The Winter War of 2022 Went on a Three-Week Tour

Russia's three-week parade formation blitz through Ukraine continues to rage on or near Ukraine's border with Russia. Russia's military is bleeding out and its economy is creaking. How long will either--and Russia's people--last under this pressure? Is America the only hope Russia has left? Maybe. But not in the way so may claim is true.

The war goes on. Even though attention is focused on the war with Iran. The Ukrainian counter-attacks in the Pokrovske sector seem to have expanded beyond just local counter-attacks in the ground it has liberated. I'd like to hope there is potential to get big enough to call it a counteroffensive. But I suspect the Ukrainian attacks will culminate and flow into a Russian spring offensive.

Let's talk greatest geopolitical mistake in history, shall we?

Four years after Russian dictator Vladimir Putin launched his blitzkrieg "special operation" to seize and annex every square kilometer of Ukraine, the former KGB colonel finds his corrupt, ineffectual but relentlessly murderous regime in a 21st-century military, economic and political quagmire.

Putin told his oligarch devotees the special operation would take three weeks at most.

While other costs have piled up, this one should be fatal to Putin:

"Total Russian losses since 2022 have been 1.4 million dead, disabled and missing." StrategyPage estimated Russian forces have suffered 400,000 casualties in the last 12 months and are currently "losing up to 35,000 soldiers a month." Mediazona researchers confirm by name 200,000 Russians military dead. Russia's government provides no figures. Two hundred thousand named dead makes a 400,000 death toll plausible.

Ukraine has suffered 55,000 military dead and some 300,000 wounded. Fifteen thousand civilians have been killed and 42,000 wounded.

Are Russians really fine with this debacle that has expended Russia's military on folly? A debacle that risks actual Russian territorial integrity by an actual threat? And it doesn't have to be invasion. Russia is falling so far, so fast that China may be able to quietly demand de facto control of key parts of Russia's Far East territory. How could Russia resist?

Russia is increasingly dependent on China for economic support and help in rebuilding an economy ravaged by more than four years of war in Ukraine. China is willing to help, but not as an ally but as a patron for its new Russian client state. China seeks to turn Russia into a vassal state. 

How much more time does Putin have to save Russia--and his own life--with a hard choice that reflects the real world?  Does Putin really want to risk the people around him being less paranoid than he is?

I don't really think China sent Putin as a plot against Russia. But the stupidity in Moscow is just mind boggling. Good Lord, could any foreign plot have harmed Russia more than Putin has?

Chimps with nukes, I say. 

Unless the seemingly pointless American peace talks with the Russians are just a cover for hammering out the terms of a Russian flip from aligning with China to America that ends Russia's war on Ukraine and hostility toward NATO. 

Hey, if Stalin could go from Hitler's enemy to his ally and then back to enemy again (but earlier than Stalin thought), why not this kind of realignment? 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: The Hollow NATO Expansion

In case you missed it on Substack (or here): Objective: IRAN

In case you missed it on Substack: Drone Worship Got a Big Dose of Silver Bullet Fever

In case you missed it on Substack: Intelligence and Putin's Preparations For War

In case you missed it on Substack: Setting Up Company Commanders For Failure

The Belgians (!) boarded and seized a Russian shadow oil tanker.

Some say the America-Israel campaign against Iran violates international law. But international law under the UN is supposed to stop threats to peace and order. See Russia. It does not. So we have to do it for ourselves. See also the Gaza Board of Peace immune to UN obstruction.

A dozen could support an invasion of Taiwan: “n 2025 China revived its practice of arming cargo ships with cargo containers containing anti-ship or land-attack missiles.” Indeed.

Ukraine targets Russian commanders.

Oh? “Photos released last week by the 25th Combat Aviation Brigade detailed the Hawaii-based AH-64s practicing “maritime deep attack” scenarios[.]” Huh.

I heard a BBC guest mock the American Iran campaign name “Operation Epic Fury”. I guess he’d prefer “Operation We’re Sorry and We Don’t Mean It”. And wait until he hears about what we called the Normandy Invasion! Very triggering, eh?

The claim by the author that America is disengaging with allies and eager to act unilaterally is nonsense. But yes, American military power relies on financial solvency to sustain it.

Is China successfully targeting France’s New Caledonia in the South Pacific?

Yes: “Both the U.S. and Israel have insisted that Iran abandon its nuclear development program. Israel cannot accept the existential threat posed by a nuclear-capable Iran. Nor, as I have written before, could the United States.”

