The Peter Principle at an Imperial Level

Is the European Union (EU) on a suicidal foreign policy path? Maybe. But the purpose is to gain domestic powers to erase the prefix of their proto-imperial project. Only the peasants will pay the price. And they'll damn well suffer in silence for holy ever closer union

That is an impressive record:

While the trajectory of EU diplomacy was a train wreck long before Kallas failed upward, few would argue that it hasn’t been a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad 14 months for the Union’s foreign affairs since she assumed her role. Incredibly, the EU now finds itself at loggerheads with essentially every major power in the world, drifting through the global game of geopolitics with no strategy, failing economies, deep resentment at home, and shaky access to crucial energy supplies from abroad.

I don't think this is a disaster from the EU's perspective:

Remember, the EU doesn't care about solving any particular problem. The EU just wants the authority to address the problem, as I noted before Russia invaded Ukraine (again). Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Empire[.]

That pictured EU troika dreams of a foreign policy success like the Soviet Russia achievement in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. The power to negotiate is more important to the EU than the provisions of any deal. That's the strategy. Who in Brussels cares how it affects the peasantry?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Image from the essay. 

Desperately Seeking a Short War Over Taiwan

America counts on a short war if China invades Taiwan. So does China. We should be careful what we wish for. 

America and China, for their own reasons, want a short but victorious war over Taiwan*:

Considering these factors, planning for a short, sharp war provides a baseline that reflects current political considerations and what both parties would likely attempt to achieve. However, an exclusive focus on such a scenario risks overlooking how quickly a conflict can expand, protract, or shift. 

Yes, enemies vote and sh*t happens. Which makes getting a short war the hard part. 

China can throw an army across the Taiwan Strait. And I worry that China could exploit the mutual need for a short war to get a victory that America won't even recognize, as I warned about in Military Review.

*And wow! The article had a picture of old Army M60A2 tanks with 155mm ATGM-firing guns! Don't know why. But neat.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Repairing the Foundation of Global Power

Allies and enemies are used to America manning the front lines in Eurasia in force, as it did throughout the Cold War and into the Russian Decline Era.* Pulling back to a reserve role is mistakenly viewed as retreat.

This is an accurate description of the 2025 national security strategy' emphasis on protecting America in the Western Hemisphere: 

In this framework, the American homeland is the center point. The first and most immediate line of security is the border. The second is the regional periphery-the Caribbean and Latin America. Only after these inner circles are secured, the logic goes, can the United States effectively project power more globally. 

Exactly:

The strategy seeks a firmer economic and military foundation of American power in the Western Hemisphere. The Western Hemisphere is the geographic foundation (defined more broadly) of operating abroad. While the strategy hopes to use non-military means as the main effort for national security, it does not disarm America in the belief that military power is unnecessary. Recall America’s Ten Year Rule as a warning about that approach.

I think the strategy is broad enough in scope to allow for a larger overseas military mission if all else fails. But this isn’t dogma. Circumstances can lead America to abandon this rule book and rewrite it on the fly.

America isn't retreating. America is reloading. Which includes making sure America has the bullets to finish the job.

*The Russian Decline Era. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Losing Iraq's Western Shield

Iraq is losing its western shield to prevent Sunni jihadi infiltration.

ISW writes that the Kurds of Syria are going down to defeat against the Islamist Syrian government, and there are repercussions for America:

The United States’ framework for sustaining success against the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in northeastern Syria is collapsing. The risk that fighting in the northeast will significantly imperil the US mission to combat ISIS remains high unless negotiations or Kurdish operations can slow the pace of government advance towards Kurdish-majority areas.

There could be a Kurdish insurgency and the Kurds could face violence as they have so often in the region. Perhaps the Turkish, Iraqi, and Iranian Kurds get back in the secession game. 

Iraq is concerned:

Iraqi government officials remain concerned that instability in Syria will cause the threat of ISIS to spill over into Iraq.

Iraq got its wish for all American forces to leave Iraq (except for the Kurdish region). It got that wish in 2011, too. What happens to Iraq's fragile democratic structure if it faces another Sunni Islamist invasion as it did during the Iraq War (Syria ratlines) and more overtly during the rise of ISIL (ISIS) in 2014?

