I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.
Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: The Iran War of 2026 Seeks a Victory Condition
In case you missed it on Substack: Surprise On the Modern Battlefield
In case you missed it on Substack: The 2026 National Defense Strategy Report
In case you missed it on Substack: Russia is a Liability as China's Wartime Ally
The Taliban in Afghanistan have severe problems. Five years after we decided to lose the war, the Taliban’s continuing weakness demonstrates that we screwed the pooch in a winnable war.
So no need for Tomahawk? “France is building long range drones for Ukraine. Details were not revealed, but the same French firm produced an AAROK long-distance drone with a 22 meter wingspan carrying a payload of about three tons.”
Not as prepared as we thought: “Trump administration officials conceded during a private briefing on Capitol Hill this week that Iran’s Shahed-136 drone is proving more disruptive on the battlefield than the Pentagon had anticipated[.]” Sh*t happens.
The Shield of the Americas is intended as a multilateral body for unified action against drugs and foreign threats to security in the Western Hemisphere—the foundation of American global power.
Nimitz heads to sea to train prior to one last mission before decommissioning.
Testing a Minuteman III ICBM with MIRVs.
Switzerland is looking at a European system to supplement their Patriot system, whose missiles are in high demand right now. And fewer F-35s because of costs.
Britain is allowing America to use British bases to support “defensive operations” in the air campaign against Iran.
Two unnamed Gulf countries are upset that America didn’t warn them about the coming war. Really? The build up should have been a clue. And to be fair, the warning would have made it to Tehran. Also, nukes?
Iran’s continued strikes on Gulf countries is renewing calls for cheaper air defenses in the region. Sure, make that a priority before prestige high-tech stuff that isn’t being used, eh?
The joint American-British “Project Flytrap” for multi-echelon offensive counter-drone capabilities.
Mixing quality and quantity of munitions for the Pacific theater.
North Korea tested a long-range cruise missile (with nuclear implications) from its new destroyer.
An Iranian strategist with ties to the mullah regime says Iran has no intention to accept a ceasefire. I’m sure Iran didn’t expect to have to endure more than a brief, limited assault. Maybe they are right that they can outlast us. But they also may not have a choice but to try.
The search for Syria’s post-Assad future. I don’t know what it is. But I’m pretty sure we can’t tame the Islamists.
I reject the idea that Trump’s preferred military strategy is a totally new way to use our military power. It is basically an aerial version of old-fashioned punitive naval expeditions or mobile ground raids into enemy territory to inflict pain. They reduce costs—but have limits, too.
Sounds good: “France is working with partner countries to facilitate increased shipping transit through the Strait of Hormuz once the most intense phase of hostilities is over[.]”
I’m assuming an American destroyer is the system: “A ballistic missile launched from Iran was neutralized by NATO defence systems while entering Turkish airspace, Turkey’s Defence Ministry said on Monday.”
The U.S. is unhappy with the scale of Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil supplies. I guess this shows we haven’t decided to punish the mullahs over the hope of overthrowing them.
F**k. A Navy missile seems to have hit that Iranian school rather than an Iranian air defense missile falling back to Earth. Iran didn’t use them as human shields; we didn’t deliberately try to kill children; and this is heartbreaking. Although the evidence as described seems weak.
In regard to escorting civilian shipping through the Persian Gulf, it would help to have Navy in a Box.
The X-76 to reduce reliance on vulnerable airfields. But can dispersing maintenance, rearming, and other logistics match that ability?
American B-1 bombers arrived in Britain to conduct “defensive” missions in the war on Iran from a British base.
Ukraine is “fielding thousands of [UGVs], which perform logistics, engineering, and infantry support tasks. Some even drive explosives into Russian positions as kamikaze robots.” This is important. But I have developed strong doubts about direct-fire combat UGVs.
Is Epic Fury doomed? Bold stand claiming to know what the objective will turn out to be.
Note this is done without the public angst in Europe on the same issue: “The U.S. Defense Department and its Indo-Pacific partners are undertaking several initiatives to ensure the region has a strong industrial base ready to respond to warfighter needs[.]”
Mexico recoils from fighting drug cartels, saying America must contain “the voracious American appetite for illicit drugs, and … illegal arms trafficking.” Decades ago Mexico’s government said the same thing and enjoyed drug money fueling their economy. Now it fears the cartels.
Canadian provinces are getting restive after “Trudeau’s lost decade featured not only stagnant growth but also flatlining living standards and soaring housing prices.” And don’t forget tighter federal control.