China is the real target of the attack on Iran? FFS. No. Yes, defeating Iran weakens China. And Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, and assorted terrorist groups around the world. But the real target really is Iran and its nuke-seeking mullah rulers.

Pakistan got what it wanted and now fights the Taliban: “For decades, Pakistan’s generals and intelligence chiefs nurtured and supported the Taliban, giving them sanctuary from American and Western forces, arming them, funding them and supplying them with a constant flow of fresh recruits.”

The Reconquista hasn’t fully taken: “Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said Spain would not ​allow its military bases, which are jointly operated by the U.S. and Spain but under Spanish sovereignty, to be used for attacks on Iran, which Spain has condemned.”

I worry that Iranian enrichment capacity is a red herring that hides a possible Iranian purchase of North Korean nuclear missiles.

I appreciate Pakistan defending our consulate from being stormed by Islamists rioters. But they ride that dangerous tiger to their ultimate peril. Did I mention Pakistan has nuclear missiles?

Sadly, the people of Congo don’t attract the compassion of the Sainted International Community the way the self-destructive Palestinians get.

It isn’t shocking that Lebanon’s government has turned against Hezbollah. It is shocking that Hezbollah is now too weak to tell the government to pound sand.

Early in Epic Fury I mentioned that Iran’s wide retaliation would pull in allies. It has. And now critics say the war has “expanded.” LOL If allies hadn’t stepped up they’d say we are isolated. I don’t know if this campaign crushes the mullahs. But I do know Iran started the war fifty years ago.

Tip to Instapundit, descriptions of how America and Israel shoved aside Iran’s air defense network to strike ground targets at will should make us ask how an air force capable of doing this would enable maneuver on a drone-drenched battlefield.

The “wars” going on all the time around us.

Recalling the Democrats denying the War Powers Resolution applied to their Libya War. The explanation is astounding. No president of either party has accepted that legislation as constitutional. But whether they start the war or not defines a political party’s view.

Recalculating your route home: “Finland has joined India, China, Taiwan and several other countries in using highways for operating combat aircraft.” America, too, which I noted at the time.

Huh: “France will expand its nuclear arsenal and implement a policy of “advanced deterrence” that could include deploying nuclear-capable forces to the territory of European allies[.]” When we did that, Europeans said we wanted to wage a nuclear war on their territory.

We are not helpless, but it is a problem: “Iran has repeatedly threatened to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which is why tensions involving Tehran often ripple through energy markets.”

China will draw lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to apply to Taiwan. The biggest lesson is that if China takes as much of Taiwan as Russia did in its initial February advances, China will own three Taiwans. Size matters.

The Pentagon wants robot supply ships to sustain forces overseas.

How can you possibly trust Iranian fanatics on a mission from God to uphold a deal with infidels? “you can’t negotiate with them because their whole currency is lying, and they’re fanatic ideologues.”

Is Cuba’s government on the brink of collapse?

Small drones: we can watch everything over the front line. Satellites: Hold my beer. Tip to Instapundit.

China’s evil fanboys: “CCP-run propaganda outlets are promoting the anti-Iran War protests in the U.S. organized by the Singham Network, w/ CCP specifically pushing imagery from the ANSWER Coalition / the Party for Socialism & Liberation and quoting People’s Forum leaders.”

China shouldn’t worry about threatening Japan—no nuclear warheads: “Japan is expected to begin deploying domestically developed long-range missile systems, marking its shift towards an operational ‘counterstrike’ posture[.]

In World War II, American soldiers bringing auto mechanic skills into the field could keep trucks moving. Now, American soldiers bring their video game controller skills into the field for Remote Weapon Stations.

Drones have certainly transformed the ground war in Ukraine. But I think they will become just one more weapon in a combined arms fight when counter-measures are fully developed and when more capable militaries bring assets Russia and Ukraine don’t have to bear.

Trump said we will insure tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz and may escort them. Warships may be scarce, however. How about Navy in a Box for the job?

Meanwhile, SOUTHCOM has been busy inside Ecuador.

That’s gonna elevate your pucker factor all day: “Marines assigned to the U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, recently fired their weapons in self-defense after they were attacked by protestors who had breached the facility[.]”

Blast from the past: “U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer bombers conducted long-range strikes deep inside Iran on Sunday night, targeting ballistic missile facilities and command-and-control infrastructure[.]” Iran’s aircraft are old. Many of ours are, too.

France ordered their carrier strike group to the Mediterranean Sea and Greece ordered its aircraft and warships to protect Cyprus.

Will AUKUS evolve to JAUKUS? It seems like only yesterday I was reading predictions AUKUS would evolve to AUK.

