Hezbollah, LLC

Is Hezbollah dedicated to destroying Israel or dedicated to portraying itself as dedicated to destroying Israel?

It's kind of amusing in a bureaucratic evolution sort of analysis: 

Experts say that Hezbollah’s international network is expanding, but that the group isn’t eager for outright war with Israel or the United States. Instead, some analysts say, Hezbollah would rather rely on covert operations and terrorist activities.

All backed by donations and organized crime.

Has organizational self-preservation altered a group that once boasted it would destroy Israel into one that minimally attacks Israel to justify the continued existence and profits of the group. From the prophet to profit, eh?

What does that mean for Israel's military plans to defend itself from Hezbollah?

If Hezbollah bombards Israel again from southern Lebanon, Israel plans to quickly go after the leaders and launching sites: 

Israel knows where most of these hideouts are and plans to use ground, airmobile and amphibious attacks to go after the largest number of key Hezbollah facilities, especially leaders. The amphibious operations will be more extensive as Israel is buying two amphibious ships from the United States.

I guess no deep push to the Bekaa Valley as I long suspected is planned. I assumed Israel would need to uproot the organization. Yet Israel didn't exploit Hezbollah's bloody war inside Syria to maximize Israel's capacity to do that.

Still, the talk is of a ground campaign and not just an air campaign. Can Israel afford to refrain from a deep push? 

The leader of Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group threatened Thursday to strike a gas rig Israel is setting up in the Mediterranean Sea and that Lebanon claims is in a disputed maritime area between the two countries.

That's a big threat, is it not? One that requires a major military effort to defeat, right?

Or is Israel capable of killing the leaders--who benefit from the profits of their anti-Israel brand--without destroying the neutered organization? And thus deterring those leaders from ordering more than a symbolic attack on Israel? Maybe Israel thinks it has a defensive strategy that allows them to refrain from ground operations.

I don't know what is going on. I'm trying to reconcile the relative quiet of Hezbollah since the 2006 war and Israel's refusal to go after Hezbollah directly despite the massive rocket arsenal Hezbollah has massed in southern Lebanon. If something makes sense it must be a possible explanation.

Is Hezbollah's rocket posture in southern Lebanon just a giant brand advertising campaign to sustain the organization? That benefits Hezbollah's leadership. And Israel, I suppose, which won't have their defensive systems seriously tested. As long as new management eager to get back to basics doesn't take over. Perhaps with new Iranian weapons.

As it seems now, only long-suffering Lebanon continues to suffer from Hezbollah's control of southern Lebanon and its stranglehold in national politics.

NOTE: My latest war coverage is here. Weekend data dump also has Ukraine-related entries.

Save the Fleet and Preserve America

America needs a fleet because it needs to control the Atlantic and Pacific to prevent threats from reaching Western Hemisphere shores. And the fleet needs to support allies in Asia and Europe to prevent a hostile power from building fleets to take control of the Atlantic or Pacific and directly or indirectly threaten America. How's the Navy doing?

Figuring out what is wrong with our surface ship leadership is certainly welcome:

In 2018, Naval Surface Force Pacific established the Human Factors Oversight Council and since then has relied on the group to measure a broad range of sailor data, from how much sleep each individual sailor has gotten each night, and therefore how fit to stand watch they are, to how much training a sailor has received and how they scored on proficiency tests, and therefore the ship to which they should be assigned. The group looks at a ship’s mishaps during maintenance to determine how statistically likely they are to have a certain type of mishap during at-sea operations.

The data may allow the Navy to seek the roots of the crew problems at the ship and numbered fleet levels. That's not enough. I'm not truly worried about a recent spate of leadership firings by the Navy. I worry that this data-driven project--while useful--is treating the symptoms for the real problem in the flag officer and civilian leadership ranks:

What we should do but won't is revamp selection and training for our senior officers to reduce the climate of stupidity that cripples American warfighting abilities. 

Somehow our flag officers are convinced that there are many substitutes for victory. But the truth is that woke lips sink ships.

I think that the purge doesn't go high enough. I've lost trust and confidence in our flag officers' ability to command the Navy. What oversight of those human factors will we carry out?

The Navy and Air Force are already under enough pressure that they don't know if they can spare assets from sea control to move and supply the Army overseas. We need superior leadership when control of the seas is contested in critical regions.

The value of having limited military threats to America for giving America the freedom to suppress or dissipate threats at the sources in Eurasia should not be underestimated and taken for granted.

And then we can work on the math of American naval power.

The foundation of American military power to protect America is aero-naval power. If America's aero-naval power can't hold the Atlantic and Pacific, enemies can directly threaten America or build up Western Hemisphere threats that require America to build up ground power. Which reduces resources available for aero-naval power to push back the threats from Eurasia. The foundation of that aero-naval power is secure northern and southern borders that allow America to have a relatively smaller ground force.

And keeping threats away from America helps preserve our freedoms by not needing to regiment America and constrain our freedoms. You do recall what happened to our relative freedom after 9/11, right? How much worse would it be if conventional enemies loomed over our coasts?

Let's fix the Navy and sustain the virtuous cycle rather then trigger a cycle of worsening security here at home.

UPDATE: The Navy remains focused like a laser on the real challenges it faces: climate change. To be fair, it isn't bad to wargame bad weather--a common thing. So if the Navy is just putting "green" camouflage on its useful exercises, I suppose I can't complain.

 

NOTE: My latest war coverage is here. Weekend data dump also has Ukraine-related entries.

Identifying What is Rational for Xi Jinping May Be Beyond Our Grasp

Don't think we can predict why China might invade Taiwan. I don't believe we can even begin to comprehend their rational.

I've long been distressed by our unwitting destruction of Mao's enemies. This author recalls: 

Mao’s use of the Korean War (1950-53) to eliminate former Kuomintang officers and soldiers, who were re-organized into 14 PLA Armies, the majority of which were deployed to the front, suffering exceptional losses in a protracted conflict.

The author uses that sacrifice of defeated enemies to wonder if Xi Jinping might like to discredit and purge some of his opposition in the PLA with a minor defeat:

There is the egregiously cynical conclusion that Xi may risk a war over Taiwan knowing that any less-than victorious outcome will increase his influence within the PLA and permit him to further reduce opposing factions and disloyal officers. The responsibility for any military setback, as long as it is not catastrophic, can be shifted onto the PLA, which will perversely strengthen the stature of the CCP and increase the PLA’s dependence on the party.

From Xi's point of view, the invasion might work, so he wins that way. But if the PLA is defeated and XI cuts his losses by retreating before the defeat is catastrophic--yet retaining some of Taiwan's islands captured while invading the main island--Xi might look like the savior of the PLA. Which would allow Xi to purge worrisome PLA officers who survive the invasion.

Xi might even deliberately halt what could be a successful conquest of Taiwan by declaring a ceasefire while the PLA has a bridgehead in order to both purge the PLA and maintain the bridgeheads to resume the war at a later date with more loyal commanders in charge.

Taiwan and its allies might believe they were saved by agreeing to a ceasefire when they are just being saved for later. Because job one of the PLA is to maintain the Chinese Communist Party's control of China--which Xi increasingly views as being embodied by himself.

Heck, I wondered if North Korea would try a variant of that strategy to get rid of its huge army that costs too much to maintain yet is too dangerous to release into the civilian world. I wouldn't put it beyond Xi to try that strategy--again.

Is our intelligence on China granular enough to know if Xi critics in the PLA are concentrated in Taiwan-focused military units?

NOTE: My latest war coverage is here. Weekend data dump also has Ukraine-related entries.

