No Doubt it Sucks to Be Russia

A three-day capture of Kyiv followed by a few weeks of mopping up the rest of Ukraine would have made European aid to Ukraine irrelevant. In a long war, it matters.

Russia’s ability to pound Ukraine into submission has a flaw: 

Russia faces a fundamental asymmetry as it seeks to beat Ukraine into submission with intensifying airstrikes on shopping malls, power stations, ports and other infrastructure. Kyiv can rely on a secure hinterland beyond its borders—its European neighbors—for economic resilience and for military logistics. ...

This lopsided geopolitical setup offsets, to a significant degree, Russia’s advantage in firepower. 

Early in the war, I highlighted the economic and military support the West provided Ukraine despite Russia's 9:1 GDP edge:

Ukraine is being supplied by the West, which has an immensely greater GDP advantage than Russia's advantage over Ukraine. So you can't just count the value of the arms and services provided to Ukraine when comparing the economic advantage. You'd have to count the research and development and logistics value on Ukraine's side of the ledger that provides the weapons, supplies, and services. 

As for Russian whining about Western logistics sanctuaries? Nobody is bombing Belarus, North Korea, or China. Sure, Iran is being bombed but that's not mainly related to Russia's war effort. And let's talk about how the North Koreans and North Vietnamese were armed when we fought them, okay? 

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Blackhawk Company Learned Without Bleeding

An American company commander widely reported as getting his clock cleaned by Ukrainian drone operators in an exercise gives his perspective.

This exercise was not intended to replicate our coming countermeasures, it was a lesson about what happens without them:

We did not have counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (cUAS) capability that we would have wanted. Our brigade was not a Transformation-in-Contact (TiC) unit that places new, sometimes untested weapons and tech directly in the hands of soldiers.

Perhaps the Army and industry partners have already developed a secret “win button” device for drone warfare. But if they did, we didn’t have it.

But fighting a tilted, uphill battle against seasoned combat veterans is exactly what made the experience so valuable. We did not complain; we adapted, accepting that the sky — in perpetuity, not just sporadically — was now part of the battlefield.

The company learned how to operate without active countermeasures to cope with the threat. Skills that will be necessary even when the company can fight back.

Note too that the enemy needed ground troops to find and target them after the company exploited terrain as cover from aerial recon. And when on offense during the exercise with Ukrainian drone help from the Nemesis unit, the exercise exposed a weakness of drones:

When we maneuvered and made the hunters of Nemesis feel like the hunted, the skies cleared up. 

Yes, secure positions behind static lines amplify drone effectiveness. 

I commented on the panty-flinging by drone enthusiasts for a different exercise with similar results. 

I also heard that the American exercise was supposed to help train Ukrainian drone operators. Which would help Ukraine fight more effectively if Russia resumes mechanized warfare.

Learning in realistic exercises is better than learning in deadly combat. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

The Winter War of 2022 Goes Big or Goes Home?

 

Will Russia finally grind down Ukraine’s civilian morale from the air and pound their way through Ukraine’s ground forces with a bigger sledgehammer after mobilizing reservists and throwing in accumulated equipment? Or will Russia face its own 1944 Battle of the Bulge offensive failure that expends its last reserves? Or a 1943 Kursk offensive failure that leaves Russia without significant reserves to counter-attack? Or even a Karbala V bloody failure that collapses Russian troop morale for holding occupied territory?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Bradley Plus UGV Drone Swarms

In case you missed it on Substack: Only Putin Can Go to Washington, D.C.

In case you missed it on Substack: The Navy Must Evolve for Sea Control

In case you missed it on Substack: The War on Islamist Terror at 25

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

NATO Cooperation in the Arctic

Does NATO do enough in the Arctic region to contain Russia and its Chinese partner?

Is this sufficient to increase NATO capabilities in the Arctic?

On the military side of NATO, the establishment in 2019 of NATO Joint Force Command Norfolk (JFC NF) is important because it brings most of NATO’s Arctic activity under one command. The command is also staffed with many officers from the Arctic states, thus serving as an integration hub for the states in question, as well as other allies who operate in the Arctic, such as the UK and the Netherlands. JFC NF is also responsible for NATO’s Regional Plan Northwest, which covers the north Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic and the Nordic region. Allied operations and exercises in the High North are therefore often related to this plan in one way or the other.

To me, that's close but no cigar. Yes, the Arctic is included in JFC NF. But it is not exclusively focused on mastering that region and its unique challenges. Is America's Nordic Bridge initiative carved out of NORTHCOM and bringing other entities in to better coordinate Arctic missions enough?

I'd like to see the Joint Expeditionary Command (JEF) shed members on the eastern front, add Canada, and be the element that focuses its NATO members on Arctic operations.

And if America sets up POLARCOM, America could better contribute to and coordinate with NATO's JEF members in the Arctic to face China-supported Russia.

Then, JFC NF could narrow its scope to the North Atlantic and sub-Arctic Nordic region.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from NOAA.

Twenty-five Years After Realizing We Were at War With Jihadis

It has been 25 years since jihadis forced Americans to realize jihadis were waging war on us.

 

I address the day we could no longer deny we were at war and the quarter century since then here:

So yes, the war goes on. Some complain it is an “endless war.” As if it is our fault our jihadi enemies are persistent in their belief they must kill us and our civilization. If the war is endless it is not our fault. Which is all the more reason we must fight the war by killing our enemies and rewarding the elements of Islam that would rather reform Islam, and win the very long war[.]

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo by Julien Maculan on Unsplash  

Will Canada Defend its North?

While Canada has fixated on demonizing America over trade issues, Russia looms over Canada's ill-defended Arctic border.

Sure, Lake Ontario America was humorous. But the Canadians have lost their minds. This is not a good time to joke around. We need to speak softly and refrain from making sudden moves. But this is an excellent point about Canada facing an actual threat:

In Canada, with the second-longest Arctic coastline, the “Our North, Strong and Free” declaration has to be underpinned by effective policy. 

I've long wanted Canada to bolster its Arctic defenses:

Canada has my enduring thanks for fighting and dying at our side in Afghanistan. It was a rare NATO ally who did that even under Article V. So if Canada revives defense spending primarily to safeguard the northern Pacific and Atlantic as well as the Arctic? Great!  

It seems that Canada is theoretically in agreement, We could complement that effort by establishing POLARCOM. 

Maybe we could motivate the Canadians by sailing an Amphibious Readiness Group around Hudson America Bay.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from here.

Who Controls the Hormuz Strait?

Iran loudly claims to control the Hormuz Strait. Our media largely parrots that claim. In fact, Iran has no control and limited ability to interdict traffic. America has some control and the ability to interdict traffic.

I've been saying for quite some time in Weekend Data Dumps that official statistics of ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz don't reflect the reality of American forces shepherding ships through Omani territorial waters with their beacons turned off ("dark transits"), making them invisible to those who count. And to the Iranians who want to shoot at them, of course.

Well:

An average of 8.6 million barrels of oil a day have been flowing through the Strait of Hormuz — more than previously reported, maritime analyst firm Kpler confirmed in a new update that matches estimates from the Trump administration.

Even I was unwilling to say it was that much. Just that some was getting out. And combined with increased pipeline and truck transport plus reduced demand, enough was getting out to get by. 

At some point when oil is delivered the statistics can be modified to show that a tanker had to transit the strait X days earlier.

Mind you, the pre-war  level was 21.6 million barrels per day. But in a couple years, pipelines might allow all the Arab states to fully bypass Hormuz.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.