The Winter War of 2022 Gives Its Failure a Wonderful New Set of Clothes

What is the Russian government preparing for during this fifth year of the three-week special military operation? Does the Russian government believe it is safer to turn the disinformation dial to 11 and risk a fight against its own people rather than continue to fight NATO-backed Ukraine?

I almost don't care if this is real:

A top-level Kremlin policy document discussing post-war political planning and how to neutralize potential ultranationalist discontent has been leaked to the Russian investigative site Dossier Center. Entitled “Images of Victory,” the paper gives a rare insight into the inner workings of Russia’s political machine. Crucially, it shows that while the Kremlin remains officially indifferent to peace talks, behind the scenes apparatchiks are working hard on selling an inevitable stalemate to the Russian people by dressing it up as a species of victory. The document was leaked before President Trump’s announcement today of a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

While the source of the leaked document is unknown, its tone and content seem entirely plausible and its authenticity has not been challenged by the Kremlin even though Dossier is funded by exiled London-based oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Significantly, the paper warns that continuing the war carries serious dangers for Russia’s economy and society. But in practical terms the policy paper’s focus is how to construct a post-war narrative of why the war was worth it, as well as how to systematically dismantle all potential areas of dissent, first and foremost from a constituency it describes as “armchair patriots.”

The Sad parade to commemorate the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945 reminds Russians that Russia has been fighting small Ukraine for more time than it took to defeat actual Nazis. And with far less to show for it. 

Indeed, it may tarnish the Great Patriotic War by raising the possibility that the only reason the USSR won in 1945 was the extensive Allied support for Soviet industry and military power. With Western power helping Ukraine instead, Russia has floundered. Perhaps not a coincidence, eh?

Just publicly raising the issue of declaring victory and ending the war bolsters those inside Russia who can plainly see the tsar has no victory. That may cause dissent to rise to opposition. And the document could be real given the apparent shift in fortunes to Ukraine (which even before this shift has blunted and slowed Russia's invasion for over five years). It would explain Putin's possible fear of demobilizing his military after the war--whenever and however that happens. 

At the very least, the signs of Russia wobbling in its determination to win at all costs seem to be rising. But until the signs really accelerate, the war goes on. Ukraine seems to have gained edges in both the strategic air war and the ground war. Will that trend reverse, continue, or accelerate?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I found the picture on the web with no attribution. I carry forth that lack of information. 

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Why Yes, Tanks Are Nice To Have Around

In case you missed it on Substack: The Future is Clear

In case you missed it on Substack: Drone Dive Bombers!

In case you missed it on Substack: Sea Control Goes Berserker

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

The New Army Air Corps

Army companies will get autonomous drones to support them in combat with ISR, targeting, and logistics. Add air defense and we're good to go.

This autonomous drone is good:

The U.S. Army has selected a new small unmanned aircraft system to push aerial capability down to the company level. Army Contracting Command awarded the contract to Mistral Inc. for the THOR Group 2 UAS, a backpack-portable multi-rotor drone designed for frontline units.

This type of drone adds to the company's ability to close with and destroy the enemy rather than distract the company and tempt it to become a mini-air force. 

Add fighter drones that shoot down enemy drones, as I asked for in this Army article, and we're good to go. An autonomous combat air patrol fighter drone over the company would be great.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article. 

More F-15EX to Fly

The F-15EX fleet will expand. Not every mission needs a stealth fighter.

The Air Force is diversifying its fighter fleet. And foreign countries like the F-15EX, too:

The Pentagon’s latest budget request for the air force would more than double the planned procurement of F-15EX strike fighters to 268 examples — moving Boeing to full-rate production of the revamped Cold War jet in the next year. ...

Each F-15EX included in the FY2027 budget request is to include the BAE Systems Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System or EPAWSS — an advanced electronic countermeasures package designed to improve the non-stealth fighter’s defence against modern air defences. 

A 2025 evaluation by the Pentagon found that EPAWSS-equipped Eagle IIs are effective in both offensive and defensive counter-air missions, even against advanced fifth-generation platforms like Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 or China’s Chengdu J-20.

