Iran Reassures the World That All Is Well

I don't believe the Iranians have agreed to end their nuclear or regional ambitions. At best this is a short-term measure to buy time. Iran is still at war with us. Let's not become confused. But we had a difficult environment for negotiations. Assessments of the war have relied on a highly unbalanced Western media portrayal of Iran's resilience after the brief air campaign and the subsequent blockade that smashed up and squeezed Iran's military and economy, as well as its defense and nuclear industries. 

We have an understanding for an eventual deal. In memo form. Allegedly. It was difficult for America to hold firm for a better outcome because of the information environment.

Yes: 

What comes out of Iran is the chronic form of lying associated with 'Baghdad Bob" during the Second Gulf War. No one yet knows the full extent of the damage to the regime or the viability of the Iranian resistance. The result is that Iran is likely to be in far worse shape than it lets on.

I have trouble drawing more than the broadest conclusion about the war: that Iran has been severely hammered. What that means is unclear. This is a problem, as Kipling wrote:

Man cannot tell but Allah knows
How much the other side is hurt. 

In contrast to the veil over Iran's problems, we have yet another story about how Iran hit American bases in CENTCOM harder than we admitted. Yes, drone defense was a weakness we did not prepare sufficiently to overcome. We certainly anticipated the problem. Stuff happens. Yet the damage didn’t stop America and its allies from hitting more than 13,000 Iranian targets. Also, why would we conduct Iranian damage assessment in the media during the campaign by admitting the damage?

Yet we allegedly have peace for our time. We'll see what the text shows. It couldn't possibly be worse than the first one, right? Right? 

Iran will not meet our expectations. I suspect this memo of purported mutual understanding is only an effort to buy time until after the November elections and so America and its allies can build up the evidence to justify more action to finally defeat the mullah regime of Iran. That's the domestic political reality.

But what else could we do? Let Iran race to nuclear weapons? The Iranian people and regular armed forces did not take the opportunity to rise up when we and Israel struck hard. Perhaps it would have been doomed. But everybody knew we were going to hammer Iran and give the Iranians a chance to rise up. We did that. For now.

On the bright side, assessments of rebuilding needs that the proto-deal addresses may provide us with needed damage assessment for future bombing. 

UPDATE: Hard to argue with this:

Three nations are involved in this war: the United States, Iran and Israel. The negotiations during the ceasefire will be heavily influenced by internal politics, with each nation having internal divisions, all of different natures and pointing in different directions. 

Whose divisions are worse? And with the memorandum of understanding not yet revealed, all we can say for sure is that it opens up the Strait of Hormuz to all parties. 

Everybody is seemingly buying time to better prepare for the next round of war. Whether that is in two months, five months, or at some point farther in the future is unclear. But Hell, maybe the horse will sing. It didn't the last time I had that hope. But who knows? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Wonders if Putin--Or Russia--Survives

Russia has growing problems rising from its failed war to conquer Ukraine. Logistics are the least of them.

 

The war goes on. Russia's offensive seems to have contracted to the effort to take the Ukrainian city of Kostyantynivka. This isn't Stalin's Red Army anymore. In the strategic air war, Ukraine focuses on military logistics and is affecting the Russians from the front to the Russian defense industrial base and fuel production/export.

I've read and seen more reports that Ukraine is succeeding in cutting off Crimea from supplies. I refrain from concluding this will truly isolate the Russians--as opposed to adding to Russian logistics difficulties--given what I read about American interdiction in the Korean War against railroad lines. Apparently, the North Koreans/Chinese only needed 5% of capacity to keep enough supplies flowing to their troops.* Still, I can see a politically devastating (for Putin) image of Russian civilians heading east across the Kerch Strait Bridge and becoming refugees to escape the impact of Russia prioritizing their security forces for the supplies that make it by road, rail, sea, and air.

