I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.
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In case you missed it on Substack: Europe's Competing Fears
In case you missed it on Substack: Taiwan Reports On Its Defense
In case you missed it on Substack: Monkey Weapons For a Long War
In case you missed it on Substack: War Plan RED
The Army wants swarms of small ground drones. I have my doubts about that.
Things are heating up between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Taiwan wants ten small frigates to counter air and submarine threats.
Iran’s mullahs want to get the old band together for some “Death to America” rallies. Isn’t that what we’d call a target-rich environment?
I think the main thing we can learn from the Winter War of 2022 is the “accelerated offense-defense technological cycle” from the drone war.
Do Xi’s military purges increase the risk that Xi will receive no cautions about embarking on a war? Or were they standing in the way of preparing for the war Xi dreams about?
As I’ve said, America is not becoming isolationist: “Trumpism did not lead, as critics predicted, to isolationism and the abandonment of America’s allies and interests.” America is reorienting and reloading. And hoping to avoid ground wars.
Russian logistics failures—while good enough to keep fighting this war—undermine Russia’s military capabilities. Not that we should relax. But remember that Stalin’s World War II advances were aided by masses of Allied trucks that helped keep the Red Army moving.
So far, Russian opposition to waging war on Ukraine and $5 will get you a cup of coffee.
This year Singapore will get its first of an eventual 20 F-35s purchased.
Really interesting denial that drones ended maneuver: “History suggests that when armies falter, new weapons often rise to compensate: not because they transform war, but rather because they expose the weaknesses of those fighting it.” Maneuver is not dead.
Does the Venezuela air power and cyber demonstration show a new strategic model? No. There were boots on the ground in this special forces mission. It’s just one more thing in the combined arms kit.
China weakens helps Russia: “Ukraine receives satellite intelligence from the United States. Russian military satellites are in such bad shape that Russia must depend on China for satellite imagery.” Putting the “enemy” in “frenemy”.
The Pentagon wants swarms of UAVs that can be launched and recovered from boxes.
The Russians have worries about their SSBN bastion in the Arctic if American power in the region expands. Well, we have worries about Russian expansion, too.
Well of course American SSNs could operate out of Australia’s new SSN base.
Will the “temporary” yellow line n Gaza become Israel’s new border with Hamas? As long as Hamas refuses to surrender, yes. And maybe it is for the best.
That seems wise: “Planning a massive expansion of its armed forces by 2039, Poland is deliberately building a national capacity for sustained high-intensity war.” America is involved.
Bringing ISIL prisoners into Iraq from Syria to hold them is better than letting them escape in Syria to then threaten Iraq and the region. But only if they don’t escape in Iraq.
Russia’s shutdown of Telegram to stifle questions about Russian claims of inevitable victory over Ukraine will harm their own military which uses it rather than crappy military communications.
Somebody is under pressure: “U.S. military forces boarded a sanctioned oil tanker in the Indian Ocean after tracking the ship from the Caribbean Sea, the Pentagon said Monday.”
Maybe a carrier strike group shouldn’t be the only solution to a foreign crisis.
After nearly 25 years of effort to move 5,000 Marines from Okinawa to Guam, we should say “never mind”? I’d rather not have them pinned on Okinawa under Chinese missile fire. And about keeping that Marine airfield on Okinawa.
I like to think modularity is a good idea that we screwed the pooch on with the LCS.
Huh: “Indonesia’s army is preparing up to 8,000 troops for a possible peacekeeping mission in Gaza[.]”
The diplomatic dance of American policy toward China as America says “nice snarling doggy” while reaching for a big stick.
I’d rather face the problems of a declining China and Russia than face the problems of a rising China and Russia better able to enable their aggressive goals.
Is China really brilliantly (somehow) pressuring Taiwan to take it over without force?Or just pretending—perhaps reinforcing a CCP ploy to “appear far”—that China isn’t planning for war.
American interference with Cuba’s oil imports is hurting that socialist Hell hole. Although implying that America’s refusal to trade causes Cuba’s past problems ignores that the rest of the world traded with Cuba. It’s ultimately a socialism problem.
It is interesting that the Special Forces cheap close air support plane for low and slow missions fighting insurgents is now getting stand-off weapons.
Advocates for the Air Force say it needs 300+ next-generation F-47 fighters and 200+ B-21 bombers.
The status of the potential Northwest Passage will be decided by capabilities and not laws. I feel the same way about the South China Sea.
I certainly want this crisis in Iran to be the one that overthrows the mullahs. But I’ve been hoping all my adult life.
A large American airlift to the Middle East is nothing relatively speaking without a massive sealift, too. But it could mean a significant non-ground campaign against Iran.
Huh: “According to reports, China conducted a low-yield nuclear explosive test [in 2020] and failed to disclose it.”
Arguing that Russia’s offensive hasn’t progressed beyond the scope of the 1916 Battle of the Somme on the World War I Western Front. I was all over that Western Front issue in Army magazine.
Pakistan’s military wants to maintain it political control inside Pakistan and wants help to confront India. China is glad to help.