The Kurdish-led SDF and America's small presence (along with some allies) in eastern Syria provided a shield to keep jihadis from again infiltrating Iraq to wreak havoc. And if Iran's mullahs don't go down, the mullahs will be in a better position to take over Shia-majority Iraq from the inside. 

And now leaving Syria is on the table again. Also, the U.S. had to race to begin transferring jihadis from SDF prisons to Iraqi prisons. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Map with my crude edits from Brookings.

Shield and Sword

All the smart kids want Taiwan to wage an asymmetric battle with lots of cheap air and sea drones to defeat a Chinese invasion. What if China nullifies the drones long enough to get a bridgehead?

China--like a lot of other countries are, including America--is working on microwave weapons to knock out drones on a large scale:

China has revealed new details about a high power microwave weapon it says can disable drone swarms at distances beyond those claimed by comparable US systems.

The truck mounted system, known as the Hurricane 3000, is designed to destroy or shut down drones by frying onboard electronics with focused microwave energy.

That would take a lot of the panties out of the flinging, no? 

What if China mounted a lot of those on lots of modularized auxiliary cruisers --in addition to other versions shielding the invasion fleet--to disable all those magical drones during the invasion of Taiwan?

People note that adaptation in the drone war in the Winter War of 2022 takes place in weeks. But if China strikes while it has an edge, that might be enough time for China to entrench on Taiwan and persuade America to accept a ceasefire rather than risk war with a nuclear-armed China sitting on the defensive close to its shores; or risk our economy in a long war of blockade and loss of trade. 

That ceasefire would allow China to prepare the final conquest in a subsequent war, as I argued in Military Review. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Image from article. 

The Winter War of 2022 Nears Its 'Use By' Date?

Russia's economy is hurting. But Russia has muddled through with an ability to endure deteriorating economic conditions. Predictions of collapse have passed repeatedly. Is a bill in Congress a "this time for sure" moment?

The war goes on. Starlink seems to have closed the gap that allowed Russia to control its drones deeper into Ukrainian territory. And  CSIS has new estimates on the casualties that both sides have endured:

Russia suffered 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 troop deaths, between the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 and December 2025. ... 

It estimated that Ukraine, with its smaller army and population, had suffered between 500,000 to 600,000 casualties, including up to 140,000 deaths. 

I keep worrying that if Russia could form a reserve of a fully equipped and acceptably trained combined arms army that Russia could charge through Ukraine's thinly manned drone belt on a fifteen mile front. It would be costly but would push through the kill zone with enough to break through and roll up the flanks. In the long run it would be cheaper. So far Russia appears incapable of that kind of discipline, preferring constant pressure along multiple points of the front line. 

But is this a kill shot?

The most significant development of 2026 isn't a new missile system; it’s a tariff. The Graham-Trump Bill, greenlit by the White House on January 7, has fundamentally rewritten the rules of economic warfare. By threatening a mandatory 500% tariff on any country—including China and India—that continues to purchase Russian petroleum or uranium, the U.S. has finally weaponized the one thing Russia’s allies value more than cheap crude: access to the American consumer.

Will this work? Could Russia's war effort sputter to crawl? Will Putin finally take Trump's offer to end the war as a last chance to declare victory in the special military operation gone horribly awry?

Or maybe this is just another "best by" deadline that Russia will continue to muddle through.

UPDATE (Tuesday): The heavy price Russia has paid for its failed invasion ... so far. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): I've long noted that sanctions fail be a decisive "silver bullet" weapon absent other pressure factors. And RUSI is clearly not on the side of another form of economic pain being decisive on its own:

Wars are rarely abandoned because they become expensive. They are more often terminated when states are defeated militarily, when ruling coalitions fracture, or when regimes themselves collapse. Economic pressure, where it matters, tends to operate through these channels rather than through persuasion alone. 

On its own is the key part of the judgment. Other factors that can be a spark for defeat can be exacerbated by underlying economic pain. Which leaves open the possibility that there is a 'use by' date for Russia's invasion.

Ukraine has been forced to pay a heavy price, too, for the choice of not wanting to be conquered by the brutal Russians.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. 

Weekend Data Dump

I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Distributed Artillery

In case you missed it on Substack: The Russian-Chinese Arctic Front

In case you missed it on Substack: Could Ukraine Wage Commerce Raiding Against Russia?