It is easy to forget that even stealth planes benefit from electronic countermeasures.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

The Yin and Yang of China Blockading Taiwan

Is one lesson of the Iran War of 2026 the realization that any Chinese military action in the South China Sea, no matter how successful, would cut China off from world trade?

China is learning from the America-Israeli campaign against Iran. One lesson is the effect on oil traffic in the face of only nominal Iranian military capacity. Fear has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz:

China’s maritime insurance ecosystem does not yet have enough depth or international credibility to underwrite the scale of coverage that a Taiwan-related disruption would demand. A harder problem still is even if China can ensure its own flag vessels, it cannot compel foreign-flagged ships to continue sailing into a warzone.

And if China doesn't in effect inflict a blockade on itself to blockade Taiwan, America could impose it without getting close to China. How much energy can China stockpile to outlast a world cut off from China, too?

China is no longer a mass lump of autarkic proletarian fury that is immune to economic pressure--and which could have swallowed, digested, and expelled an invading army. China is now urbanized, more advanced (on and near the coasts, anyway), and plugged into the global trade system. I don't know if China or the world can last longer without the other. But I bet China doesn't, either.

India could cut off China's Middle East energy imports, too. This Chinese trade vulnerability bolsters my view that India has the edge in a major war with China. Speaking of which:

India is pressing ahead with a $9 billion infrastructure project to bolster its military footprint on the Great Nicobar Island which sits far from the Indian mainland near one of the world’s most critical shipping arteries. 

Unless Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles can pose enough of a threat to India's ports, too. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Not Abandoning NATO Every Day

America is not abandoning Europe. The Army is participating in exercises to test NATO war contingency plans.

This is walking toward the sound of the guns and not running away:

Sword 26 is the U.S. Army Europe and Africa’s premier annual exercise series, taking place from late April through May 2026 across eight countries in the High North and Baltic region. Formerly known as DEFENDER, Sword 26 validates NATO’s regional defense plans and operationalize the Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative (EFDI). 

This exercise series demonstrates the U.S. Army’s commitment to NATO’s collective defense and its ability to deter and decisively defeat adversaries while advancing global stability. Sword 26 highlights the strength of Allied unity, the integration of cutting-edge technologies, and the ability to project decisive power in defense of NATO territory.

Every day with the well-publicized noise of diplomatic wrangling obscuring their work, America's military and civilian officials quietly work with our NATO allies.

America has good reasons to remain active in leading NATO.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Infographic from the initial linked Army document.

Explain To Me Again Why Marines Had To Change So Much?

The Marines are forging ahead on novel means to sink ships instead of destroying enemy ground forces. I'll ask again, why?!

But why is this better than having the Navy or Air Force do the job? 

The Marines demonstrated the ability to launch attack drones from their self-built submerged drones, [which will] significantly increase sensing and firepower in defense of the fleet. 

Seriously, why is killing a Marine ground combat capability to create an entirely new anti-ship capability that the Navy can expand more efficiently a good idea? 

The Marine Corps feared being a second Army to avoid going on the budget chopping block as a redundant formation. It chose to be a second Navy. The Marine haven't even done enough to be a redundant second Navy.

Well, really a third navy. After the Coast Guard. Which actually makes the Marine changes worse. 

NECC could become grunts to make up for that, I suppose.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Fears Peace

Perhaps Putin can survive a peace deal with Ukraine that doesn't represent a diplomatic form of conquest. But he cannot survive demobilization after the war. Then things get interesting in a heavy pucker factor sort of way.

The war goes on. Ukraine continues to counter-attack to claw back land; and Ukraine expands its aerial attack capabilities to match Russia's aerial bombardment scale. Well, hello:

Air traffic at 13 airports in southern Russia has been suspended after drones struck a building at a local air navigation center in Rostov-on-Don, the Russian transport ministry said. 

I can't help but think that America responded to Russian aid to Iran with increased targeting data for Ukraine. I have no proof. Just a suspicion that Trump is a FAFO kind of president, and Putin decided to FA. Russia seemingly ponders mobilization to provide bodies for his war. Perhaps Putin's invasion force isn't the juggernaut Russia portrays.

