Do Not Let Narva, Estonia Become a Gray Area of Resolve

Recent Russian aggression against NATO, commonly called "hybrid" war, has been most evident in the Baltic Sea where NATO is reacting to defend critical infrastructure from Russian attacks (that Russia denies carrying out). Will that aggression and denial come ashore at Narva, Estonia?

While NATO is responding to Russian attacks in the Baltic Sea, the threat is broader:

Moscow has long been waging a shadow war against the military alliance, but the war in Ukraine has led to an escalation of hybrid, or gray-zone, attacks on NATO since the conflict began. ...

"It is an inherent part of Russian strategic thinking. The military is only part of it," Appathurai, the NATO secretary general's primary advisor on hybrid threats, told BI. "Their aim is to achieve political victory using the full spectrum of tools."

I worry that Russia could escalate their "little green men" attacks with an invasion of Estonia that captures Narva, posing as separatists pining for the embrace of Mother Russia. I explored in a recent Army article that threat and the necessary Army response within a NATO effort to deter or defeat such an invasion.

Failure to clearly win could break NATO by making the Article V defense guarantee appear hollow. 

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The Art of the Deal or the Art of the Kneel?

We seem to be violating some basic terms of negotiating by ruling out things that Russia should fear if they don't agree to reasonable terms for ending Russia's war on Ukraine for good. But I admit that the image for diplomatic purposes can be different than the terms of a deal, whether that is America's military role in NATO or a peace deal in the Winter War of 2022.

Well of course Europe isn't the highest priority theater:

In just one speech by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth this week, the most powerful member of NATO has thrown the world’s biggest military alliance into disarray, raising troubling questions about America’s commitment to European security.

Hegseth told almost 50 of Ukraine ’s Western backers on Wednesday that he had joined their meeting “to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.”

It's the economy-of-force theater. It long has been. We've been reducing forces in Europe since we won the Cold War, excepting a small bump since Russia invaded Ukraine on a large scale in 2022. Say, here's the visual:

And affordably preserving the shield that Europe is for America with so many fewer troops requires keeping Russia as far east as possible. 

Further, this overly open declaration of strategic reality will be exaggerated to fuel the European Union objective to erase American influence over Europe through NATO. The EU believes it should never let a faux crisis go to waste. Arghh!  

That said, we should not have given up negotiating assets--ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine, ruling out a NATO role to guarantee a "peace" deal, and minimizing the need for American troops in Europe or even Ukraine--before we even talk to Russia about ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Sure, we don't want to be too tied down in Europe. And Russia surely knows that. But make Russia give concessions to get our concessions! Don't kneel before Russia bearing gifts! If we do, Russia will demand more.

That is not the Art of the Ukraine Deal. We have to be smarter if we want to provide peace to keep Europe as an economy-of-force front rather than just get a period of Russia reloading to begin another war. 

Although of course I recognize the need to at least appear to Russians as an honest broker so any deal doesn't look like America dictating terms. So I don't take administration language that doesn't scream "Hitler!!" at Putin as a sign that American policy is pro-Putin. Ditto on the need to appear willing to walk away to get our European NATO allies to do more.

So we'll see. I withhold judgment until I see details when diplomacy--with Russia and with our NATO allies--unfolds.

UPDATE: Via Instapundit, just calm the ef down and stop letting your fears do your thinking.

Sound advice that I believe I laid out above despite my own worries.

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The Winter War of 2022 Looks to the Next War

Russia is seeking to rebuild its military to prepare for conflict before 2030, but the slaughter of its ground forces over nearly three years of the ongoing Winter War of 2022 makes Russians less than eager to die for their country in a foreign land. If Putin does expand his military, who will it fight? I'm tired of thinking Russia might need an "exit ramp" out of the war. That train pulled out of the station by the end of 2022, as far as I'm concerned. Russia needs to be defeated in Ukraine. Or there will be another war that Russia starts, somewhere, and sooner than we hope.

Strategypage addresses Russian ambitions to rebuild its military:

Russia is preparing its combat forces for battles that might or might not occur between now and 2030. Russian forces are still locked in combat with Ukrainians and leader Vladimir Putin is vague about how and when this war will end. The new American president wants to end the war quickly but the Russians are not responding.

The Russians hope their silence will provoke Western concessions before ever sitting down across a table. Our response should be silence. And more weapons for Ukraine. Because Strategypage also notes this:

What Russia is doing is building a lot more weapons and trying to recruit more troops. Few Russian men are willing to serve in the military, despite high pay and large payments when they agree to enlist. Potential Russian recruits know that going to Ukraine is often a death sentence. They know this because so many Russian soldiers have come back in coffins or not at all. The government makes large payments to families of dead soldiers. Russian military age men are reluctant to join the military, even with the financial incentives. Over a million military age men have left the country and those still in Russia avoid the recruiters, who often visit workplaces to arrest men who refused to cooperate with recruiters.

Ukraine is suffering from an infantry shortage. But Russia clearly has problems, too:

There are still about 200,000 Russian troops in Ukraine and most are on the defensive. Ukraine keeps its casualties down by using its armed and camera- equipped drones for most of the fighting. Currently about 90 percent of Russian casualties are caused by Ukrainian drones.  