The Winter War of 2022 Poised For a New Phase

A new phase of the war is coming. I don't believe it will be stalemate given the often low force-to-space ratio along much of the front lines that look so solid when drawn on a map. The images of firepower-heavy slow-moving trench warfare around Severodonetsk obscure that reality. But I don't know what the new phase will be.

Late last week, Ukraine ordered its troops to evacuate Severodonetsk. Good. The troops did a Hell of a job buying time and inflicting casualties on the Russian invaders. They paid a price for it but should not feel defeated. That order was needed because Russian momentum in the salient is small but noticeable. The signs appeared that more terrain must be given up to save troops:

Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area over the last several days and Ukrainian troops continue to suffer high casualties, but Ukrainian forces have fundamentally accomplished their objective in the battle by slowing down and degrading Russian forces.

Russia even surrounded some Ukrainian troops in a small pocket on the southern front of the salient. 

The Ukrainians are also setting the stage to pull back from Lysynchansk, just west of Severodonetsdk. Again, hold the city only to buy time and inflict casualties on the Russians. Don't risk another pocket that bags a lot of those defenders. Spend more effort helping isolated Ukrainian troops break out to fight another day.

I've written that there are parallels in this war with Germany's invasion of Russia in World War II:

Germany invaded on a broad front in 1941, expecting the Russians to collapse. Russia did not surrender and the German offensive stalled at the gates of Moscow before being pushed back. 

In 1942 German military power was too weak to resume the broad offensive. So Germany attacked on a smaller front in the south that it thought would be decisive. Meanwhile, Russian industry relocated beyond the initial German invasion began to rebuild the Russian army. The German army was stopped and was defeated in its efforts, retreating from its high water mark.

In 1943 as the Russians gathered power to build on their late 1942 counter-offensives, Germany launched a spoiling offensive at the Kursk salient into the teeth of Russian defenses in order to prepare a better defensive line to hold the off Russian offensives. The Germans bled their army in this attack, exposed it to a Russian counter-offensive at Kursk, and weakened the German army so much that future major German offensive operations were impossible.

I compared Russia's shrinking offensive scale to this German experience.

If the battle for the Severodonetsk salient is analogous to the Kursk campaign in 1943, how do we assess the outcome of the salient battle and what it means for the next phase?

Will Russia continue to pound Ukrainian troops to take all of Donetsk province after getting Luhansk? 

But can they continue? This tells a different story than I've heard of Russian artillery capabilities: 

Ukrainians are running short of artillery ammunition so they use their mobile artillery only for counterbattery (firing on Russian artillery). The Russians are also using artillery ammo at an unsustainable level and, if the Ukrainians receive more artillery ammo from NATO, Russia’s artillery superiority will fade.

Russia wants people to think they can keep up the pace forever. I thought that was unlikely, but what do I know?

Or will Russia regroup for another offensive on a more thinly held part of Ukraine's lines outside of the Donbas after capturing the last part of Luhansk province at the tip of the Severodonetsk salient, seeking easier territorial gains that continue the illusion of winning? And which don't require the volume of artillery fire to win.

Will Russia deploy to defend their gains after taking Luhansk, declare victory, and go over to the defensive, building a reserve to repulse Ukraine counter-attacks and continuing to wage strategic bombing on Ukraine's economy to compel Ukraine to accept--whether formally or in practice--Russia's second round of conquests?

Will Ukraine build a reserve and use it on Russia's weakened army to defeat a portion of the Russian army in battle and drive back Russian forces a significant and perhaps decisive distance, perhaps breaking the Russian army or provoking political unrest within Russia?

The ISW assessment says that Russia's under-the-radar recruitment of troops to replace losses means there won't be a big drop in troop strength that Ukraine can wait for and exploit. 

But Russian soldiers rushed to the front will be vulnerable to breaking if Ukraine pushes a counter-offensive forward. We shall see.

Putin is trying to portray his flailing and costly invasion as an inevitable victory to discourage Western help for Ukraine. But cracks in the facade are growing inside Russia.

UPDATE: The word is that Lysychansk, the last major Luhansk city still in Ukrainian hands, could hold out for months. Maybe. But I wonder if Ukrainian troops are up to the same level of sacrifice as they displayed in Severodonetsk. They're only human. Unless something else happens to bolster Ukraine's war effort, I wouldn't count on that kind of endurance.

ISW updates continue here. 

UPDATE (Thursday): Russia abandoned Snake Island in the northwestern Baltic Sea.

Ukraine is continuing to claw back territory on the Kherson front. Although there isn't enough mass to really score a breakthrough.

But Russian gains south of Lysychansk indicates to me that Ukraine won't hold its last city in Luhansk province very long. ISW thinks it is possible there will be a fighting withdrawal back to better defensive lines. Unless something dramatic happens to change that vector.

Russia seems to be dissipating its dwindling combat power by increasing attacks around Kharkiv.

UPDATE (Saturday): The latest ISW update. Ukraine evacuated Lysychansk and fell back to lines less likely to be cut off. I wonder if the talk of resistance "for months" was meant to be a deception. I sure didn't think that was likely, as I noted earlier. Or wise.

Otherwise mostly static. Ukraine may be able to attack Russian lines of supply east and southeast of Kharkiv with new American-made rocket systems. And Ukraine has the initiative on the southern front where Russian troops are digging in to resist counter-attacks and partisans.

Weekend Data Dump

China builds an ESB class of littoral warfare ship. And America's class of such ships. I was unaware of some of the earlier experiments. Recall that Ponce was a laser test bed, too. By building ESBs, the Navy made my The AFRICOM Queen proposal unnecessary.

Oops: "The air force made two other avoidable mistakes [in addition to engine maintenance deficiencies]; introducing the new ALIS (Autonomic Logistics Information System), a spare parts management system that did not work as expected, and underestimating the difficulty of updating the complex F-35 software in a timely manner. These three bad decisions are now combining to keep F-35 readiness (mission capable) rates low while those for older aircraft, including the F-22 stealth fighter, increase."

Before we mock the Russians too much for their inability to use their air force in a large conventional war: "Both the US Navy and Air Force have been struggling to keep some planes ready to fly in recent years, and it’s only getting worse, according to a new watchdog report."

Oops: "French President Emmanuel Macron is set to face a potentially tumultuous five years of deadlock after his centrist alliance fell short of an absolute majority in a parliamentary runoff on Sunday, just weeks after he was reelected to the Elysée." Macron's imperial ambitions hit a speed bump.

I wonder if Lithuania's stoppage of certain rail traffic to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave under EU sanctions provisions is meant to provide leverage for ending Russia's blockade of Odessa grain exports? If not, Lithuania's actions seem a bit risky.

Huh: "Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday that there was no point having any nuclear arms reduction talks with the United States and that Moscow should wait until the Americans begged for negotiations." This tough talk makes sense.

China launched a new advanced large aircraft carrier. But in an observation worthy of Admiral Obvious, "But the fact that the Fujian comes equipped with the latest bells and whistles does not make it immune from attacks from above and below the water." Yes. If it floats it can sink. Or be mission-killed. America can return China's A2/AD favor.

A remotely controlled HIMARS robotic vehicle.

Russia is beating their chest and flinging poo in Syria around American forces.

Huh, I guess the Green Australian PM doesn't want to risk his political future by sacrificing his people on the altar of Gaia.  The Greens picked energy "winners" incapable of crossing the finish line. Now the people will pay one way or the other.

Zhir, yes zhir! "The Navy is training its members to create a 'safe space' by using proper gender pronouns in a new instructional video modeled after a children's show." Via Instapundit. It figures that the Navy, which by tradition calls USS Gerald R. Ford "she", would do this first. When the PLA Navy kicks our ass at sea, you'll know why.