The Iran War exposes cracks in NATO? No. The out-of-area Iran War exposes cracks in Europe over our Iran policy. NATO was not attacked. NATO is not involved as an alliance.

Seeking leverage for the remote regime change operation: “The Trump administration is quietly building a legal case against Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodriguez including readying a draft criminal indictment[.]”

I’ve long said I don’t trust Wikipedia for anything the Left cares about. It is much, much worse. It is a foreign influence operations.

Hanwha can’t perform miracles at our Philadelphia shipyard.

Yeah: “The United States recently experienced a short period of excitement and surprise about a presidential plan to build a new class of battleships. For various practical reasons the battleship plan was quietly laid to rest.” I was skeptical.

The U.S. fired a 250-mile range Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) from an unknown land position against an unknown Iranian target, in its combat debut.

Iran’s air force is largely composed of antiques? B-52: Hold my beer. For when you absolutely, positively have to drop 70,000 pounds of bombs in one sortie.

Spain refuses to provide America access to its bases to support the war against Iran. Yet it has joined Europeans who are providing air defense for Cyprus.

Iran’s underground safe havens for their ballistic missiles have turned into traps and tombs. I’ve long wondered if underground bunkers for large equipment aren’t just basically pre-buried.

An Israeli is the first F-35 pilot to get an air-to-air kill by shooting down an Iranian Yak-130. I wonder if the Iranian pilot was aware he was in combat?

Our undersea dominance is threatened: “China’s military is expanding its forces with new submarines and drone weapons that threaten America’s undersea advantage, senior Navy officers disclosed this week.”

China’s campaign to gain influence in Europe: “What China has done best is drive wedges within Europe as well as between Europe and the United States.”

Is demography not actually destiny? “Despite record-low birth rates among its billion-plus population, China continues to grow at roughly 5 percent, a pace most advanced economies would envy.” Unless China is lying about its growth rate …

The effort in Congress to trigger the War Powers Resolution to end the war against Iran (or rather, our active participation in Iran’s long war against America and Israel) failed.

America wants help from Ukraine in using cheaper interceptor drones to stop Iran’s drone attacks. If somebody had listened to my call for fighter drones that I made in this 2018 Army magazine article, we’d be fine now. But ignore the drone fanboy talk in the initial article.

Is long-calm Bangladesh becoming a security problem for India’s potential role in fixing Chinese military power away from Taiwan? I’ve read that Islamist thinking is expanding in Bangladesh. This is a problem if India wants to Fight East.

Russia organizes a small division—just two infantry regiments and a separate tank battalion as maneuver elements—to reinforce its forces facing Finland.

The luckiest Iranian troops in the world: “Sri Lanka has interned one of Tehran’s few remaining naval vessels and its crew on humanitarian grounds[.]” I wonder if they requested internment.

European air and naval forces have been ordered to CENTCOM to defend their and partner interests.

NORAD intercepted two Russian planes near Alaska and Canada.

Good enough for government-to-government work? “The United States and Venezuela agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations[.]”

Israel addresses Hezbollah, too.

Hell, ask for an effing pony, too: “The Canadian and Australian prime ministers on Thursday called for a de-escalation of the Iran war but added the Iranians must never gain a nuclear weapon.” These are not serious leaders.

GAO: “To maintain its reputation as the dominant military force worldwide, the [DOD must balance efforts to improve the readiness of its forces with meeting ongoing demands, modernizing its capabilities, and addressing priorities identified in the 2026 National Defense Strategy.”

I have little use for a hardware-focused measure of national military power. It always gets lots of attention. But not from me.

If America had endured a similar drubbing as Iran is subjected to, nobody would be arguing that the only lasting accomplishment might be to make our current government even stronger.

Peak China: “Unwillingness to reform, debt accumulation, and especially demography guarantee a China that essentially stops growing by the late 2030s.” I’ve been on that issue a long time.

Is China’s dramatic decrease in warplane activity around Taiwan a sign Xi is softening China’s image before a summit with Trump? Either that or a maintenance stand down prior to invading. I don’t assume we’d accurately predict an attack.

I’m not well versed in the issue but I’m darned sure I don’t like an American company refusing to work with the Pentagon: “The Trump administration on Thursday announced that it is designating the artificial intelligence company Anthropic as a supply chain risk.”

Europeans have had four years to find alternate supplies and abandon their green energy suicide pact: “Russian energy companies will soon divert part of their liquefied gas supplies from Europe to Asia with the blessing of President Vladimir Putin[.]”

Can and will Germany shot down Russia’s illegal oil exports through the Baltic Sea?