Russia claws forward because Ukraine's drones don't hold ground. But Russia's "human wave" attacks are generally done in small groups. This isn't the "human wave" assault of your imagination of past massed assaults by armies that truly had no practical limits on manpower and didn't care about losses. 

With only 200,000 Russian troops inside Ukraine, the idea that Russia can expend men without worry is clearly wrong. Russia wants to appear that way, but I suspect Putin has constructed a Potemkin Horde to bluff his way to a victory. And Russian talk of rebuilding its military is all about convincing the West that Russia must be unstoppable now if Russia is already planning for the next war.

I also suspect that Trump's talk of Putin caring about ending the bloodshed of the war and Trump's claim of "millions" of deaths rather than the hundreds of thousands in reality are an attempt to push past Putin's censorship that prevents the people of Russia from knowing about the high costs of the war they are waging. 

Despite years of warnings, it doesn't sound like America intends to abandon Ukraine:

Vance stated during a press conference following the meeting that the United States remains committed to ending the war and achieving a "durable, lasting peace" in Ukraine and not the "kind of peace that's going to have Eastern Europe in conflict just a couple years down the road."

But I'll wait to see the Definitions Section, of course.

We should make sure Russia loses this war so a next foreign war is less likely. 

But yeah, at this point I would consider a deal that concedes Russian control of pre-2022 occupied territory in parts of the Donbas and Crimea; and NATO strengthening of Ukraine's ability to defeat Russia if Russia attacks again--including battling Ukrainian corruption--as a victory for the West. Face it, after three years of bloodshed and suffering, Ukrainians won't die to get 2014 borders. Hell, Ukrainians might accept a ceasefire-in-place. Ideally, a deal based on the pre-war line of control could include making Russia quietly (and deniably) pay to rebuild Ukraine.* Putin's control of the state's security apparatus and media will allow him to boast of this great achievement. And who will dispute him?

*When I wrote that post, Russia's offensive had basically culminated. Their ground forces were shattered. I wrongly hoped Ukraine had reserves to launch a counteroffensive. As weeks and then months passed without a counteroffensive I began to worry that Russia was getting the most valuable commodity in war--time. Russia got the time to recover and prepare, and the much-delayed and openly telegraphed Ukrainian counteroffensive failed in summer 2023. So we have what we have.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

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Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

Zelensky stated “on February 7 that thousands of North Korean troops have returned to active combat in Kursk Oblast after a brief pause.”

Russia equips its BM-21s with crew-protection armor, anti-drone mesh for the rocket section, and electronic warfare system. Add an active protection system and that defines drone point defense.

Hmmm: “Senior Iranian military leaders have urged Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in recent months to approve the construction of a nuclear weapon, according to an unspecified Iranian official speaking to the Telegraph.” I suspect a decision to proceed means they already have nukes.

Japan is increasing its defense budget but relies on imports for a lot of defense equipment.

The Germans haven’t managed to down them or figure out where they come from: “A Bundeswehr spokesperson reportedly told Süddeutsche Zeitung that the German military has observed an increase in drones flying over German military facilities in an unspecified timeframe.”

Russia will reconstitute its military: "A partially reconstituted Russian military will still pose a significant threat to U.S. and Western interests in the European theater." That early threat is what I wrote about in Army magazine here.

Drone Line project: "the Ukrainian military will 'scale up' five existing drone regiments and brigades in the Ukrainian military and border guard service and will integrate infantry and drones into a single strike system, which will enable Ukrainian forces to create [defensive] kill zones 10 to 15 kilometers deep[.]" 

Is France's quasi-empire in Africa over? 

Ponzi scheme? "China has numerous economic problems, but the worst has to do with real estate debt and 200 million unneeded housing units."

Crawl, walk, run? "The Missile Defense Agency is moving quickly to gather ideas for President Donald Trump’s proposed 'Iron Dome for America' and hopes to make progress on some within the next two years." The need is there. 

Seeking modular anti-mine unmanned surface vessels: "The MCM Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) is central to this effort, a diesel-powered craft designed for various operational launching platforms, including the LCS, vessels of opportunity, or even shore locations."

That's just swell: "A Chinese spy balloon that crossed over the United States in 2023 was packed with American technology that could have enabled it to spy on Americans, according to two sources with direct knowledge of a technical analysis conducted by the U.S. military." Why bother with TikTok already here?

Hamas lets the world know it has not been defeated. TDR has film:

 

Fort Bragg is back. Named after another Bragg. 

The Dutch also work on logistics to sustain a NATO fight in the east.

More active duty military troops are committed to the southern border.

Britain's century-long security deal with Ukraine.

That may protect against suicide drones but traditional artillery fire would defeat it: "Russian troops have set up a 2km (1.24 mile) mesh netting 'tunnel' on a road linking Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine."

Huh: "Canada and the Philippines are in the final stages of negotiating a key defense pact that would allow their forces to hold larger military drills, said the Canadian ambassador to Manila while raising concerns over China’s 'provocative and unlawful actions' in the region." That's in addition, right!?

