. I thought maybe it was from eavesdropping equipment. But it may have been mass hysteria. 

I'm not exactly against planning for the post war after the Winter War of 2022 "ends". But I worry that it pushes down the priority of helping Ukraine win the war.

Oh joy: "Navy cargo ships ... are poised to head to the eastern Mediterranean Sea with more than 250 sailors to help build a humanitarian aid pier off the Gaza Strip[.]" Now our Navy works for Iran, too. I'm sure that grateful Iranians will halt Houthi attacks on Navy ships in the Red Sea.

The Czechs are doing good work: "Czech President Petr Pavel said in February that Prague had identified 500,000 155mm artillery shells and 300,000 122mm rounds outside the European Union that could be sent to Ukraine if necessary funds were secured." Let's get our rockets and 155mm shells flowing again.

Unlike canceling student loans for wealthy Democrats, I'd be fine forgiving this: "Democrats in both chambers suggest they’re willing to support Ukraine aid in the form of a loan, an idea that’s gaining steam with Kyiv’s GOP champions as they scramble to end Congress’s deadlock and help Ukraine[.]"

Interesting: "American military aid to Ukraine included a shipping container size 3D-printing UAV factories for Ukraine." 

China isn't scaring opponents: "Australia and the UK have signed a defence and security treaty and announced £2.4bn in Australian investment in Rolls-Royce’s nuclear reactor facilities as the two nations tighten ties in the face of rising Chinese power."

Duty, honor, country: "An increasingly large segment of the population is becoming convinced that the government and its institutions no longer share their values. A story about 'Duty, Honor, Country' being removed from [West Point's] mission statement at this particular moment just adds to this sense." A justifiable sense.

I suspect this will help Ukraine successfully introduce F-16s: "Ukrainian drone strikes against targets within Russia are also likely increasing pressures on available Russian air defense assets." I also suspect Ukraine will get F-16s sooner than media reports indicate. It would be smart to get some surprise. We can do that, right?

The PLA's new-car smell is fading: "strategic nuclear weapons, warship production and combat aircraft production programs were crippled by corruption ... many if not most warships and modern combat aircraft could not operate in combat, or at all[.]" China has a lot of work to meet a 2027 deadline. Are we sufficiently better off?

Let's go Brandon: "More than $62.5 billion in student loan debt has been discharged for nearly 871,000 public service workers since President Biden took office." They get secure jobs and don't have to pay back loans. Ef me for being a responsible student and parent. Democrats hate and punish responsible people.

If surviving was a higher priority than killing Jews, Hamas would surrender: "a new poll shows that support for Hamas — and for murdering Jews — remains as strong as ever in what's left of Gaza." But Gazans prefer more pain. Enjoy what they clearly want, I say. Overall, Israel is fighting lawfully.

Indeed: "The Democrats' transition from being dismissive about Russia to finding everything about its government reprehensible was, of course, the product of political expediency." I've long noted that odd transition. And I'm totally mostly over them calling me a fascist for wanting to defeat the Soviet Union.

We all know this was deliberate: "Around 200,000 migrant deportation cases have been thrown out under President Biden because the administration failed to file paperwork before court hearings, according to a new report." Failed? They spelled "refused" wrong. Biden is killing rule of law. Tip to Instapundit.

Biden may cut off Israel despite Israel following the rules of war in Gaza. And Biden would welcome a Ukrainian defeat--as long as he can blame it on Republicans. Biden was fine with losing Afghanistan. Hell, Biden won't defend America's borders from illegals pouring in. But Taiwan is special to him, right?

I asked for a senior military purge after our Afghanistan Skedaddle Debacle. I thought that was my first time calling for that. It was not. Pity we didn't get an earlier purge. I worry we won't get any purge.

The Newspeak Dictionary was updated. Tip to Instapundit.

Funny how Biden's "stutter" never appeared before he went senile. For many decades it has been clear he is a malevolent mediocrity. More recently it is clear he is corrupt. But a stutterer? Nope.

Can Russia generate the recruits it needs to maintain an offensive this year?

Sure, Russia's military is not a paper tiger. It isn't very good, but it can grip you and bombard you. And Russia has done that to Ukraine for two years now without cracking. Will it be enough to win the war? In part that's up to the West--particularly America. Is it enough to defeat alerted NATO armies? I doubt it.

Republicans are politicizing the military? Seriously? "If successful, such tactics would transform the military from the nonpartisan force it is today to an ally of one faction of the GOP." The problem is woke-friendly senior leadership that finds many substitutes for victory. But it's Foreign Affairs, so whatever. 

Russia helped persuade Niger to eject American counter-jihadi forces. Of course Russia did. Russia wants chaos in Africa because it considers a flow of refugees into Europe to be a weapon to undermine European states. 