I have read that Xi may feel he has a weak hand when he meets Trump who has neutered Venezuela and has greatly weakened Iran—two Chinese clients. I wonder if China will try to balance the scales by taking Taiwan’s Pratas Island.

Remember when China was “winning” the Middle East?

The U.S. will send another carrier to CENTCOM. We’ll see how long it overlaps with Ford that is on a very long deployment now.

Better late than never: “An American anti-drone system proven to work against Russian drones in Ukraine will soon be sent to the Middle East to bolster U.S. defenses against Iranian drones[.]”

Indeed: “By the way if you've noticed far less Gaza propaganda in your feed it's not because Iran knocked Gaza off the front page. It's because Iran is what kept it there. Now that their cyber command has been smashed, so too has a global propaganda exercise.” Iran causes many problems. Via Instapundit.

CNN confirms that America and Israel are not bombing civilian targets like hospitals and schools. Which was too inconvenient to directly state. Tip to Instapundit.

China's Ticking Time Bomb in Panama

Panama's Tocumen International Airport may be a critical American vulnerability that China can exploit during a war. 

China's digital influence in Panama's air and sea transportation infrastructure is deep:

In Panama, this has included Huawei establishing a regional hub for telecommunications and logistics support, supplying backbone infrastructure that underpins government and private operations. Through Digital Silk Road initiatives, Chinese firms have bundled port-management software, biometric security systems, and surveillance equipment at Tocumen, often via commercial contracts with maintenance ecosystems that create proprietary lock-in. Despite recent U.S.-supported efforts to replace certain Huawei-linked systems, these layered maintenance and software dependencies remain difficult and costly to unwind. 

In my now than two decades old essay on how China could invade Taiwan, I mentioned a shot across the bow in Panama:

First, the Chinese will want to isolate the battlefield. This will start a week before the opening shots.

The Chinese should arrange an accident in the Panama Canal that blocks the waterway quite solidly for a good two weeks. Perhaps a volatile cargo will make it too risky to move fast until all the facts are in about the cargo and what it will take to secure it before refloating the ship and getting it out of the locks. Our carriers may not be able to use the canal but smaller warships and supply vessels use it, not to mention pure civilian traffic that relies on the canal. The disruption will hinder our movement and provide a warning jolt to our economy.

China may have far more subtle means of sending a message to America to back off. Or to cut us off.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from here.

Setting Up Company Commanders For Failure

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction here and see what happens. 

Are Army company commanders going to be overwhelmed with information processing and decision-making burdens that overwhelm them in high-intensity conventional combat?

Read the rest here. 

How Small Drones Can Be Incorporated Into Infantry Platoons

Drones could be part of an infantry platoon's standard kit. We're not there yet.

Every Marine a rifleman drone operator? 

At the Marine Corps Basic School in Quantico, Virginia, a foundational philosophy is that every Marine is first and foremost a rifleman, said Col. Scott Cuomo, commanding officer of Training Command’s Weapons Training Battalion.

“So, we started there to make sure that they understood how to integrate” the training — and make every Marine a drone operator.

Let's hope that is a bit of hyperbole because I have concerns about that path. Infantry close with and destroys the enemy. Pushing small drones down too far isn't the way to go right now. Interesting enough, that essay got a lot of hits the day before one Army brigade working on that issue announced it had agreed with my assessment.

But if fire-and-forget small drones become small enough to be launched from infantry 40mm grenade launchers or hang from a soldier's webbing in place of a fragmentation grenade, I think we can say small drones support an infantry role of closing with and destroying the enemy rather than interfere. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Intelligence and Putin's Preparations For War

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction here and see what happens. 

Western allies and Ukraine refused to believe America and Britain who warned them that Russia was determined to invade Ukraine prior to the February 2022 attack. It was too inconvenient and in defiance of common sense and rationality as they defined them to believe our intelligence prediction.

Read the rest here. 

America and Canada Could Learn From Our Allies

The Europeans have Arctic combat training that North Americans don't match. 

Ouch: 

NATO defense officials have confirmed that European allies, led by the United Kingdom and Scandinavian countries, currently carry the primary responsibility for Arctic military operations, as the United States lacks sufficient forces and experience for sustained activity in the High North, according to The Times. ...

Officials said forces from the UK, Norway, Finland, and Sweden are now the alliance’s most prepared units for operations in extreme cold, ice-covered terrain, while U.S. forces remain limited in both equipment and training for the environment.

Our 11th Airborne Division troops in Alaska shouldn't be limited to defending their own heated barracks, eh? Come on, POLARCOM.