It's not a mothership launching anti-drone drones. It's a friggin' fighter drone launching guided weapons to knock down enemy drones. The prophecy is fulfilled.

Remember when the Army's need to be light and airmobile led to the Stryker light, wheeled vehicle? Well, it's getting up-armored. "Agile" light vehicles can't out-agile guided weapons.

I'm pretty sure it must be larger than a European corvette that's in the combat zone when it leaves port, but yes: "Eric Labs, senior analyst for naval forces and weapons at the Congressional Budget Office, said one option to expand the fleet quickly is to develop a 'small missile corvette.'" Finally! And networks!

When Trump says Putin wants to stop so many people from dying in the war, people seem to assume Trump is saying something nice about Putin. I take it as a ploy to get information into Russia that lots of Russian troops are dying in the invasion. Which is similar to what I've wanted to do to Iran. 

No Minsk III, okay?  

FFS, what are we teaching Marine officers? And if the Marines are that bad, how bad are the other service academies?

China sure hopes nothing unfortunate happens during our Taiwan Strait FONOPS. I hope we have significant overwatch.

The American secretary of defense has no plans to draw down troops in Europe, but it will certainly review needs for American forces globally. Hold what we have achieved.

The busy dozen Ukrainian F-16s: "Because the air defenses on both sides are so robust, no one has air superiority and keep their aircraft out of range of enemy air defense systems. The F-16s are most useful as another air defense weapon to destroy Russian cruise missile attacks."

If China can detect our stealth aircraft at very long range, why advertise the capability rather than ambush us in a war?

That's the big tragedy of the bloody war? "The consumption of aviation fuel has been significantly increased by the on-going war in Ukraine, according to a journal report published on Wednesday." FFS. 

Somebody (coughrussiacough) has attempted to sabotage a German corvette while under construction. It's part of a pattern of attacks.

That's sad. But it's Russia's problem now, with its new naval base there, no? 

I absolutely agree that Ukraine should be included in negotiations with Russia. Don't let Putin delegitimize Ukraine's sovereignty. We made that mistake in Afghanistan. And our European allies should participate. But if "Europe" means the EU, to Hell with that.

This involves using Purchasing Power Parity: "Based on one key economic metric, Russian defense spending eclipsed all other European countries combined last year and is projected to increase further in 2025, according to a leading defense think tank."

Diego Garcia is important for American missions in INDOPACOM and CENTCOM. Indeed. 

The Axis of Atomic a-holes. Would Pakistan help Iran get nukes? Seems unlikely. But who knows?

And it is not deployed via torpedo tubes: "China has reportedly developed a drone that can operate under water, on the surface and in the air." 

The Pentagon is establishing a counter-drone task force. How about fighter drones, as I proposed in Army?

American talk about controlling Greenland is all about denying China the ability to go from a so-called "near-Arctic state" to an Arctic state at the West's expense. 

Will South Korea again get a left-wing government that seeks closer ties with North Korea? Can America do anything to influence South Korea?

Is Bangladesh the next failed state? It's long been a bastion of Islamic calm largely unaffected--until recently--by the Islamist radicalism that seeks to define all Islam in their murderous image.

Can Europe avert a Third Congo War? Put Belgium in charge of that mission. 

The terrorist is the weapon, not the particular means to murder.

The Philippines will buy short-range Indian air defense missiles. 

China is a-hole: "A People’s Liberation Army Air Force J-16 fighter released flares 30 meters away in front of a Royal Australian Air Force P-8A Poseidon on patrol in the South China Sea on Tuesday prompting the Australian government to express its concern to China on such actions."

Good: "Within a year, the United States could have a single integrated grid of sensors from under the sea to space to bolster its air and missile defenses[.]" CONUS is not a sanctuary.

China appears to be building a new class of super carrier. I wonder what their--or the PLAN's in general--purpose is. Sea control? Distractions? Peacetime global power projection? Or is there any plan for use at all?

Sending old artillery shells to Russia paid off: "North Korea sought to acquire priceless combat experience, test weapons systems, gain access to Russian military technologies, and secure Moscow’s further assistance in countering economic sanctions." And they can rebuild their stockpile with new shells.

India (again) vows to reform its dysfunctional and corrupt defense industry. Not that we don't have problems.

China is rehearsing for an invasion of Taiwan. No doubt. That's a core objective. I have no idea when China might consider that option.

Could the B-21 be the most important warplane of the century? Well, it's early yet. But long-range anti-ship and ground attack in support of ground operations will be very important. 

Potemkin Peter the Great: "The Kremlin reportedly ordered Russian government-linked media to reduce reporting about US President Donald Trump and portray Russian President Vladimir Putin as a strong and decisive leader after the February 12 Trump-Putin phone call."

I'm doubtful our modern practice of ending a career with a single mistake is the right practice, but right now this represents the end of at least one Navy career. There will be an investigation.

The center-left proto-imperial EU fanboys (and girls) are worried their purple wall will fall: "Leftist parties in Brussels are terrified that their undemocratic cordon sanitaire against the Right will eventually collapse if the CDU-led EPP follows the lead of the German party at the European Union level." 

