Seeking the Goldilocks Standard of Support For Taiwan

Should America have a more explicit set of conditions for assisting Taiwan to prevent China from thinking we believe Taiwan is strong enough to fight without us? Maybe. But don't get carried away.  

What happens after deterrence over Taiwan fails? 

Much of the American debate over Taiwan concentrates on preventing China from using force in the first place. Strategic ambiguity is defended because uncertainty is supposed to complicate Chinese calculations while discouraging unilateral actions by Taipei. Strategic clarity is advocated because an explicit American commitment might convince Beijing that an attack cannot succeed without bringing the United States into the war. Chen approaches the problem from another direction: deterrence can also be weakened if Washington inadvertently signals that its willingness to act depends on Taiwan satisfying an escalating series of demands. 

Um [scratching my head and answering with an uptalk], war? 

Which is why I hate planning for deterrence rather than victory. 

How we fight will depend on how far along we are on the crawl-walk-run continuum for ground force readiness and cooperation with Taiwan.

Still, ambiguity about American intentions also serves to rein in Taiwan so they don't drag us into a war with China by initiating combat in a crisis, sure we will jump in to bail them out.

Strategy is hard.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Useful Idiots in a Circular Firing Squad

As we react to Russia's increasingly bold campaign of sabotage in Western countries, let's ponder the brilliance of China's far more effective campaign that relies on Western stupidity that pretends to save the world.

The Chinese must wake up each morning and thank Mao for having enemies who are morons:

The UK is deindustrializing, and has tied itself to China in more ways than one due to its foolish NetZero energy policies. 

And not just Britain. Europe more generally. And too many parts of America, too.

The Chinese exploit fear of climate change and a desire to be the planet's savior to downgrade any energy source but solar and wind. With the plausible supporting argument of reducing reliance on Middle East fossil fuels.

This transition to "renewables" increases costs of electricity resulting from the glorious "transition" to a "renewable" future is crippling Britain's industry (and Europe's, more broadly). It reduces the resilience of the electrical grid. This also allows China to earn lots of money to produce the wind and solar equipment that fuels the "transition." And this changes Western energy reliance on Middle East fossil fuels to Chinese solar panels and windmills.

One must give the Chinese Communist Party a grudging salute for their brilliance. 

Tip to InstaPundit. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Image from this article.

Jointness Should Cut Out the Middleman, No?

In a joint force, why is the Army practicing moving artillery by air to conduct brief artillery barrages? Why not just have the Air Force bomb the target, which is an Air Force job to support the Army.

This is somewhat confusing:

The U.S. Army demonstrated how M119 105 mm howitzers can be rapidly inserted, fired and repositioned by UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters during a September 10 live-fire gun raid in Hawaii, according to imagery released by DVIDS on September 18, 2026. The exercise highlights how air-mobile artillery can deliver fire support from temporary positions while reducing dependence on roads and limiting exposure to drones, counter-battery sensors and long-range surveillance. [emphasis in original]

I mean, get ground force artillery raids and shoot-and-scoot--by land. But why use an aircraft to move an artillery piece to fire at the enemy when the Air Force could just bomb the target with one of its aircraft? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Don't Be Hasty in Drawing Univeral Lessons From Ukraine

Drones have an unusually large effect in the Winter War of 2022 because of the static nature of the front.

Drones got rushed into service in the artillery shell shortage as the only type of ammunition that Ukraine could get. First dropping grenades and then suicide drones. They have proven crucial to slowing down the Russians to a crawl and inflicting heavy casualties. But their role cannot just be cut and pasted into other armies.

Seriously, a static front amplifies drone capabilities: 

In parts of the thousand-kilometer front line, there are bunkers that have been in use for months or years. In quiet parts of the front, drone teams spend most of their time doing surveillance, with the occasional call for an attack drone. When new operators gain enough experience in their quiet zones, they are sent to more active areas to do their thing.

I've felt that way for a long time. Get the front moving and drone teams don't have their sanctuary to learn their trade and to simply survive under cover and concealment. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Winter War of 2022 Ponders Life After War

 

How will Russia and Ukraine react to peace? Will it be peace or a ceasefire to reload? And will both Russia and Ukraine follow the same war or peace path? Putin (and many Russians) only saw Ukraine as the priority target that would provide the most bang for the buck. It is a large country that if captured pushes Russia’s borders far west and secures the northern shores of the Black Sea. Ukraine appeared to Putin to be ripe for plucking, eager to display their Inner Russian nature for Holy Mother Russia’s loving embrace back into the family of Slavic peoples. But after cold reality has battered Russian delusions, could Russia look elsewhere for easier targets for now?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Life Within the PLA Weapons Engagement Zone

In case you missed it on Substack: North Korea's Floating Speed Bump?

In case you missed it on Substack: Expanding Combined Arms Warfare

In case you missed it on Substack: Balancing Global Interests

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

A-Whacks Will Fly!

See? My ideas aren't all stupid!

The Air Force wants it cargo planes to be adapted for counter-UAS missions: 

The U.S. Air Force is looking to turn its cargo planes into launch platforms for drone swarms. ...

The goal is to transform cargo planes into “adaptive, force-multiplying launch platforms” that provide “a rapidly deployable swarm for base security,” according to an Air Force Small Business Innovation Research solicitation. 

These planes will protect air bases but also escort other transports and tankers in flight, in addition to being able to control UAV swarms.

It's the A-Whacks plane!! Come on Air Force, use my nickname! I ask for so little. 

As an aside, it's so cute that the Army thinks the Air Force will prioritize its cargo planes to move Army units.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article.

Saudi Arabia's High Wire Juggling Act

Is Saudi Arabia's alliance with Turkey and Pakistan just keeping rivals inside the tent pissing out?

I've noted that Saudi Arabia is in a precarious position:

Arab states in the Middle East can't be sleeping as well at night as they look around and see rival Moslem powers ringing the Middle East vying for the loyalties of Arab Moslems.

Rival non-Arab powers like Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan ring the Arab Gulf region. And Israel, of course.

Not to mention internal threats from a Shia minority and Sunni Islamists who want the Saudi government to be more overtly and aggressively Islamist.

Saudi Arabia is wealthy but militarily weak. It has "target" written all over it. Lots of high-tech weapons. But without hired contractors could the planes fly or fight? Yes, Egypt is potentially a sword to help the Saudis. But Egypt is broke and needs lots of subsidies to have an impact on the balance.

Which makes me wonder a couple things. Is Saudi Arabia's alliance this year with Pakistan (already an ally) and Turkey an effort to get rivals outside the Saudi tent to come inside to isolate Iran rather than risk an alignment of non-Arab states against Saudi Arabia?

And is this alliance a means to stiff-arm Saudi normalization of relations with Israel or a means to enable restored relations and joining the Abraham Accords by highlighting a Moslem counter-weight?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from here.