And for Canada, that's your territory you apparently suck at protecting.

As for the Europeans, does that superior expertise represent sufficient capabilities for needed missions in case of a war up there? 

We have a lot of work to do if our enemies are serious.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from a related article.

Drone Worship Got A Big Dose of Silver Bullet Fever

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction here and see what happens. 

Small drone purists have a silver bullet fever. And they got the cow bell they crave.

Read the rest here. 

 

The Shadow Alliance Emerges

The European Union is preparing the ground to take over security duties in Europe. Killing NATO and ejecting American influence from Europe is the EU's wet dream.

Oh? 

In 2009, the European Union introduced a mutual defense clause under Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty stating that "if a member state is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other member states shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power."

The article further clarifies that this obligation "shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defense policy of certain member states" — a recognition that countries whose main defense commitments are shaped by NATO.

The EU wants to kill NATO to eject America from Europe and transform into an empire. Article 42.7 is evidence that complementing NATO is not the EU’s goal.

America and Europeans who value liberty should unite to kill the EU. The EU should return to being a free-trade zone.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Hollow NATO Expansion

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction here and see what happens. 

Russia pretended that a weak NATO was a threat to Russia in order to conceal its post-Cold War appeasement of China while Russia rebuilt its decayed post-Cold War military. Appeasement was needed to delay a day of reckoning over Russia’s trophies in the Far East taken from China during weak China’s self-proclaimed Century of Humiliation. Russia’s threats to NATO convinced NATO to rearm. Yet Russia failed to break NATO when it was weakest. Worse, Putin failed to take even smaller Ukraine. And as time drags on with Putin self-immolating Russia’s ground forces, China sees opportunity in the Far East to erase the largest stain remaining from China’s period of weakness.

Read the rest here. 

Objective: IRAN

On Saturday, Israeli and American forces launched an aerial attack on Iran, hitting military targets as well as regime targets. President Trump told the Iranian people to take the opportunity to overthrow the mullahs and free themselves. This seems like a campaign to weaken Iran by tearing up their leadership, conventional capabilities, and nuclear infrastructure; while giving Iranian resistance to the mullahs the opportunity to exploit our ability to kill mullah people and things. We don’t know what the campaign will achieve yet, as I commented early.

Iran has been at war with America ever since the Islamic Revolution, starting with the seizure of the American embassy and continuing to today with terror and hostage-taking for profit. What part of "Death to America"--a.k.a. the "Great Satan"--has been unclear? While America has intermittently fought back, only now is the objective seemingly to crush the mullah regime. Or it is the Iran Punitive Mission?

Mission and Capabilities 

While America (and presumably Israel) would like the Iranian people to defeat the mullahs by exploiting our attacks on the regime, America is seemingly not tying our operations to their success, per the president: 

“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations,” he said. 

We will strike to weaken Iran's government. The Iranian people will win or lose their parallel struggle. And we will end our strikes, hoping the Iranian people will defeat the mullah regime (now or eventually); but accepting a more narrow short-term victory that weakens Iran's military and governing capabilities. We will then wait for future opportunities to remove or neuter the Iranian mullah regime. 

We shall see if an intended short but glorious--or at least a short and useful--air war against the mullah regime pans out. The enemy gets a vote, of course, as I wrote about in this Land Warfare Paper about Iraq's ground invasion of Iran in 1980:

We must not underestimate our potential foes as the Iraqis did in 1980. They will be clever just as we are. They will believe in the cause for which they are fighting. And they, too, will fight to win. We cannot assume that the sight of an American soldier will panic our enemy and induce retreat and surrender in the same manner that Iraq thought the Iranians would collapse when confronted with Iraq's overwhelming invasion force.

There are limits to what an air campaign can achieve on the ground. Air power is great for flying over a land to kill people and break things. It is the modern version of cavalry sweeping through enemy territory burning and slashing their stuff. But while aircraft and missiles may fly over the ground freely in a very successful campaign, they cannot control the ground. 

And as an aside, even sea power (that in this case is supplementing the land-based air power) is limited. The bulk of a sustained air campaign must be done from and sustained from the ground. As our fight against the Barbary pirates revealed, a threat on the ground to the regime inflicts more fear than bombardment and blockade. I wrote about that in Army magazine ... last century.

How I'm so old yet so good looking is a miracle.

But I digress. 

And even a conventional ground campaign is no guarantee of success. Ask the Iraqis about how well there's went in 1980, as I discussed in this even older Land Warfare Paper. There are only limited ground missions that America (or our allies) can do to affect ground control in this campaign. 