 

Has the proto-imperial EU sabotaged its goal of stripping away the prefix with its main proponents pretending that splitting the Ukraine baby is the height of sophisticated nuance? The EU proponents of "ever closer union" are exposed for its anti-freedom foundation.

I've refrained from commenting on the Uvalde school shooting. We need to know what went wrong. But by now it seems clear that the idea that we can rely on the police to protect us is unsupported by the police leadership decisions that day. And can you imagine the psychological toll on officers poised to break in who were told to stay put while they could hear children being killed one by one? Will "leaders" be held accountable?

South Korea reminds North Korea that in a nuclear arms race the North won't win despite its head start: "South Korea conducted its first successful satellite launch using a domestically developed rocket on Tuesday, officials said, boosting its growing aerospace ambitions and demonstrating it has key technologies needed to launch spy satellites and build larger missiles amid tensions with rival North Korea."

Ukraine's desperate helicopter missions to sustain the Azovstal plant defenders in Mariupol and evacuate their wounded. 

Is the F-15EX purchase going to be cancelled? I hope not. It has value for continental air defense, air superiority missions against weaker enemies, and strike missions that don't require stealth. It could also be a small arsenal plane functioning like an external missile load for F-35s firing the F-15EX missiles without revealing the F-35's location. The F-15EX could make a high-speed exit from the engagement area after firing. And I like having a dogfighter Plan B in case the F-35 fighting model is insufficient or--God help us--wrong.

God damn the teacher unions to Hell.

Yes, Ukraine needs Western heavy weapons now. But given that Ukraine has to transition usage, logistics, and maintenance for totally new weapons I don't know if it is possible. Shoving weapons into Ukraine now where they will sit in storage until Ukraine can use them doesn't seem wise. Why let Russia destroy them before Ukraine can use them? So I'm not willing at this point to fully criticize the pace of getting weapons to Ukraine.

Our future friend: "A U.S. Navy warship fired a warning flare to wave off an Iranian Revolutionary Guard speedboat coming straight at it during a tense encounter in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, officials said Tuesday." Note that a previous even worse incident in March was kept quiet because our government is desperate to renew the horrible Iran nuclear deal.

Russia has quickly returned to massed firepower to pound their enemy. Truly it is scary. But Russia is using it against an enemy with limited long-range counter-battery capabilities. Could Russia repeat this against a peer competitor? Heck, does Russia have the ammunition supply to win in the Severodonetsk salient offensive?

I find this concept so stupid and not worth the price that I have trouble believing it is being seriously studied: "... rocket-launched commandos slipping the surly bonds of Earth and being sent around the world in hours to secure a target." What's the point of getting there fast if there is no way to sustain or withdraw them--and whoever they were sent to rescue? Isn't this an expensive suicide mission?

The West really needs to ramp up ammunition and weapons production. Both for Ukraine and in case the West needs it.

Good: "Canada on Monday pledged to spend over $30 billion over the next two decades to help detect and track military threats from Russia and China in the Arctic." It's about time. But what about money to "fight" threats?

I should hope so: "The US intelligence community is conducting an internal review of its processes after underestimating Ukrainian resolve and overestimating Russian military capabilities." Our models failed. Although I wouldn't quite call the Russian military "hollow." It is pounding Ukraine. If Russia can endure the cost in dead soldiers for fighting that way, it can work. But it was certainly inflated--here and in Russia, which believed its own BS.

The Saudis oppose the far more dangerous Iranians. I'm not sure what all the anguish is about over Biden's outreach unless nobody wants to make big boy decisions in the real world. Too many here love the Iranian mullahs.

FFS. Could our Navy wargame how the PLA could affect future conflict? The Navy has many substitutes for victory.

I will never give my pronouns. If you can't tell, either I'm doing something wrong or you are.

You'd think Russia has enough on its hands without provoking NATO: "Estonia's defense ministry said Tuesday that a Russian Mi-8 helicopter entered the region of Koidula without permission for two minutes on Saturday, adding that it was one of a number of recent aerial intrusions by Russia."

Lithuania's halting of Russian ground traffic to Kaliningrad highlights the Suwalki gap problem. The problem is more serious after Russia's Anschluss with Belarus.

With Russia getting more Russia-like, this is a bad idea: "President Joe Biden’s administration announced Tuesday it would restrict the use of anti-personnel land mines by the U.S. military, aligning the country’s policy more closely with an international treaty banning the deadly explosives." Our ban assumes we will win any war and the main problem is cleaning up the mines after our victory. But at least anti-tank mines aren't banned. So it isn't totally stupid. Our enemies will use mines. 

No American should use the Chinese Communist Party data mining app TikTok. American troops should be forbidden from using it.

Russia deserves a lot more of this given its record of destroying Ukraine: "A 'kamikaze drone' has struck an oil refinery in Russia, causing a fire to break out."

I hope that airman has a long future of breaking large rocks into pebbles: "Military law enforcement on June 16 arrested an American airman as part of an ongoing investigation into an insider attack on a small U.S. base in northern Syria that injured four service members in April, CNN reported Tuesday." If found guilty, of course.

If Russian territorial unity is put under stress by Putin's invasion of Ukraine, what will Kaliningrad do? "Rather than invest in Kaliningrad’s economy as it has been cut off from Europe, Putin has militarised it – his strategy has been described as an attempt to create an 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' wedged in the EU."

Does new military technology mean size doesn't matter? "Smaller nations can become great powers, decisive and dangerous." I don't think so. Perhaps for the first week or month of war. But even if a small great power can hold an enemy at bay for a while, eventually weight of numbers and logistics will grind the small power down.

I'm no expert, but if Biden suspends the federal gas tax won't that increase consumption of gasoline? And won't increasing demand push the price up, perhaps erasing the value to consumers of the lack of a gas tax? Isn't increasing the supply of gasoline by opening up exploration and production the way to go by signaling markets that more product will be coming to the market?

Imperial ambitions: "Turkey’s parliament on Tuesday extended for another 18 months a mandate that allows the deployment of Turkish troops to Libya."

Earthquake in Afghanistan. 

The various news livestreams that I used to keep on to keep track of breaking news in the Winter War of 2022 have largely resumed their normal programming. Conventional war in Europe? Yawn. The panic of nuclear war fear four months ago was unfounded. And now the war is boring.

Russia's Donetsk puppet force appear to have lost about half of their pre-war strength (KIA and WIA) so far in the war.

I listened to a podcaster explain that one problem of sending Western tanks to Ukraine is that Ukraine's transportation infrastructure (like bridges) can't handle their weight. Nor could Ukrainian recovery vehicles tow them. This is before you consider the issues of maintenance, training, and logistics. I hadn't considered the weight issue.

As long as Eisenhower's warning of a military-industrial complex is again in vogue, let's also recall that he said there was an "imperative need" for that complex to defend ourselves. But sure, it's a two-edged sword we need to handle carefully lest we harm ourselves.

When the "responsible" center won't even discuss issues a sizable portion of the population wants addressed--and condemns you as "deplorable" for even bringing them up--a sizable portion of the population will support the right and left wings who are willing to talk about them. Even if the wings won't talk responsibly about them. 

Lithuania says Russia is lying--I know, shocking--about its cutoff of certain strategic cargo going to Kaliningrad. It is not a blockade or siege.

Inflation was high before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Journalists suck but are in denial. Journalists write for the tiny leftist and activist segment of the Twitterverse.

So wants to pay for a next generation tank?

There is a lack of EU leadership to deal with the Ukraine crisis? Hold on there! The proto-imperial EU hasn't stripped that prefix yet! Whether or not there is EU leadership, NATO is designed for this crisis. Putin isn't vulnerable to 10,000 entangling cheese regulations. 