In case you missed it on Substack: Europeans Had a Nice Run

This would be unnecessary if Hamas disarmed: “Israel continues to back Gazan militias over the Yellow Line to fight Hamas in areas under the terrorist group’s control[.]” The war isn’t over. It’s just different.

The Crow electronic warfare system: “A Spanish fighter wing deployed to the Baltics for air patrol missions alongside anti-drone defenses for the first time[.]”

War: “A failed December effort to bring down parts of Poland’s energy grid was the work of Russian government hackers[.]”

Offered with no comment: “Germany and Italy are set to expand defence and economic cooperation[.]”

Oh, forgot to link the new 2026 national defense strategy. I’ll eventually write about it.

Yes, many allies (mostly Britain and Canada) bled at America’s side in Afghanistan. Also true is most NATO countries didn’t let their troops fight—but they performed needed duties. And, until last year, NATO countries were mad that America chose to lose that war. Via Instapundit.

The goal of avoiding another Task Force Smith in the Army’s first battle is strong. But don’t forget winning the rest of the war if it drags on.

Well that’s boring: “A recent $610 million order placed by Denmark for air surveillance radars to be stationed across Danish territory was sole-sourced to U.S. defense giant Lockheed Martin[.]”

Well: “NATO is ready to engage in a potential Arctic mission, but hasn’t started planning one as there has been no political guidance to do so[.]” Having an American POLARCOM would help.

Huh: “Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is convening a rare meeting of all of the top military leaders from the 34 countries in the Western Hemisphere.”

Pity it was discovered—unless we set him up for a fall: “China’s senior-most general is accused of leaking information about the country’s nuclear-weapons program to the U.S. and accepting bribes for official acts[.]”

Ukrainian suicide drone operators are now hitting Russian infantry at ranges short enough for heavy weapons direct fire. That’s a problem with a porous front line.

Fifteen years after NATO conducted a drive-by shooting of Libya’s dictator, Khadaffi, after which America stayed out because Iraq and Afghanistan “proved” America’s presence prevented locals from working out their problems, different foreigners maintain the chaos in Libya.

Russia’s military was never very good and is getting torn apart further regardless of what lessons it is learning to keep invading Ukraine.

The Air Force announced ““Air Expeditionary Wing 2.0.”

Is NORAD-Plus needed for multiple threats coming south through the Arctic? A U.S. POLARCOM could handle fighting in the Arctic.

Iran issued a warning order to the Houthi should America attack Iran.

China’s threat to the Arctic. Which seems futile given the need to go past the G-I-UK Gap or Bering Strait to use the region—unless China owns or dominates huge chunks of Russia from their border to the Arctic Sea. Or is it all about striking America?

I don’t mock China for military purges. I worry purges will ultimately make China’s military more effective. Fingers crossed it just provides new corrupt leadership.

Didn’t realize Russians were still there: “Russia is withdrawing forces from an airport in northeastern Syria[.]”

A warning that addresses my speculation that the fall of the mullah regime in Iran may not be a counter-revolution as much as it could be the disintegration of a rump Persian Empire.

Ukraine may have a working AI suicide drone. No word on the cost, so we shall see how many can be produced. Also, what did I say about the trajectory of FPV suicide drones back in 2024? Nothing really new under the sun.

Fear the Discombobulator.

TARGET: Islamic State: “The US will increase materiel deliveries and intelligence sharing with Nigeria[.]”

Ukraine will get a security guarantee from America. Add in weapons sales, intelligence-sharing, economic investment in the Donbas that is an economic trip wire, more sanctions, and shadow tanker seizures. The idea America now sides with Putin is absurd.

Myanmar always seems like it is at a tipping point for something worse than what it is at the moment.

Europeans should be able to defeat Russia. You must admit, I called it a week before the invasion when I said Putin risked exposing the true state of his military by invading Ukraine.

Germany should call a suicide hotline, or something. Henry Morgenthau Jr. was unavailable for comment. Tip to Instapundit.

Africa’s problem with tribes.

Standing up: “A top Pentagon official praised South Korea as a model ally ready to take greater responsibility for its own security after a new US defense strategy signaled a reduction in American military support to deter North Korea from aggression.” This shift is not new.