Twenty years ago I described all the target sets we need to hit in something that is more than a one-off strike for a narrow target set (like the strikes last summer on Iran's nuclear facilities), and I concluded about that hypothetical strike:

This looks an awful lot like a war and not just a clean airstrike. Which is why my preference is to support internal forces for regime change. Lots, if not most, Iranians hate their government. But my first preference may not be possible. Either from our inability or from the lack of a determined internal opposition ready to fight for their future.

But when the alternative to what I've described is letting Iran go nuclear, a war by any other name is downright ideal.

America and Israel Strike 

Much depends on the ground in Iran. Are the Iranian people willing to fight to remove the mullah boot from their neck? And on the other side, what is the ability of Iranian security assets to remain united and their willingness to kill Iranians? Do we have knowledge of weakness and splits that we can push into the open?

I assume efforts--mostly by Israel--have been made to organize internal opposition, with smuggled Starlink terminals only the most open support; and to disrupt the Revolutionary Guards and explore the willingness of regular Iranian military forces to side with the people against the Revolutionary Guards.

The American attacks in the first 24 hours included command and control, Revolutionary Guard headquarters, air defense systems, ballistic missile sites, Iranian navy ships and submarines, anti-ship missile sites, and communications. These targets made the initial focus on the ability of the Iranians to resist the American and Israeli attacks. The top Iranian, the Ayatollah Khamenei, and numerous others leaders died in air attacks. 

Adding insult to injury, America used its reverse-engineered version of Iran's cheap Shahed suicide drone in the attack. Last December I noted that America sent that LUCAS weapon to CENTCOM. Army surface-to-surface missiles were part of the strikes.

It's early so I don't know what the Israeli targets are. Given past experience, I'd assume they are more focused on Iranian ballistic missile and offensive drone sites; as well as air defenses and command and control. But ISW reports this generally after one day:

The combined US-Israeli force has struck over 2,000 targets in Iran and achieved air superiority over Tehran. The combined force has continued to target Iranian internal security institutions responsible for maintaining stability and suppressing protests, including security forces along Iran’s northwestern borders with Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan.

Combined with the CENTCOM target description, this may suggest the Israelis may have been initially more focused than we were on Iranian internal security capabilities. Perhaps because the Israelis have more communication with dissidents, separatists, and insurrectionists. But I'm speculating. This is interesting in that light:

Specifically, it seems that Israel’s mission was decapitation while Washington’s seemed more bent on destroying offensive missiles and drones.

Six Americans have been killed by Iranian attacks on land-based American troops near Iran; and in a friendly fire incident three American F-15E strike aircraft were shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses. Luckily all six crew ejected and survived (from CENTCOM).

Deconfliction procedures must be tightened up in Kuwait's role in shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at our bases in Kuwait. 

Iran's missile attacks on the territory of neighboring Arab countries has been weak, but enough to stiffen their apparent lukewarm attitude toward taking on Iran in this campaign. Unless their public reticence was either out of caution or for misleading the Iranians. 

President Trump said that any Iranian military or security forces who surrender will not be punished; and that Iranian officials moving into empty leadership slots are willing to talk to him. I assume this is part of an effort to sow confusion in the degraded communications environment and make security forces and leaders wonder if others will cut a deal with America and throw them under the bus.

And America announced that oil traffic out of the Persian Gulf should stop lest the Iranian attack the tankers. 

Since then, the war has continued. ISW is devoting resources to tracking the campaign, which for now is unclear on what it will achieve. Or how effectively Iran can fight. 

Why Now and Why No Broad Coalition of the Willing? 

And in standard operating procedure for many critics of American military action, on the first day of the attacks I began to see people arguing that while of course the Iranian regime is awful and deserves to die, is it really a priority for America when Russia is at war with Ukraine and China is a growing threat?

FFS. We and our allies are containing Russia's invasion of Ukraine; and we and our allies are still building up to stop China from starting or winning a war. I think we can count on allies to hold those lines with a bit less support from America for a while.

Iran is an active threat right now and preventing mullahs from getting nuclear weapons--we don't want a nuclear 9/11--is absolutely the priority right now regardless of the long term problem of China and the ongoing Russia problem. And we do recognize the power that their nuclear weapons give them to constrain our actions, right? We don't want mullah-run Iran to have that power, too, do we? 

Conversely, we did not insist that our allies in Europe and Asia participate in our attacks on Iran. Division of labor is not abandonment of allies. Although Britain, per their prime minister, has stood up with air defense efforts to block Iranian missile attacks in CENTCOM. And later, Britain, France, and Germany signaled support for American military operations to stop Iranian retaliatory strikes.

