Is the War on Islamist Terrorism at the End of the Beginning?

I won't dare say we are at the beginning of the end of the war on Islamic terror. But did we pass peak political Islam?

I said that the Arab Spring gave Moslems a choice other than rule by mullahs or autocrats. Mullahs and not democrats exploited the sudden weakness of autocrats. What happens when mullahs are discredited? Will democrats finally get a chance to plant seeds of change? Or will autocrats storm back into power? Until they lose credibility again. 

Big, if true: 

“The strange death of political Islam” is an idea that’s in the air at the moment. Rule by clerics, and by others who claim to speak in the name of God, is going out of fashion in the Islamic world. The New York Times carried an essay on this in June by its expert Middle East correspondent, Ben Hubbard. After the Arab Spring, he writes, there were many attempts to govern strictly according to Islamic principles. They failed. And so “political Islam in the region has withered.”

I’ve certainly noted the long silence of the once-feared “Arab street” in favor of the Palestinians. Is that part of the trend?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

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NOTE: Image from the article. 

Return of Army Forces to Where?

Congress wants the Army to determine where it should maintain pre-positioned stocks to resist any Russian aggression in the West after the Winter War of 2022 finally ends. An author wants the end-of-war scenario to decide the question. I think Poland is the site regardless of the outcome.

The Army must decide where to put pre-positioned stocks in Europe: 

Army Prepositioned Stocks (APS) serve as a tool for operational reach, reducing the time between strategic decisions and ground combat power in the European theater. Their value depends entirely on what Russia does after Ukraine and what EUCOM needs to answer it. Geography-first framing skips that step. 

I think the Black Sea is a cauldron of death for Russian power projection across the seas that distracts NATO from the main front of the Baltic States and Poland regardless of the scenario. And Russia's Kaliningrad is the obvious first offensive mission for NATO regardless of where Russia strikes.

Therefore, Poland remains the place for Army stocks, as I have argued since Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

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NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Resumes Its Usual Programming

 

Russia weathered the storm of Ukraine’s ground counter-attacks and Russia has picked up its pace of gaining ground. The Russian casualties are still heavy. And Ukraine still counter-attacks. But the break in the pattern in Ukraine’s favor beginning early this year did not expand into something bigger for Ukraine. Will armored vehicles return to close combat as each side adapts to massed drones? Will new North Korean troops provide the punch to set tanks loose past Ukraine’s defensive belts?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: A Super Power's Got to Know its Limitations

In case you missed it on Substack: Rethinking the Defiant-Class Battleship

In case you missed it on Substack: Is America's Ten-Year Rule Ending?

In case you missed it on Substack: Why We Should Care About Iranian Nutballs With Nukes

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section. 

Putin Flings Nuclear Poo and Beats His Chest

Putin has turned the nuclear threat dial to eleven. Which is more than ten, he warns ominously.

Okay, so Russia had another nuclear exercise in May 2026 that complemented other threatening acts to intimidate the West:

In particular, the May 2026 exercise was surrounded by other Russian actions that were intended to intimidate the West. As Russian expatriate Pavel K. Baev wrote, “Moscow’s recent nuclear brinkmanship includes missile tests, military exercises and another Oreshnik strike near Kyiv.” In June 2026, Russia staged a threatening nuclear-capable bomber patrol near NATO territory. Also in June 2026, the U.K. Royal Navy disclosed that “…it maintained a continuous, three-month surveillance operation on Russian warships navigating UK waters, including a frigate that fired a warning shot at a British yacht.”

Is it just me or do Russia's repeated nuclear threats seem extremely hollow and detached from the sad reality of Russian military readiness? 

Seriously, in what strategic world does Poseidon make sense unless Russia's ICBMs are mostly inert stage props for Nuclear Brinksmanship Theater? Heck, is China the intended audience of this Russian resolve to defend its territory with nukes?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Drones Get More Expensive

As drone counter-measures to cheap attack drones enter the battlefield, as I expected drones have to get more complicated to survive rather than rely on mass. The Russians have a jet-powered drone that is expensive enough to be termed a "loitering munition."

Russia is using a more capable suicide drone, as a Bloomberg article described:

Russian forces aim to use the Banderol to fill the gap between their cheap, slow Shahed-type drones and the faster and more accurate Kh-101 cruise missiles. Vlasiuk noted that the cheap Banderol drones contain a 150-kilogram warhead that is bigger than a Shahed warhead and that the Banderol can fly faster than Ukrainian drone interceptors. Bloomberg added that the Banderol has a relatively short range of a few hundred kilometers, so Russian forces have been launching strikes on Odesa City from occupied Crimea. 

Russia decided that simply building more of the lower capability Shahed-type drones wouldn't work as well as supplementing the mass with a higher quality suicide drone in lower numbers. 

Perhaps in response the drone interceptors will have to get better enough to become reusable fighter drones rather than suicide drones, as I speculated about years ago in Army magazine.

As for the Banderol suicide drone being promoted to a loitering munition, continue that line of thought.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Russian Rulers Remain Russia's Worst Enemy

Russia creates enemies where it had none.Yet their mental health issues are our national security problem now.

A Russian strategist’s "central claim is that the war in Ukraine is not primarily a contest over spheres of influence in Eastern Europe. It is a wider struggle over whether the West can impose its will on Russia.”

FFS. The West has no interest in imposing its will in Russia. After the Cold War the West frankly didn’t think that much about Russia before Putin got aggressive in Europe. Now we care. And rearm.

Yet Russian nukes obviously provide Russia with a level of physical security. But Putin has wrecked its conventional military making Russia more vulnerable to Chinese pressure; and risks a time of troubles inside Russia. 

The strategist says Russia must go all-in to win in Ukraine as the first step to not succumbing to the West's desire to impose its will on Russia. Are the Russian people willing to go on that Viking funeral ride to defeat Ukraine's military and then go on to wage a bigger and longer war against the West? And is that course of action really going to deter China? Or will it embolden China? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Buffer Russia Really Needs

Russia is a regional military power with continents-spanning borders. Even before Russia wrecked its military trying and failing to quickly conquer Ukraine, Russia's conventional forces were inadequate for their long borders. Russia needs nukes to deter invasion. Russia's pucker factor is rising in the Arctic.

If the Arctic ice truly is melting, Russia could get economic benefits--but new military vulnerability:

Russia plans to capitalize on the economic benefit of arctic trade, is increasing its military presence in the region, and is leveraging its dominance to conduct disruptive gray zone activity against US allies. But the retreat of arctic ice may not work entirely in Russia’s favor. As the ice melts, Russian nuclear weapons are becoming more vulnerable. Allies must thread the needle between appropriately exploiting this vulnerability, and avoiding Russian overreaction.

I have worried about Russian paranoia over their nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) sea bastions that protect the most survivable element of Russia's nukes that are the ultimate defense of Russia's long borders, their nuclear missiles. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article.