Weekend Data Dump

I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: A Land Mission in the Persian Gulf

In case you missed it on Substack: Europe is a Crucial Staging Area

In case you missed it on Substack: Blood, Mud, and New Technology

In case you missed it on Substack: Strengthening Both Pillars of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance

The shockingly bloody 1859 Battle of Solferino led to the Red Cross and “the Geneva Convention of 1864, the first international treaty to establish legal protections for wounded soldiers and medical personnel.” Sadly, proliferating NGOs have become the logistics arm of war factions.

This last week Team USA defeated the Canadian men’s and women’s hockey teams to win gold medals; and Canada discovered its per capita GDP is less than Alabama’s, our poorest state. I think we can kiss that F-35 sale to Canada goodbye. You’re welcome, Sweden.

Securing the Western Hemisphere: “A major Mexican resort town was under siege on Sunday as drug cartels lashed out after the leader of the brutal Jalisco New Generation Cartel was killed in a military raid, authorities said.” Alert “Blackjack” Pershing.

The Axis of El Vil crumbles: “Cuban security advisers and doctors have been leaving Venezuela as Interim President Delcy Rodriguez's government faces intense pressure from Washington[.]”

Russia provided Venezuela a lot of weapons. It would be hilarious if one form of American aid was sending S-300 SAMs and “dozens of Su-30 jet fighters, hundreds of armored vehicles including T-90 tanks and scores of artillery systems, mainly multiple rocket launchers” to Ukraine.

American relations with African states wouldn’t suffer from “history” so much if we didn’t fixate on our slavery—that we ended at high human cost—to the exclusion of African slaves sent to the Islamic world in larger numbers (with no surviving ancestors) and the Africans who sold the slaves.

This ignores a great difference: “Trump’s performance on the other current challenge by a major U.S. adversary–Russia’s invasion of Ukraine–does not provide comfort to the government and people of Taiwan.” Taiwan is our main defense line. Ukraine is well forward of our main line of resistance.

The Mexican-American War. My view is that is was impressive militarily; in line with contemporary norms that Mexico shared; and that Mexico’s inherited and largely sparsely populated imperial territory inherited from Spanish imperialism denies them sainthood.

An American-Israeli strike on Iran must include targeting defensive and offensive missiles. The other targets will tell us if we are trying to destroy or weaken the mullah-run government. Will we emphasize Iranian internal security assets or hit economic and power projection targets?

Will Trump choose a deal with Xi that sacrifices Taiwan? Trump’s ambivalence about defending Taiwan is part of a long line of ambiguity—America doesn’t want to give Taiwan the power to provoke China and drag America into a war.

More on the cartel-related violence in Mexico.

This is true: “The A-10 Thunderbolt II (‘Warthog’) Isn’t Just an Airplane — It’s a Promise Kept to Ground Troops”. It was always about trust and not the plane, which in fairness is very old. I’d settle for F-35 dedicated close air support squadrons.

Russian aircraft nose around former Russian territory: “Five Russian aircraft were intercepted by the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) while flying near the Alaskan coast Thursday.”

Amidst trans-Atlantic kerfuffles, that’s boring (other than to the sailor): “Denmark’s military said its arctic command forces evacuated a crew member of a U.S. submarine off the coast of Greenland for urgent medical treatment.”

Will Russia pay for North Korean military help by sharing nuclear weapons technology? Maybe. But it is something China should worry about, too.

Let’s end that talk about America siding with Russia, okay? “A new Army National Guard unit took over the training of Ukrainian forces in Bavaria this week[.]”

Drug boat goes boom.

It’s a dangerous region: “A major war is imminent in East Africa.” I’ve been worried.

Sure, side with the communist tyranny: “Canada announced Monday that it is working on an aid package for Cuba as it faces blackouts and severe fuel shortages worsened by a U.S oil embargo.”

American special forces are training for Arctic warfare. Good.

I thought this was old news: “Russia's SVR foreign intelligence agency has taken over mercenary group Wagner's influence operations in Africa[.]”

Coincidence? “Iran was rocked by fresh protests across its universities over the weekend as fears rise of US military intervention against the Tehran regime.”

If the CCP implements policies to encourage it, will the people trust the CCP enough to spend rainy day savings? “As China’s rate of economic growth slows, the country’s leaders have become increasingly concerned that the economy remains overly dependent on investment- and export-driven growth.”

Sh*t got real: “U.S. State Department on Monday ordered all non-emergency personnel and their families to evacuate from the American Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon.” Tip to Instapundit.

Expanding the fleet better not require increasing personnel: “The American navy, like most other navies, is suffering from a shortage of new personnel, causing a problem with providing ships with enough sailors.”

Russia is touchy about their Barents Sea SSBN bastion. Indeed. Tip to OPFOR Journal.

How can the Navy bolster sailor retention by shortening their second cruise when first-cruise sailors are part of the crew?

The Coast Guard is mostly coping with the Homeland Security funding cutoff from the political funding battle.

2027: “The Air Force and Northrop Grumman have struck a $4.5 billion deal to speed up production of B-21 bombers by 25 percent.”