Too many people making the "Iran is the wrong priority right now" argument effectively support American paralysis by always looking for Mister Good War in the face of a current threat:

[The] war we are in is never as good as the last war we fought or the potential war against the "real" threat we aren't fighting.  

And from a different angle, advice to focus on the strongest threat to the exclusion of any other threat is really saying we should not go for weak points in an enemy alliance--or alignment, as I prefer. I recall that at one time military theorists claimed it was best to go after the strongest section of the enemy defenses on the theory that once you break that, all else will be easy. That was incorrect thinking for reasons I shouldn't have to explain.

But hey, at least that "wrong enemy right now" theory isn't the bizarre defense of the mullah regime all too common in the West from the usual suspects as if Iran is the land of frolicking puppies, kittens, and ducklings. 

The odious Iranian regime has been at war with America since their revolution nearly fifty years ago. What part of "Great Satan" (and "Death to America") has been unclear? As I note in that post, if the mullahs fall many American objectives will be at least a bit less difficult to pursue. 

Waiting For the Outcome to Define the Campaign 

Good hunting to American forces. And let's keep our guard up at home and at bases abroad. You never know when the Iranians will pack civilian shipping containers with missiles or masses of suicide drones to strike far from their shores. Or simple naval mines. Enemies do funny things at war. It's almost like they want to win rather than seek off ramps and finely crafted exit strategies.

It is not clear if this will be the Iranian Counter-Revolution of 2026 or the Iran Punitive Mission of 2026. 

Either could be called a win even if the latter isn't nearly as good as the former that actually ends the long war Iran's mullahs have waged on America, Israel, and Arab states. Think Desert Fox in 1998 under Clinton or the Libya War under Obama.

Problems will flow from instability should the stability of a cemetery that the mullahs provided collapses. Heck, this could be the break up of the rump Persian Empire. But the benefits would be tremendous for cutting this Gordian Knot.

UPDATE (03MAR26): Additional American forces--but apparently not much--are heading to CENTCOM. 

UPDATE (03MAR26): This is fair:

This attack on Iran may be an attempt to consolidate commitments rather than expand them. It may fail. It may deepen instability. But if it succeeds, it could strengthen deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and, in doing so, enhance Australia’s security.

The status quo keeps us distracted. And risks worse if Iran gets nuclear weapons. Success--which could be limited or big depending on internal opposition to the mullahs--could either depress our power needs for a while or reduce our need to contain Iran completely, freeing forces for INDOPACOM.

Although please be careful in the western Pacific. Remember that excess forces in CENTCOM can rapidly redeploy east to INDOPACOM. After dealing with PLA assets in Djibouti and at sea.

UPDATE (03MAR26): Israel has their own front in Lebanon against Hezbollah; while America and Israel have struck Iranian proxy militias in Iraq. 

UPDATE (03MAR26): While critics of the war worry the war will "widen", so far that is comprised exclusively of countries taking our side:

Pakistan has pledged full solidarity with Saudi Arabia and Gulf nations amid escalating West Asia tensions following Israeli strikes on Iran.

UPDATE (03MAR26): China would prefer the Strait of Hormuz to remain open to oil exports. 

And French fighters are now protecting their bases in the UAE.

Finally, I heard that Iran unleashed its pro-Iran fifth column in Shia-majority Bahrain; while Saudi-led GCC forces moved into to support the government that hosts the headquarters of America's Fifth Fleet there. Consider this RUMINT until I see better sources.

UPDATE (04MAR26): Apparently our joint campaign with Israel has suppressed and destroyed Iran's air defenses enough tor Hegseth to announce we would now be able to use virtually unlimited precision gravity bombs to strike Iranian targets rather than expensive and scarce stand-off weapons.

UPDATE (04MAR26): A Pentagon briefing revealed that an American attack submarine sank an Iranian warship using a torpedo. 

UPDATE (04MAR26): Truth be told, I'm skeptical a popular revolt will work, too:

Airstrikes have targeted organizations responsible for suppressing protests and cracking down on separatists; analysts are skeptical the strategy will work[.]

We also need Iran's regular military to join the resistance. And we need to hit, disorganize, frighten, and bribe enough of the Revolutionary Guard to get them mostly out of the way.

And will arming Iranian Kurds be part of a counter-revolution or part of secession? Perhaps to join with Iraq's functionally autonomous (but landlocked) Kurdish region? 