Sigh: "The June 12 decision by Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to renounce his electoral victory and collapse the government formation process is a gift to Iran." I've long worried that we'd rue the day we let that three-time insurrectionist live. I'm told Sadr is no longer a puppet of Iran. If so, what does it matter? Biden is letting things slide. We may yet lose the latest phase of the war we won. 

So far, Iraq continues to kill jihadis: "Iraq has in recent weeks stepped up counterterrorism operations in its western desert and other areas amid risks of an imminent flare-up of conflict in eastern Syria, with potential repercussions in the regional fight against the Islamic State (IS)."

Commies gotta commy: "Even though 104 of the 118 Confucius Institutes on American college campuses have been shut down, the Chinese government is finding new ways to infiltrate higher education in the United States, according to a new report by the National Association of Scholars." Tip to Instapundit.

Russia has gotten their artillery war on a very narrow front in the Donbas. Can they win it? I don't know if Russia has the ammunition or the artillery barrels to maintain their pace of destruction.

Israel's laser wall against aerial threats, rockets, and shells will be more cost effective than its Iron Dome defenses. But I imagine it can be overwhelmed by volume just as the rocket-based system can be. And on strategy, does Israel believe this will let them remain on the defensive on their border?

More HIMARS for Ukraine: "The U.S. will send another $450 million in military aid to Ukraine, including some additional medium-range rocket systems, U.S. officials said Thursday." 

I've wondered if Russia has the ammunition to keep up the pace of their artillery usage. The Ukrainians say the Russians can keep up the pace another year. Whether the troops have the same endurance is another question, however. Russia has probably lost 20,000 KIA at this point. Add in another 40,000 WIA too badly hurt to return to duty.

The rise of socialism fans does not bode well for America. Sure, they don't really understand socialism or free market capitalism. But their votes are no less valid for that. And yeah, while I support Trump's championing of the blue collar class, I don't like the formerly left-wing positions his backers support like trade and industrial policy.

In my view, Russia is beating their chest and flinging poo in the Baltic region now because Putin's war in Ukraine has made his military incapable of doing more than threaten anybody else. Putin can use cyber, special forces, or nukes. Everything else he might use is dying or burning in Ukraine.

North Korea doesn't want to risk cracking down on protests outside of Pyongyang against hunger and Covid policies. Well isn't that interesting.

The U.S. is sending more military aid to Ukraine, including 4 more HIMARS, patrol boats, artillery ammunition (Oddly, 105mm rounds. Who provided those guns? [LATER: Ah, New Zealand provided the guns and training in Britain.), small arms, and patrol boats, among other things. 

Is North Korea moving short-range nukes close to South Korea's border? That makes them easier for South Korea and its allies to destroy. Surely Kim Jong-un doesn't think a surprise nuclear strike would win him South Korea, does he? I'd say odds are the warheads aren't reliable so the fear factor of deploying them is more valuable to Kim than protecting the weapons.

Bolster deterrence against China by returning American bases to the Philippines. Short of that, I think deterrence could be increased by helping the Philippines supply its island bases that resist China's subliminal offensive.

Building up infrastructure in INDOPACOM. 

Overturning long-established law is now outrageous, apparently.

Now the issue is in the legislative arena, where it belongs. Rule of law has been defended. Nothing was in fact "banned" by the decision. I hope this is the start of a return to federalism, which may calm the viciously partisan political divide at the national level. Controlling the federal government should not be so important. Which contributed to the division.

Silly people think that getting Ukraine to surrender territory to Russia will provide peace for out time. There will be less peace without justice for Ukraine. But a majority in key European countries may think this time for sure, appeasement will work.

Why do people confuse "cautious" with "playing the long game"? "Far from spurring China to jettison this approach in favor of an imminent military assault on Taiwan, the war in Ukraine will reinforce Beijing’s commitment to playing the long game." I don't understand why people think Chinese rulers have near-genetic long-range planning abilities. Personally, I have no idea if the Winter War of 2022 has encouraged or discouraged Chinese willingness to invade Taiwan.

Rethinking Saudi Arabia. The country has changed a lot since 9/11. I think the shock of that terrorism forced the Saudis to confront the threat to themselves. They've worked to revise the culture that spawned the Islamist ideology that motivates murderers. The Saudis have a key role in winning the Islamic civil war for the good guys. Pray the Saudi rulers hold off the Islamists who won't give up easily.

Russia had a long covert campaign of intimidation, murder, and sabotage across Europe to limit Ukrainian artillery ammunition supplies. I mentioned one major attack in Ukraine in 2017: "The Ukrainian military has said unknown saboteurs blew up the military depot storing about 138,000 tonnes of ammunition, according to Reuters."

After about three months of effort, the Russians have taken Severodonetsk. Russian tactics of massive bombardment have enabled this short advance. Ukraine says it has inflicted heavy casualties on the Russians. Russia says its tactics have lowered their casualties. I suspect the Ukrainians are more accurate because Russia has drawn troops from the rest of the front for the Severodonetsk salient fight. 

The U.S. is looking more at air defenses issues in the Winter War of 2022. It is unclear if this means assisting Ukraine with air defenses or assisting Ukraine with defeating improved Russian air defenses.

Russia is fighting for its great power status but that is backfiring. I don't like the comparison to America's war in Vietnam. The cost was surely high in casualties and money. That is a valid parallel. But America actually defeated the Viet Cong. And left a South Vietnam capable of resisting North Vietnam with our aid--which Congress promptly slashed after American troops left. And one can make an argument that if you view the war as a hot campaign in the Cold War, the war improved deterrence against the USSR and held the line long enough for South Asia and Southeast Asia to improve their resistance to communist ideology.

Election validity deniers. Wait. What? That didn't undermine our norms and institutions? Oh. Because reasons. Never mind.

The Army's ideal used to be only seeing green soldiers. Well, we're effed. Tip to Instapundit.

A number of states had dormant statutes against abortion because of Roe v. Wade that are reanimated with the latest Supreme Court decision. Where were the Democrats over the last half century repealing those statutes when they had power? I've long known Michigan has one of those laws. Yet at no time did Democrats choose to get rid of those statutes. Abortion supporters should focus their ire on them rather than a court that rightly rejected a violation of rule of law based on wholly made up constitutional protections.

The people in Sudan's Darfur province continue to be subject to arguably genocidal attacks: "Violence in western Sudan this month alone has displaced more than 84,000 people, doubling the number of those driven from their homes so far this year, according to UN reports."

I'm told this is evidence of an insurrection.

Good: "Congress is poised to force the Pentagon to study how it assesses allies’ will to fight, amid criticism from lawmakers that the U.S. government has regularly failed to make such assessments accurately." The models are a problem. Also, this is not a defense: "Intelligence officials have said errors in predicting the course of the Russian invasion were more a matter of overestimating the Russians than underestimating the Ukrainians." FFS, notwithstanding the question, in what alternate bureaucratic world is that a defense of the models? 

Could a partisan divide in the mortality rates from 2001 to 2019--if the methodology isn't flawed--be caused from higher death and wound rates of young Republican troops in war compared to Democrats?

To be fair, it is quite illogical.

 

Sigh. I honestly hope the Republicans don't try to pass federal abortion legislation. Biden would veto it anyway. Stand up for federalism and advance it rather than continue the tradition of treating the federal government as the most important institution to battle over. 

Absolutely prosecute that nutball and/or fanatic.

FYI, Jane's Revenge is an American domestic terrorist organization. I'm sure the DOJ will get right on that.

Significant shrinkage in Russia. 

