Accept No Substitute For POLARCOM?

America is stitching together a pseudo Polar Command from three combatant commands. Is this a case of when you start to establish POLARCOM, establish POLARCOM?

Is this good enough? 

U.S. Northern Command plans to sign an agreement with its European and Pacific counterparts to enhance coordination and close security seams in the Arctic, a strategically vital region where all three commands converge, U.S. officials told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

NORTHCOM’s Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, U.S. European Command’s Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, and U.S. Pacific Command’s Adm. Samuel Paparo will finalize the agreement, which aims to strengthen information sharing and ensure that adversaries cannot exploit the geographic boundaries among the commands.

Or do we need an actual POLARCOM instead of messing around with substitutes?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article.

A Real Lesson in Getting Distracted

Much is being made about Iran soaking up too much of our resources. This has long been an issue. And we have coped in the past. It is obviously not ideal. But that's reality. Russia really provides a lesson in focusing on one threat while other objectives deteriorate.

A global power must balance its military power globally to deal with many active and potential threats. Even a regional power has that problem: 

This happens fairly regularly. Washington dealt with it in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, but perhaps a more instructive example of the dangers of sustained high-intensity warfare is Russia. The expectation of a short campaign in Ukraine became a prolonged drain on troops, munitions, industry and political attention. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh [from Armenia], fundamentally altering the balance of power in its near-abroad, while the fall of the Assad regime in Syria weakened Russia’s position in the Middle East. The war in Ukraine did not cause either setback, but Russia’s prolonged concentration there appears to have reduced Moscow’s ability to prevent them. 

Russia has not coped despite a much more massive ammunition supply and weapons reserves. And Russia's Far East remains at risk. But hey, it will all be worth it once Putin defeats Nazis, NATO, and the Devil himself in Ukraine. 

America has coped in the past and is coping now. Again, not ideal. But we are hardly helpless. And we will always have to make tradeoffs. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Surely Russia Isn't Stupid Enough To Draw NATO Closer to Its Nuclear Bastion

I'll stop calling you Shirley, but I can't believe even Russia would be so epically stupid by stoking a crisis at Norway's Svalbard Islands, thinking Russia can exploit the complicated legal status that includes a large Russian settlement there. 

It seems unlikely that Russia would attempt to test NATO’s Article V "all-for-one" provision at Norway’s Svalbard Islands:

For the best part of a century, the biggest threat to the residents of Svalbard was polar bears. Increasingly, it now comes from Russia. 

Fears are growing that Moscow could use the sprawling Arctic archipelago — a part of Norway with an unusual legal status — to test NATO militarily amid growing uncertainty over the U.S. commitment to European defense. 

NATO absolutely should and would respond. And drawing NATO forces close to Russia’s SSBN bastion seems like an epic level of stupid even for Moscow when prudence right now argues for NATO avoiding a test of Russia's paranoia line there.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Seeks Victory Through Air Power

 

Each side has hopes that it can yet win on the ground. Russia with masses of new men from a reservist mobilization; and Ukraine with improved offensive tactics exploiting ground drones being tested on the battlefield. Yet each side seemingly puts greater hope on Victory Through Air Power as each wages strategic bombing campaigns with long-range drones and missiles. This winter we will see if the latter route to victory can work for either side. And in the spring and summer of 2027, we may see the ground efforts should the air campaigns fail to produce decisive results.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Standing On the Edge of Freedom

In case you missed it on Substack: Honey! I Shrunk the Air Force!

In case you missed it on Substack: Achieving Surprise on a "Transparent" Battlefield

In case you missed it on Substack: Reviewing a Minimally Manned Infantry Fighting Vehicle

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Decimate the UN Bureaucracy (Ten Times)

The United Nations isn't useless. But it should be cut down to a third of its budgetary size to prevent the body from being used to wage war against the West by other means--while the West pays for it.

This is about right:

[T]he United Nations has long ceased to be a forum for international peace – if it ever was – and is today governed by brutal realpolitik. ... When [Poland's foreign minister] speaks of punishing Russia for its aggression, he is channelling the word and spirit of the UN charter, which promises ‘to uphold justice and respect for treaties and international law’ and ‘reaffirm faith in … the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small’. But the United Nations is, today, no place for such talk. 

I don't mind the UN being a place to blast America. It comes with the territory. And it is good to have a place for countries with grievances to blow off steam. If they believe that is equivalent to action, great. I once (more than two decades ago) thought a League of Democracies would be an alternative to the UN. The urge to see that as our salvation persists. But let's not pretend democracies are an automatic source of support for America.

At the risk of digressing, I do see one way such a parallel international body hosted by Taiwan could be useful. 

The UN is now a place for enemies to organize anti-Western activities under the guise of cultural, humanitarian, educational, or other reasons--with the West paying the bill--and should be ended. Drop the UN to a core of functions that eliminates the non-diplomatic and peacekeeping functions. And if we choose to have non-core functions under the UN, build a new UN complex in Kinshasa (to pick a Third World city at random) and see how eager people are for that duty station. Why not with global Internet capabilities?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Seeking the Goldilocks Standard of Support For Taiwan

Should America have a more explicit set of conditions for assisting Taiwan to prevent China from thinking we believe Taiwan is strong enough to fight without us? Maybe. But don't get carried away.  

What happens after deterrence over Taiwan fails? 

Much of the American debate over Taiwan concentrates on preventing China from using force in the first place. Strategic ambiguity is defended because uncertainty is supposed to complicate Chinese calculations while discouraging unilateral actions by Taipei. Strategic clarity is advocated because an explicit American commitment might convince Beijing that an attack cannot succeed without bringing the United States into the war. Chen approaches the problem from another direction: deterrence can also be weakened if Washington inadvertently signals that its willingness to act depends on Taiwan satisfying an escalating series of demands. 

Um [scratching my head and answering with an uptalk], war? 

Which is why I hate planning for deterrence rather than victory. 

How we fight will depend on how far along we are on the crawl-walk-run continuum for ground force readiness and cooperation with Taiwan.

Still, ambiguity about American intentions also serves to rein in Taiwan so they don't drag us into a war with China by initiating combat in a crisis, sure we will jump in to bail them out.

Strategy is hard.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Useful Idiots in a Circular Firing Squad

As we react to Russia's increasingly bold campaign of sabotage in Western countries, let's ponder the brilliance of China's far more effective campaign that relies on Western stupidity that pretends to save the world.

The Chinese must wake up each morning and thank Mao for having enemies who are morons:

The UK is deindustrializing, and has tied itself to China in more ways than one due to its foolish NetZero energy policies. 

And not just Britain. Europe more generally. And too many parts of America, too.

The Chinese exploit fear of climate change and a desire to be the planet's savior to downgrade any energy source but solar and wind. With the plausible supporting argument of reducing reliance on Middle East fossil fuels.

This transition to "renewables" increases costs of electricity resulting from the glorious "transition" to a "renewable" future is crippling Britain's industry (and Europe's, more broadly). It reduces the resilience of the electrical grid. This also allows China to earn lots of money to produce the wind and solar equipment that fuels the "transition." And this changes Western energy reliance on Middle East fossil fuels to Chinese solar panels and windmills.

One must give the Chinese Communist Party a grudging salute for their brilliance. 

Tip to InstaPundit. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from this article.