Squeezing Iran

When the United States and Israel struck Iran earlier this year, I assumed we wanted a short military campaign. We either spark and enable an internal revolt against the mullah regime that ends the 47-year war; or we settle for a punitive campaign that hammers Iran's military, nuclear infrastructure, and industry. Just one campaign in a war that goes on. We did not get a revolt. And we held back from really hammering Iran broadly. And this is not brief. Now we blockade and squeeze a weakened Iran financially to pressure it into agreeing to terms we find acceptable.

This claim by the author is ridiculous after Trump eased off on declaring victory over Iran:

“We are low keying it,” [Trump] told Axios in an interview Sunday, describing an approach built on economic pressure rather than new strikes. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.” Asked about the standoff, he added: “It will work out. It always works out. It’s like a chess game.”

That is not a fifth declaration of victory. It is something more evasive: a retreat from measurable claims to an open-ended assertion that patience will eventually work — a proposition that cannot be disproved on any timetable the White House has identified. 

This is all just a demand for a perfect plan that can be judged on the plan's timetable. War isn't like that. The enemy gets a vote, and all that. America wanted to liberate France in 1943. We (America, Britain, and Canada, mainly) landed in 1944. 

The Armistice of November 11, 1918 didn't formally end World War I. It took a British blockade to finally break the German resistance to admitting defeat. That's what we are doing. We've started to blockade Vienna. So let's blockade Vienna.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

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NOTE: Photo from The Australian.

When the Moon Hits Your Sky Like an Eyepiece to Spy, that's PLA

The American-Chinese rivalry over the Moon is focused on the south pole. America walked away from the moon. I hope our experience of walking and driving (cars and golf balls) on the Moon half a century ago is still useful to win this space race.

The race is on for the Moon's south pole:

The region is already the linchpin for US and Chinese ambitions because scientists believe it to be home to water ice. This crucial in-space resource can be converted into rocket fuel, breathable air or drinking water — all vital to sustaining an extraterrestrial settlement.

Both the United States and China plan to send robotic explorers to the south pole later this year, paving the way for human explorers to follow close behind. 

America and its partners had best win this race. I'm not eager for an unblinking Red Moon peering down at us. I do have confidence that our private sector main effort will ultimately prevail over China's Five-Year Moon Plans. 

There will inevitably be a military component (and don't forget SMOD!). Make sure China's People's Liberation Army can't draw a dashed line around the Moon as its "historical" territory.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from Arches National Park by Elliot McGucken. