I Am the State: North Korea Edition

South Korea has planned precision strikes on North Korean leadership in the absence of its own nuclear deterrent to discourage North Korean nuclear weapons strikes. North Korea has established the death of its leadership as a doomsday trigger to unleash its own nuclear weapons. Hilarity ensues?

Huh:

North Korea has updated its constitution to require a retaliatory nuclear strike if leader Kim Jong Un is assassinated, according to a report. ... 

The revised policy outlines procedures for retaliatory action if North Korea’s leadership is incapacitated or killed.

"If the command-and-control system over the state’s nuclear forces is placed in danger by hostile forces’ attacks … a nuclear strike shall be launched automatically and immediately," the updated provision states.

Well, Kim can certainly modify the state's "constitution" as he sees fit. But I'm not sure if he is thinking this through. 

South Korea has planned to deter North Korea's nukes with precision conventional weapons able to go directly for North Korea's leadership--like Kim. 

And there are even indications that should the North Korean state collapse, special ground units would attempt to secure North Korea's nuclear weapons.

But if North Korea will unleash its nukes during the time between losing their leadership and state collapse, South Korea's non-nuclear plans have a serious flaw. 

So what is the under-and-over on how many years before South Korea has nuclear missiles?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo that I turned into a meme from the initial article.

Lethality is Not a Larger Kill Count

Lethality is not only the ability to kill and break things. It is the ability to use killing to break the enemy.

This cannot be said enough:

A lethal unit applies violence that shatters an enemy’s will to fight. It does so with skill, tempo, and aggression that discourages an adversary from standing before it. Lethality is a fusion of advanced technology, rigorous training, and, most critically, a hardened, aggressive, and offensive mindset embedded in organizational culture.

Killing soldiers and breaking their things for the sake of killing and breaking in greater volume is not the key to victory. That just leads to a high-tech, high-tempo clash of phalanxes.

Firepower is one part of an expanded combined arms battle to restore maneuver--and that's where tanks come in with their mobile, protected firepower--by breaking the enemy's will and capability to fight at the point of attack is what is important:

Tanks are not made obsolete by a more transparent battlefield. The impact of tanks is amplified by secure information that surpasses what the enemy has. But tanks are just one more wonder weapon to be slaughtered if not used in combined operations in the right circumstances and at the right time and place. 

Yet I strongly disagree about the "transparent" battlefield angle. Do we have more ways to see the battlefield? Yes. But there will be countermeasures, in time. Ultimately, surprise is created in the mind of the enemy commander. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Blather, Wince, Repeat.

Belief in communism (which is just the magical end state of socialism, remember) is stronger than most religious faiths. No failure discourages the useful idiots.

Useful idiots are a determined bunch: 

While ruthless in their practice of massive violence against civilian populations, Mao and his henchmen succeeded in duping Western sympathizers into viewing them as liberal democrats and reformers, much as Stalin persuaded influential Americans in the 1930s that Communists were just "liberals in a hurry."

When the crash of expectations arrives and denying failure becomes too much even for them to maintain, the refrain of "It wasn't real socialism!" erupts. Thus begins the new search for the Great Red Hope that will be embraced. Until failure requires another cycle.

Blather, wince, repeat. 

Useful idiots never learn. And cause America repeated foreign policy problems to win the same argument again and again against a new generation of true believers with no sense of history.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. Forgive my raging Ogrephobia to make a point.

Russia Teaches China How Russia's Army Fights. Wait. What?

China is learning from Russia's combat experience. And I'm supposed to believe Taiwan should be the most worried?

This conclusion from Russia's exercises with China about improved cooperation amuses me:

The existing set of military exercises provides the PLA with access to wartime lessons drawn from Russian campaigns in the North Caucasus, Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine, particularly in the deployment and manoeuvre of large-scale combat forces in expeditionary operations. These exercises also enhance interoperability with the Russian military in terms of operational processes, as well as familiarity with (mainly Soviet-origin) equipment that has demonstrated battlefield effectiveness.

It sounds like Russia is teaching China how Russia fights and how Russian equipment works.

But no cause for alarm! Russia and China are best buddies, with Russia supporting Chinese territorial claims against Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Xianjang; while China takes no position on Russian claims in the west.

And that is proof of close relations ... how?

I mean, China doesn't recognize Russia's claims. And Russia limits itself to endorsing specific Chinese claims. No general rule implied! Guess what territory is part of what China doesn't recognize and what Russia doesn't endorse?

That would be Russia's Far East taken from China in the 19th century.

It's bad enough Russia exposed its military as less than great. There is no way Russia should be letting China see Russia's military up close, lest China see Russia as a better target than frenemy.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Oh Those Inscrutable Chinese!