Okay, but America has never had the raw military power to deter all enemies. And enemies may not judge our strength by raw military power. Jihadis calculate with different variables. Still, a good reminder that diplomacy is a tool to support national interests.
The limits of machine guns: “Ukraine is producing interceptor drones to destroy Russian Geran attack drones flying high enough to avoid Ukrainian truck-mounted heavy machine-guns that destroy low-flying Shahed 136 drones.”
True: “Verified combat results that demonstrate Operation Epic Fury has achieved U.S. military and political objectives will determine the length of war, not a calendar with an arbitrary deadline.” The objective is as yet unclear. Which is fine and not a scandal, as we match ends to means.
Russia is building up forces in Kaliningrad and the Baltic region. Kaliningrad is both a threat and opportunity in NATO’s main front in the Baltic region.
The intelligence leak is shameful—and criminal?—and harms our maximalist goal—but not necessary goal.
Calling the war on Iran a “little excursion” is wrong—even if an attempt to calm markets is understandable—when we ask military personnel to risk their lives. But don’t pretend this is new. Remember “time-limited, scope limited military action”?
Sh*t got real: “Finland’s government has proposed scrapping a Cold War-era blanket ban on nuclear weapons on its territory[.]”
Meanwhile in the eastern Pacific: “The U.S. military said it killed six men Sunday in a strike on an alleged drug-smuggling vessel in the eastern Pacific Ocean[.]”
About 75% of Americans oppose sending ground troops into Iran. That’s reasonable. Iran is too large and mountainous. Yet I no more want to rule out Army operations there than I do in INDOPACOM against China. Never let an enemy rule out a threat.
Never mind earlier reports that Nimitz has been recalled for one last mission in CENTCOM. She is sailing around South America on her way to her final home port, and is “not certified for national tasking.” My friends and I geeked out about her when she joined the fleet.
A snapshot of where the Navy’s CSGs and ARGs are underway.
Rather than “use them or lose them” as fast as possible, Iran seems to be trying to keep their missile threat intact. This sort of reminds me of Saddam’s attempts to preserve his air force by burying planes in the desert and by flying planes into Iran for the duration of the war (but Iran kept them).
Capturing, securing, and evacuating Iran’s enriched uranium would require a large ground force and not just special forces. I did not think it was a reasonable mission at this point.
Israel and America are striking pro-Iran militias in Iraq; so far those militias are fairly quiet. I’m not hearing complaints from the Iraqi government about the strikes.
War: “The United States military announced Tuesday that its forces had struck and destroyed 16 of Iran’s minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz.”
The Army is getting a new hand grenade. No explicit mention of whether it is for left- and right-handers. That was an issue for me in Basic Training. Also, the picture disturbs me. I was taught all fingers go on the safety lever.
The Navy began an Arctic exercise that included a nuclear attack sub breaking through the ice.
Army HIMARS have apparently been firing anti-ship weapons at Iranian warships.
Will all Air National Guard units that are losing F-16s to retirement get replacement aircraft?
Learning how to operate artillery in the Arctic under drone threats. Drones need to adapt to operate there, too.
Hmm: “After the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran began, the Chinese air force stopped flying around Taiwan—and the reason isn’t at all clear.” If China ends up capturing Pratas Island after what turns out to be a maintenance stand-down, don’t be shocked.
My thoughts on our “failure” to learn from Ukraine’s drone defense experience before taking on Iran.
There is some truth to this observation about sustaining medium-sized wars, but let’s not get misty eyed over the unity of global war against peer enemies. And we do have an option of converting the current medium war against Iran into a limited war.
I’d say refraining from declaring mission accomplished in Venezuela is from the “Well, Duh” files, but winning the first battle is absolutely not winning the war.
Britain needs an army but it probably won’t get it. My dream of the British Army of the Vistula dies.
The French elites spent so much time telling people that their worries and problems were “fascist” that more people became willing to endure that slur to have their worries and problems addressed.
Too many are taking counsel of their fears over dealing with the severe Iranian mullah threat rather than focusing on causing fear in the ranks of the mullahs. What is “reckless” is letting the mullahs get nukes.
The way the EU and Britain have rewarded Gazans for their rape, murder, and kidnapping invasion of Israel, I’d have thought they’d reward West Bank Israeli settlers with their own state, too.
Iran hit several cargo ships near Iran.
Well, yes: “Israeli officials in closed discussions have acknowledged there is no certainty the war against Iran will lead to a collapse of its clerical government[.]” From the start I judged overthrowing and pummeling Iran’s government are parallel objectives.