China's vassal, Myanmar, is getting a bit ... unsettled.

The stealthy Zumwalt trilogy is losing its empty guns and getting hypersonic missiles. 

China's "partnership without limits" doesn't prevent China from exploiting sanctioned Russia by demanding deep discounts for its purchase of Russian natural gas. But it is unreasonable for America to want access to Ukrainian strategic rare earths in exchange for our military help?

I've noticed that European media types are increasingly abandoning their thin facade of neutrality to openly--and dishonestly--stomp their feet about Trump. Note that they were in thrall to Obama. Those are the types who would run Europe if the proto-imperial European Union gets its way. 

Why didn't Israel intercept or sink those Iranian transport ships? "Iran received a large shipment of a chemical precursor for solid missile propellant from China on February 13."

China's J-36 prototype versus the operational American F-35. 

LEED to replace Nulka as a ship decoy to distract inbound missiles.

I suspect HTS lets this drag on to leverage Western aid: "Russian cargo vessels have continued to evacuate military assets from the port of Tartus as Russia negotiates its presence in Syria with the interim government. " 

Israel wants the ceasefire amended to retain five hilltop positions in southern Lebanon.

Decades of rot aren't fixed overnight: "The German army's battle-readiness is less than when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, military officials, lawmakers and defence experts told Reuters." 

I assume the defense budget can be cut without harming defense. Anything that huge has BS throughout it.

In space, no one can hear you wage war. 

I'm experimenting with shorter entries. 

Autocratic Impulses in Europe are Hard to Kill

Europe is not a bastion of freedom despite being the cradle of Western civilization, which is much broader than the democratic tradition identified with the West today. America was a major part in the modern view of the West and America is needed to preserve that definition of the Western tradition.

The danger signs in Europe aren't really from the grassroots right (allegedly "far right" as the proto-autocrats and apparatchiki of the ruling center-left political parties assert). The real threat is from the institutional and ruling left:

In a depressingly predictable judgment, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has essentially ruled that free speech stops where ‘hate speech’ begins. ...

The ECHR was originally set up to prevent states from carrying out extreme actions that all decent people agree are outside the civilised pale – including torture, death squads, wholesale suppression of anti-government speech, and so on. Yet now it has effectively decreed that governments should protect their citizens from any and all unpleasant speech.

I've noted that rule of law democracy is a post-World War II feature of Europe. And America had a role in achieving that:

It is easy to forget--and this was a useful reminder to me--that Europe with its autocracies and monarchies was not fully part of a free West (although obviously part of the Western tradition) until we rebuilt Western Europe in that template after World War II. And NATO expansion after defeating the Soviet Union was more explicit in demanding democracy and rule of law for new members.

Walking away from Europe in the belief that Europeans will naturally defend our common view of freedom founders on the reality that only American power and influence in Europe has made freedom and rule-of-law democracy a common view. A view that is fading in Europe at a horrifying pace.

UPDATE: A warning about restricting freedom of speech to only "good" speech in inter-war Germany.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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The Weight of History in China

Is China under Chinese Communist Party control immune to the weight of its history?

China has a long history from which to draw worries:

In the last few centuries, China had endured periods when independent warlords ruled portions of a divided China, and the communist Chinese feared this might happen again. For thousands of years the large East Asian area dominated by the Han variant of Chinese people was sometimes united, but more often divided into separate kingdoms.

This is one reason why I reject the idea that observers of China must predict the one direction for the development of China:

I've had my doubts about the inevitability of China's growth that so many say will supplant us as the dominant power.

So what happens when there is a systemic crisis in China? How do we predict what happens to China, then? I say we may not have to predict which outcome takes place. In a continent-sized country, all of the above could be the result.

And while I'm in the neighborhood of China's history, I think it is ridiculous to claim Chinese rulers have some near-genetic ability to make long-range plans. Patience they may have. That is not prescience.

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Victory First

War is Hell for those who fight it and those caught in the crossfire. It's best to fight to win as quickly as possible. False compassion to alleviate war at the expense of battlefield victory will backfire.

Let the pearls be clutched! 

The Trump administration is moving to abolish a Pentagon office responsible for promoting civilian safety in battlefield operations, suggesting that incoming Defense Department leaders may attempt to loosen restrictions on U.S. military operations worldwide.

This is actually the problem with the office that supposedly simply sought to"prioritize the safety of noncombatants in conflict zones":

“This certainly doesn’t prevent you from ‘taking the gloves off,’” a senior defense official said. “But what it means is, when you ‘put the gloves on’ … you’ll hit what you want to hit, and not what you don’t.”

So are the figurative American gloves on or off? When you go to war, winning within the boundaries of the rules of war should be America's practice for use of military force.

To be clear, abolishing this office doesn't abolish the rules of war. They will remain part of how America wages war, notwithstanding hyper-ventilating over American military actions. And knowing our sensitivity to civilian casualties and the bias of our media, enemies simply lie about civilian casualties.

But too often, preventing any civilian casualties (who we don't want to hit) has taken "priority" over achieving military objectives (what we want to hit). And that priority of false compassion can increase civilian casualties as well as our own troop casualties in the long run.

