The Winter War of 2022 Adjusts to America’s Elections

 

Russia has decided to try to break the Ukrainian people rather than break the Ukrainian ground forces. This change in strategy coincides with America’s mid-term elections that led to Democrats controlling Congress (starting early next year). This this could lead to greater open support for Ukraine. Or just more angry talk about Putin. We shall see if it wrecks a chance to “flip” Russia into a frenemy alliance against China, which poses a threat to both America and Russia. Or maybe Putin thinks he is now on deadline to either win the war or cut a deal with Trump while he can. The Russian winter aerial blitz on Ukraine’s civilians may be the campaign that decides which way Putin—or his sudden successor—goes.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Fighting Under an Enemy Microscope

In case you missed it on Substack: The Proto-EABO Battle of Wake Island

In case you missed it on Substack: Punching Through the Reconnaissance Strike Complex

In case you missed it on Substack: American Support for the Defense of Ukraine

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

The FPV Suicide Drone-Artillery Convergence

I have viewed FPV suicide drones as a form of artillery. The branches are converging.

The Army and the manufacturer conducted a significant live fire test for the HIMARS rocket:

A GMLRS rocket normally follows a programmed trajectory using satellite-assisted inertial guidance, making it effective against fixed positions but less suited to targets that relocate during flight. Introducing an external targeting update creates another engagement option without requiring the launcher to fire a replacement rocket.

In a statement published on October 28, 2026, Lockheed Martin confirmed that the demonstration involved launching a GMLRS rocket from an M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), followed by an in-flight target update transmitted through the Strigo datalink and Remote Interceptor Guidance-360 (RIG-360) system. The rocket successfully changed its target assignment and destroyed the moving objective. 

I think FPV suicide drones are simply a form of artillery. 

As artillery converges with FPV suicide drone capabilities, will it make sense to emphasize FPV suicide drones?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. Also, I have a small amount of Lockheed Martin stock. 

Apres le Mauvais Homme Orange, le Deluge

The budding romance between Canada and the European Union will not last the end of the Trump presidency. The two use each other to tweak the Bad Orange Man. But their visions of what they want overlap nowhere else. Face it, they are friends with temporary political benefits.

While Canada needs close defense and economic ties with America, Canada wants a little room to maneuver alongside other sovereign middle powers. And defying the Bad Orange Man is good politics for Prime Minister Carney. 

The European Union resents America--regardless of who is president--for being a speed bump on the EU path to stripping away the prefix of their proto-imperial entity. Tweaking Trump by romancing Canada is using Canada as cannon fodder to achieve an ever closer union in Europe. And the hot European chick might just be a bloc tease:

The EU has backed away from its offer to Canada to start talks on becoming an "associate member" after disagreements between member states just as an EU-Canada summit was set to begin in Montreal.

So don't expect too much from this new relationship:

Canada’s prime minister wants to help build a new world order that can counterbalance the power of the United States and China. But his vision depends on a new relationship with a Europe that doesn’t see itself as a middle power at all. 

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has a different vision: a Brussels-centered bloc that extends the EU’s economic and geopolitical influence, starting with Canada. 

Unless Canada decides it doesn't mind being the "51st state" of the EU. But until their ugly breakup, they'll always have a magical honeymoon in Montreal.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

Holding the Line in the First Island Chain

There are strategic and military risks operating forward in the First Island Chain close to China's military power. But there are strategic risks of standing off.

This is correct about America's military strength in the First Island Chain of the western Pacific:

The United States will never be able to peer inside of Xi’s head, but he must know that gambling on conflict in the Pacific could earn his place in history as the unifier of China or risk defeat, his legacy, and the stability of the Chinese Communist Party regime. Will he be more likely to take that wager with the presence or absence of forward-postured US forces? History points to the answer. The United States demonstrating a strong hand in the first island chain will help Xi recognize that war is a bad bet.

Yet forward-deployed forces on the first island line are vulnerable. But allies left on their own at the first island chain may wobble.

So it is a delicate balance between deterring with presence; preserving forces with distance; considering whether China is tempted to attack or is deterred; and reassuring or frightening our allies along the first island chain line.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from Taipei Times.

Clouding Up the Transparent Battlefield

The battlefield is transparent. Until friendly "deception, concealment, dispersion, and aggressive counter-reconnaissance" deny the enemy that transparency. 

How the Army Fights includes this "key point:"

Battlefield transparency is not fixed. It is a relative advantage gained when one force builds understanding and acts effectively while denying its adversary the ability to do the same.

Preaching to the TDR choir, the Army is (quoting an earlier essay):

The key isn’t remaining unseen. The key is remaining unseen long enough to move quickly enough and outpace the enemy’s ability to react. Those are factors relative to the enemy and not absolute aspects of operating. Increased surveillance and communications will not change the relative advantage combatants seek.

Work the problem. As the quoted part of the introduction taken from the Army document states.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

More Meat on the BONE

The Air Force must help hold the line in the Western Pacific until the Navy is restored. 

The B-1 bomber will be updated to fly through the 2040s with a greater bomb load and the ability to fire hypersonic weapons:

In recent years, the Air Force has also reconfigured the B-1B weapons bay to carry more weapons, increasing the B-1B’s magazine capacity from 24 weapons internally, all the way up to 40. The adjustments to the bomb bay will also enable the B-1B to carry hypersonic weapons, something which greatly increases the aircraft’s lethality.  The bomb bay itself has been massively reconfigured in anticipation of weapons which have yet to exist. 

This will be useful in PACOM.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Pretends It is January 2022

 

The fighting continues with Ukrainians seemingly (slightly) dominant on the ground; and with each side escalating air attacks on the other side’s homeland. Are negotiations just the information arm of the violent side of the war? Or is Russia feigning dominance even as it is eager to end the folly of its invasion before really bad things happen. The war seems in the balance. And I’m not sure which side of the knife’s edge the outcome falls on. Or when that might happen.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.