The U.S. may need to shift air defense units in South Korea to CENTCOM. Since the Cold War, reliance on the Air Force for air supremacy led the Army to get rid of a lot of air defense assets. That must change.
Tragically, an American missile may have hit that Iranian school based on bad intelligence. Damn. On the other hand, how many more school children will be at risk if Iran gets nukes? Or at risk just from terrorism if the regime continues?
Western Hemisphere security: “Ecuador will launch a major offensive against criminal organizations in three western provinces this weekend with logistical support from the United States[.]”
Australia will deploy an E-7 aircraft to CENTCOM and replenish the UAE’s supply of AIM-120 air-to-air missiles.
The crew of a Chinese helicopter behaved like total a-holes too near an Australian helicopter over the Yellow Sea.
Huh: “U.S. Marines and soldiers rehearsed inserting mobile missile launchers capable of long-range precision strike and anti-shipping missions across the Hawaiian Islands last month ahead of Western Pacific deployments.” My speculation.
American troops in the field can find and strike targets much faster than bureaucrats back home can develop and field new weapons. That has always been the case, but I get the point.
Virginia boats have become the backbone of America’s submarine fleet. And collectively they will replace our four SSGNs and their Tomahawk arsenals.
“Alaska will kill you.” Indeed. How about POLARCOM?
Israel hit an Iranian nuclear facility.
Iran demands reparations to end war. A bold strategy Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.
China is mediating between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Indonesia has blue water naval ambitions.
The dangers of a weak Iran? LOL. I’ll take my chances with that outcome given the problems with a confident and well-armed mullah-run Iran. Add in nukes …
Yeah, the West fought Islamist “over there” for nearly two decades, only to welcome Islamists "over here" (and subsidize them).
Cuba says it wants to talk to America. Thug states always want to talk to save themselves. Too often, we fall for it.
Every time I see a Tai Chi commercial on YouTube I want to throw a brick through the screen.
Strategic warfare: “Ukrainian forces conducted a Storm Shadow cruise missile strike against a critical Russian microchip manufacturing plant in Bryansk City on March 10.”
An American refueling aircraft crashed inside Iraq, apparently after a refueling mishap with another plane. The other plane safely landed. All six KC-135 crew died in the crash. F**k.
In the Red Sea, Ford “experienced a non-combat fire Thursday that was successfully doused, the U.S. Navy announced.” Damage control is vital.
While this could be seen as a failure to anticipate, it may have been a matter of not wanting to telegraph the start of the war: “The U.S. Navy is not yet ready to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but it will happen.” We’ll see if it includes Marines (or Army airmobile troops).
I don’t understand the professed confusion about America’s war objective against Iran. It has been clear to me from day one. But it is unclear which objective will be achieved.
Hmm: “Israel renewed its strikes on Beirut on Thursday, as it threatened to expand operations and seize territory in Lebanon if Hezbollah did not stop its attacks.” I’ve been skeptical that long-term success is possible without a ground effort.
This deal would be a form of an American security guarantee: “Ukraine is awaiting White House approval for a major drone production agreement proposed by Kyiv last year[.]” I imagine we have a greater sense of urgency now.
Romania granted America permission to use bases there for operations against Iran. Also, ahem.
Meanwhile in SOUTHCOM.
LOL. As if.
If Iran was pummeling America as hard as America (and Israel) is pummeling Iran, you’d laugh at anyone claiming time is on America’s side.
The Navy has revived its interest in railguns. Good.
Why in the world would we use SEAL Team 6 to capture Iran’s Kharg Island oil export facility when we can shut it down with air strikes, rockets, or sea mines—or seizing any tanker that departs there with a full load?
The American shift from expensive long-range missiles to much cheaper and more plentiful short-rang precision bombs after knocking down Iran’s air defense door demonstrates one way to cut the exquisite weapon Gordian Knot dilemma.
If you think Iran can endure being pummeled by America as long as they have to, explain why you think a nuclear-armed, mullah-run Iran could be deterred from using nukes against even another nuclear power.
Europeans can’t consider Iran somebody else’s war? Of course they can. All they have to do is firmly believe someone else will be the nuclear weapons target and someone else will then deal with Iran.
America needs resilience in the vast supply chain of raw materials and critical components that build and sustain our war machine.
I recall we sent elements of our OPFOR to Iraq for a similar purpose: “Russia recently sent five of its military instructors to Ukraine for three months to gather information and gain experience in the latest combat methods.”
Make it so: “While the United States Navy has long used modular construction techniques for its submarines, it now wants to expand this to include construction of its new class of FF(X) Frigates.” We need that technique.