Civilian casualties are allowed in the rules of war as long as the losses are proportional to the military objective sought. And that's aside from the issue of legal responsibility for civilian deaths falling on the side that hides behind human shields.  

Of course civilian deaths should be minimized. Rest assured, the American military fought within the boundaries of the rules of war before that recently created office existed and will continue to do so after it is abolished. 

UPDATE: Well this is a timely article about the rules of engagement in large-scale combat operations as envisioned by the Army Training and Doctrine Command:

Considering the scale, scope, and violence of LSCO—as envisioned by TRADOC—the ROE will need to be permissive to effectively execute mission command with the appropriate level of control.

We can't have commanders frozen into inaction because they can't get a military lawyer's opinion from higher command on the legality of a strike. Understanding the ability to take risks in ROE must be joined to understanding commander's intent in the operation.

Victory first will be ugly but still within the rules of war. And the alternative could be defeat with even uglier outcomes.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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Land-Based Anti-Ship Capabilities? Who Knew?

Killing ships from the air is fun and easy. Billy Mitchell would weep with joy.

Killing ships could be fun and easy: 

A new, relatively cheap precision-guided air-launched stand-off munition the U.S. Air Force is working on could be employed against ships with the help of seeker technology from the service’s Quicksink program. The Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM), under development primarily for Ukraine, is otherwise shaping up to be a highly modular design, variants of which could be optimized for use against other target types.

These weapons would be useful for planes on land air bases. Assuming they are not simply static, unprotected strips of concrete with a wind sock.

Marines may be wondering just what the ef they are doing lugging around short-range anti-ship missiles at the ass ends of nowhere.  

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Photo grabbed from the Internet. Air Force, of course.

Once More Unto the Breach, Dear Comrades, Once More

Russia just can't quit Syria. So far the new rulers aren't ready to forgive and move on.

Russia is trying to get HTS to put aside that whole "helping Assad slaughter them" issue:

The first official Russian delegation arrived in Syria since the fall of the Assad regime on January 28 to discuss Russia's continued use of its military bases in Syria. ...

The Russian military continues to evacuate military assets from the Port of Tartus amid the ongoing Russian-Syrian negotiations.

If bases are the reason for the West to aid the Syrian jihadi rulers, don't worry about the Russian navy more than worry about the jihadis:

I don't worry. A Russian flotilla based in the Mediterranean Sea will lead a short but exciting life during a war. Russia doesn't need a blue water fleet and trying to cling to one is foolish.

And this prophecy about Russia's Syria expedition:

The Russians bought a pile of trouble to get bases in the Mediterranean Sea region. I don't understand the point of Russia expending effort to get a foothold in Syria. I don't think that it does them any good other than to remind them of their Soviet glory days. And I really don't see the point of Russia's escalating role in eastern Syria.

Russia got a sugar rush from their Syria intervention that will wear off as the grind of dealing with that Hell Hole continues to suck resources from Russia. Putin will need another short and glorious war to restore the rush. And one day the short and glorious war will turn out very obviously badly for Russia.

And Russia seeks to return to Syria even though it got that next war--good and hard.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: A 2016 photo of Russia's main air base in Syria by Vladimir Isachenkov/AP Photo.

The Winter War of 2022 Counts on Western Leaders More Than Russian Recruits

Russia didn't get its two-week war three years ago. How many more weeks can he keep his ground forces fighting if the West doesn't get out of the way of Russia's war of aggression as Putin demands?

The war goes on. Russia doesn't consider Ukraine a legitimate negotiating partner to make a peace deal and Putin would prefer the West to simply abandon Ukraine and let him conquer it.

But is his supply of cogs up to making good on Putin's demand?

Volunteer recruitment rates in in Moscow have dropped sharply, as Russian citizens grow increasingly unwilling to serve in Ukraine. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on January 29 that the number of Russian citizens willing to volunteer to fight in Ukraine in Moscow City has dropped significantly since Moscow's peak daily rate of 200 to 250 people in August 2024 (after the start of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk) to the current daily rate of about 40 people. The demographic makeup of the volunteers has also largely shifted as ordinary Russian citizens now comprise only half of the volunteers while the other half are largely foreigners and individuals facing criminal or administrative charges. Verstka, citing sources in the Moscow mayor's office and interviews with foreign recruits, noted that more citizens particularly from the People's Republic of China (PRC), African countries, and many from post-Soviet countries are signing contracts with the MoD and are drawn by the promise of one-time payments of 1.9 million rubles (about $19,140).

Is Russia's planned mass reservist call up for "training"--with secret provisions--that I recently noted a guise to get unwilling bodies into the army to send to the front? A Russian lawyer who helps those opposed to serving said:

[Military] exercises were an additional means of recruiting soldiers to fight in Ukraine, as it was easier to "force someone to sign a contract through isolation, trickery or even threats." 

Could this start another wave of Russian men leaving the country? Or going underground inside Russia?

We talk a lot about Ukraine's recruiting crisis. Which mostly seems to be an infantry crisis at the front, really, given the large number of Ukrainians serving in uniform.