C-130 variant: “The Pentagon has secured $194 million to build the first of a fleet of new ski planes that will support troops flying over the Arctic and Antarctic.”

America and Japan exercised to set up outposts on Japan’s Ryukyu Islands prior to any war. A2/AD isn’t a monopoly of China’s.

South Korea complained to America about the recent U.S.-China aerial standoff over the Yellow Sea?

Delivering blood with drones [video].

Canada and Denmark both use MQ-9B drones, which may provide a basis for cooperation in Arctic ISR.

The Army wants its 600-mile range Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) anti-ship variant faster. Also, moving ground targets.

Designed to thwart submarines, “the ADC MK6 generates acoustic signatures that confuse and divert incoming torpedoes, adding a critical layer of undersea protection.” Is there a weakness to exploit?

Is a Compact of Free Association between America and an independent Greenland really superior to just working with NATO ally Denmark and its Greenland possession to define increased American usage of the island?

As the crisis over Iran’s mullah regime grows, “nobody cares about the EU. Because it has simply become insignificant.” That’s good for America—and for Europeans who value freedom. European countries should want to be significant actors.

Is Peru on track to align with America and reject China?

Is optimism over Lebanon disarming the Hezbollah state-within-a-state justified?

Can Mexico treat the disease rather than the symptoms? “The Mexican state will continue to offer up big-name cartel figures ad infinitum, but their elimination alone changes little. What would be transformative is bringing to account the politicians who enable, protect and promote cartels.”

Congress recommends policies to end the persecution of Christians in Nigeria. The broader problem is—as a kindergarten teacher might say—that Islam doesn’t play well with other children.

Does “Europe” want to be Western? Well, "Western civilization” predates the spread of democracy and freedom. But if you mean a free West, “Europe” as defined as the EU absolutely does not. But many Europeans who the EU fanboys fear and despise do.

Smuggling Starlink terminals into Iran had something to do with this: “Students at Iran's Sharif University of Technology launched a new wave of anti-regime protests over the weekend, calling for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death and clashing with government security forces[.]”

Via Instapundit, some random guy inadvertently took control of 7,000 Chinese-made robot vacuum cleaners. Suddenly my F-35 pucker factor skyrockets. I know ALIS was replaced. But the plane is very networked.

If we don’t deal with Iran now, the next time will be harder: “Iran is close to a deal with China ‌to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles[.]”

The Ukrainians and Russians are exploiting UGVs for logistics and rescue missions. That does seem promising. But I am not impressed with UGVs as a replacement for armored combat vehicles.

Ukraine has become a “steel porcupine.” Sorry, that’s not nearly good enough.

Docking? Why? “The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, is set to dock in Haifa as part of US reinforcements in the Middle East, amid rising tensions with Iran.” I wondered if Ford was bringing something vital. Is it delivering something?

Soviet UFO fans inadvertently alerted America to Soviet attempts to bypass American missile radars by sending nukes over the South Pole.

Sure: “Russia is betting on its submarines and experimental nuclear weapons to make up for the smaller military force that it fields compared to NATO, a top Norwegian military official told Business Insider.” Sea nukes defended by subs. It’s Russia’s only hope.

Survival of the fittest Ukrainian brigades in combat. Help from family and friends is interesting, as I addressed in this post about digital camp followers.

“Battleships” and ship class evolution.

What’s going on in France? Tip to Instapundit.

Fascinating that Russia’s KIA seems to be about four to eight times greater than Ukraine’s. Ukraine eventually explicitly organized its defenses to kill Russian troops as the priority over holding (or liberating) territory.

Also—and you don’t see me slapping my forehead—Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza that sidelines the United Nations has the feature of escaping a Chinese or Russian (of French?) Security Council veto. Well played, sir.

Did the Pentagon warn Trump that military action against Iran will make the U.S. military’s magazines too empty to fight China? If I may be so bold, if that warning was given, it is also true that America doesn’t have enough to fight China even if we don’t attack Iran.

In space, nobody can hear you experiment: “China's reusable space plane is circling Earth once again.”

Simply surviving in the Arctic is a skill to learn even before you test your skills and equipment in EOD in that environment.

A pilot in an experimental aircraft turned over control to an AI to evade a simulated missile attack. And AI for the F-35. Is the future going to be C/Fe rather than C or Fe?

I can see low-threat fronts being held by 12 troops on a 5-10 km. front, but I suspect the infantry shortage is real but exaggerated by the examples given. I’ve also read that on Ukraine’s 1200 km. front they have built 2200 platoon strongpoints to hold the line.

Rising sun: “Japan plans to deploy upgraded air defense missiles on its westernmost island — within sight of Taiwan — by 2031[.]”

Israel decided not to let their officers’ cars spy on them for China.

South Korea’s bunker-busting precision ballistic missile will have to do for coping with North Korea. Until South Korea puts nuclear warheads on them.

The Marines are buying a mobile light mortar system. I had to find an article about the Army looking at it to see it is an 81mm weapon. Before (and after) small drones, mortars allowed infantry to reach out and touch someone.

There’s some validity to this: “From China’s perspective, sustained Iran-U.S. tension – short of full-scale war – can be strategically advantageous.” But don’t let it stray into Looking for Mister Good War paralysis in the face of a massive threat.