Farewell Avengers.

Experts: “Unmanned vehicles that can withstand harsh weather for prolonged periods at sea are critical to maintain NATO’s strategic dominance in the Arctic[.]” Well, “can withstand harsh weather” does a lot of work in that advice.

Rough neighborhood: “Estonia is gearing up to acquire a missile defense system, participating in broader efforts by the Baltic States to boost investments in expanding their air-defense network.”

Regime realignment falters as fear of the near surpasses fear of the far: “Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez said Sunday she has had ‘enough’ of Washington’s orders[.]” Well that’s awkward. We’ll see how it goes. What option is left?

Welcome to the Indian Ocean: “India publicly unveiled what it claims to be its first long-range [anti-ship] hypersonic missile today during a display of military power at the country’s 77th Republic Day parade[.]”

Exploiting the M1E3: “The U.S. Army is also planning to ensure survivability and lethality by massively adjusting its tactics and maneuver formations to align with a new generation of weapons and networking technologies.”

Army still desperately seeking precision grenade launcher. This is an alternative to squad-level strike drones that turn squads into mini-air forces.

Navy shipbuilding funding.

Good: “The U.S. defense industrial base needs a mobilization akin to the heights of the world wars and the Cold War, according to the Pentagon’s new strategy, as the Trump administration prepares to greatly increase defense spending.” First things first.

Indeed: “the U.S. military must be prepared to conduct combat operations directly from the American homeland as adversaries gain the ability to strike the United States itself.” Consider this part of the “Well, Duh” files.

True: “Today the Arctic is the free world's frontier, and Canada can keep it safe only by treating America as a partner, not a piggy bank.” All I ask is for Canada not to stink on ice. And we need to learn a lot, too.

European rearmament is a fraud. For the European Union, all goes according to plan.

It is a mistake to draw “fresh relevance” about this 1930 American plan for today’s kerfuffle. War Plan RED used Britain as a planning standard for a war in the Atlantic, so of course invading Canada was considered. Breathe, people.

NATO chief to EU parliament: “If anyone thinks here again that the European Union, or Europe as a whole, can defend itself without the U.S., keep on dreaming. You can’t. We can’t. We need each other.” The EU parliament doesn’t consider defense its priority.

A shift to drone fighting meant no lull in fighting this winter? There hasn’t been a noticeable lull in any winter of this war.

Suggesting it was a waste for Poland to spend resources on conventional military forces because Russia is using the dread “hybrid war” is stupid.

I’m not sure if this description of the law for use of early small wars undermines or supports my view on the issue of authority to initiate military action. Something to consider.

China (and the rest of East Asia) has a looming demographic cliff. I’ve been all over China’s problem for a long time.

But what can they do? “All unauthorized drone flights in the vicinity of U.S. military installations have been classed as a surveillance threat in updated guidance[.]”

The proper response is probably a class action suit by families of those killed by drugs and drug gang violence. Also, does the form to sue the U.S. include name, phone number, and grid coordinates?

Sh*t got real: “The surface force will net a total of seven Littoral Combat Ships after the Navy shelved plans to decommission the hulls ahead of their expected service lives, USNI News has learned.”

China makes another island base: “Satellite imagery appears to show China is set to reclaim land on another reef in the South China Sea for yet another military base.” Turning a sea feature into an island does not create territorial waters (or EEZs) around it.

To the shock of nobody: “The National Defense Strategy names ‘key terrain’ within the hemisphere — including Greenland and the Arctic, the Panama Canal, and the ‘Gulf of America’ — as fundamental to U.S. security.”

I don’t doubt China’s military isn’t as shiny as it looks: “Xi Jinping proclaims his military is ready for combat. Chinese military publications feature many articles that cast doubt on the combat readiness of Chinese forces.” I just worry it is good enough for party work.

A Constellation of failures.

A building block of national power. But can a protected industry reduce costs with efficiency and innovation? Tip to Instapundit.

More B-21s or B-21s produced faster?

Looking for threats looking at you.

Gulp. Although to be fair, it actually is rocket science.

Yes, it does seem if American forces are gathering and practicing to hit Iran’s mullah’s for slaughtering perhaps tens of thousands of Iranian dissidents. Whether this is an attempt to destabilize the mullahs or just punish them is unclear. Targets hit should answer that.