But Russia is often assumed to have limitless meat sacks to hurl at the Ukrainian guns and drones. Just because Putin has ordered that and gotten that for nearly three years doesn't mean it can go on forever.

Using money to substitute for Russian bodies is possible as long as the money is there to pay and as long as the foreign troops don't realize it is a death sentence. Not every country in the world will treat its people as disposable sources of income on the scale North Korea has done. 

And if Putin orders the men called up for "training" to go to war, we may find what Russia's limits on its demands for sacrifice are.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Yep:

Russia, unable to subdue Ukraine with military force, concluded that the most vulnerable aspect of the Ukrainian war effort was the support received from NATO countries.

One reaction is Russia's subliminal offensive against European NATO states to frighten them into passivity.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.

The United States needs a shipbuilding revolution. Our shipbuilding industry can’t handle routine maintenance for our existing Navy without even addressing wartime damage repair; let alone rapidly expand the Navy. 

Trump commented on last week's air strike on ISIL (a.k.a. ISIL) in Somalia: "He went on to detail that the strikes destroyed 'the caves they live in' and that 'The message to ISIS and all others who would attack Americans is that WE WILL FIND YOU, AND WE WILL KILL YOU!'" 

China will put 15 million self-driving EVs on the roads this year. "Self driving!" LOL. CCP-driving, is more like it. Imagine being in your car and it suddenly drives to a Chinese police station or police checkpoint. Or into a canal or pole to cut out the middle man of a rubber-stamp court-ordered execution.

No invasion required: "Panama's president vowed Sunday to end a key development deal with China after meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and after complaints from President Donald Trump that the Latin American country had ceded control over its critical shipping canal to Beijing."

An operational reserve in action: "More than 140 soldiers with the Pennsylvania National Guard will leave for a yearlong deployment to Kuwait as part of Task Force Spartan to support the U.S. Central Command’s mission of increasing regional security and stability."

Oh FFS, stop acting like America would actually invade Panama. Absent an overt Chinese takeover--which I'm sure would trigger some provision allowing our intervention when Panama doesn't keep it secure for our use--America is not taking the canal. 

Jihadis focus the mind: "The fall of Bashar Assad in Syria has led Iran-allied factions in neighboring Iraq to reconsider their push for U.S. forces to exit the country, multiple Iraqi and American officials told The Associated Press." Coalition forces inside Syria are a shield for Iraq.

China's forces aren't ten feet tall. Well, sure. But they just have to be better at the point they wage war. Germans were better than Soviets, but the USSR still marched into the rubble of Berlin in 1945.

Western efforts have slowed the Houthi anti-shipping campaign in the Red Sea: "Egypt and Iran are enemies and reducing Suez Canal income is a win for Iran, which supported the Yemen rebels for more than a decade to make such an interdiction possible." The October B-2 strike on the Houthi hurt them.

Japan puts more F-35Bs on their warships--totally not aircraft carriers, of course.

It seems to me that the case for Mauritius controlling Diego Garcia--where America has basing rights from Britain--is based on French colonial claims that grouped numerous islands together.

Will non-acoustic detection methods turn the seas transparent? If so, submarine survivability which depends on not being detected collapses. Surface ships are easier to see. But they have defensive armament. The methods apply to target surface vessels. But diving deeper would defeat most means.

Swing and a miss: "Swedish prosecutors decided Monday to release a vessel belonging to a Bulgarian shipping company after ruling out initial suspicions that sabotage caused damage to an undersea fiber-optic cable between Sweden and Latvia." Accidents do happen.

Dealing extremely harshly with immigrants and citizens, too. Sound of crickets to follow.

Ukraine will establish corps to command brigades rather than simply have independent brigades directly controlled by regional headquarters. These "corps" are really more like large divisions, unlike our corps which can have up to five divisions. Ukraine used these for their 2023 counteroffensive.

Italy will rebuild its heavy forces: "Italy’s defense chief has challenged Leonardo and Rheinmetall to deliver a massive, €23 billion ($24 billion) order of tanks and fighting vehicles as quickly as possible to get Italy ready for an increasingly dangerous world."

The Guardian speaks of the EU's self-destructive policies as if they are successful; and advocates more "Europe": "We need to see something that visionary leaders on the European continent have often aspired to but never achieved: pluralist societies cohering in a common European 'nation'." Never waste a crisis.

Is the recruiting crisis really over or is this from reduced goals? "The Army is set to dramatically expand how many new recruits it can send to basic training this spring, riding the momentum of recent gains toward reversing a recruiting slump it has struggled with in recent years." Also, ah Leonard Wood!

The Art of the Ukraine Deal takes shape: "President Donald Trump says he wants to negotiate an agreement with Ukraine in which Kyiv guarantees supplies of rare earth metals, key elements used in electronics, in exchange for aid." German criticism is weird. Without rare earths we can't make weapons.

That's nice. Without fog or smoke, of course: "The Navy has disclosed that the Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Preble successfully test-fired its High-Energy Laser with Integrated Optical Dazzler and Surveillance (HELIOS) system to take out an aerial target drone in Fiscal Year 2024."