The defense funding bill buys a little time for Congress to resume military aid to Ukraine: "The bill retains $300 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which allows the Pentagon to place contracts for equipment to send Kyiv."

European leaders want to use interest income from frozen Russian assets to arm Ukraine. It could be $3 billion per year. Which isn't enough. But every bit matters now as Russia gears up for an offensive. 

Interesting: "Taiwan’s defense minister has hinted that U.S. troops have been training the Taiwanese military on outlying islands that would be on the front lines of a conflict with its neighbor." Although if I was planning the invasion of Taiwan I'd island hop past those outlying islands and go right for the jugular.

Force Design 2030: "A 2018 wargame Berger observed at the Naval War College ... indicated to him that Marine forces needed to be lighter, more mobile and positioned closer to the possible sites of conflict in the Indo-Pacific and China[.]" Perhaps. But why do Marines globally need that change?

Good: "France is expanding its training programs for the Ukrainian military in 2024." It would be nice if they had weapons, too. 

Russian losses so far in Ukraine. 

Regulated immigration on terms that help America as much as the immigrants is important. Why do Democrats support mass illegal immigration that denies America the chance to set the terms? Why, for God's sake, does Biden hate America? He's destroying the foundation of America.

This is definitely a new factor: "a third age of drone warfare, defined by autonomy, saturation attacks, increased precision and range, and full-spectrum drone warfare across land, sea, and air." But let's see if counter-measures deny their elevation to defining an "age."

As I wonder if attack helicopters are not cost-effective, China has a new AH-64 clone: "the suggestion is that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) wants to rapidly field a heavier and more capable attack helicopter than those it currently operates." Of course, China may have only one mission in mind.

Comparing the F-16 Ukraine will get against Russia's Su-35 is interesting. But air power isn't a battle of aircraft technical characteristics, as the author ultimately suggests. Compare Ukraine's NATO-supported air power system to Russia's system. 

Yeah, the idea that some NATO states could directly intervene in Ukraine and then call on NATO support when they can't handle fighting Russia is insane. Let's arm and sustain Ukraine, which is willing to fight, before we start thinking about directly fighting Russia, eh?

Or maybe because it's a cycle of chaos-aid-chaos: "Haiti is experiencing a governance crisis that could soon lead to a significant humanitarian disaster. But efforts to send an international peacekeeping force have been stymied by chaotic planning and a dispute between [Biden and Congressional Republicans]."

A "summer of love" for Cuba's "Communist government [that] has few options to significantly improve living conditions before the oppressively hot summer months, which are usually when most protests happen and when electricity demand soars, economists say"? Will Biden try to save Cuba's communists?

This seems about right these days: "any position that’s not crazy and self-destructive is now 'far right.'" Liberals once staunchly defended individual rights and free speech. Progressives kill those rights.

So it's a "mostly peaceful" invasion? How long until the "fiery" stage? Tip to Instapundit.

Every time China efs with the Philippines, it makes it more likely America can use this facility: "The U.S. military will not be involved in development of a port in the Philippines' remote northernmost islands near Taiwan[.]"

Endorsed: "passing omnibus spending bills that are over a thousand pages before any of the people voting have read them is a horrible combination of irresponsible and insane. " 

ISIL killed 143 Russians in a terror attack near Moscow: "Militant Islamist group Islamic State claimed responsibility for Friday's attack, the deadliest in Russia for 20 years." I offer my sympathies. But I'm confused. Russia supports Hamas. And didn't invade Iraq. Why would jihadis hate Russia??

Democratic efforts to blame our open border on Trump is moronic and defies reality. Democrats demonize Trump for wanting a border wall. Democrats offer sanctuary and refuse to defend the border. The stalled border bill Democrats want only proposes to process the flow more efficiently.

Anti-access/area denial in action: "Russia can no longer use the Black Sea for commerce or moving supplies to Russian forces in areas near the Black Sea coast."

The Army would like extra money for drone defense: "both the US Army’s and US Central Command’s wishlists for fiscal 2025 prominently feature requests for more money for systems to shoot down those aerial threats." Unless we develop area defense shields, I think we need fighter drones (Army magazine).

I grant the author this point: "Just because U.S. adversaries may be cooperating doesn’t mean they are engaged in a global conspiracy against the United States." I've argued as much. But they are all enemies. Although to be fair, the original Axis wasn't unified, either, and took a lot to finally crush.

China and America can't really decisively strike each other's homelands, so we are included: "wars between great powers are rarely short and sharp. They are more often long, grueling slogs of attrition that tend to expand horizontally, ensnaring other regions in their wake." Troops are rarely home by Christmas.

Good question: "Why is the current administration so stubbornly bent on propping up a sclerotic, untrustworthy regime in Somalia with little legitimacy and even less effectiveness?" We blame colonial borders for Africa's woes--not that South Sudan ended chaos. But why not let Somalia formally break up?