Americans will work closely with Taiwan’s long-range missile units to enable them to hit China’s industrial targets. Honestly, that sounds like helping Taiwan inflict damage on China before China conquers Taiwan.

The Art of the Greenland Deal requires a deal that benefits America, Greenland, Denmark, and NATO. And I do assume that is the intent despite the rhetorical fireworks.

How will America react to a EU-India trade deal?

Rather than being deterred by the May 2025 clashes, India and Pakistan each think they won the limited conflict. To be fair, even losing a limited conflict isn’t discouraging for long.

Could new unsinkable metal tubes make ships unsinkable? Maybe. But mission kills don’t require sinking. Tip to Instapundit.

The people in charge of the “Doomsday Clock” are partisan morons. Somehow, knocking back Iran’s drive for nukes didn’t set the clock back at all. Tip to Instapundit.

That’s a problem for the mullahs: “The Iranian regime’s ongoing securitization measures, which include a costly and prolonged internet shutdown, are accelerating Iran’s economic collapse.” Killing dissidents may just be angering survivors and creating more dissidents.

Integrating small UAVs into Army tank-led combined arms operations.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE won’t let America us their air space to attack Iran. Frankly, they’d rather have a weak non-nuclear Iran as America’s enemy to incentivize America to help them. That beats having a stronger Iran friendly to America as an alternative partner.

Israel insists Hamas must disarm before moving forward on other parts of the peace plan that rebuild Gaza.

The National Rally party that could win the next French election is partly pro-Russia. To be fair, France has long reached out to Russia to balance Germany. Hell, France effectively did that in the Cold War by checking out of NATO when America was parked in West Germany.

Sh*t got real: “Passenger flights between Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa, and cities in the northern Tigray region have been cancelled amid fears of a return to conflict, with reports of clashes in one area.”

Israel wants Gazans leaving Gaza to outnumber those coming in.

Russia’s fleet would be worn out in short order: “Russia hints it will deploy Navy to protect ‘shadow fleet’[.]” Tip to OPFOR Journal.

I’d want American submarines and land-based aircraft to provide nearly all of the offensive missile power to strike Iranian targets so that the surface warships can focus on defending the carrier.

China illegally seized the shoal long ago: “An American destroyer joined Philippine forces near Scarborough Shoal for a joint patrol following the recent departure of the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) from the Western Pacific.”

That was a pointless insult to an ally. Unless there is more to this story that was left out.

More on the American military build up in CENTCOM. Israel is already there, of course.

Germany works on the SeaSpider anti-torpedo torpedo [VIDEO]. This has proven to be a Unicorn thus far. Could we exploit that ship defense weakness?

An American paratrooper battalion conducted a “mass” air drop exercise. I’m not sure how plausible such operations are over a modern battlefield.

The Navy might look a refueling VLS cells at sea with the AD(X) destroyer tender. I suspect this alternative would be more effective.

A2/AD is not new: “While kamikaze attacks are by far the best-remembered of Japan’s sea-denial capabilities, Tokyo also built thousands of shinyo (explosive motorboats), fielded hundreds of kaiten (human-guided torpedoes), and trained legions of frogmen as fukuryu (explosive human mines).”

Perhaps Iran is out of “good options”. But that doesn’t mean Iran won’t use a suicidal bad option that harms us and others, too. I worry that Iran could—through luck, planning, or external help—prove that super carriers are big targets.

Trump is squeezing Russia. This should tell you that Trump isn’t pro-Putin. As I’ve long said, Trump is trying to coax a twitchy (nuclear-armed) squirrel to take the offered cracker of actual peace in Ukraine. And hopefully more.

Pakistan spent years backing the Taliban in Afghanistan even as Pakistan allowed America to sustain its campaign in Afghanistan through Pakistani territory. Sadly for Pakistan, it got what it wanted. There are no “tame” Islamists.

Ramjet artillery shells.

Given that America gets attacked for past slavery and that too many Americans think it was a uniquely American evil (although sometimes Britain gets tossed in), this history lesson of the broader history is needed. Tip to Instapundit.

Is Ukraine failing to keep its eye on the ball? “If Russia's energy infrastructure has a weak spot, a pressure point Kyiv could hit again and again until something systemic cracks, either they haven't found it, or have chosen poorly not to go after it.”