JAGM: "The Marine Corps plans to upgrade an air-to-surface munition to give its helicopters more firepower to shoot down enemy drones, according to the service’s new aviation plan." 

Indeed: "On Monday, [NATO secretary general Mark] Rutte said any notion of a European defence strategy without the United States would be a 'silly thought.'" America is needed to knit together large but atomized European forces into a coherent whole. Don't listen to EU types who want "Europe" to do that.

A survey of Russian and Chinese interests in the Indo-Pacific region. In my view, Russia wants to point China at America--for good reason. And China wants to squeeze the last drop of Soviet technology from Russia. As for "no obvious dealbreakers between them", what? These two are frenemies with benefits.

Did the Biden administration rush a report on START compliance to obscure Russian cheating on that nuclear weapons agreement? Dunno. I also don't know how much of Russia's strategic deterrence is a facade. Sometimes I wonder if we go along with Russian bluffs to deter China from attacking Russia.

Hypersonic overhype. I've read in the past that while sometimes you absolutely have to kill everyone in the room right now, that for most military missions hypersonics are expensive over-kill. That said, I do have some worries.

Why does America fund enemies? Tip to Instapundit. Indeed. But that is loose change compared to this funding outrage.

Victory: "The US could be allowed to step up its military presence in Greenland, the prime minister of Denmark has said." But the island is not for sale. Okay. It would be nice to own Greenland, but this is acceptable.

China has proved it can blockade Taiwan. Sure. But a blockade is an act of war. How many warships and planes east of Taiwan is China prepared to lose to enforce it? And if naval mines start appearing off of Chinese ports--and sinking oil tankers and container ships--what then?

Ukraine says it is using lasers in an air defense role.

Air Force and Navy surveillance aircraft are flying missions along our border with Mexico.

Hmmm: "Trump ... suggested that displaced Palestinians in Gaza be permanently resettled outside the war-torn territory and proposed the U.S. take 'ownership' in redeveloping the area into 'the Riviera of the Middle East.'" Writing "permanently" ignores context, I think. Those who won't leave open up this option.

American B-1 bombers flew with Philippine F/A-50 fighters over the Scarborough Shoal where Chinese aircraft previously used flares to drive off a Philippine transport aircraft.

Good grief, Putin wants everything: "the position of the magnetic North Pole is officially being changed, continuing its shift away from Canada and towards Siberia." Tip to Instapundit.

Special forces are getting them: "Roadrunner will operate as an explosive drone that will destroy itself when it demolishes a drone, helicopter or aircraft." Ahem. It's kind of expensive for anti-drone work, however.

You've got targets: "During the last decade the American military has been using software incorporating radical new technology for mission planning. That includes selecting targets for air strikes." Pray it isn't hacked or our Air Force becomes everybody's air force.

Here we go: "U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday restored his 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran that includes efforts to drive its oil exports down to zero in order to stop Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon." In the last year Iran lost a lot of its assets that it needs to rebuild.

"Force Design" Marines don't want to be a second Army but are cool with being a second Navy. And have no problem being a third air force: "The Marine Corps plans to double its buy of the carrier-borne F-35C variant and scale back its buy of the short-takeoff-vertical-landing F-35B, according to [the Marines]."

The commander of the American cruiser that shot down a friendly F-18 during combat with the Iran-backed Houthi was relieved of command while the ship was still at sea.

Private military companies. Western PMCs tend to focus on security. Russian on combat operations. Chinese on Belt and Road security. Mercenaries have a long history. 

A grateful nation remembers the life and service of  LTC Harry Stewart, Jr.

Troops don't like the optics: "The Army has officially fielded its brand-new rifles to soldiers, but the service is apparently still working out the kinks with the systems' advanced optic, according to a new assessment from the Defense Department's top weapons tester." New stuff often battles reality until fixed.

Yes! "The hugely delayed effort to return the Russian Navy’s nuclear-powered battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov to service is finally yielding some tangible results, according to Russian reports." The blue waters siren song beckons!

I've long been aware that NGOs support our enemies. I didn't realize how much we funded them and how directly they worked against America (tip to Instapundit).

From the "Well, Duh" file, we really should break our defense-industrial base reliance on China. 

Compromising with friends and allies on trade terms is possible, but: "China is a strategic adversary. Trade conflict is a symptom of deeper political and economic tensions. The problem for China is that its economy is not well positioned to weather a new major external shock." It's still only a trade skirmish.

Can Britain maintain political independence from the European Union while promoting trade with the EU to raise British standards of living? That's the problem. It took America from 1783 to 1815 to get Britain to give up on opposing the Colonial Exit and play nicely. I doubt the EU is there yet. 

Programs of Engagement: "a Ukrainian firm developed an AI system that can, with great accuracy, determine if a group of soldiers in the distance are Ukrainian or Russian. This reduces the instances of friendly fire."

The Philippines meets force with hints of force.

Maybe: "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism allows signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of 'significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.'" We'll see if this process survives UNSC rules, eh?

France sent the first of the Mirage 2000 fighters intended for strike missions to Ukraine.

