The Winter War of 2022 Sends Mixed Signals About Power

 

Ukraine continues to demonstrate an ability to advance despite the drone-saturated front line. Russia seemingly prepares for renewed offensives after mobilization of reservists and committing accumulated armored combat vehicles that Russia has largely withdrawn from battle. The air campaigns loom larger in theories of victory. Russia tries to intimidate NATO by figuratively waving nukes around.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Siege of Iran

In case you missed it on Substack: My Glimpses of Military Service

In case you missed it on Substack: Reviewing the Russian Decline Era

In case you missed it on Substack: Ukraine's Combined Arms Warfare

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Ukraine Adapts to Fight the War It is Compelled to Fight

Ukraine has built an outstanding battle management system to cope with the war they are in that features a sustained Russian offensive relying on overwhelming Ukrainian defenders with numbers. Avoid the temptation to blindly adopt a system designed for Ukraine's war against Russia. 

The Ukrainian Delta system has been outstanding in creating a lightning fast integrated reconnaissance strike complex:

Delta is a digital battle management system that gives Ukrainian soldiers, battalions, and brigades a major advantage, as it enables them to observe the combat zone live and quickly know what has to be done next while automatically sharing information within a unit or, if necessary, with NATO allies. This produced dramatic results on the battlefield. Before Delta, once you identified a Russian target, it took about three days to launch an attack. With Delta, it takes seconds, or up to a minute in difficult circumstances.

But it would make total sense if the system is optimized for a static front (yes, it is static—not inert—so don’t be picky on word choice). That's the war Ukraine is waging and they have to win that war.

To me, this system copes with the static war rather than seeking to integrate many new weapons and systems into expanded combined arms operations to break the static war. Which I discussed in Army magazine. 

Can Delta be adapted for a war of movement? Just saying don't cut and paste lessons from how Ukraine must fight to how we want to fight. Otherwise we will get the war we build our military to fight.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Oh ... Canada--Wait. What?

I think Canada needs an intervention. Not a military intervention. But an intervention of friends--perhaps the governors of American states that trade heavily with Canada--concerned about Canada's recent self-destructive behavior.

Canada's prime minister has stoked anti-Americanism for domestic political objectives. And now Carney wants to “own the MAGA” via the EU: 

International opportunism retains its attractions even among the polite and inoffensive. Mark Carney won election by distracting Canadians from the serial failures of his Liberal predecessor with his “elbows up” campaign against Donald Trump. ... Carney preferred to take his place on the international stage as an icon of liberal internationalism. Clearly his term as governor of the Bank of England only whetted his appetite for even greater standing in world affairs. Why waste one’s time repairing national health care, facing down Albertan separatists or (God help you) appeasing the Québécois, when you could bask in the acclaim of your Davos compadres?

Putin tried that strategy by elevating the post-Cold War neutered NATO into a looming enemy to hide Russia's appeasement of China in order to save Russia's Far East. Putin and Russians eventually believed that ridiculous claim and created rearming enemies in Europe.

I like Canada. I have Canadian relatives. I've been there a lot. But I think Canadians are off their government-subsidized meds. 

At least Canada won't face American invasion--oh, FFS, seriously, Carney?--as a consequence of their ridiculous claim. But Canada will not prosper on this path even if Carney faces no repercussions.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Accept No Substitute For POLARCOM?

America is stitching together a pseudo Polar Command from three combatant commands. Is this a case of when you start to establish POLARCOM, establish POLARCOM?

Is this good enough? 

U.S. Northern Command plans to sign an agreement with its European and Pacific counterparts to enhance coordination and close security seams in the Arctic, a strategically vital region where all three commands converge, U.S. officials told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

NORTHCOM’s Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, U.S. European Command’s Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, and U.S. Pacific Command’s Adm. Samuel Paparo will finalize the agreement, which aims to strengthen information sharing and ensure that adversaries cannot exploit the geographic boundaries among the commands.

Or do we need an actual POLARCOM instead of messing around with substitutes?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article.

A Real Lesson in Getting Distracted

Much is being made about Iran soaking up too much of our resources. This has long been an issue. And we have coped in the past. It is obviously not ideal. But that's reality. Russia really provides a lesson in focusing on one threat while other objectives deteriorate.

A global power must balance its military power globally to deal with many active and potential threats. Even a regional power has that problem: 

This happens fairly regularly. Washington dealt with it in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, but perhaps a more instructive example of the dangers of sustained high-intensity warfare is Russia. The expectation of a short campaign in Ukraine became a prolonged drain on troops, munitions, industry and political attention. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh [from Armenia], fundamentally altering the balance of power in its near-abroad, while the fall of the Assad regime in Syria weakened Russia’s position in the Middle East. The war in Ukraine did not cause either setback, but Russia’s prolonged concentration there appears to have reduced Moscow’s ability to prevent them. 

Russia has not coped despite a much more massive ammunition supply and weapons reserves. And Russia's Far East remains at risk. But hey, it will all be worth it once Putin defeats Nazis, NATO, and the Devil himself in Ukraine. 

America has coped in the past and is coping now. Again, not ideal. But we are hardly helpless. And we will always have to make tradeoffs. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Surely Russia Isn't Stupid Enough To Draw NATO Closer to Its Nuclear Bastion

I'll stop calling you Shirley, but I can't believe even Russia would be so epically stupid by stoking a crisis at Norway's Svalbard Islands, thinking Russia can exploit the complicated legal status that includes a large Russian settlement there. 

It seems unlikely that Russia would attempt to test NATO’s Article V "all-for-one" provision at Norway’s Svalbard Islands:

For the best part of a century, the biggest threat to the residents of Svalbard was polar bears. Increasingly, it now comes from Russia. 

Fears are growing that Moscow could use the sprawling Arctic archipelago — a part of Norway with an unusual legal status — to test NATO militarily amid growing uncertainty over the U.S. commitment to European defense. 

NATO absolutely should and would respond. And drawing NATO forces close to Russia’s SSBN bastion seems like an epic level of stupid even for Moscow when prudence right now argues for NATO avoiding a test of Russia's paranoia line there.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Seeks Victory Through Air Power

 

Each side has hopes that it can yet win on the ground. Russia with masses of new men from a reservist mobilization; and Ukraine with improved offensive tactics exploiting ground drones being tested on the battlefield. Yet each side seemingly puts greater hope on Victory Through Air Power as each wages strategic bombing campaigns with long-range drones and missiles. This winter we will see if the latter route to victory can work for either side. And in the spring and summer of 2027, we may see the ground efforts should the air campaigns fail to produce decisive results.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.