The Palestinian Authority lied and proves there are no tame Islamists. Tip to Instapundit.

The Doomsday Clock is more stupider than I thunk because it’s now “a grand narrative engine, bundling nuclear weapons, climate change, biotechnology, misinformation, authoritarianism — and now AI — into a single comprehensive countdown to humanity’s end.” Via Instapundit.

Is it just me or does some analysis of the unclassified version of the national defense strategy seem like people searching the document for their favorite subject (like “technology”) and assuming no or insufficient mentions mean the Pentagon is unaware of that aspect of defense?

The “Donroe Doctrine” helps those who help themselves.

Xi’s night of the long knives?

China seems happy to keep Russia flailing in Ukraine: “[China] continues to provide critical support to Russia’s weapons production, including Oreshnik missiles and Shahed long-range drones.”

The Army is turning a Security Force Assistance Brigade that trains allied units into a jungle warfare expertise and training brigade. Just going to note jungles are not restricted to the Western Hemisphere.

The second Ford-class carrier is now at sea for testing.

A small Army “detachment” that includes tanks will deploy to Romania. A company-sized team? That’s the smallest level that cross-attachment makes sense, no?

Germany proposed a plan where the biggest states in the EU are more equal than others. 

The U.S. will quadruple THAAD missile production.

America and Europe are falling behind China and Russia in the Arctic. Uh oh.

A shortage of defensive missiles complicates action against Iran. This destabilizes things as America has incentive to strike first and Iran knows it may need to use their missiles first or lose them. Hello pucker factor …

Is Xi’s military purge a sign he is tired of being told his military is not ready for war? If so, he may get leaders willing to tell him the PLA is ready. Whether it is or not.

Thoughts on the proposed Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia alliance. If Iran collapses, they may not want a scramble for Iranian territory to go beyond throwing elbows, eh?

Is political Islamism waning? Waves of jihadi fury have waxed and waned in the past. Perhaps the War on Terror held the line long enough (and killed enough jihadis) to move that process along. 

The mullahs really want nukes: “Recent US intelligence found that Iran is trying to rebuild its nuclear facilities ‘deeper underground,’ according to a person familiar with recent US intelligence speaking to CNN on January 29.”

Better late than never: “The European Union designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization on January 29.”

The right-to-repair issue.

Japan’s Mogami-class multi-mission frigate.

America adds forces to bases near Iran, including Duqm in Oman. Twelve years ago I noted that location’s advantages over Persian Gulf bases when dealing with Iran. The UK uses that base, too.

This article on a narrow replacement for NATO suffers from the flawed foundation of claiming America is “Russophilic.” That is an insane take 180 degrees from reality. But on a narrow NATO supplement … 

I certainly hope the days of the mullah regime in Iran are numbered. But can American strikes and dissident action be coordinated to cut down the number?

Seeing photographs of American fighter jets sitting wing tip to wing tip in the open on airfield tarmacs in the Middle East just skyrockets my pucker factor. This feels like hubris.

Reports on Saturday of small explosions in various Iranian cities.

I wonder if part of a military operation against Iran will involve Saudi Arabia and the UAE recovering the Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs islands that Iran seized in 1971 from the UAE?

South Korea builds it own jet fighter--with their own engine planned for the next decade.

China has burrowing into Latin America—and plundering offshore fish stocks. 

Distance From China is Australia's Maginot Line

Showing the value of Australia to American security isn't enough. Australia needs to arm up so that America is able to come to its aid if China threatens Australia. And show that it isn't futile for America to make the effort. 

Australia should follow Japan's example: 

The best way to ensure U.S. reliability is persuading Washington that the alliance is in its national interest.

In addition to peacetime military and intelligence benefits that America gets from Australia, in a war with China, Australia's value surges:

In a crisis or conflict, the U.S. force presence in Australia could swell substantially, exploiting the strategic depth offered by locations further from China’s missile arsenal. The value of Australia’s strategic real estate could increase if Canberra’s 2026 National Defence Strategy (NDS), expected around April, announces further steps towards joint planning and operations. 

ASPI is preaching to the TDR choir. Australia should remember that they are far from threats--until they aren't. Distance from China offers only Maginot Line false security.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!