Russia wages war on Europe to win the war against Ukraine.
Working to integrate small UAVs into American armored brigades.
Drone defense: “The Army signed a $5.2 million deal for the Bumblebee V2, a type of small inexpensive drone that counters enemy aircraft by crashing directly into them.“ Fighter drones!
Well, war is organized violence after all: “Buoyed by billions in investments into robotic systems, the Navy is considering how it will manage the swarms of unmanned surface, subsurface and aerial drones throughout the fleet.” I have my doubts about blue water USV swarms.
Helping those who help themselves: “The U.S. is sending 200 troops to Nigeria to train the country’s military to fight Islamist militants[.]”
Covid might look like a walk in the park by comparison. Please adjust your pucker factor to its fully upright position.
Two older Los Angeles boats are just the tip of the INDOPACOM SSN iceberg, right? I really don’t get why we do stunts like this.
I’m rather shocked that the president’s ability to use the National Guard was curtailed. I mean, I spent a lot of time in uniform mowing grass and cleaning things. It’s not unusual.
Cancelling the conversion of Marine MLRs at two—which I mentioned—is the beginning of restoring Marine capabilities divested in Force Design 2030. The MLRs could become forward observers, essentially, to call in fires from other units. To include Marine aircraft and helicopters?
Unless I’m missing something important, Britain’s effort to turn over the Chagos Islands, thus putting the Diego Garcia base at risk seems insane.
Yes, I worry that China’s arsenal of autocracy could overwhelm America in a years-long war.
Was this a mercenary business deal in Congo or an informal American expedition?
Forward defense of the North Atlantic: “The UK government has pledged to increase its military presence in Norway over the next three years, as part of efforts to combat Russian threats in the region.” The increase doubles their 1,000 troops. Building the bastion, eh?
Iran will not agree to real limits on uranium enrichment or ballistic missiles. Iran already has its model for a deal.
Did drug cartel UAV use prompt the U.S. to close the air space over El Paso, Texas?
This is not shocking at all: “The State Department has concluded that Code Pink and People's Forum are linked to Chinese influence operations, according to a report the agency sent to Congress.” Cause or effect? Tips to Instapundit.
Are 4th generation nuclear weapons small enough and different enough to be considered non-nuclear (by China—not their victims) warheads to overwhelm Taiwan’s missile defenses with long-range ballistic missiles? Or Guam or Okinawa, for that matter.
Unrest in Iran already defies claims that the 12-Day War would of course cause Iranians to rally around the flag. Is the situation different enough from past protest movements to collapse the mullah regime?
A second carrier strike group ordered to get ready for deploying to CENTCOM.
I think refusing to prosecute legislators for the unnecessary and terrible “illegal orders” video is correct (I was taught that as a new recruit). But former or retired officers should resign their commission and forfeit their pension if elected to office so they won’t violate the UCMJ.
The Air Force is working on hub and spoke deployments for aircraft in the Pacific to avoid being in the hub bullseye.
It seems like Britain is reaching out to fellow JEF member, Norway, to bolster defense against the Russian threat from the north. Defending the GIN Gap is better than the GIUK Gap, eh? Tip to Matthew Palmer.
The Navy gets anti-drone rifle ammunition. Add smart rifles as I addressed on the USNI Blog, and now we’re talking!
Star Orbital wars.
Well that’s boring: “American policymakers are telling European leaders not to expect major U.S. troop drawdowns anytime soon, according to seven U.S. and NATO officials, calming widespread fears across the continent’s capitals.”
Allies, friends, enemies, and foes get nervous when a country as powerful as America stops being predictable. But it is not random. I believe Trump is simply in a hurry to achieve things that can’t be done by blue ribbon white papers issued in five years and then ignored.
I just don’t see the purported opportunities that China is trying to exploit within America’s allegedly roiling alliances. Especially in Asia.
How will Japan’s Takaichi use her new mandate to change Japan?
The House of Representatives pushed back on Trump’s tariffs on Canada. I suspect his interpretation of his tariff powers are overly broad. But then again as I’ve often said, it’s not what government does that is illegal that shocks me, but what it does that is perfectly legal.
China’s program for espionage and to fund and focus useful idiots in democratic countries.
Post-Maduro Venezuela: “The downside is that after Maduro’s exit, Chavismo becomes a guerrilla group, and the upside is that oil revenues, better managed by a new business elite, are used to finance a reconstruction plan for Venezuela modeled on the Marshall Plan.” Fingers crossed.
Mission accomplished notwithstanding the absolute silliness of fearing America more than Russia: “NATO is beefing up its Arctic presence in a move designed less to deter Russia than it is to deter Donald Trump.”
Syria’s Islamist forces have occupied the evacuated American base at al-Tanf. Iraq is losing its shield. I just thank God we didn’t further militarize the Syrian conflict to help non-jihadis defeat Assad. All I can say in favor is that a war to hold our Syria bases would be a mistake.