The importance of Taiwan’s integrated air defense system.

Excellent overview of trade policy and tariffs for national security purposes since 1945. No less true even if Congress must put that presidential weapon on a broader legislative foundation.

Threat: “Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Ground Forces units held an exercise on February 24 at the Madinah ol Munawarah Operational Base near the Strait of Hormuz[.]” Shield?

Toss in the fact that the mullahs have been waging war on us for nearly fifty years and this sums it up: “In his speech, Trump pointed to Tehran's support for militant groups, its killing of protesters and the country's missile and nuclear programs as threats to the region and the United States.”

The threats of Russia, China, and jihadis couldn’t get Canadians to enlist or spend more on defense. But the threat of Trump did the trick? Whatever. LOL.

Egad. If NASA can’t restore its culture of innovation that works that led to landing on the Moon, perhaps it should just be the minor league team for the private space companies. Tip to Instapundit.

Self-criticism is good. Self-hate is not: “Sracic said that the West has been engaged in years of self-criticism. ‘Instead of focusing on our achievements, we have been obsessed with our sins,’ he noted. ‘This has undermined our confidence and our unity.’” Tip to Instapundit.

Not sure what happened, but if American civilians in a boat decided to shoot it out with a Cuban patrol boat a mile from Cuba’s coast, that was fatally stupid. But we’ll see.

I reject the military punishing Senator Kelly as a retired officer still subject to the UCMJ for his “unlawful orders” video. But the video was hyper-partisan. To avoid conflict of duties, retired officers serving in Congress or other partisan national office should resign their commission and forfeit their pension.

Troops of the Army’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team of the 3rd Infantry Division (armored) practice to integrate small FPV drones into armored combat.

Friends in need recognized our help: “Six pilots and crew from a New York National Guard helicopter unit made a pair of flights into an active firefight in 2023 to rescue a team of French special forces soldiers who had been ambushed by Islamic State fighters.”

The HAVOC conventional hypersonic missile can be launched from ground, air, sea, and space launchers. The story implies the military will get this. Also, thus far China and Russia work on nuclear hypersonics while Congress bars such work here—for now.

A CRS report to Congress on Yemen and Red Sea security.

Sh*t got real: “Several countries have begun withdrawing dependents of diplomatic personnel and non-essential staff from some locations in the Middle East, or advising citizens to avoid travel to Iran[.]”

A reminder that defeating an enemy in the Arctic first requires our troops to defeat the Arctic itself long enough to fight the enemy.

I resent the claim that America redefined its alliances by requiring allies to do enough for their defense to earn our help. One, it is practical. A weak ally may not survive long enough for us to help it. And two, haven’t weak allies already redefined the alliance into one where we fight and they don’t?

The U.S. deployed F-16s and a Burke-class destroyer to Diego Garcia. Just in case the Iranians have long-range suicide drones. I assume the F-16s have counter-drone rocket pods. I think an A-Whacks plane would be better.

Is using a UAV to spoof other aircraft a Chinese test to disguise drones during an attack on Taiwan? Maybe. But if Taiwan sees hundreds (or thousands) of innocent airliners heading to Taiwan, they’ll suspect something is off.

Is war going to return to Ethiopia’s Tigray province?

Is China’s future a nightmare and not a dream? “Behind the Chinese illusion of strength lies a Soviet-style system sustained by subsidy, suppression, and the ongoing exhaustion of its own foundations[.]” The essay says China is following the USSR’s economic development path. Could be right.

We assume Xi’s military purges are about corruption: “In China, corruption in military procurement is an ancient and destructive tradition.” I start from the assumption that the PLA’s primary mission is to preserve CCP control of China.

Keeping the ships moving.

The Pentagon-Anthropic dispute.

The 45th U.S-Thailand Cobra Gold exercise once again kicks off—with 30 countries participating.

Space Force: “Officials insist there are no plans to deploy troops in orbit, but commercial infrastructure and cislunar ambitions are reshaping the debate[.]” I patiently await SMOD.

Star Orbital Wars.

On the bright side, we can shoot down small drones along our border.

The Army ordered a lot of Switchblade suicide anti-tank drones.

Sounds good to me: “The Royal Navy’s First Sea Lord Gen. Sir Gwyn Jenkins plans to hold a Navy summit in April as he calls on his service to take the lead in uniting Northern European navies against Russia’s growing threat in the Arctic and Atlantic.”

Remember when Pakistan backed the Taliban against America in Afghanistan? “Pakistan declared “open war” Friday on Afghanistan, after the two South Asian neighbors traded overnight attacks in a sharp escalation of their long-running dispute.”

AI is not a military planning breakthrough. Maybe stop calling it Artificial Intelligence. Call it Artificial FUBAR.

Is Cuba’s communist government shaky enough to fall?

We’ve had liberty so long that too many have forgotten to value it: “The real problem is the decline of the idea of liberty itself, as a governing principle, and of its advocates and defenders.” This is what Vance was talking about.

Apparently, China’s new carrier cannot launch and recover aircraft at the same time, meaning its sortie generation is just 60% of a Nimitz class.