And while that reality means Ukraine has at least survived due to its sacrifices, Russia stepped on multiple rakes:

Russia is currently entering a new Time of Troubles, similar to the fifteen years of chaos in Russia 500 years ago. The current version is similar in that the major supporters of Vladimir Puttin and the war in Ukraine have started backing away from the war. Public opinion is increasingly against the war and hostile to allowing their sons and brothers to be recruited into the army to die uselessly. Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s assistants, advisors and staff are hiding or downplaying what is actually happening with the economy plus, in the Ukraine war, the growing Ukrainian victories and the plummeting morale of Russian soldiers.

I've certainly wondered about that outcome as the price Russia might pay.

Will the collapse of the Russian army be the trigger? Or an effect of disorder at home? Or will the clusterf**k be so densely packed that it is hard to tell cause from effect? 

Is this the first act of the Time of Troubles?

The Russian military command is reportedly withdrawing forces from the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine is rendering defenses in the area increasingly untenable.

I'll be watching this long-quiet part of the front. Will exposure at the front and growing supply problems lead to more withdrawals?

The Russian military command reportedly prohibited military cargo traffic along Russia’s main highway connecting mainland Russia to Crimea due to Ukrainian strikes. 

And I wonder if it gets much, much worse for Russia. 

So far Putin retains enough popular support for him if not for Russia's deteriorating conditions and loss of life. But "if only the tsar knew!" won't protect Putin for long. 

Is it too late for Putin to save himself and perhaps Russia itself with a radical move that recognizes the true threat to Russia? Because if Russia enters a Time of Troubles, China will pounce.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

*That figure is my memory of it. Might be different. But the effect of whatever percentage I read was that not much capacity was needed, making our interdiction effort difficult. Have things changed? Is Ukraine more than 95% effective?

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: DRONEDASH

In case you missed it on Substack: Buying Diego Garcia

In case you missed it on Substack: The Clue Bat Strikes a Blow!

In case you missed it on Substack: Victory Through Air Power and the Pause That Refreshes

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section. 

Removing What Is Unneeded

I don't think the American removal of air and naval assets is a problem for defending European NATO. But they could be significant for INDOPACOM and CENTCOM, where Europeans are thin on the ground.

Details about the reduction of American contributions to the NATO Force Model are coming out:

The U.S. intends to significantly reduce military contributions available to assist European allies in a crisis, including fighter jets, warships and mid-air refueling aircraft, German news outlet Spiegel reported on Tuesday. Specifically, half the number of strategic bombers, a third of the fighter planes, fewer destroyers, and no submarines. 

The NATO Force Plan looks good on paper with raw numbers of troops, but it overwhelmingly consists of air and naval power in the early months of mobilization. Honestly, Russia's naval power is a joke that Europeans can crush. And Russia simply doesn't prioritize air superiority. American and European air power can handle the Russians.

What is needed these days is European ground-based air defense for mass missile and drone attacks.

And as I mentioned in the Substack post at the start, American forces not earmarked for NATO could still be committed there. What America has now is more flexibility for global threats. Because Europeans have to care about Europe more than America does now.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the quoted article.

To Be, Or Not To Be

I've long worried--since 2003--that attack helicopters are running out of room to be effective on the battlefield for deep strike because of greatly improved ground-based air defense weapons. One means of overcoming that threat is increasing the range of helicopter weapons. We have turned that dial to 11.

Huh:

Weapons manufacturer Anduril developed a new drone weapon for the Apache attack helicopter in only six months. This weapon was tested when an AH-64 launched this drone for the first time. It flew 457 kilometers and had an impact similar to a Hellfire missile.

That's great for existing helicopters. And we already started down that path. I suspect this much effort is made because for the Army, when you can't be with the one you love, love the one you are with.

But in the long run, why can't cheap trucks carry that Anduril weapon? Or other weapons.

Still, despite my worry I accept that counter-measures plus different weapons and tactics could preserve the helicopter's role. But is the cost worth the result?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Ah Yes, I Remember It Well

Europeans need to defeat Russia's invasion of Ukraine to protect themselves. But beware a failure to repeat the smooth victory over Hitler in 1945 and transition to peace with victor and vanquished clear? Are we talking about the same era?