The patrol boats America is sending Ukraine are intended for Ukrainian river usage. I'm assuming they are intended for the Dnieper River in the south between Kherson and Zaporizhzhya. They could prevent the Russians from evacuating Russian troops by the river if Ukrainian forces manage to isolate Russian troops north of the river stalled pressing north on the left bank.

And Now For Something Completely Different

Meming you isn't the right thing to do. How can I ever blog things that I feel?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a repeat. But still totally true. I wonder why?

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Middle Economy

China's inevitable rise to dominance is hitting some speed bumps.

The Chinese are not going to supplant America:

China’s economy, long in decline, is now in freefall—thanks to Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s mismanagement. Case in point: This year, the U.S. economy is forecast to grow faster than China’s for the first time since 1976, with strong indications that China has entered a prolonged era of slow growth. More surprising is that Xi, in an attempt to stabilize China’s finances, has largely abandoned his ambitious plans to overhaul China’s growth model, choosing instead to double down on the very economic policies that got China into today’s economic bind in the first place.

Well, declining rates of growth, to be more precise.

Xi is making decisions that create this "freefall." But remember that maintaining the Chinese Communist Party's absolute control of China is the primary objective of the CCP regardless of what else must suffer to achieve it. China once thought economic growth was key to the CCP's rule. Now apparently that is no longer the case.

I recently addressed the population foundation of Peak China. It seemed clear that if China passed us by economically, China could not hold the lead.

I may have been optimistic about China taking the lead. Still, as I've written before, "In the future, when people speak of the 'American century,' we should be able to respond, "'be more specific.'" 

Really, people, stop swooning over Chinese allegedly near-genetic long-term planning ability. I mean, explain this failure of foresight.

UPDATE: This is timely! 

China is amazing, just not for the reasons most opine. The country will soon have traveled from preindustrial levels of wealth and health to postindustrial demographic collapse in a single human lifetime. With considerable time to spare.

Tip to Instapundit. And yeah, as Green observed, predictions of doom have been around for a while without coming true. But I never believed the very true demographic trends meant China would go down fast. Although politically, who knows?

NOTE: My most recent war coverage is here.

An Imperial Army?

As Russia seeks to rebuild its empire, as Putin recently justified the invasion of Ukraine, we see echos of an older imperial army in action.

Russia's army is smaller than America's but it has more combat brigades. One reason is that America's Army has a large portion dedicated to generating military units. This is what happens in Russia when the last elements of a brigade are sent to fight: 

In recent weeks, Russia probably started preparing to deploy the third battalion from some combat formations, the ministry says, while most brigades normally only committed a maximum of two of their three battalions to operations at any one time.

Third battalions within brigades are often not fully staffed, the MOD notes, and Russia will probably have to rely on new recruits or mobilised reservists to deploy these units to Ukraine.

"Deploying all three of their battalions simultaneously will likely reduce formations’ longer term capacity to regenerate combat power after operations," the UK defence ministry says.

That's what happens when you raid the entire brigade to send parts organized as battalion tactical groups (BTG) to war:

The Russian brigades that provide those BTGs can provide some replacements from the remainder and generate more replacements for those BTGs that the brigades formed, but that still means that the BTG is essentially the brigade in the field. And that support could be across the country too far to sustain the BTG in heavy combat.

As I understand it, some brigades can generate more than one BTG, but even combined those BTGs are less effective than deploying a 2-battalion brigade would be.

Mostly in that post I was focused on the BTG being the brigade in practice by scraping up the best of the brigade and putting it in one (or two) firepower-heavy battalion-sized unit. I didn't really think about the replacement role.

It is fascinating to see that 21st century Russia seemingly relies on the centuries-old former British practice of having a regiment deploy a battalion while the parent regiment remains at home to recruit and train new soldiers. Although by mixing and matching troops to generate a BTG, the Russians abandon the unit cohesion of that British system.

By sending what is left of the brigade to war, too, the Russians are eating their seed corn. I may be wrong about BTGs being a sign of brigade weakness. They may be functioning as intended (until now). Perhaps BTGs are a sign of weakness in the Russian army as a whole, reflecting the problem of a poorer but huge country fielding an army that emphasizes immediate combat power over sustainability. 

What does Russia do if this last squeezing of the stone doesn't provide enough power to defeat Ukraine? Will what's left of Russia's army be able to turn mobilized civilians into real soldiers when the brigades have been gutted of trained personnel and working equipment?

NOTE: My most recent war coverage is here.

Blood and Steel Return to Europe

The End of History is over. And the European Union Disneyland philosophy of a zone of peace in Europe that abandons primitive warfare to solve disputes is obviously a fantasy. America must not falter in defending its security interests in Europe.

This thinking is short-sighted:

Many Americans, not all of them Republicans, think that their country is already staking too much in Europe, when China remains the more dangerous adversary.

In World War II, Germany was the primary threat that America focused on defeating. That didn't mean that the U.S. ignored the Japanese who had unleashed war by attacking Pearl Harbor and expanding in the western Pacific. Let's resist the admittedly secondary Russian threat while Ukraine is willing to fight and stop Russia.  

The growing inability of America to fight on two fronts, first enshrined in the early "end of history days," is finally hitting us hard. The idea that we can choose to ignore Russia because China is a bigger threat could lead to a major defeat in Europe.

Certainly, Europe has the economic power to defeat Russia. Europe even has a minimal nuclear deterrent in Britain's and France's arsenals. It might even be enough to deter Russia if Russia's nuclear arsenal is no better maintained than its conventional military.

But European power is scattered in penny packets from the Arctic Sea to the Straits of Gibralter. European military power remains a potential:

As of now, even the best-armed, or least weak, European allies — Britain, France and Germany — would require months to put into the field a single battleworthy division.

The might and commitment of the US are indispensable. R.D. Hooker Jr., a former dean of the alliance’s defense college, wrote recently: “NATO must have the will to compete, and the US must lead and encourage.”

Even if Europe arms up in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, America is needed to knit together through NATO the scattered military power of Europe and make it a coherent fighting force. For all of Russia's weaknesses exposed in Ukraine, Russia at least had the capacity to concentrate military power from all across its territory to fight Ukraine.

If America retreats from Ukraine, Europe will be unable to sustain Ukraine's resistance for long, let alone help Ukraine counter-attack to win. If Europe is unable to stop Russia when it has a willing partner in Ukraine lacking the ability that only the West can provide, what will it do when Russia's victorious army returns to its Soviet borders in Central Europe?

A Europe driven to neutrality because it cannot create and mass power to match a smaller but ruthless Russia will set in motion a process that ejects America from Europe and risks a hostile power again controlling the vast economic, scientific, and demographic power of Europe. A nightmare scenario for America for over a century could become reality, whether under Russian domination or from a hostile European imperial entity evolved from the European Union. 

Who knows what the EU elites would surrender to get their empire?

Europe is an objective as much as it is a potential ally. If America loses Europe while increasing its guard in Asia, America will be weakened for that fight, forced to divert forces to the Atlantic to stand alone with perhaps only Britain at our side in the Atlantic. That's a basic reality of American security.

America must return a Army corps to Europe to hold Europe (see pp. 15-20). We lost our gamble of pulling it out. America's 10-year rule must be ended.

We must, as the initially cited author recounts Churchill saying in the dark days of World War II when the smart set advised making peace in the face of aggression, keep buggering on and pray that something will turn up. 

I'm not nearly the pessimist as the author is on Ukraine's ability to eject Russia from this year's conquests. But if Ukraine can do that with the West's help, it will be--as Wellington said of the defeat of Napoleon at Waterloo--"the nearest run thing you ever saw in your life." Western failure to help Ukraine should not be the margin of Russia's victory.

NOTE: My most recent war coverage is here.  