Sh*t got real as America orders non-emergency staff and families in theIsrael embassy to evacuate.

Will Europeans replace the enablers that America’s military brings to the table to knit European NATO capabilities together?

Suspicious Russian real estate purchases in Finland. I assume this is a problem throughout the West. We really should all closely scrutinize such deals.

Here we go: “The US and Israel have launched an attack on Iran.” It appears one purpose is to give Iranians the chance to overthrow the mullah regime. But without tying our objective to their success. Targets hit may tell us if we think the mullah regime will fall.

Despite Ukraine’s modifications to the Abrams tanks it has received to counter drone attacks, Ukraine has failed to operate them in a combined arms team—the ultimate means of protection and lethality.

Shield: “Israel is to call up around 70,000 reservists, most of them air defence specialists and home guard troops, a military spokesman said on Saturday.”

Exactly! “The development of sophisticated anti-missile and counter-drone platforms could reintroduce maneuver warfare to Ukraine—and modern war planning more generally.”

Kharg Island has been a big target question for me. Destroying the oil export hub would hurt the mullahs. But it would also hurt a new government if the mullahs fall. Apparently we narrowly hit a power plant, meaning the hub is down but more easily restored.

Reading views of people I respect on the Iran strikes (or any other issue) doesn’t offend me. I view their differing views as challenges to my analysis and not a personal attack. Or they’re just wrong, of course—but not evil. I annoy people across the spectrum, so it is really a survival strategy.

I hope the Pentagon is alert to the potential threat worldwide from Iran using missiles or masses of small drones fired from standard shipping containers hidden on civilian ships.

Going to note that hurting Iran will reduce Iran’s ability to supply Russia with weapons and ammunition to hurt Ukraine.

The West’s real rare earths problem is not sources of the plentiful resources—it is processing that China dominates.

A kindergarten teacher would say Islam doesn’t play well with other religions: “Nigerian Christians are being slaughtered. Call it genocide.”

Chinese biolabs in America seem like a big effing deal to me.

The Speed Bump For Victory

The Chinese have two missions if they want to capture Taiwan. Defeat Taiwan and delay America. China worked on the latter mission.

China is using its increased reach at sea to isolate Taiwan from outside support:

[Three] months ago, China conducted its most elaborate live wargames around Taiwan. This included live firing exercises in international waters near Taiwan. This was a Chinese demonstration of its ability to cut Taiwan off from American, South Korean, and Japanese support. China declared that the recent exercises were meant to discourage outside support. 

This has long been part of what I've considered the key factor in a Chinese conquest of Taiwan:

As I've droned on repeatedly here, China does not need to defeat America to conquer Taiwan. China needs to defeat Taiwan to conquer Taiwan. And to defeat Taiwan, China only needs to delay our intervention long enough to defeat and conquer Taiwan. This is a far less difficult mission than deterring America or defeating us. 

And one means to delay the U.S. Navy by sacrificing an old PLA aircraft carrier might be seen as a victory--until we realize too late it wasn't. 

And I don't think we really appreciate a Chinese victory doesn't require conquering all of Taiwan, as I addressed in Military Review.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. I gave up after repeatedly trying to get the video screen to show a sinking Chinese carrier. Refine it too much and Bing won't create your "violent" image.

Strengthening Both Pillars of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction here and see what happens. 

The defense of Europe must reflect a very simple observation that America cannot care more about defending Europe than Europeans care. Defense spending and capability are the relevant measure of caring. Is Europe willing to adjust to an era when threats to Europe are small enough to reduce the need for American military power in Europe in contrast to the need from 1917 to 1991? The threat to Europe is real. But after two world hot wars and a world cold war, the military threat to Europe is small enough that America can watch from afar with only a framework of power in Europe as an insurance policy. This is not abandoning Europe. This is partnering with Europe.

Read the rest here. 

The Charge of the Light Brigades (and Regiments)

The Marines lightened up the entire corps; and the Army followed more narrowly with the new "agile" mobile brigades. Enemies will chew them up in combat.

I wrote about my concerns about the Marine Force Design 2030 changes, including getting rid of its tanks. And I'm sick that the Army has watched that and thought, "Let's do that, too!"

Ukraine slaughters with suicide drones the Russian troops attacking in civilian vehicles little different from the Infantry Squad Vehicle. But if you use enough adjectives, the vehicles will save American infantry from that threat! Face it, the units will be slaughtered in heavy combat. It’s like the Army adopted Force Design delusions. 

Although to be fair, the Army has not abandoned armored brigades.

Still, let's review my thoughts the last time the Army thought its number one mission was getting overseas rather than winning once on the ground there. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Blood, Mud, and New Technology

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction here and see what happens. 

A British Army battalion is going all-in on using drones. Listen to the commander. You won’t hear panty-flinging enthusiasm for making the job of infantry obsolete.

Read the rest here. 

America Needs to Remain in Europe

America is not planning on walking away from Europe and NATO despite the cacophony of voices claiming NATO is--or should be--dead. 