Apparently, defeating Russia's war to conquer Ukraine won't be as clear as the end of World War II when the guns fall silent:

Yet it won’t be over even when it’s over. Unlike on VE Day 1945, we won’t know who has won at the moment the shooting stops. The arrival of “peace”—most likely in the form of a ceasefire that becomes a longer-lasting freezing of hostilities along the current frontline—will be another moment of danger for Ukraine. Internally, all the social differences and traumas accumulated in years of war could explode in an angry presidential election campaign and highly divisive subsequent politics.

An angry election campaign, eh? The horror.

So very sad that the clarity of victory and smooth transition to peace after World War II won't be repeated:

Imagine a world without institutions. it is a world where borders between countries seem to have dissolved, leaving a single, endless landscape over which people travel in search of communities that no longer exist. ...

Nothing is made here: the great factories and businesses that used to exist have all been destroyed or dismantled, as have most of the other buildings. There ar no tools, save what can be dug out of the rubble. There is no food.

Law and order are virtually non-existent, because there is no police force and no judiciary. In some areas there no longer seems to be any clear sense of what is right and what is wrong. People help themselves to whatever they want without regard to ownership--indeed, the sense of ownership itself has largely disappeared.

Oh. 

That was the reality of the "clarity" of winning World War II that led to internal chaos and shifted right into the Cold War--avoiding this path! 

Be careful what you wish for.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

More Complicated Drones Needed

Russia redirects Ukrainian long-range strike drones into NATO countries.

Live by the sword, die by the sword: 

[They thought they were under aerial attack, but] drones buzzing over Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Finland were not launched by an enemy: they were Ukrainian drones hijacked and redirected by Russia towards Nato, opening up a new phase of war.

Clever of the Russians. 

And now Ukraine's cheap long-range strike drones will need to add counter-measures to prevent that, making them more expensive. Pretty soon as the race to attack and protect such drones continues, they won't be so cheap and maybe not so numerous.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: "Missed it by that much" for those unfamiliar with Agent 86.

Shiny Objects and Ninja War

A round of shooting between Iran and Israel obscures the real war being waged quietly to defeat the Iranian mullah regime.

America continues to squeeze the mullah regime in Iran: 

On June 2, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) tightened its controls on Iranian dark-fleet activities by designating Iran's leading crypto trader, Nobitex, and the three next largest firms (Wallex, Bitpin and Ramzinex) operating in Iran. The move will not only complicate Iranian attempts to conduct financial transactions for its dark-fleet oil-trading activities, but also make it harder for the Iranian authorities to receive payments from shipowners seeking to use Iranian channels to enter and leave the Gulf using the so-called Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA).

Iran struck Israel with ballistic missiles and Israel has struck back, providing the shiny kinetic object to distract everybody:

US President Donald Trump earlier on Monday told both Iran and key ally Israel to stop fighting, against the background of reports of an increasingly testy relationship between the US leader and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Iran fired dozens of missiles at Israel overnight and Israel responded by targeting military sites in the Islamic republic, sparking fears the escalation could usher in a new full-scale conflict after the April 8 truce.

Trump can act as the "good cop" to Israel's "bad cop" because the blockade of Iran is the main effort to defeat Iran after the air campaign crippled Iran's military capabilities. And it is biting:

The Islamic Republic of Iran suffered a devastating blow in May, with the American blockade and sanctions biting deep into the regime’s bottom line. 

Sure, Iran acts like it is winning. Why wouldn't it? What else can they do? And we might fall for it and hand them victory! Yet the clock is ticking for Iran in more ways in the financial war:

The Treasury Department will use Iranian assets to help U.S. Gulf allies recover from damage caused by Tehran's regime during the Iran war[.]

My hunch is that America resumes large-scale strikes on Iran only if it looks like the regime might fall to internal resistance, including the Iranian army. I wonder how that Israeli operation is going?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!