And Yet Putin Claims He is Restoring Russia's Glory

Putin's war in Ukraine is disastrous for Russia even if he somehow grinds out a win against smaller and weaker Ukraine. Russia can't even pretend it is an equal partner with China now.

Russia is now China's vassal: 

That second-fiddle role is not a scenario Putin would have envisioned when the Russian president decided to invade Ukraine in February, propelled by a desire to rebuild a bygone glory for his nation.

Well, Russia's policy of hiding its appeasement of China with hostility toward NATO led to the crippling of Russia's ground forces in Ukraine in a farcical effort to humiliate and cripple NATO, which posed no military threat. 

Putin really did follow Mussolini's path of trying to gain status with the senior partner by launching a war. And instead is demonstrating that its junior status isn't worse now only because there isn't a third partner:

Putin pines for Soviet glory days. Putin's threats to use his military give Russia more stature than its status as a regional military power with continents-spanning defense needs justify. Just like Mussolini enjoyed--until he used his military and exposed it for the sham it was.

So basically, Russia chose vassal status. Although what choice does Russia have now given the heavy losses in the airborne forces Russia relies on to reinforce its Far East?  

What might China now demand of its weakened and humiliated vassal?  

Strategery.

UPDATE: Examining the many faces of the Fuck-Up Fairy in Putin's invasion of Ukraine. 

UPDATE: Indeed:

The Russian Army's slipshod combat performance in Ukraine raises hard questions about the Kremlin's ability to wage conventional war against a peer enemy. That suggests the Kremlin's greatest geostrategic treasure, resource-laden Siberia, is vulnerable.

To whom? Not NATO, but communist China. For the first time in centuries China possesses a more powerful military than Russia. According to Beijing's propagandists, Siberia belongs to China.

The great leap forward in future history: China would enforce its territorial claim as Russia withers.

Opportunity is knocking for China.

UPDATE: The opportunity may come fast if Putin doesn't accept that his war is eroding Russian willingness to die or suffer for his war faster than his propaganda is eroding Western support for Ukraine.

Do read it all.

NOTE: My most recent war coverage is here.

The Winter War of 2022 On the Knife's Edge

Ukraine has survived and Russia's offensive seems to be grinding to a halt. Is this it? Or can either side do something that changes the apparent stalemate deeper inside Ukraine? Or will events away from the front lines be decisive?

Too often when one side wins a war it looks inevitable in retrospect. In reality, the outcome can sit on the knife's edge until the fighting tilts to one side and begins a growing advantage that leads to victory.

Russia's offensive on the narrow Severodonetsk salient has not culminated. But Ukrainian counter-attacks have not grown to a scale that can be called a counter-offensive. A forming consensus is that Ukraine can't win the war. And Russia is too big, it is said, to lose this war. 

The question of who is winning is complicated. Ukraine is losing territory. But Russia is losing far more of their army to capture that. As a general rule, I'd rather lose territory than troops. With troops you can regain lost territory. A hold-at-all-costs order to keep terrain will ultimately lose you both troops and territory.

So I don't see evidence that the war has tilted to Russia's side. Perhaps in the long run Russia could bring its weight to bear and overpower Ukraine. If Russia's economy, society, military, and powerful civilian elites can support such a big effort when they were promised a short and glorious special military operation.

But in the short run, Ukraine has a shot at exploiting shaky Russian morale and inability to replace losses in order to achieve a decisive battlefield victory--say retaking the territory in the south from Kherson to Melitopol--that shocks Russia into abandoning its occupation of Ukrainian territory taken this year. If Ukraine can get the weapons and supplies from NATO and can sustain the casualties to launch a counter-offensive.

The direction of the war is on the knife's edge. Don't get defeatist now about Ukraine's chances and create a self-fulfilling prophecy. And perhaps rather than solely focusing on a long war scenario, the West should look to see how it can help Ukraine tilt the advantage its way this summer and win this war. A short war is better than a long war. Food and energy are just two factors for that obvious assertion.

I can't rule out that widespread Western discussion of a long war is designed to obscure efforts to enable a Ukrainian counter-offensive to win a major battlefield victory before summer is over.

I'm going to try not following the news in real time to make updates every day, given the slow-motion nature of the current stage of fighting. You can check the ISW updates each evening here.

UPDATE: Severodonetsk is pretty much doomed. Russia has strengthened their air defenses in the Donbas. Ukraine made some serious strikes on Russian forces holding Snake Island.

This map shows the armies facing off. I can't believe it took me this long to find this information.

The Ukrainian brigades on the line or close to it seem to represent all the active duty army plus some reservists organized in brigades. No doubt many of the brigades are much smaller by now. I assume smaller reservist units have internal security and border duty, including the border with Belarus. But this appears to dash my hopes that Ukraine has a strategic reserve.

The map is from this CSIS publication, which has a key at the back.

I hope that Ukraine is holding the line with its pre-war army and mobilized reserve units while building a new army with regular cadres and mobilized reservists and new recruits using many Western weapons. Otherwise it will have to wait until it can pull brigades off the line to reconstitute them and prepare them for a counter-offensive. 

Russia's army holding the line is shaky but Ukraine's army is suffering the effects of fighting this long, too: 

Ukrainian troops are deserting battle while Russian troops are facing "troubled" morale as Russia's invasion of Ukraine could drag on for "years," officials said.

During the Iran-Iraq War, Iraq found that its units holding the line became worthless for maneuver warfare after adapting to holding trench lines against massive frontal assaults year after year. So Iraq built up its Republican Guard "palace guard" force into a mobile reserve (of 6 divisions, I believe). It carried out the offensives that finally broke the shaken Iranian ground forces that had battered themselves to pieces in repeated offensives.

I've long urged Ukraine to preserve their army even if it means giving up territory. Ukraine isn't doing that in Luhansk province. Why? Ukraine's tough defense in the Severodonetsk salient makes little sense unless a big counter-offensive is relatively imminent. But I can't rule out the tough defense is because politically Zelensky can't appear to be giving up territory. Even though it isn't the smart thing to do, it might be what he must do.

It's a pivotal time in the war. Who delivers the knock-out blow?

Weekend Data Dump

Getting to know you. Getting to know all about you: "The war in Ukraine has produced another bonanza of Russian weapons for the U.S. Air Force to scrutinize. For over half a century the U.S. Air Force has been on the lookout for Russian aircraft, missiles and electronic systems that were operational or could be made operational for testing. Ukraine is currently providing everything but aircraft to evaluate." The Ukrainians get the evaluations.

We know what the Democrats want to result from their farcical J6 show trial don't we?

Well, yes: "Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning to force the West to end its sanctions by causing a widespread famine, Yale historian Timothy Snyder argues." The refugees will then flow to Europe. This is a Russian counter-attack on Europe for supporting Ukraine. All the more reason to help Ukraine win rather than try to engineer a stalemate.

American Marines and Swedish troops practice to defend (or recapture) Gotland Island in the Baltic Sea. Russian control would interfere with sea support for the Baltic states on the front line of NATO.

I don't think it is true that the Russian invasion is tilting in Russia's favor. Russia had to shrink their offensive from Kiev to Kherson to the Donbas and now to the Severodonetsk salient. By focusing firepower on that narrow front Russia is indeed grinding forward. But at the price of high casualties in its own already depleted army. Like any war, the outcome may be on the knife's edge where a victory path could fall on either side.

Chinese-Russian friction in Central Asia. Russia's difficulties are an opportunity for China. China's inroads may not be a threat to Russian influence now. Eventually they will be. And it will all depend on whether China decides a "synchronized" vision no longer suits it.

Actually defending schoolchildren. Via Instapundit.