It is in America's national security interest to remain in NATO. But that’s not what the Best and Brightest are telling me: 

American policymakers are telling European leaders not to expect major U.S. troop drawdowns anytime soon, according to seven U.S. and NATO officials, calming widespread fears across the continent’s capitals.

European officials have worried President Donald Trump would call home tens of thousands of American soldiers to encourage countries to spend more on their own defense as the Pentagon focuses on the Western Hemisphere.

Any near-term reductions would likely be from the rotational reinforcements that were sent in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Since then, Russia has done far more harm to the Russian ground forces than one or two American combat brigades could inflict.

I think a number of European officials stoke worries to sabotage the trans-Atlantic relationship for their own purposes. And there are Americans who would do the same while pretending not to. 

I've long supported a robust if limited American presence in Europe for a couple main reasons (starting on p. 15). Face it, America still needs NATO to defend the Atlantic. And to project power into and through Europe, as America has been doing to cope with Iran.

America's continuing European role fits in with the modern three reasons for NATO, in general.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

NOTE: My Redundancy Editor of Redundancies edited a sentence from the original post.

Europe is a Crucial Staging Area

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction here and see what happens. 

American power abroad is a multiple of American power in the United States and the ability to project it great distance. If either part of that equation is weak, America does not have effective power abroad to support friends and defeat enemies. Europe is an under-appreciated power projection platform for getting relevant power closer to enemies. Presidents in a crisis may very well ask “Where are the carriers?” But what they really need to know is where are the land airbases?

Read the rest here. 

The Air Force Joins the Ship-Killing Club

Billy Mitchell claimed land-based air power made ships obsolete. Perhaps the Air Force can at least thin the PLA Navy herd once it leaves port.

This is a good addition to Air Force long-range bomber payloads:

Derived from the company’s widespread guided-bomb kit, the JDAM LR will be able to strike targets or deliver minefields out to 300 nautical miles, effectively converting the Mark 82 warhead into a long-range cruise missile. The variant was previously known as the Powered JDAM in 2023, with Boeing updating its information pamphlet to the new designation this year and at WEST 2026.

Maritime strike, Quickstrike aerial-launched mines and baseline strike variants are planned. A decoy variant without the warhead extends the range to 700 nautical miles. The inclusion of the fuel tank, engine and spaces for optional attachments has greatly increased the length of JDAM LR.

Having Air Force assets outside of bases easily attacked by China's aircraft and missiles on the mainland is a potent addition to America's arsenal. This Thin Blue Line is crucial.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article.

A Land Mission in the Persian Gulf

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction here and see what happens. 

The focus in the United States over the Iran crisis has been on air attacks on Iran. A ground invasion against such a large and populous country is not an option. But could ground forces be decisive in the Strait of Hormuz to hold open oil export routes? 

Read the rest here. 

The Million-Man Swim Takes Shape

Will China invade Taiwan without relying on heavy tanks? That fits with my view on how China will throw an invasion force across the Taiwan Strait.

This is interesting:

Chinese strategists believe infantry is better suited for fighting in Taiwan’s mountainous and urban terrain, according to an analysis by Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Program at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington, D.C. Perhaps more important, infantry and light vehicles could be transported by China’s vast fleet of civilian ships, rather than needing special landing craft to carry armored vehicles.

One aspect I have doubts about is using China's fishing boat militia to move light infantry to Taiwan. How would the congestion off the beaches and chaos on the beaches for the numbers he is talking about be avoided? Invading is way different than evacuating like at Dunkirk in 1940. 

Although his airborne spearhead of air drops and helicopters makes sense to me in an invasion that  lands troops by many means. Offensive and defensive fires for the bridgeheads could be provided from offshore.

And yes, I too worry about the quality of Taiwan's ground forces. Just seeing a major PLA force ashore could demoralize the defenders. 

Even if Taiwansese troop moral holds, if the PLA gets ashore and digs in, that might be victory enough even without the heavy armor to drive on Taipei, as I wrote in Military Review.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Photo of Dunkirk from Rare Historical Photos.

The Winter War of 2022 Leans Into Russian Delusions

Russia has pounded Ukraine for four years now, killing and wounding hundreds of thousands of troops and civilians, tries to freeze Ukrainians each winter, and drove millions abroad as refugees. But the Russians still think that Ukrainian attitudes about Russia will improve by continuing the beatings.

The war goes on. The major change is a series of successful Ukrainian counter-attacks that have liberated a relatively small amount of territory in one important sector southeast of Pokrovske, taking advantage of Russian communications difficulties due to losing its unauthorized Starlink capabilities. If only Ukraine has a strategic reserve. Sadly, aucune. Still, the Ukrainians are continuing to take ground and inflict casualties ...

Chimps with nukes, they are:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently claimed that any postwar Ukraine must be ”friendly“ and ”benevolent” to Russia, explicitly rejecting any future Ukrainian government that is not pro-Kremlin.

Ease off on the vodka-and-kasha breakfasts, Lavrov, eh? 

It is in moments like this that I think our best option is to give Ukraine nuclear-tipped Tomahawk cruise missiles with no limits on their use. <sigh> But in the end, I will put business before pleasure. 

