Follow the Oil

Iran may use their Houthi proxy to interfere with Red Sea traffic, some of which is bypassing Hormuz. Iran has spent a lot of years trying to build a proxy in that region capable of doing this.

Iran looks farther away:

Having choked off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is now signaling it could play its most dangerous card yet: using Yemen's Houthi allies to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea, opening a new front against Washington and putting two of the world's most vital energy arteries ‌at risk. 

I quibble with the claim that Iran has choked off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. I say their threat could be defeated but nobody wants to expend the effort to do so, preferring to wait until the crisis ends ... somehow. If oil shortages really hit, the effort would be made. 

But yes, Iran has a Plan B for the Gulf State Plan B of bypassing Hormuz. A capability Iran has long pursued. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Chinese Communist Party Bridgeheads On American College Campuses

China has infiltrated America via its Chinese Students and Scholars Associations (CSSAs) on American college and university campuses.

 China has 150 bridgeheads in American higher education (tip to InstaPundit):

There are 150 CSSA chapters at colleges and universities across the country. Though they appear to be harmless cultural groups at first glance, these organizations play a central role in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) united front work, which aims to monitor Chinese students abroad, stifle any form of opposition to the regime, and co-opt individuals who aren’t affiliated with the party. 

This is sadly nothing new. I've called attention to the issue in the past when China had Confucius Institutes in their arsenal of influence weapons inside America. 

Names change but the CCP war against America continues. Are we powerless to stop this?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

The Winter War of 2022 Ponders Its Life Choices

 

I must conclude that Russia’s ground forces have essentially collapsed for all practical purposes in an offensive role. When they have proven for three months that they are no longer the relentless steam roller constantly—if slowly—advancing into Ukraine despite losses, refusing to accept that is willful blindness. And their defensive abilities are suspect. Russian ground forces could recover, of course, given time and resources. Is Ukraine capable of exploiting this time of military troubles plaguing the Russian ground forces?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to put the essay there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: A Redesignation Ceremony! A Redesignation Ceremony!! 

In case you missed it on Substack: The Air Force Steps Up to Kill Ships

In case you missed it on Substack:  America Doesn't Lead?

In case you missed it on Substack:  Blockading Taiwan (Part 1)

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

A Mission Kill is Equivalent to Sunk if Repairs are Impossible

Unless you assume that great power war will quickly escalate to world-ending nuclear exchanges, repairing battle damage to our fleet is a vital component of waging war. America has problems.

Cross-filed in the “Well, Duh” and “Sh*t Got Real” files: 

Battle-damaged U.S. warships could not be quickly repaired and returned to combat during a war with China, according to a new report. ...

“The Navy has not faced damage at the level likely to occur in a major war since World War II,” warned RAND.  

I worry a great deal about that. Although perhaps we can return the favor in our own way.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Invisible Stealth Edge

Does China fail to appreciate what makes American stealth aircraft so formidable?

That's quite interesting:

But China has learned the wrong lessons from America’s stealth program, according to U.S. Air Force analysis released this month. China is convinced that advanced technology is the foundation of U.S. stealth capabilities.

But in reality, the key to American success has been treating stealth as just one component of integrated aerial warfare, the report said.

The Chinese seem to think a wonder detection system can defeat our stealth wonder weapons.

Do the Chinese think that stealth aircraft don't need to operate with electronic warfare support and all the other assets that America brings to an air campaign? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photograph from the article.

The German Question Gets Answered in Russian

Germany, as one would expect from history and power, sees Russia as the greatest threat to it.

Germany has a new military strategy:

It sets no concrete force-building targets to review annually and trigger a political response when not met.

Despite this, the analysis does contain some positive points suggesting a shift in the military’s mindset. The Bundeswehr’s focus on the threat Russia poses is sensible, as is the recognition that Europe must provide its own conventional defense within NATO, as the United States clearly has other priorities.

The German Question's answer has been fluid, but with a document called an actual military strategy, the Germans seem committed. 

I'm not worried that force structure isn't an apparent priority because Germany needs the defense industry to support an expansion. Otherwise, the expanded force structure will be hollow.

But is Germany quietly falling apart? Will new resolve be overwhelmed by the circular firing squad that Germany resembles today? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article.

Small UAVs: Part of a Complete Combined Arms Breakfast

Small drones get cut down to size. But there is a catch. You have to adapt to defeat them. Shocking, I know.

Drones are not wonder weapons. And once outside of the counter-measures vacuum they have exploited, the normal rules of combined arms operations will reassert themselves:

A new theory about the hider-finder competition between air penetration and air defense shows that drones are vulnerable to air defenses and electronic warfare systems, and that they require support from other force structure assets to be effective. This competition imposes high costs on those who fail to master the set of tactics, techniques, procedures, technologies, and capabilities necessary to limit exposure to enemy fire and to detect enemy targets.

Preaching to the TDR choir, they are!  

I'm not sure what is new about their formulation of the usual competition between lethality and protection is. But I'll not quibble when so many throw panties at FPV suicide drones. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from U.S. Army.