I've noted that the fact that Russian turrets blowing off when hit is no proof tanks are obsolete. I said that the weakness makes the tanks vulnerable to catastrophic kills. Without the weakness the tank would still be knocked out. Still, the Russian weakness means that the crew is less likely to survive. Which is a major problem separately from level of tank kill.

"Ferocious" Covid-19 outbreak in Peking. China did a lot of damage to the world by unleashing--through secrecy, incompetence, and/or malice--the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic on the world. It looks like those factors may even out the damage. Tip to Instapundit.

I just looked at the stock market. Please excuse me while I go change my armor.

I'm not impressed by claims that the J6 Committee has enough to indict Trump. Indicting is easy. And it is a way to make the process be the punishment even if the evidence for conviction is insufficient or even flimsy. Which is an abuse of power but all too common.

Moqtada al Sadr's bloc resigned from Iraq's parliament: "Iraqi leaders vowed Monday to move forward with efforts to form a government following the shocking resignation of 73 lawmakers from parliament during a prolonged political impasse." Does this provoke street violence by seemingly opening the path for pro-Iran legislators to form a government after the long impasse? I just want ballots rather than bullets to resolve this. If governments are no more lasting than Cold War Italy's, so what if that is the case? But in the back of my mind, my old worry pokes me.

Fine, they need space: "Space Marines may sound like a far-off concept, but in some ways, they are already here. That’s because your average Marine infantry grunts would have a hard time doing their job these days without a constellation of satellites more than 1,000 miles overhead." But don't insult my intelligence by calling them "Space Marines" until we have SMODs.

The Air Force now has an F-35 "aggressor squadron" for the Blue teams to practice fighting 5th generation stealth planes. Downgraded for frontal stealth only, for now, I assume. Are these early-production F-35s that aren't really ready for combat?

No! Way! "Sunday News Shows Spent Zero Minutes Covering Attempted Murder of Brett Kavanaugh." When someone from The Other does something horrible, that represents everyone from The Other. When someone on your side does something horrible, its just an aberration, so move along, nothing to see. You know where the media stands by what it covers and what it doesn't cover. 

How did Russia cause gasoline prices to rise so much when it isn't clear that Russian oil is off the market even a little bit? Just who isn't buying it? Tip to PJ Media.

The Army celebrated its 247th birthday last week. It shares the day with Flag Day.

How Russia is "saving" Ukrainians from "Nazis": "The Russian occupation is brutal by any standard, especially in areas taken during the first weeks of the invasion. These are mainly in the south and east. Areas Russia took in the north were retaken after about a month. This left behind very visible evidence of Russian looting, murder, wanton destruction and a hasty retreat that left behind many dead Russians."

Huh: "Iran likes to blame Israel for attacks on its nuclear program but there have been so many of them recently that Iran has to admit that Israel has a large network of agents in Iran. Worse yet, most of these operatives are Iranians who oppose the current government and the nuclear weapons program." 

Pelosi's dog whistle signal to kill conservative Supreme Court justices? If right-wing violence was really such a big threat this bill would have been passed already. Via Instapundit.

The Russians wet their pants.

A B-1 bomber task force deployed to Guam. Please tell me they carry naval mines and anti-ship missiles.

I'm told America should have reasonably enlightened autocrats to push a green agenda. Wait. What? Via Instapundit.

China crushed Hong Kong. Remember when we looked on with hope for pro-freedom protesters as China locked down the city and suppressed freedom of speech and assembly? Who knew they were just a bit ahead of us? We can still defend our freedoms. Perhaps Hong Kong will regain hope, too.

What fresh Hell is this?! At this point I want to believe our government is effing things up on purpose.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Russia has walked away from the Nato-Russia Founding Act with its invasion of Ukraine, says Nato's Jens Stoltenberg." Putin's legacy is a weakened Russian army, a strengthened NATO, and a China that calls the shots in their frenemy relationship.

What will Turkey get for allowing Finland and Sweden in NATO? I assumed we were haggling over the price. Yet Turkey is reaching out to Venezuela and Iran, reducing my hopes for repairing the relationship. Emphasize the "verify" now.

Assad has recovered enough from the multi-war to think about retaking Idlib province where jihadis under Turkey's protection still hold the region. With Russia focused on Ukraine does Iran have an opening to cement its position in Syria?

Sweden is sending Ukraine a lot of Carl Gustav recoilless rifles and some small, short-range RBS-17 anti-ship missiles and sniper rifles.

From the "Well, Duh" files: " Russia’s war in Ukraine is making clear to the U.S. Department of Defense that it must get logistics and sustainment right in the Pacific theater[.]" We've been so focused on northeast Asia for decades that we abandoned the ability to fight in the rest of the Pacific region. Sadly, logistics always take second place in favor of one more shiny new thing in the arsenal.

A line in the water: "The Taiwan Strait is an international waterway and Taiwan's government supports U.S. warships transiting it, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday, rebuffing claims from China to exercise sovereignty over the strategic passage." China's sovereignty position is dangerous. Best to nip that in the bud:

That 70's show: We'll figure it out. But not yet: "If my model follows course, the political system will not be able to solve the problems before the end of the decade. We will of course blame the politicians for what happens, as that is an American tradition. The irresistible process creates the pain, and the miracles demanded by the public will make things worse. The politicians will be blamed. But it clears out the system and readies us for the future."

This sounds like the proto-imperial European Union even if it is about Russia's current if shrunken empire: "What is the difference between a federation and an empire? A federation is defined by free entrance and exit of its members. Empires are maintained by force, while federations do not oppose their self-dissolution." The EU tried the force of entangling cheese regulations to keep Britain from exiting. Will the EU use force on the continent when another tries to leave?

American shipbuilding problems. 

Scaring China? "The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group, the only CSGs currently deployed in the eastern Pacific, together with amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA-7)[.]" Or conveniently deployed for destruction by China? I think of our carriers as the cavalry of 1914 in sea control roles. Useful to hunt down the wounded and finish them off after defeating an enemy; but worse than useless to reach that point.

Hostage standoff: The Air Force created this F-35 problem in an effort to get rid of the A-10. 

Not content to be the biggest moron ever to serve in the Senate or as secretary of state, John Kerry seeks to be a Renaissance Moron in all areas. Except his skill in marrying rich women, of course.

No! Way! "French President Emanuel Macron is calling on neighboring nations to support the continent’s defense-industrial base before looking abroad." Never let a crisis go to waste. 

The beatings will continue until gasoline prices improve. God help us. 

The Canada-Denmark struggle over Hans Island in the Nares Strait is over: "Officials from both countries, as well as Greenland, signed an agreement on Tuesday to resolve the long-standing fracas — the last remaining disagreement over a land border in the Arctic — with the Solomonic solution of dividing the island in two. Denmark gets about 60 percent of the island; Canada gets the rest." Word of the fate of the whiskey is not forthcoming.

France captured a senior Mali ISIL terrorist. May his interrogation and information exploitation lead to dead jihadis.

The Axis of Steal isn't that impressive, to me.

Medvedev mocked EU leaders visiting Ukraine. Big talk from Putin's fluffer.

The WHO will change the name of Monkeypox because the "nomenclature of this virus being African is not only inaccurate but is also discriminatory and stigmatizing[.]" I'm confused. How does "monkey" nomenclature imply African? I'm really comforted by how our betters are focused like a laser on the real problems.

Focused like a laser on real problems. Via Instapundit.

The contrast between Russian infantry cannon fodder tactics and Western trained and equipped infantry is high.

Pulling out bricks in the virtual walls.

Meanwhile in the war on terror that losing the Afghanistan campaign didn't end: "U.S.-led coalition forces captured a senior Islamic State leader in a military operation in northern Syria on Thursday, the coalition said."