UPDATE (04MAR26): Iran's Assembly of Experts gathered to select a new leader. Israel turned it into the Disassembly of Experts. 

UPDATE (05MAR26): Iran makes new enemies: "NATO assets shot down an Iranian ballistic missile headed for Turkey, alliance officials said Wednesday." 

UPDATE (06MAR26): I heard a Ukrainian YouTuber who I watch say Ukraine should reject America's request for help in defeating Iranian drones. He is a moron when it comes to America under Trump. Does that Ukrainian not understand that Trump wants allies who can help us and not just get our help? He often spouts off in ways that seem designed to split America from Ukraine. Sometimes I wonder if he is really a more subtle Russian information war asset. But truthfully, I suspect he has simply been captured by and reflects the bias of most of his American and European audience. That is no way to support Ukraine.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Basic map image from (obviously) WorldAtlas.com

NOTE: I duplicated this post on Substack. But if I update this going forward, it will be this version. 

The Winter War of 2022 Looks Inward--and Worries

The Russians are seemingly extending more effort to gain control of internal information production and distribution even if it harms military operations against Ukraine. Huh.

The war goes on. I hoped Ukraine might have a strategic reserve to mount a counteroffensive to exploit Russian casualties and communications problems. But on the bright side, they are at least doing what I've long hoped they could achieve as a Plan B--local, sharp counter-attacks against the spearheads of Russian attacks to punish the Russians for pushing forward away from their trenches and support.

Notwithstanding Ukraine's local initiative, Russia continues planning for a spring offensive:

Russian forces have likely begun artillery and drone preparation of the battlefield for the anticipated Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast.

At some point the Ukrainians have to stop trying to advance and start digging in lest their counter-attacks simply make them more exposed to the Russian offensive. 

Well that's interesting:

The Kremlin has been intensifying its efforts in recent weeks to restrict access to Telegram, WhatsApp, and other Western social media platforms, news sites, and internet services as part of broader efforts to regain control over the Russian information space and dismantle the open internet in Russia. The Kremlin has been manufacturing justifications to ban Telegram in order to coerce Russian citizens to abandon other messaging apps for the state-controlled messenger app Max. The Kremlin may use its expanded powers to create an information blackout in the event of a possible mobilization or to further tighten state control over the Russian information space.

The military impact of Russia losing access to its Starlink terminals has been well covered. I don't hear as much now about the impact of restricting Telegram use which Russian troops had adopted for communications. Or is Max working as a substitute for Telegram? If so, it doesn't seem to have coped with the loss of Starlink, too.

The interesting part is why Putin has ordered this despite the impact on his invasion. Is it to block public online expressions of dissent for a future mobilization? Just the fact that Putin is worried about that reaction is significant apart from the need to supplement recruitment with mobilization of civilians for the military's attrition campaign. Putin is not acting like a confident tsar:

The recent intensification of this campaign suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin may not be as confident in his regime’s stability entering the fifth year of his war in Ukraine as he was earlier on.

Why is Putin worried about public dissent now? His regime has coped with that well enough so far. Is Putin really more worried that people in power are unhappy with the war? Might people blame Putin and the war for their growing problems?

With the Ukraine War taking half the government budget, the [Russian] government had to reduce what was usually spent on many items essential for the population. 

Does he worry they could use Telegram and other social media platforms to exploit public online dissent in order to lead a coup under cover of public protest? And to rally support for the coup?

As Austin Bay writes:

I made this recommendation in a March 2022 column: "The best way out of this stupid, murderous war -- for Russians, for Ukrainians, the rest of the world, including greedy oligarchs -- isn't more sanctions or more war. The way out for the oligarchs is a Kremlin coup toppling Putin. The gallows humorists call it a nine-millimeter solution -- a bullet to the insane man's head."

Once we worried a coup could be by a pro-war faction eager to fully wage the war. At this point, is anybody unhappy about Putin really convinced that Putin hasn't warred hard enough? 

Sheer speculation on my part. But this crackdown is different. Why is it different? 

How interesting are these times?

UPDATE (Wednesday): Russia has adapted to their war by designing a lower cost cruise missile. We did the same with the LUCAS drone copied and improved from the Iranian model. This should be a general thing in peacetime just in case. 

UPDATE (Wednesday): Huh:

A Russian LNG gas tanker has sunk in the Mediterranean between Libya and Malta after it was hit by explosions and a fire, Libyan port officials have said.

Russia has accused Ukraine of targeting the Arctic Metagaz with "uncrewed sea drones" launched from the Libyan coast.

Damn shame. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: Image from here.