The European Union plans to destroy democracy in order to save it. Well of course it does. “Democracy Shield”, indeed. Shielding the EU from democracy, eh?
Yes: “Ten days ago, the Trump administration decided to win a 47-year-long war waged by Ayatollah Iran against America and -- at various times -- two dozen other nations.” I don’t know if we get final victory in this campaign. But I’m reasonably sure we’d lose without it.
If China invades Taiwan’s Pratas Island, expect it to be surrounded by a Chinese fishing fleet militia. Hell, could PLA troops PVA concerned individuals on the fishing vessels simply take the weakly held island? But I imagine the CCP would want their modern military filmed in victory.
I’ve argued the War on Terror now requires quieter but persistent mowing the grass overseas. Bizarrely, we brought the war on Islamist terror here. Tip to Instapundit.
People not familiar with the military manufactured a steak and lobster scandal where none exists: “Our relationship and understanding of our military and military families is broken.” To our troops, enjoy the steak and lobster. You earn it every day. Tip to Instapundit.
I heard that China sold Iran advanced anti-ship missiles and that our Navy shot down all of them. Huzzah! But I’m not finding the purported Reuters story. I found a February story about talks to sell them. But nothing about actual sale and use. Filed as low-confidence RUMINT for now.
So … they’re doing what Trump wants: “Canada to Expand Military Presence in Arctic, Following Trump Threats[.]” Mission accomplished!
The U.S. temporarily eased oil sanctions on Russia to ease price pressures from the Iran War of 2026. This buys time for Russia’s economy.
It amuses me that some say the war against Iran is really about China. As if Iran isn’t bad enough now and wouldn’t be a catastrophe with nukes. Also, effects aren’t neatly siloed.
Iran: “The US-Israeli combined force continued to target Iranian internal security infrastructure on March 13 in order to degrade the regime’s repressive capabilities.” Netanyahu said they are setting “optimal conditions” for regime overthrow. Which fits with my initial view.
It’s fascinating that some claimed the 2014 Russian invasion of the Donbas that continued for years was a brilliant “frozen conflict”; but when the campaign against Iran nears two weeks The Atlantic can speak of U.S. problems “the longer the Iran war drags on.” Via Instaundit.
CENTCOM hit 90+ military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub. As a reinforced Marine battalion on USS Tripoli heads for CENTCOM, Trump says we could destroy the island’s oil facilities. Will we take it (without damage??) to coerce Iran into letting oil traffic sail? My view.
A capability useful in the western Pacific: “US forces used ATACMS to sink Iranian warships during Operation Epic Fury, the top US general said.”
An argument for regime change? “the Strait of Hormuz will re-open only with the consent of the Iranian government. No amount of U.S. naval power can either force passage or safeguard transit.” But the claim is wrong. Depending on the price we and allies are willing to pay.
You can market it as a disguised retreat: ““This is a good time to declare victory and get out,” David Sacks, Trump’s AI and crypto tsar, said on the All-In podcast he co-hosts.” But that has always been a real victory option depending on facts on the ground.
An unhealthy obsession by “Not-Americans” up north led their commander to sacrifice the fingers and toes of their troops, proving that Canadian troops are not immune to Arctic conditions. What part of “the Arctic wants to kill you and break your stuff” is unclear? Via Instapundit.
Beginning of the end or end of the beginning for Cuba’s commies? Or the pause that refreshes them, I suppose. Tip to Instapundit.
America helps Ukrainian troops own the night (and fog).
Meanwhile on the Subcontinent (and adjacent Afghanistan).
CRS report to Congress on Epic Fury. Good but brief background information.
Trump on the war with Iran: ““Let me say we’ve won. You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won. We won, in the first hour it was over, but we won.” I suspect this is letting Israel know the clock is ticking on their regime-change plan.
As I said: The false choice between defeating Iran and deterring China. Via Instapundit.
Huh: “Protesters took to the streets in a violent night of unrest in Cuba as demonstrators chanted ‘Down with Communism’ and attacked Communist party offices[.]” Via Instapundit.
Ukraine’s suicide drone with AI target identification and terminal guidance. This was predictable.
Xi seems serious: “Xi seems unwilling to halt the purges at the cost of military effectiveness. These are Xi’s priorities and after things settle down, planning to take Taiwan can proceed again.” Hopefully the purges are just spitting in the ocean.
Pressure: “A Swedish court on Sunday ordered the detention of the Russian captain of a ship that was suspected to be sailing under a false flag in the Baltic Sea[.]”
Iran continues to bombard Israel.
