Thursday, February 10, 2022

The Biggest Lie in a Forest of Lies?

Russia lies a lot. Quantity certainly has a quality all its own. But is Russia slipping in a really big nuclear lie in that forest of lies?


The Russians talk big. But reality isn't as impressive.

Russia has big plans to upgrade their ICBM force:

You see in the media multiple types of conventional war scenarios between Russia and Ukraine, so it is easy to forget that Russia has the latest nuclear-equipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM). These ICBMs back up anything Russia does militarily and are part of Vladimir Putin’s dream team of strategic weapons. The Kremlin continues to modernize its ICBMs. The fearsome RS-28 Sarmat is coming online and the increasingly lethal RS-24 Yars is already operational.

Russia announces lots of big plans. 

Super carriers.  

Stealth fighters.  

A super tank.  

But nothing much comes of them after the press releases or leaks fade. 

Understanding these conventional weapon boasts as misinformation explains why Russia relies on nukes

But what about their nukes? The Russians even boasted about a friggin' Kraken nuclear torpedo.

Are Russia's "big plans" for nukes another Potemkin project? 

[Russia's problems developing their long-range nuclear missiles] bolstered my impression that the Russians can't afford to maintain their huge nuclear arsenal. Honestly, that's been my impression given the state of the Russian military that has pockets of excellence and a slice of adequate military power resting on top of a far larger portion of their military that shouldn't be sent to control a Pussy Riot concert let alone combat.

The Russians have lied massively about their nukes (quoting a book's text):

At one point Khrushchev said that we built missiles like sausages. I said then, "How can you say that, since we have only two or three?" He said, "the important thing is to make the Americans believe that. And that way we prevent an attack." And on those grounds our entire policy was based. We threatened with missiles we didn't have. That happened in the Suez crisis, and the Iraqi crisis.

So loud strategic nuclear weapons boasts are suspect. I worry more about what Russia is completely silent on.

Russia does have a broader problem on truth. Is their nuclear arsenal really an isolated pocket of military excellence?