Does the Chinese Communist Party just expect its military to loom menacingly in a long-term effort to convince the Taiwanese to surrender to China?

China's plan is to watch and collect its victory when it arrives?

China wants to unify with Taiwan at the lowest possible cost, and it currently believes that unification will become easier and less costly as time passes. As China develops the military and economic capabilities to deter U.S. intervention to defend Taiwan, it believes that it can compel the island into capitulation without necessarily needing a full-scale invasion. And in the meantime, Beijing is confident that it can prevent Taiwan from trying to become formally independent.

I'll just skip past the possibility that China wishes to appear far when near.

But while I can accept that the Chinese are being patient in the best light, they might also simply be losing their effort to be able to take China by force or by persuasion/threat.

And claiming the Chinese are "playing a long game on Taiwan" drifts dangerously into a view that the Chinese have unique long-range planning abilities. I think that view is bunk:

Chinese rulers unable to think about the long term and simply focused on the short run? Say it ain't so! The culture! The history! The vaguely worded fortune cookie pronouncements! Patience and perspective are in their effing genes, aren't they?

Apparently not.

The Chinese are people, like anyone else. What a radical idea.

All we know is that China hasn't absorbed Taiwan despite it being a long-held core interest. I have no idea if we are entering a danger zone (the Davidson Window) when China is finally prepared to invade Taiwan but before America and our allies have responded to block China. But I seriously doubt China is playing a clever long game. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Gives Its Failure a Wonderful New Set of Clothes

What is the Russian government preparing for during this fifth year of the three-week special military operation? Does the Russian government believe it is safer to turn the disinformation dial to 11 and risk a fight against its own people rather than continue to fight NATO-backed Ukraine?

I almost don't care if this is real:

A top-level Kremlin policy document discussing post-war political planning and how to neutralize potential ultranationalist discontent has been leaked to the Russian investigative site Dossier Center. Entitled “Images of Victory,” the paper gives a rare insight into the inner workings of Russia’s political machine. Crucially, it shows that while the Kremlin remains officially indifferent to peace talks, behind the scenes apparatchiks are working hard on selling an inevitable stalemate to the Russian people by dressing it up as a species of victory. The document was leaked before President Trump’s announcement today of a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

While the source of the leaked document is unknown, its tone and content seem entirely plausible and its authenticity has not been challenged by the Kremlin even though Dossier is funded by exiled London-based oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Significantly, the paper warns that continuing the war carries serious dangers for Russia’s economy and society. But in practical terms the policy paper’s focus is how to construct a post-war narrative of why the war was worth it, as well as how to systematically dismantle all potential areas of dissent, first and foremost from a constituency it describes as “armchair patriots.”

The Sad parade to commemorate the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945 reminds Russians that Russia has been fighting small Ukraine for more time than it took to defeat actual Nazis. And with far less to show for it. 

Indeed, it may tarnish the Great Patriotic War by raising the possibility that the only reason the USSR won in 1945 was the extensive Allied support for Soviet industry and military power. With Western power helping Ukraine instead, Russia has floundered. Perhaps not a coincidence, eh?

Just publicly raising the issue of declaring victory and ending the war bolsters those inside Russia who can plainly see the tsar has no victory. That may cause dissent to rise to opposition. And the document could be real given the apparent shift in fortunes to Ukraine (which even before this shift has blunted and slowed Russia's invasion for over five years). It would explain Putin's possible fear of demobilizing his military after the war--whenever and however that happens. 

At the very least, the signs of Russia wobbling in its determination to win at all costs seem to be rising. But until the signs really accelerate, the war goes on. Ukraine seems to have gained edges in both the strategic air war and the ground war. Will that trend reverse, continue, or accelerate?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I found the picture on the web with no attribution. I carry forth that lack of information. 

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Why Yes, Tanks Are Nice To Have Around

In case you missed it on Substack: The Future is Clear

In case you missed it on Substack: Drone Dive Bombers!

In case you missed it on Substack: Sea Control Goes Berserker

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

The New Army Air Corps

Army companies will get autonomous drones to support them in combat with ISR, targeting, and logistics. Add air defense and we're good to go.

This autonomous drone is good:

The U.S. Army has selected a new small unmanned aircraft system to push aerial capability down to the company level. Army Contracting Command awarded the contract to Mistral Inc. for the THOR Group 2 UAS, a backpack-portable multi-rotor drone designed for frontline units.

This type of drone adds to the company's ability to close with and destroy the enemy rather than distract the company and tempt it to become a mini-air force. 

Add fighter drones that shoot down enemy drones, as I asked for in this Army article, and we're good to go. An autonomous combat air patrol fighter drone over the company would be great.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article.