Is Secure Projection Our Power Projection Weakness?

Can America secure the lines of communication from bases in the continental United States to the campaign area overseas?

Yes:

China does not need to destroy American combat power to gain an advantage. It simply needs to delay it. Every day that equipment sits in a rail yard, every hour a port is offline, every aircraft waylaid by corrupted logistics data or disrupted communications creates exactly the kind of friction an adversary seeks during the opening days of a conflict.

Power projection is military power multiplied by projection capabilities. 

If China can reduce the second factor, the first factor is reduced where the product is calculated in the theater of war.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Air Cavalry or Island Hoppers?

 

I’m skeptical of deep attack helicopter missions behind enemy lines and deep air assault missions, which is part of what the Army wants its new MV-75 to do: 

Air assault raids under hostile fire, forcible entry seizing enemy ground, life saving medical evacuation, island-hopping in the Pacific, logistical support and high-speed force transport .. are just a few of the many operations the U.S. Army’s 101st Airborne has planned for its newly arriving MV-75 Cheyenne tiltrotor aircraft.

But I am fully on board the island-hopping in one part of the Pacific. Although this new division's MDTF is seemingly more in need of the M-75 (and something larger, too, for its large truck-fired missiles) for the Taiwan mission, no? 

Or maybe add more compact missile systems to the MDTF. Not every missile needs to move from the Philippines to Taiwan, eh?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the U.S. Army.

The Winter War of 2022 Faces a Performance Review

 

Is Ukraine’s internal drama over military leadership not really about satisfying public dissatisfaction of how the war is going? Despite recent successes, the war nears 4-1/2 years with no end in sight to the sacrifices in lives, resources, and lives derailed to cope with the war. Of course people are getting restless notwithstanding the gratitude for not being conquered by Russia. But what if the public drama obscures the preparations to exploit Ukraine’s recent small but noticeable gains in the ground war that get much less attention than the flashy aerial drone campaigns that could enable expansion of the ground gains in potentially decisive fashion?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Two MEFs Abreast

In case you missed it on Substack: What if China Reclaims Its Pacific Coast Territory?

In case you missed it on Substack: The Proto-Asian NATO

In case you missed it on Substack: The Thin Blue and Yellow Line

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Speed is Life

The past masters of armored warfare who once held the land-speed record in the Middle East have waged slow, methodical, firepower based attritional warfare against Hamas and Hezbollah. That doesn't seem ideal to me.

Iran is not stronger as a result, as the author states. But yes, Israel’s careful, slow-paced ground campaigns were a problem: 

This approach has saved many soldiers' lives, but carries with it serious strategic drawbacks. A slower military pace permits the enemy to retreat and maintain itself as a military organization, and extends the length of the conflict. 

A slow, methodical campaign did not save soldiers’ lives. Nor was the slow campaign more compassionate for civilians. Especially not when the enemy deliberately uses human shields.

My view about Hezbollah was that an Israeli ground campaign should have been fast and deep. In the end during the current war, did Israel just screw the pooch at an amazingly fast aerial pace?

Well, Hamas is still in a really bad position. We'll see. And Hezbollah's fate seems up in the air depending on how strong Lebanon is relative to the weakened Hezbollah. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Operation Cobra from a site that doesn't seem to want to load from the search page.

Sustaining a War

America is finally making progress on improving its defense industrial base (DIB) to sustain a prolonged war. 

Good: 

As recent conflicts consume weapons at a ferocious rate, America’s defense industrial base is becoming more prepared to sustain a major war, according to a new report. 

“The trends are moving in the right direction,” Jerry McGinn, who co-authored the study for the Center for Strategic and International Analysis think tank, told Defense News.

It’s only been four years since Russia alerted us to our DIB shortcomings. Yet our success is just a trend and not a final success.

Also, sustaining "a major war" isn't enough. I want the standard to be supplying three major wars so we can help allies without emptying our magazines.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: AP photo from the article.

Modularized Navy Payloads

As the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) gets smaller in the Navy's rear view mirror, the capability that might have salvaged the class finally arrives--containerized payloads.

I always believed that this concept held promise for the failed LCS:

The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and the Navy are launching a competition to expedite the development of containerized payloads on manned and unmanned surface vessels — for missions as varied as surveillance to electronic attack. ...

“If it fits in a container, I want it and I should be able to fight anywhere in the world with it across many, many platforms. At speed. At scale,” [Chief of Naval Operatoins] Caudle said on April 20 at the Sea Air Space exposition, according to a transcript of his remarks. 

But the containerized systems were not developed in time and under budget. And the LCS ship had too many other problems to be saved by even working containerized systems. 

But now the payloads are coming on line. Too late for LCS, but perhaps in time for small, numerous, networked warships--whether manned or unmanned.

And don't forget modularized auxiliary cruisers.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Great Nicobar Dilemma

If China manages to resolve its Malacca Dilemma for maintaining sea lines of communication through the Indian Ocean, there is another dilemma.

The Malacca Dilemma has a partner: 

India’s Great Nicobar project has been in the news for the last few weeks. The project blends port development, civilian infrastructure, and military strategy. ...

The Strait of Malacca is a lifeline for East Asia’s energy and economic flows. The Chinese strategists have long debated the ‘Malacca Dilemma’. Beijing has made efforts such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) to reduce dependence on the Malacca and access the Indian Ocean via alternative routes. The Great Nicobar project solidifies India’s strategic position near the entrance of the Malacca Strait. 

I’ve noted the importance of this island chain for a long time.

Although China might have a military option that India would be hard pressed to fully cope with. Still, India has a defensive geographic advantage for a full-scale war.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from the article.