No Deal Alone With Iran's Mullahs Protects Us

Don't pretend a deal with Iran--let alone a mere memorandum of understanding that promises a deal--solves the mullah problem. At best it buys time.

Any deal with Iran is a problem:

While a possible agreement is reportedly on the table, negotiations for an extended truce and new nuclear framework continue in fits and starts, but the underlying dynamics that have undermined every previous agreement remain firmly in place.

For years, U.S. policy toward Iran has oscillated between maximum pressure and diplomatic engagement. Each approach has produced temporary effects followed by Iranian adaptation and renewed challenge.

The Iranians see talks and deals as a way to preserve their drive for nukes. Indeed, the awful Iran Deal of 2015 had so many holes you could drive a nuke through it. Remember, the deal actually required us to help Iran develop its "peaceful" nuclear capabilities. Capabilities indistinguishable from a weapons program for much of the development path. So end the talk about how Iran didn't enrich more until we ended the awful deal. The deal helped Iran reach the point of bomb-grade levels of enrichment in a breakout move.

Even if the new terms are good and America can enforce the terms, eventually Americans who bizarrely love the mullah regime and see it as a "friend we haven't made yet" will win an American presidential election. Then they will look the other way as Iran violates the deal--if they don't cancel it--and resume shipping money to Tehran.

But in the short run, if we can get a deal that gives us Iran's highly enriched uranium without financial concessions to Iran, that may be all we can get to buy time. Can we get even that?

Have a super sparkly day. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

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China-Russia Relationship Status: It's Complicated

Is it my imagination or does it look like those two soldiers would rather shoot at each other than shake hands? Yeah, that's symbolic.

Russian-Chinese military ties don't mean they have an alliance: 

It’s important to distinguish between a genuine military alliance and the picture-perfect imagery of authoritarian propaganda.

They are frenemies with temporary benefits, with Russia losing status, I say. 

Still, they are aligned so I don’t ignore what exists now. But I do think we can peel Russia away from China based on fear.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

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NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Shrine to the Era When CONUS Was a Sanctuary

Say, we sure do have a lot of our military bureaucracy in one place.

Is this disturbing anybody else?

Normal operations have resumed at the Pentagon after the building was earlier placed on lockdown following the detection of an "air quality issue" that sent hazardous material (hazmat) response teams to the scene. 

It was a false alarm, fortunately. But many threats could disrupt operations there. I mean, there was that 9/11 suicide attack. At least that was a one-off and not the first of many strikes.

Maybe that whole "mass effects rather than assets" idea has an application here.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. That I edited, of course.

Three Lessons From the Iran War

Lessons from the Iran War of 2026 were drawn before the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) shifted the war to negotiating tables for now.

This is an interesting article: 

While the Iran war is currently on hold, the race to study and apply its lessons has only just begun.

Distilled into three main points, the war demonstrated that the U.S. military is a) now proficient, though not exceptional, at drone defense; b) able to conduct prolonged, highly effective air campaigns in challenging environments; and c) more adaptable and lethal when fully leveraging partners.

I quibble at the prologue. The Iran War was not on hold when the article was published before the MOU. The war was waged more quietly but potentially more lethally to the mullah regime. 

But the military lessons are correct. Contrary to the accusations, America did prepare for the Iranian drone threat. We had sent new counter-drone weapons to CENTCOM on land and afloat. We didn't send enough. But we were able to power through that mistake and continue the air assault.

Yes, our air campaign was quite impressive. But air campaigns aren't all powerful. They can kill people and break things in a safer form of a March through Georgia.

And yes, we are more effective with allies. Israel was important and validates our national security strategy of urging allies to be partners and not dependents. And don't forget the allied bases to operate from in the area and to get to the theater of war. 

I drew a few early lessons in this essay, on counter-UAV defenses, ground forces, and sea control.

Fighting wars with allies is frustrating. But ask Iran if fighting almost entirely alone is a freeing experience. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Reaches the Bunker Stage

Has the Winter War of 2022 entered the stage where Putin moves flags on maps in his bunker to maintain the fiction of a might Red Army restoring Soviet-era glory?

 

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to just put the essay there from now on. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Expanding Combined Arms Down the Table of Organization

In case you missed it on Substack: Universal Drone Salvation Hits a Limit

In case you missed it on Substack: The Shiny PLA Navy Object

In case you missed it on Substack: America Won the Iran War of 2026

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section. 

The King of Battle is Not Amused

Artillery is shy for the moment because of the attention it receives. When it gets a little privacy, it will roar back.

Artillery is not dead, it is just hunted more effectively:

Drones currently account for 70 to 80 percent of losses on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, supplanting artillery as the “King of Battle.” At first glance, this shift suggests that both Russia and Ukraine have transitioned away from traditional artillery in favor of cutting-edge drones as a means of delivering fires. The reality is that drones cannot replicate the firepower of artillery, which remains central to Russian and Ukrainian combat operations. This shift has occurred not because drones are superior to artillery, but because drones have made artillery far more difficult to employ. Both sides use drones extensively to locate and target enemy guns, forcing artillery units to adapt their tactics in order to survive and continue delivering limited firepower on an increasingly transparent battlefield.

I will add that the shell shortage pushed Ukraine to use what they could get--FPV suicide drones. The artillery problem of being targeted expanded from armored vehicle vulnerability on the front to the rear where artillery lives when the range and density of the drone recon and strike network expanded to the rear.

Just as tanks and other armored combat vehicles need expanded combined arms operations to fight in this environment, artillery must adapt equipment and tactics, too. 

And anything in the rear that exists within an expanded No-Man's Land now must, too, of course.

Anyway, the King of Battle is pleased at the offering of respect. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

An Armored Brigade in Poland?

Should America station an armored brigade in Poland as a follow-up to our rotational brigades sent in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine? Yes. And I have another suggestion: REFORPOL.

The question is asked:

A decision to base an American armored brigade combat team in Poland permanently would go far to cement the U.S.-Poland military alliance. 

Absolutely do that. Poland is the Army's new center of gravity. Friction with Germany over American troop strength there must consider the simple fact that the Fulda Gap is no longer the front line.

And I'll go back to my suggestion after Russia invaded Georgia in 2008:

American, British, and German equipment depots for additional heavy brigades in southern Poland. If we can fly in troops to man these forces, in a return of forces to Poland (REFORPOL) concept, we'd enhance deterrence without forward deploying powerful NATO offensive units[.]"

Elements of V Corps are already in Poland. Let's end Russia's fantasy of rebuilding the Russian empire in the west so they will focus on holding what they have in the east. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article.