Putin fears demobilization:

Today, Russia faces what can be called a demobilization dilemma. The war in Ukraine is not about Ukrainian territory. The war is being waged as a response to Russia’s domestic fragility, declining legitimacy and a political system that depends on mobilization, fear and external confrontation to maintain control.

This is plausible. But technically, a ceasefire (I won't be so bold to call it "peace") with Ukraine doesn't have to mean demobilization if demobilization means a new Time of Troubles for Russia. Putin may be preparing to win a civil war, but that doesn't mean he wants a civil war.

And then there is this odd development (tip to Instapundit):

Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested the war in Ukraine was drawing to a close — just hours after he vowed to triumph at Moscow’s puniest Victory Day parade in years.

“I think that the matter is coming to an end,” Putin told reporters inside the Kremlin Saturday about the four-year-long war.

Putin said the United States — which he referred to as a “partner” and “friend” during his remarks, alongside the likes of China and India — was eager to help broker a deal.

Huh.

What happens if Putin agrees to a ceasefire without demobilizing? Maybe he decides that Stalin was a coward for not taking advantage of his massive army in central Europe in 1945 to immediately wage war on his Western allies to win the whole thing. Stalin didn't have nukes, Putin may think. I do. Regardless of the truth.

But the tattered mob Putin commands is not the 1945 victorious Red Army that marched across Europe to raze Berlin in less time than Russia has spent still trying to capture all of Donetsk province. As the initial article notes:

Unlike Western professional militaries, Russia’s forces are disproportionately composed of prisoners, ethnic minorities and contract soldiers recruited through exploitative arrangements. 

Perhaps that go big or go home course of action is still too risky for Putin.

Or maybe Putin ends the war without demobilizing and without deciding to wage another war as Iraq did in 1988 because hostile Iran remained across the border. But by 1990, Saddam decided to use his expensive army to solve his financial problems by taking over Kuwait in a lightning attack. Believing nobody would stop him, he found out that he was very wrong. Desert Shield and Desert Storm followed in 1990 and 1991 (but at least the Coalition reduced Saddam's military to a more affordable level--suicide by cop?). And after a pause, the predictable--but not to Saddam who expected a mere drive-by shooting--2003 war finished Saddam off.

Maybe that's not a good plan for Putin given that Russia is already financially struggling. 

Or perhaps Putin decides that a more muscular subtle attack should be his post-Winter War of 2022 military option while his mobilized army stands guard. Break NATO in the Baltic states, which Putin seems to be threatening (even if he has to AstroTurf supporters), with a Kargil-style invasion of heavily armed "little green men." Then dare NATO to go to war against his bridgehead. Putin could break NATO in several ways with such a strategy if NATO isn't prepared, as I discussed in this Army magazine article.

Sure there is risk. But the West may be unwilling to admit Russia has invaded. And at least it is deniable. If things go really bad, Putin can abandon the irregular troops and deny all responsibility. Will NATO then invade Russia while it has nukes? Not likely. And Putin may think something must be tried if history is to append the honorific "the Great" to his name.

So maybe. Unless a tall open window veto from other Russians is wielded. Or even if Putin just gets too nervous from Western disinformation to walk by windows.

Ukraine faces a similar problem with demobilization. Do it and Russia could pounce. Fail to do it and Ukraine will go broke eventually and not be able to afford a large active army. Will Europe really be as generous with financial support when the war is over? Even if Ukraine gets reparations in one form or another, will Ukraine spend it not on reconstruction but on keeping their army in the field ready for renewed invasion? If so, eventually Ukraine will run out of that source of cash. Going broke follows as does demobilization.

Ukraine and Russia--if Putin or whoever succeeds him does not choose another war as the post-war path--both could use a post-war deal that limits both NATO and Russian forces within striking distance of the ceasefire line.

And if that agreement cements in place a Russian "flip" against China so Russia can focus on holding its Far East from Chinese recapture, so much the better. Is that what Putin expects from the United States, his partner and friend?

But until then, the war goes on. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: Photo from Getty via that "disinformation" link.