The evolution of naval combat against a peer enemy means there will be few safe havens in a war. Or even none. The RAND report cited was written by Bradley Martin who I had as a TA in college. He was easily the best TA I had.
I simply don’t believe that North Korea’s blue water navy is a threat.
This is not America abandoning NATO: “Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby on Thursday called for NATO to be based on “partnership rather than dependency” ahead of talks with the military alliance’s defense ministers in Brussels.”
Can we build what we fund? “The fiscal 2027 defense budget could double the number of ships the Navy is set to procure under the fiscal 2026 defense budget[.]”
Japan is not bending to China’s pressure: “Japanese authorities have seized a Chinese fishing vessel and arrested the captain for allegedly defying an order to stop for inspection by fisheries authorities in Japan’s exclusive maritime economic zone, officials said.”
NATO’s Dynamic Front exercise: “The goal is to be able to shoot down 600 to 1200 ballistic missiles in a 24-hour period … as well as be able to fire on 1,500 [ground] targets during that same time.” So are the magazine’s still full in hour 25?
Sure, the American national defense strategy praises Trump a lot. It is uncomfortable to read. But let’s try context, eh? Recall how much the bureaucracy undermined the president in his first term. The price of that now is open expressions of support.
If we shot down a “party balloon” near El Paso rather than a drug cartel drone, we really need better abilities to track and identify small threats.
This defeated a drone swarm in a test: “The Coyote Block 3NK uses a non-kinetic payload to loiter and defeat UAS while aiming to reduce collateral damage.”
The Pentagon is seeking to protect the highly networked F-35 from being hacked. This type of problem was a worry of mine early on.
I think describing Russia’s strategy for "dominance" in Eurasia is kind of pointless given Russia’s face plant in Ukraine. Still, I see one path in Eurasia for survival.
The long path to transferring operational control of mostly South Korean forces during a war from America to South Korea. South Korea can handle much more of the jobs to defeat a North Korean invasion or attack. For America, horizons expand beyond the DMZ.
Is Xi losing control of his military? And could a war be started by the PLA not to achieve a foreign policy objective, but to wage that struggle?
Russia should worry about China and America settling their differences. China will not consider its vassal’s interests, so Russia should have a sense of urgency to settle its differences with America before China pounces. China is Russia’s frenemy—not partner without limits.
Cuba’s energy crisis deepens under American pressure.
Can America prevent Egypt’s persecution of its Christian minority? People forget that the Middle East bordering the Mediterranean was the center of Christianity until the Islamic empire conquered it. So more to the point, I wonder why the Pope doesn’t seem to care.
The U.S. is pushing Taiwan to spend more on defense. I’ve long wanted that.
FFS, this wasn’t a war game. It was a panic game. The United States would absolutely respond militarily if Russia attacked a NATO state.
The U.S. has the Bumblebee suicide drone to knock down attack drones. Counter-measures emerge.
The U.S. smuggled 6,000 Starlink terminals into Iran during this current wave of unrest. Would that support an actual insurrection timed with American-led strikes?
A U.S.-Taiwan trade deal includes Taiwanese investments in semiconductors, AI, and advanced electronics in the U.S. That’s interesting.
China is trying to mediate between Thailand and Cambodia. Also: “three months ago, Thai troops advanced further into Cambodia and seized a compound that had housed several thousand people engaged in scams [run by Chinese gangsters using stages of police stations or banks].”
Diluting China’s dominance: “India is making a multi-billion dollar effort to expand the Indian shipbuilding industry. Currently China builds 70 percent of commercial shipping while India builds only 7 percent.”
Method to Trump’s verbal madness: “Insufficient allied military surveillance and response infrastructure along the coast of east Greenland allows Russia to pose a credible and complex nuclear threat against both the U.S. homeland and the majority of NATO.”
America is preparing for a campaign against Iran lasting weeks. Does this indicate a campaign in support of a local insurrection?
Without a doubt American shipbuilding needs to learn from our allies.
America isn’t abandoning Europe. America is adapting its role to a new era. And it is a new era. But I understand why that change isn’t as relevant or apparent to Europeans when a reduced but still aggressive Russia is on their borders.
One more reason that America isn’t pro-Russian. We’re just trying surface niceness to get Russia to trust that we want their invasion of Ukraine to end more than we want Russia to be destroyed. Me too, honestly, despite my long support for a free Ukraine.
Erdogan has turned Turkey into a “soft” Islamist government. Democracy and the economy have been wrecked. Will Turkey change course?
The Dutch provide the Navy with a LST design.
Somalia. Welp … .
America is not walking away from Europe. America wants to be a partner with strong and confident European friends and allies. Rubio plays the “good cop” to Trump’s “bad cop.”
Putin really is a bastard: “Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died in a remote Siberian prison two years ago, was almost certainly poisoned with a deadly toxin found in South American dart frogs, five European governments said Saturday.”
I recently read an author migrating away from Substack say that this platform doesn’t let search engines index articles. That shocked me. But when I look at statistics, hits from Google are rare. So now I will reproduce Substack article introductions on the TDR mothership with a link here for the full Substack article.