Meanwhile in North Korea: "New satellite imagery may indicate North Korea is preparing to conduct another nuclear test at its Punggye-ri test site and could do so at any time[.]" One day North Korea will have actual nuclear weapons rather than devices that require hundreds of scientists and thousands of technicians to detonate.

Do we know how good the Chinese military is? An excellent question. But heck, I wonder if we know how good our own military is.

LOL. I was about to add an entry here and then noticed I'd published a post on the exact topic today. Scheduling posts well in advance has drawbacks.

All Political Violence Matters. But not to Democrats.

Battling inflation. My advice is that if you start to fight inflation, fight inflation. People need to believe the government is serious if we expect this to work. I suspect there will be Federal Reserve half measures under political pressure that neither fight inflation nor prevent higher unemployment and recession. Tip to Instapundit.

Latino Democrats are furious at the national party for losing a special election in Texas to a Republican Mexican-American (via Instapundit). Gosh, I wonder why?

China's subliminal offensive against the Philippines.

The KC-46A clusterfuck. I think this refueling aircraft program predates this blog. And still it does not work. Even its additional toilet was effed up.

I assume China wants to obscure Hong Kong's history as a British territory in order to deny that Western political rights ever gained a foothold in Hong Kong before China stomped on them. I'm not claiming Britain's full history of control was a freedom agenda. But before Britain left, they did introduce freedom.

Break it up for parts: "The FBI knew the Trump-Russia collusion narrative was utter bunk even as it suggested otherwise to Congress, the courts and the public early in 2017." The Bureau has lost our trust. Tip to Instapundit.

Who believed a Clinton pledge to refrain from lying? Tip to Instapundit.

Fire them all. They are clearly not needed. Private businesses should do what they want. But government civil service employees clearly can't be trusted to work from home. Tip to Instapundit.

Putin "says Russia's decision to start it's so called 'special military operation' was difficult - but was 'forced on us'. Yes, the Fuck-Up Fairy was persuasive:

The man who claimed he is only reclaiming territory that the Russian empire once had said this?? "Western nations still think in the last century’s terms - treating other states as colonies." Putin: Making Russia Grate Again.

Russia says it is surviving sanctions just fine. Some amount of that is bravado. But I don't know how bad it is. Before the war I was skeptical of sanctions. I was honestly shocked when people said it was going to be super effective: "Are sanctions really going to wreck Russia's economy? Via Instapundit. I admit I was skeptical that sanctions could seriously harm a large country in the long run. We'll see if a long war is even an option for Russia, I guess. But if sanctions are really that effective, Russia might decide nukes are the only weapon to end them." What do I know, I thought. I still don't know what the real situation is.

I don't see China being the winner of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. From the angle of Russia being a useful ally for China, Russia has crippled their military, enlarged and strengthened European NATO, and made it necessary for Russia to focus their limited military power in Europe even if Russia wins this war against Ukraine. China gets a vassal, but how useful is the modern version of Mussolini's Italy? Still, China could be the winner if you consider Russia and China are frenemies and not allies.

Ukraine wants tanks, among other things, from the West. I've read that Ukraine has lost up to half of various types of its heavy weapons. We hear of Russian tanks suffering catastrophic turret-popping destruction. What about Ukraine's tanks that are the same basic design? Are they suffering the same fate to Russian anti-tank weapons? I assume so. But maybe Ukraine handles its tanks more proficiently. I have not seen reports on that angle.

A possible thaw in Saudi-Turkish relations? They are rivals for influence in the Middle East. But they can share a hatred of Shia Iran whose nuclear ambitions threaten both of them.

China launched their third aircraft carrier--of the same scale as an American one--but it isn't a game changer. Sure. It's playing the old game. On the bright side it may indicate that China wants to patrol its trading and vassal empire rather than go to war. Carriers are good for the former but not the latter. But building super carriers when smaller carriers would suffice for that confuses me. China counts on sinking our carriers with their anti-access/area denial weapons. Do they think we can't return the favor?

Boris Johnson wants Britons to avoid Ukraine fatigue. That's a potential problem for the West in general.

Why isn't Biden unleashing American energy production by at least reversing his orders to hobble it?

Can the Winter War of 2022 be understood with Korean War template? Interesting. That hadn't occurred to me. Better that than the Vietnam War template.

Team work: "A U.S. Army Patriot missile defense system and an Air Force F-35A Lightning II aircraft combined Wednesday to shoot down a dummy cruise missile over the Pacific, according to an Army spokesman." When sensor and shooter are separate.

After the Goons of August Russian invasion of Georgia, I called for REPORPOL. NATO seems to want that: "'What often takes time is to move heavy stuff, to move the armored vehicles, ammunition and supplies,' but pre-positioning more weapons and equipment would make it 'much easier and faster to reinforce when needed,' Stoltenberg said[.]"

State Department: "Nations that side with Vladimir Putin will inevitably find themselves on the wrong side of history." I see this nonsense is back. Enemies have their own side of history. Pray they don't write the history.

The Week in Pictures.

Reaction: "The war by the Kremlin in Ukraine since February has led allies to rethink strategies and to agree that NATO forces should be present in greater numbers on that flank." Adding NATO troops to the defense of the Baltic states is too risky.

America's island-hopping strategy: "Rather than invading and clearing islands such as Saipan and Tinian, U.S. troops would likely set up airfields and air defense systems on them and then defend those islands against Chinese air and missile attacks, said Dean Cheng, a China expert with the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington, D.C." Good. Beats invading and clearing.

Celebrate freedom won at high cost: "[June 19th] has been celebrated annually around the country since 1865 when a Union General arrived in Galveston, Texas, and informed the enslaved African Americans that the Confederacy had lost the war and that they were free as per the Emancipation Proclamation, which was inked in 1863. In many parts of the country, the proclamation was not implemented until the army enforced it." I now fly the American flag on this patriotic holiday, joining Memorial Day, Flag Day (Army's birthday), July 4th, September 11th, and Veterans Day. The funny thing is, I'm sure Democrats supported this national holiday hoping conservatives would reject it because Democrats proposed it. I say, embrace freedom from government control.

 

The commander of the British army alerts his troops that they now must be prepared to fight on the continent: "The new head of the British Army has set out a rallying cry to his troops: to be ready to confront the renewed threat from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine." I did say I'd miss the British Army of the Rhine. Ah, events.

So, what are enemies up to?

I'm not going to lie, I thought 20,000 dead Russian soldiers would have had an effect inside Russia by now. Secrecy, government oppression, and perhaps a disproportionate number of casualties far away in the provinces among non-ethnic Russian soldiers are stifling that reaction. Sooner or later that "special military operation" wall crumbles and Russia sees the pain of war, right? And Western intelligence agencies are chipping away at that wall, right? 

Explain to me again who the racists who don't think Black live matter are? Tip to Instapundit.

"Liberté Obé, égalité, fraternité".

But perhaps I share too much:

Where does the line form to get uncancelled for proposing this explanation in early 2020? "Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of WHO had recently confided to a senior European politician that the most likely explanation was a catastrophic accident at a laboratory in Wuhan, where infections first spread during late 2019, as reported by Daily Mail."

One sense that Russia might "win" this war that is decimating its military and reputation is that it might wreck Ukraine for a generation. But after a generation Russia will have lost the war clearly, if nothing else changes that path. Time does that. In 1955, the Korean War had America "winning" a poor, authoritarian, war-wrecked country. By 1985 the war looked like a shaky draw. Today, with South Korea an advanced democracy able to contribute to Western security rather than be only a consumer of Western security, we won the Korean War.

Russia beats its chest and flings poo in Danish territorial waters.