And the war goes on. Four years ago tonight (in my time zone) Russia invaded Ukraine expecting Ukrainians to welcome their benevolent Russian brothers. Hundreds of thousands of dead, wounded, missing, and captured Russian soldiers later, the Russians still think the Ukrainians must secretly pine for the embrace of a loving--if strict--brotherly bear from Moscow. 

In reality, Ukrainians are still willing to fight:

Ukraine recaptured 201 square kilometres (78 square miles) from Russia between Wednesday and Sunday last week, taking advantage of a Starlink shutdown for Russian forces, according to an AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

This isn't much. And doesn't mean Ukraine can eject Russia from significant amounts of Ukrainian territory absent a collapse of a good chunk of Russia's frontline ground forces. But it does show Ukrainians are not learning to love the Russians. Yet Putin finds he must turn to some involuntary reservist mobilization to maintain the rate of dying Russian troops to pound the love into the Ukrainians.

Or perhaps "friendly" and "benevolent" translate into something way different in Russian that is well beyond what remains of my college Russian language classes to catch.

Yet Putin persists and Russians follow him into the darkness where they die and suffer, oblivious to the anti-greatness Putin is inflicting on Russia:

As the war enters its fifth year, Russia’s control of eastern Ukraine increasingly resembles a Pyrrhic victory.

And it could get so much worse. 

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings 

UPDATE (Monday): Ukraine's ability to liberate land on a wholesale scale may be limited, but if Putin persists in this strategy, that could change:

In Ukraine, the war has evolved into a series of Russian infantry attacks that fail, at heavy cost to Russia with the Ukrainians losing one soldier for every ten Russians.

It is hard on Ukraine to just absorb blows. But good grief, Russian forces are are getting hammered. 

UPDATE (Monday): Are Ukraine's counter-attacks more than they seemed? I did not call the August 2024 offensive into Kursk province more than a raid initially because the identified assault units weren't enough to be more than a raid. But that was just an incomplete roster of the attack force. Hmmm.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Are Drones the Silver Bullet From the Winter War of 2022?

In case you missed it on Substack: A Mongol Lesson in ISR and Command and Control

In case you missed it on Substack: A War By Any Other Name

In case you missed it on Substack: I'm Having Second Thoughts About Ground Drones

Ukraine’s suicide UUV forces Russia to expend more resources to defend their Black Sea warships.

Sure, small nations may be able to out-innovate large enemies. But God is still on the side of the big battalion. And Ukraine has received a lot of military and financial aid plus ISR and training help from the West.

But it’s okay because the Bad Orange Man said some mean things about Canada. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine hopes to kill Russia’s soldiers and economy to win. I doubt the killing path can work—if Putin loosens the escape valve. And China may increase help so Russia can better cope with increased production problems. But fingers crossed.

Yeah, I don’t assume the mullah regime in Iran is fragile. If the regime’s bully boys are willing and able to kill as many as it takes to win, the mullahs won’t fall this year.

China can no longer count on making money by selling green energy technology to the West that only harms Western economic resiliency.

Millions face starvation in Congo because those vying for power find that useful. Sadly those people don’t get 1% of the misplaced attention the Sainted International Community® bestows upon Gazans for pretending to starve.

The Baloch Liberation Army’s evolution from separatists to terrorists in Pakistan. Not generally on my radar.

Testing new XM1225 30mm ammunition to improve Apache helicopter anti-drone capabilities.

Testing Army’s 155mm Next-Generation Rocket Assisted Projectile (NGRAP) design for extended range.

Every Marine a rifleman drone operator? I have concerns about that path.

The Ford carrier strike group moved to the Caribbean to support operations; and is returning to the Middle East. I wonder what it quietly picked up while over here for use in the Middle East? A carrier quietly picked up helicopters for the failed Operation Eagle Claw back in 1980.

We seriously need to rethink the Marine role in national defense. I had thoughts about that in Joint Force Quarterly (how I got in that PhD magnet is beyond me) a quarter century ago that remain relevant.

Rejecting analysis paralysis for some new trendy defense jargon.

Canada may choose a non-U.S. fighter plane. The plane will be basically for continental air defense within NORAD. If Gripen makes sense for Canada and complements American aircraft, great! But if this is spite, that’s pathetic.

Has Xi made the PLA his personal military rather than the CCP’s military?

Thank you, India! “India has seized three U.S.-sanctioned oil tankers linked to Iran this month and stepped up surveillance in its maritime zone to curb ‌illicit trade[.]”

Sparks of resistance endure: “Some residents of Tehran on Sunday chanted slogans against the clerical leadership from balconies and windows, reports said, a day after Iranians abroad staged giant opposition rallies in Europe and North America.”

Eventually Russia will adapt: “A move by Elon Musk’s SpaceX to shut down Russia’s illegal use of Starlink satellite internet has dealt Moscow a fresh battlefield setback as its casualty rates soar.” Tip to Instapundit.

Cuba’s allies seem to have written off Cuba in the face of America’s squeeze on Cuba’s energy imports.

Sh*t got real: “Poland should look at developing its own nuclear weapons in light of the growing threat from Russia, President Karol Nawrocki said in an interview with Polsat News television.”

