America and India are drawing closer together as we both confront China and as Putin's invasion of Ukraine has forfeited any Russian option but being China's vassal. What should the America-India relationship look like?
The era of great power competition calls for Great Power Partnerships. Size matters. As the United States engages in competitive or adversarial relationships with Asian and Eurasian powers China and Russia, it is prudent for it to seek a Great Power Partnership. Conversely, India is engaged in localized hostilities with its neighbors China and Pakistan, and finds its one-time friend Russia reduced to being a dependent of China. Realpolitik calls for the largest American and Asian nations, as democracies, to forge a Great Power Partnership to their mutual advantage.
Since the Bush 43 administration and subsequent Democratic and Republican administrations, America has forged closer ties with India to counter China's growing air and naval threat in the western Pacific.
And India, despite a long record of non-alignment during the Cold War with a sizable dose of anti-Americanism (to be fair, we did support Pakistan for a long time until their support for jihadis in Afghanistan and elsewhere got to be too much for us to let slide), is cooperating as the Chinese threat to India's territory continues to grow.
India would also like to push their naval shield further east. The Andaman Islands are a major barrier. That shield gives India options during a land border struggle with China. And a forward shield would limit China's ability to exploit its land-based missile threat to India's navy.
And keeping Taiwan fighting would really extend the shield far from India. The alignment for India to link up with is already forming:
The leaders of America and Japan unveiled a lengthy list of defense agreements Wednesday in what U.S. President Joe Biden called “the most significant upgrade in our alliance since it was first established.”
The two countries will improve their respective command-and-control systems, form an industrial council to build weapons together, network their missile defense systems with Australia’s and start a joint exercise with the United Kingdom, among other agreements. For the first time, America will also adjust its force structure in Japan to better work with Tokyo’s defense forces.
While America would benefit from a China focused on interior threats, India doesn't have to worry about America causing China to pose a threat to India. China is doing that all on its own with persistence over time. And India could help themselves and other democracies by using whatever influence it still has to flip Russia to a position of strategic sanity.
America and India must seriously think about how to deepen our defense ties and complicate China's strategic position. And if the West helps Ukraine enough, perhaps even Putin will see that getting out of Ukraine to repair relations with the West is the best Russian--and his own personal--survival strategy. That could be India's opportunity to flip Russia.
UPDATE: Timely:
As India’s ‘Act East’ policy focussing on Southeast Asia moves into its 10th year, it is time for New Delhi to spell out more clearly how it aims to enhance its security and strategic partnerships with ASEAN nations.
That's the step before a Fight East policy.
I deleted the link about using DALL-E for the image. Grabbed that from the InterTubes. Bad week to quit sniffing glue, I guess.
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