Are we missing the Iranian nuclear weapons forest because of the Hamas War trees?
Does Iran-backed violence in the Middle East create "a smokescreen behind which Iran can push toward a bomb"? That was my worry early on after the October 7th Hamas invasion.
Although it doesn't seem to be a deliberate plan it could be the practical result of the Hamas murder and rape spree inside Israel. This has focused the attention of the world on one group of violent people who seemingly prefer poverty and the opportunity to kill Jews over building prosperity in the land they hold and building a future.
As the war in Gaza drags on, why did Iran end its long policy of avoiding direct, open conflict with Israel? Iran's Arab proxies are supposed to be the sword that spares Iran itself. Iran's April missile and suicide drone barrage on Israel ended that limit on what has been a quasi-war in the shadows.
Israel responded with strikes that demonstrated Israel's reach and what it could target if it chose to get serious. And Israel's strikes weren't batted out of the sky with apparent ease. Iranians might notice that.
So Iran let Israel open the door to future Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities inside Iran.
Is Iran desperate? I wondered if Hezbollah told Iran that if Iran is so eager to strike Israel big that it can damn well do it itself without Hezbollah taking all the risk. Is that why Iran openly struck Israel directly?
Victor Hanson notes the possibility that Hezbollah took a pass on dying for Iran. Hanson thinks Iran's regime could be on the ropes. I've long hoped Iranians themselves would rid us of those troublesome clerics. But despite rising opposition to the mullah regime, the regime holds on. Is the regime teetering now? Could a hard push send it toppling?
Still, at the other end of explanations as I noted at the start, I wonder if Iran is exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to make the final dash to nuclear weapons. Does Iran's direct attack on Israel reveal the mullahs' confidence rather than desperation?
I've long wondered if Iran would exploit the intense focus on its enrichment status to hide its acquisition of nuclear weapons from North Korea. Iran's rulers are nutballs--not stupid--I argued. If enrichment triggers an Israeli or even an American strike, Iran would want nukes before it can produce the warhead material itself.
North Korea has to get the nukes to Iran, of course. But North Korea could have hidden the nuclear weapons in the massive shipments of ammunition to Russia--including ballistic missiles--that it agreed to send at the end of last year. And Iran's weapons supply line to Russia could conceal the weapons' final delivery stage to Iran.
The only bright side to this speculation is that Iran's barrage demonstrated that its missiles aren't very reliable yet. Yes, the ballistic missiles that failed so often to even launch would be the missiles to carry nuclear weapons (with a Thanks Obama! for that development).
Maybe Iran is in bad shape and going down. That would certainly be good, as Hanson observed:
Without Iran, the Middle East might have had a chance to use its enormous oil and natural gas wealth to lift its 500 million people out of poverty rather than to be mired in constant tribal and religious anti-Israeli, anti-American, and anti-Western terrorism.
Iran is the Gordian Knot linking and exacerbating the region's many problems.
But maybe Iran's more open conflict with Israel indicates Iran is finally getting very near its objective of possessing nuclear weapons.
Rest assured that Biden will see nothing even as it is happening.
Have a super sparkly day.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