Huh: “The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Saturday that it conducted 10 strikes against more than 30 Islamic State targets in Syria between February 3 and February 12.” Maybe Iraq’s shield will hold.

The squeeze on Venezuela continues: “US forces boarded an oil tanker in the Indian Ocean that violated US President Donald Trump's blockade of sanctioned vessels in the Caribbean and fled the region[.]”

Change: “Some Army officers will be shuttled into new job specialties or even transferred to a different service as certain jobs are eliminated, Military Times has learned.”

The Pentagon is in a hurry to counter drone threats to U.S. infrastructure.

The U.S. is fine with Europeans spending weapons procurement money at home. This is an interesting change given our 80-year record of being concerned allies will drag us into a war that might go nuclear.

A machine gun on a drone [VIDEO]. Let me know when we have a fighter drone to take on drone swarms as I asked for in Army magazine in 2018.

Hmmm: “As if morale in the Russian military was not bad enough because of the Ukraine war, members of the Russian Northern Fleet and their families suffered from a breakdown of heating systems.” Putin had best be careful.

I’d think that is a military issue in general: “Navies are still trying to find the optimum combination of technical and command skills needed to effectively run a warship.”

CENTCOM wants infrared-guided APKWS for its Air Force F-16s and Navy MH-60s to counter drone threats. I suggest putting them on A-Whacks aircraft, too.

Report to Congress on Iran’s nuclear programs.

Taiwan needs to arm up and train like its life depends on it if it wants to encourage American-led intervention—and buy America time to effectively intervene—if China attacks. My recent thoughts on Taiwan’s defense plans.

Lately I’m getting lots of random older post likes from people with no posts in their profile. I assume this is marketing. I don’t do that. I also assume this may mean my posts are getting some exposure to attract that attention. Maybe?

Well sure, plenty of people have reasons to stage a coup against Putin. I just don’t know how realistic it is to hope that will make things better.

The Army looks at aerial drone logistics. This improves on the GPS-guided parachutes.

The Japanese aren’t panicking over changing American national security policies. Japan is calmly and productively working with America to face China.

Chevron is betting big on refining Venezuelan heavy crude oil. Maybe soft regime change and reconstruction will work.

Somehow people see frenemies China and Russia as close allies; but see America and Europe as divorcing when that is not at all America’s intent.

The U.S. will deploy more weapons to the Philippines.

Saudi Arabia signed a military cooperation agreement with Somalia. The Saudis need to protect the oil routes through the Red Sea. Did I call it back then, or what?

Russians who formerly recruited for the Wagner Group are recruiting for “Kremlin-sponsored sabotage attacks in Europe.”

Yikes, now that I think about the revolving door in London, British governments are lasting about as long as Cold War-era Italian governments.

Panama is more than a canal for American security. Interesting discussion of Tocumen International Airport. Is China too deeply dug in digitally to be ejected?

The Air Force says the “LGM-35A Sentinel nuclear missile to reach initial capability in the early 2030s[.]”

Due to a strike at the factory: “The Air Force has delayed delivery of the 18th Wing’s first F-15EX Eagle II fighters to Kadena Air Base on Okinawa[.]”

The Coast Guard steps up to defend lines of supply to the Western Pacific.

Welp, given the mutual reliance of America and Canada for the defense of North America, this sounds like a tantrum: “Prime Minister Mark Carney says Ottawa’s new “Buy Canadian” defense strategy is aimed at reducing Canada’s reliance on the United States[.]”

Apparently, 65% of Germans are morons.

In response to seizures of Russian “shadow tankers”, “Russia threatens to deploy navy to protect vessels from ‘western piracy’[.]” Good luck with that.

Russia’s subliminal war: “Baltic Sea nations are alarmed after several power cable, telecom link and gas pipeline outages occurred since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.”

Putin’s glorification of casualties in the abstract sense appeals to those with no direct consequences: “Families of Russian soldiers have been complaining about the harsh treatment their sons, fathers, husbands and brothers have received while fighting in Ukraine.”

Is America right to mistrust the British government to protect the Diego Garcia military base? Given its importance, I say it is “trust but verify” time.

Penetrating China’s undersea shield in the Paracel Islands.

The cost of military action against an enemy is easy to calculate after the fact while the cost of inaction is theoretical. For Iran, we actually can see the non-nuclear cost of decades of inaction—or at least non-decisive action.

I do not know what Iran mission justifies extending Ford’s deployment. Unless, as I mentioned, it picked up a very special asset of some sort.

Romania wants NATO counter-drone assets given Russia’s actions over and near Romanian territory. To be fair, perhaps Romania should create such capabilities.

France shamelessly collaborates with oppression. Vance warned Europe to be worthy of America sacrificing for Europeans. But our influence—or lack thereof—affects that.

Ukraine adds UGVs to its drone forces. Perhaps these get better over time. But I’m just not impressed with direct combat UGVs so far.

War production: “Ukraine currently produces about 70 percent of the weapons it uses in its war with Russia.” Good. But these are the weapons geared to waging the war of attrition.

