The Sun Sets So Bureaucrats Can Feast

Britain cannot defend itself despite a not-insubstantial defense budget.

Why Britain’s military is hollow:

[Britain used to focus] on what really matters: training, munitions and maintenance. … But since the post-Cold War drawdown that was underway by 1991, almost every European defense ministry has wasted increasing proportions of their diminishing defense spending to keep increasingly empty bases open — often just to preserve civilian janitors and ground-keepers in a job[.]

So what they have is a bloated organization and officer corps that maintain the base at the expense of the sharp edge of usable military power.

In a recent Weekend Data Dump I commented on the resignation of the British defense minister:

Protest: “British Defense Secretary John Healey resigned on Thursday, accusing U.K. prime minister Keir Starmer of skimping on defense spending at a time of ‘rising threats.’” Britain’s budget is sizable. Much seemingly supports an administrative base rather than the shrinking fighting force.

Yes, the administrative base thrives. Never mind the purpose of the military is to fight and the administrative base is supposed to sustain the tip of the spear. That priority is inverted in Britain--and in too much of Europe. 

Does anybody really think that the European Union could weld these pieces together into a cohesive force? It won't even be able to weld them into a cohesive bureaucratic entity. Nor does it care if it does.

Also, the initial article has a bonus slam against UNIFAIL UNIFIL.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Europe Needs a Roof

European air defenses are woefully inadequate to protect rear area assets from aerial attack. If Russia is having problems with their strong investment in ground-based air defense, how bad would air attacks be for European states?

Well, yes:

In a serious near-peer conflict, Western countries can't count on their homelands remaining safe while their militaries fight overseas, a top NATO commander told Business Insider. ...

NATO's problem now is that cheap long-range drones, missiles, sabotage, and mass air attacks mean the rear is no longer just theoretically vulnerable. Instead, it could be routinely contested, and the West may not have enough defenses to adequately protect everything, requiring tough choices. 

Europeans especially need to take ground-based air defense seriously again.

Remember the effort in World War II?

Around 3,000 pilots fought in the Battle of Britain, but thousands of other people helped defend Britain in the summer of 1940. They were the Royal Air Force (RAF) ground crews who the pilots depended on in order to get in the air and engage the enemy, the staff in the Sector Station operations rooms who ‘scrambled’ the fighters into action, and the teams operating defences on the ground. 

Thousands of other people? That's off at least an order of magnitude from information on the site that stated that! The Observer Corps alone had 30,000 members at the outbreak of World War II.  

Mind you, America needs to do much better, too. But we have oceans and friendly countries near us (except for more exposed Alaska, Florida, Puerto Rico, and Guam). 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the "Remember" link.

The Winter War of 2022 Followed My Script (Is it Enough?)

 

Twelve years ago my basic advice to the Ukrainians should the Russian full invade was to preserve their army, send body bags back to Russia, and strike Sevastopol, the base Russia started the war in 2014 to secure by taking over Crimea. 

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to put the essay there from now on. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Don't Buy the Middle Power Moment

In case you missed it on Substack: Defending NATO's Baltic States ... From the Sea

In case you missed it on Substack:  "European" Rearmament

In case you missed it on Substack:  Dispersing Assets and Massing Effects

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section. 

Golden Domes and Plastic Threats

Saturation of high-tech defenses is the defensive problem of the day.

This is a problem with the development of our missile defense as cheap precision long-range attack drones enter the battle:

Smarter weapons are shaping today’s world order by passing advanced missile defense systems in utility.

Cheap suicide drones undermined the Iron Dome system's means of defense by coming in low and slow to hit one, paving the way for other weapons to penetrate its weakened shield. This scales up to more sophisticated defenses against ballistic missiles.

What can be done? Let me toss in two angles. A phalanx model of defensive systems. And drone-based ballistic missile defense. Just notions that address two elements of the challenge. But sometimes I get close enough to correct for the engineers to take over!

UPDATE: I forgot this was a round in the scheduled publication magazine, so I didn't think to add this news about a Ukrainian company developing drone-based ballistic missile defense. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article.

No Deal Alone With Iran's Mullahs Protects Us

Don't pretend a deal with Iran--let alone a mere memorandum of understanding that promises a deal--solves the mullah problem. At best it buys time.

Any deal with Iran is a problem:

While a possible agreement is reportedly on the table, negotiations for an extended truce and new nuclear framework continue in fits and starts, but the underlying dynamics that have undermined every previous agreement remain firmly in place.

For years, U.S. policy toward Iran has oscillated between maximum pressure and diplomatic engagement. Each approach has produced temporary effects followed by Iranian adaptation and renewed challenge.

The Iranians see talks and deals as a way to preserve their drive for nukes. Indeed, the awful Iran Deal of 2015 had so many holes you could drive a nuke through it. Remember, the deal actually required us to help Iran develop its "peaceful" nuclear capabilities. Capabilities indistinguishable from a weapons program for much of the development path. So end the talk about how Iran didn't enrich more until we ended the awful deal. The deal helped Iran reach the point of bomb-grade levels of enrichment in a breakout move.

Even if the new terms are good and America can enforce the terms, eventually Americans who bizarrely love the mullah regime and see it as a "friend we haven't made yet" will win an American presidential election. Then they will look the other way as Iran violates the deal--if they don't cancel it--and resume shipping money to Tehran.

But in the short run, if we can get a deal that gives us Iran's highly enriched uranium without financial concessions to Iran, that may be all we can get to buy time. Can we get even that?

Have a super sparkly day. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

China-Russia Relationship Status: It's Complicated

Is it my imagination or does it look like those two soldiers would rather shoot at each other than shake hands? Yeah, that's symbolic.

Russian-Chinese military ties don't mean they have an alliance: 

It’s important to distinguish between a genuine military alliance and the picture-perfect imagery of authoritarian propaganda.

They are frenemies with temporary benefits, with Russia losing status, I say. 

Still, they are aligned so I don’t ignore what exists now. But I do think we can peel Russia away from China based on fear.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Shrine to the Era When CONUS Was a Sanctuary

Say, we sure do have a lot of our military bureaucracy in one place.

Is this disturbing anybody else?

Normal operations have resumed at the Pentagon after the building was earlier placed on lockdown following the detection of an "air quality issue" that sent hazardous material (hazmat) response teams to the scene. 

It was a false alarm, fortunately. But many threats could disrupt operations there. I mean, there was that 9/11 suicide attack. At least that was a one-off and not the first of many strikes.

Maybe that whole "mass effects rather than assets" idea has an application here.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. That I edited, of course.