I actually like this given that arrested but not convicted people will find the pictures online forever: "The Murrieta Police Department has been posting hilarious arrest and lineup photos with suspects’ faces replaced by Lego heads to comply with a woke state law protecting offenders’ rights." Via Instapundit. 

Total war: "The [Russian] missile and drone attack hit a vast dam over the Dnipro river, killed at least five people and left more than a million others without power[.]"

Adebahr clearly wants to deal with rather than defeat mullah-run, long-time enemy Iran: "The regime remains fragile at home but skillfully uses every opportunity on the international scene to increase its clout. Like a giant with feet of clay, as per the Biblical reference to the Persian empire of the antiquity[.]"

Hmmm: "The Vietnamese Communist Party has accepted the resignation of President Vo Van Thuong, the government said on Wednesday, in a sign of political turmoil that could hurt foreign investors’ confidence in the country."

I'm sure we'll file the objection appropriately: "China slammed the United States for interfering in its border dispute with India, after Washington said it recognized the disputed Arunachal Pradesh as a part of Indian territory."

How does this help China gain influence in the region? "Houthi rebels in Yemen ... have reached a deal with Russia and China to allow safe passage for their ships[.]" Which means Iran won't supply targeting information about Chinese and Russian ships, basically. Are Gulf Arab states happy with this? Get a room.

I'd like to think we could have reacted faster in a direct war: "We still have a peacetime defense industry in an age of war and rising risk, although governments and Western organizations are at least recognizing the problem." But we failed that test already. We need to be the arsenal of democracy again. 

Huh, I ran across a 2013 post that rejected what sure looks like the Unicorn-reliant, embryonic Marine Corps Force Design 2030. My comment then applies now: "There's a difference between being visionary and just seeing things."

AI will make it easier to gin up compelling reasons to go to war. I'd say that people might react to that by eventually shrugging their shoulders when real reasons to fight exist, but so many progressives deny Hamas raped and murdered its way into Israel on October 7, 2023, that it probably makes no difference. 

Huh: "Islamic State released on Saturday a photo of what it said were the four attackers behind a shooting rampage that killed at least 143 people in a concert hall near Moscow on Friday, the militant group's Amaq news agency said on Telegram." IS has a way to go before matching how many Russians Putin has killed. 

Maybe: "Belarusian authorities may have constructed a nuclear warhead storage site for Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. ... The Federation of American Scientists assessed that these upgrades closely resemble protections on Russian nuclear warhead storage sites." Or maybe they know what we look for.

South Korea's "K2 [main battle tank] armor includes metal and ERA armor in addition to an APS (Active Protections System)[.]" I assume it doesn't have the depleted uranium armor of our most well protected Abrams. Poland will build the K2 at home.

Interesting: South Korea fears North Korea might conduct a Hamas-style attack. Also, North Korean officials used substandard materials and production methods on their artillery shells (half the ammo sold to Russia was bad) because they didn't think North Korea was foolish enough to attack South Korea. 

Russia exports oil and not refined products, right? "The U.S. has pressed Ukraine to halt drone strikes on Russian energy facilities, fearing that it could provoke massive retaliation and drive up global oil prices."  Ah, Smart Diplomacy!® We really believe we can engineer a nuanced end to the war. Tip to Instapundit.

Hmmm: "The Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are less about POL than reduction of nitrogen,ammonia and methanol feed stocks for Russian explosives and propellants for it's artillery and missile production." Outside of my lanes. Sounds plausible. Tip to Instapundit.

American pressure on Ukraine: "The U.S. is concerned that targeting Russia’s energy facilities will impact the Kremlin’s oil production capacity and drive up global prices — ahead of a knife-edge presidential election[.]" Pressuring Ukraine for domestic political purposes is impeachable, according to Democrats.

Manufacturing "Islamophobia" and denying anti-Semitism. You think you distrust and hate our media enough. You do not. Tip to Instapundit.

Yes, Eisenhower was right that American strength depended on defense industry and a robust free-market economy. Which is why it is backassward to say Eisenhower was against the military-industrial complex.

I heard in a podcast that Biden has stacked military advisory boards with his woke activists notwithstanding statutes that mandate political diversity. Go woke, troops croak. That's on my radar, now.

A reality-based policy? "Long-term Israeli-Palestinian peace requires, among other things, a destroyed Hamas, an overhauled Palestinian Authority, and a spirit of co-existence that’s nurtured among the Palestinian people." That's basically what I called for early--but with a contrast to forestall complaints.

Who knew telling half your audience they are deplorable Nazis would have consequences? Tip to Instapundit.

They'll fail to solve both: "President Biden and the press keep raising alarms about a climate crisis that his policies can’t do much about. Yet in the meantime they’re ignoring how government climate policies are contributing to a looming electric-grid crisis that is more urgent and could be avoided." Tar. Feathers.