Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Life Within the PLA Weapons Engagement Zone

In case you missed it on Substack: North Korea's Floating Speed Bump?

In case you missed it on Substack: Expanding Combined Arms Warfare

In case you missed it on Substack: Balancing Global Interests

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

A-Whacks Will Fly!

See? My ideas aren't all stupid!

The Air Force wants it cargo planes to be adapted for counter-UAS missions: 

The U.S. Air Force is looking to turn its cargo planes into launch platforms for drone swarms. ...

The goal is to transform cargo planes into “adaptive, force-multiplying launch platforms” that provide “a rapidly deployable swarm for base security,” according to an Air Force Small Business Innovation Research solicitation. 

These planes will protect air bases but also escort other transports and tankers in flight, in addition to being able to control UAV swarms.

It's the A-Whacks plane!! Come on Air Force, use my nickname! I ask for so little. 

As an aside, it's so cute that the Army thinks the Air Force will prioritize its cargo planes to move Army units.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article.

Saudi Arabia's High Wire Juggling Act

Is Saudi Arabia's alliance with Turkey and Pakistan just keeping rivals inside the tent pissing out?

I've noted that Saudi Arabia is in a precarious position:

Arab states in the Middle East can't be sleeping as well at night as they look around and see rival Moslem powers ringing the Middle East vying for the loyalties of Arab Moslems.

Rival non-Arab powers like Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan ring the Arab Gulf region. And Israel, of course.

Not to mention internal threats from a Shia minority and Sunni Islamists who want the Saudi government to be more overtly and aggressively Islamist.

Saudi Arabia is wealthy but militarily weak. It has "target" written all over it. Lots of high-tech weapons. But without hired contractors could the planes fly or fight? Yes, Egypt is potentially a sword to help the Saudis. But Egypt is broke and needs lots of subsidies to have an impact on the balance.

Which makes me wonder a couple things. Is Saudi Arabia's alliance this year with Pakistan (already an ally) and Turkey an effort to get rivals outside the Saudi tent to come inside to isolate Iran rather than risk an alignment of non-Arab states against Saudi Arabia?

And is this alliance a means to stiff-arm Saudi normalization of relations with Israel or a means to enable restored relations and joining the Abraham Accords by highlighting a Moslem counter-weight?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from here.

Reality Shocks the Air Force

How is it possible for the Air Force to be "concerned" about Reaper losses over Iran when that surely is the expected outcome?

The Air Force wants to replace the Reaper drone:

Following steep losses of the General Atomics MQ-9A Reaper in recent combat operations against Iran, Air Force officials are accelerating efforts to replace the venerable drone with a new unmanned aircraft at a price of $10 million each.

Seriously, the losses are from the "Well Duh" files.

The drones excelled in operations against insurgents who lacked air defenses. It cannot be a surprise that air defense can shoot down Reapers. 

Further, drones are sent into areas we don't want to risk pilots. No doubt losses would be lower if we planned missions the same as crewed aircraft.

Finally, the answer isn't another expensive drone. Aim for semi-disposable, eh?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Use All of the Kill Chain to Defend Against Enemy Attacks

Shooting down a missile when it is getting close is great. But you need to knock out their targeting assets, too. You need point defense. You need the means to hit the incoming missile earlier in the flight path. You need to hit it just after launch and better yet before it launches. And by all means, putting your troops on their launch sites is the ultimate missile defense.

Preaching to the TDR choir, he is:

You cannot defend your way out of an asymmetric attrition fight. When an adversary possesses access to cheap, mass-produced offensive weaponry and is driven by an unyielding ideological commitment to disrupt regional stability, playing passive defense is a recipe for strategic exhaustion.

Yet across the waters surrounding the Arabian Peninsula, American and allied strategy remains trapped in precisely this reactive posture. While Western attention drifts between competing geopolitical flashpoints, the security environment in the southern Red Sea is deteriorating toward an acute strategic crisis. Along the coastal lowlands and rugged mountain terrain of western Yemen, Houthi forces are consolidating ground and maneuvering heavy assets toward the strategic port city of Mokha. Their operational objective is unmistakable: to establish a fortified anti-access and area-denial bubble capable of physically closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

We can't just be ducks for the enemy's target practice. We must extend ship defense against arrows to wherever the archer is standing to the very beginning of the enemy kill chain to our targeted ships. This applies to cheap anti-ship drones as much as it does to ballistic missiles (which are cheap compared to the systems needed to defeat them).

And sometimes you have to stand on the ground the enemy archers need. Especially when they occupy islands and ports that make them easier targets to reach and destroy.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the BBC.

Ticket-Punching in the Russian Military

On paper, Russian commanders have combat experience. The reality almost certainly doesn't match the paper trail.

Part of Russia's poor combat performance may stem from "short command tours [which] reminds me of some of the problems we had in Vietnam that we repeated in GWOT."

Could be. I commented on that aspect of their vaunted Syrian intervention when large numbers of officers rotated through Syria:

My question is whether the Russian officers who briefly served in Syria learned to lead a fight or just punched tickets in a simulation of learning.

I'm guessing my question was valid given practice during the current much more serious war.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. Oddly, when I told it to edit the picture to show the officers lined up one behind the other, I was refused with the system saying it detected unsafe image. Why?? Bing is great but it makes it difficult for defense authors to generate illustrations.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Wildly Divergent Potential Timelines

 

Is Russia going super big on a Plan 2027 to create an even larger bulldozer to plow their way to victory? I think that plan would have worked in February 2022. I don’t know if Russia’s arsenal, soldiers, or people can stand that kind of effort now given their casualties and equipment losses over the last 4-1/2 years. And just what is Ukraine up to? I mean other than their aerial drone barrage on Russia. Or is that just my hopes getting way ahead of actual capabilities?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Dysfunction of America’s Defense Industry

In case you missed it on Substack: Calculating a PLA Defeat on Taiwan

In case you missed it on Substack: Waiting For Egypt?

In case you missed it on Substack: Killing the Rain is Hard

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.