The U.S. may strike Iran as soon as Saturday (yesterday). America needed time to deploy forces to CENTCOM. And I assume Israel needed time to bolster the ability of Iranians to resist the mullahs. We may strike a king. Let’s see if we kill him.

Germany is willing to launch British or French nuclear warheads with its assets, much as it did with American warheads during the Cold War.

Well: “The U.S. is in the process of withdrawing all of its roughly 1,000 troops from Syria[.]” I am worried about Iraq without our ground shield and lots of jihadis in Syria. But I did worry about a Beirut bombing catastrophe with just a passive mission.

Huh: “The top commander overseeing US forces in Latin America, General Francis Donovan, and senior Pentagon official Joseph Humire made a surprise visit to Venezuela on Wednesday for security talks[.]”

Russia and China took part in Iranian exercises in the Hormuz Strait. Will they get out of the way?

America and Australia joined the Philippines to draw a line in the South China Sea in defense of freedom of navigation.

Considering Russian tests of NATO resolve in the Nordic-Baltic front. I call your test and raise a Kargil scenario at Narva (in Army magazine).

Easing Iraq’s internal problems due to mullah influence in Iraq would be a major positive effect of the fall of the mullah regime. I’ve long wanted those militias disbanded.

I deny that NATO’s deterrence against Russian attack is under pressure. Russia screwed the pooch in its two-week invasion and has decimated its military; while European NATO states are rearming. Get a grip.

About that special relationship: “The U.K. is reportedly preventing the U.S. from using Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford to attack Iran.” This protects brutal, nuclear-seeking Iran. Unless this dispute is to deceive Iran …

The U.S. helped move 6,000 ISIL fighters from a Syria prison to an Iraq prison.

Ukraine’s deep reach inside Russia.

Do cheap drones make attacking too difficult and expensive? Well, that’s what was once thought about the machine gun. Perhaps the same was said of crossbows?

Turkey’s drone carrier is operating with NATO forces in the Baltic Sea. Apparently, Russia’s threat in the Black Sea is recognized as minor.

Take care to have backups: “the Marine Corps is working with the joint force to craft a single network to prepare the service for a digitized battlefield.” Russia discovered the problem of relying on Starlink when they lost it.

More on NATO massing and coordinating artillery fires and drone defenses.

The Army seeks to expand drone skills with the “first annual Best Drone Warfighter Competition[.]”

China put a new 155mm naval gun on a test ship. The article notes its ability to support ground forces.

Has Xi Jinping crippled the PLA and destabilized the Indo-Pacific with his purges?

The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency basis for broad tariff powers. I suspected this would happen. And in the long run it is best for small government philosophy. I hoped the power would last long enough to do some good in balancing trade terms. We’ll see what happens.

Strategy: “The 2026 National Defense Strategy reestablishes homeland defense as a primary and contested mission, reflecting historical lessons that a secure interior is the foundation of American power projection.” Yes! America isn't retreating—it's reloading.

Can Gaza be de-radicalized? If not, “peace” is just reloading. We may have to quarantine Gazans who can’t let go of hate and let time work for us.

The Canadian military’s death spiral. I just want Canada to stop living in a fantasy defense world that prioritizes annoying Trump; and focus on not stinking on ice. Sigh. Canada fielded an entire army-level formation in Europe in World War II. Tip to Instapundit.

China doesn’t like what it regularly does to Japan and Taiwan: “US and Chinese fighter jets briefly faced off above waters near the Korean Peninsula this week[.]”

I always thought the mine ban was stupid: “Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk says Warsaw will soon be able to mine its eastern borders with Russia as his country officially exited the Ottawa Convention banning the use of land mines on Friday.”

The United States gave Iran a deadline for a deal, with implied American military action the alternative.

Is the FAA an obstacle to counter-drone efforts?

I sometimes say America is an empire if you squint and dim the lights. It may be convenient to assume that for purposes of limited comparisons. But America is not an empire that rules a world of colonies. We are very large and powerful, with global economic and security interests.

I worry that Chinese and Russian covert nuclear tests will lead to a situation where they have confidence their nukes will detonate and we just pray computer simulations are good enough.

Syria’s Christians sided with Alawites to survive surrounded by hostile Sunni Moslems. Now that Sunni Islamists overthrew Assad’s Alawite regime and run Syria, we will find we can’t “tame” these jihadis—and Syria’s Christians will die if they can’t get out.

Somebody is getting a bit defensive: “The Kremlin continues to crack down on former pro-Russian proxy forces and separatist leaders who criticized the Kremlin to consolidate control over the Russian information space.”

Russia really embraces disinformation—as did the Soviets.

Some details on the Caracas raid. 200 American special operations troops were involved. Would I be out of line to assume half were Rangers securing a perimeter?

How the 1257 Samalas volcano eruption changed history. Recall the 2010 Iceland eruption. Ash in the air closed airspaces in Europe. Imagine this in the Cold War. Could the Soviets have exploited a hiccup in the Atlantic air bridge? Or would the wartime military just fly through it as a relatively minor problem?

I keep wondering if the mullahs face revolution or fragmentation: “Five Kurdish Iranian opposition groups unite to form a powerful new coalition against Tehran’s regime, focusing on self-determination and democracy.”