Seriously, it simply sounds like Trump offered to oversee rubble clean up and unexploded ordinance disposal in Gaza. Assuming the population is out of the way. Gaza is not the Greenland of the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Russia has a new nuclear use policy? Oh no. Anyway. I think this is an information operation to frighten the West. It's easier to draft fantasy doctrine papers than build and maintain long-range nukes.

Bulgaria gets F-16s to replace old Soviet aircraft.

India will increase its defense budget by nearly 10%.

The US has plans to withdraw troops from Syria, but no orders to do so. Is this leverage to get more from Coalition and regional allies?

Ukraine says Russia suffers a very low 2:1 wounded-to-killed casualty ratio because of poor battlefield medical care. If true, I imagine that factor kills those who would be too wounded to fight in any case. So this saves money for Russia's war effort, I suppose. If true. Possible. Don't know.

Attrition strains Ukraine's army. And popular support. All this talk of America using Ukraine to weaken Russia ignores that it is only because Ukraine is willing to fight to defeat Russia. Our aid doesn't make Ukrainians fight. It makes them capable of fighting. After three years, either side may decide not to fight.

I like the aid-for-rare earths deal. But the idea that helping Ukraine resist Russia's invasion doesn't already improve American security is nonsense.

Assuming the 10,000 Mexican troops sent to prevent human and drug smugglers from crossing into America won't be bribed, this is a good thing. But what we do matters much more. Tip to Instapundit.

I've heard some say the USAID is a CIA front that launders taxpayer money through expensive, loyal middlemen. I'd be prone to accept the need for that if the CIA was influencing foreign countries and conspiring against foreign enemies.

Trump's "plan" for Gaza is a recipe for "forever war"? We have a forever war right now. And as far as I can tell the prediction is based on the author creating a plan in his mind from a couple sentences. I'll wait for a proposal.

ISW judges that Ukraine’s Kursk incursion has undermined Russian offense operations elsewhere.

Fort Apache: “If there were another Pearl Harbor type surprise attack in the Pacific, it would not hit Hawaii, but Guam.”

More and more I see FPV drones as another type of precision munition. The cost is in personnel to use them rather than money to build them.

Iran’s escort carrier.

Cutting the cord: “Estonia, along with fellow Baltic states Latvia and Lithuania, is counting down the days to finally ridding itself of one of the last vestiges of 50 years of Soviet occupation: an electricity grid controlled by Russia.”

Mine clearing LCS would be useful east of Taiwan in case of a Chinese blockade.

ASW detection: “The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) has helped develop an autonomous underwater float that can monitor and transmit oceanographic and underwater acoustic data near-indefinitely, and in near real-time.”

Slaughtering our people was so three months ago.

Eliminating friendly fire is hard: “there are often unwinnable situations where a commander either advances quickly against an enemy force, and risks more friendly fire, or takes more casualties because the enemy is left in a better position, or simply because the battle will last longer.”

The Army’s new 6.8mm rifle and light machine gun.

Sudan’s army is making “huge gains” in the civil war.

China wants a naval base in Simonstown, South Africa.

Russian war crimes: “About 14,000 Ukrainian children have disappeared into Russia and many of the younger ones have been adopted by Russian couples to be raised as Russians.”

I have to say that I'm shocked North Korean troops were pulled off the front because of casualties. I assumed North Korea wanted all of them to die there rather than come home "infected" by seeing a foreign country. Even Russia at war is better than North Korea.

Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire

Sunni Arab states won a victory over Shia and Persian Iran with the fall of Iran's client Assad regime in Syria. But a victory for Sunni jihadis who hate Sunni Arab monarchies and threaten their legitimacy is a deeper threat.

Yes, that's an ominous dark lining in a silver cloud:

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria created a unique problem for Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. They are relieved that their regional and sectarian rival, Iran, has lost its power and influence in the Levant, but its demise has empowered Sunni Islamists in Syria, the likes of which Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have spent many years and untold amounts of money suppressing. Sunni Arab states will now have to deal with Islamists at the state level.

The Saudis with their restive Shia minority have long worried about Iranian subversion as well as a direct military threat from far more populous Iran on the other side of the Gulf. The Saudis are now hedging their bets with limited outreach and aid to HTS. This is a major change after years of trying to wean Shia but fellow Arab Alawites (well, sort of Shias) who ruled Syria under Assad away from Iranian (who are Persians but not Arab) dominance.

But for all the talk in the West of HTS being "tame" jihadis who simply want "Islamism in one country" rather than aiming to restore an Islam-spanning caliphate, Arab rulers don't seem similarly confused. They appreciate that their dangerous neighborhood just got even more dangerous.

One can only hope that Mohammed bin Salman can traverse his high wire to shift the legitimacy of Arab autocrats and monarchs from radical forms of Islam that the Saudis created and spread to one based on justice and stability. Success in the Islamic civil war would transform Islam to a more normal form just as Christianity evolved away from its expansionist and militant phase.

UPDATE: Resettling refugees is Syria's biggest problem? FFS, having jihadis in charge of Syria is Syria's biggest problem.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.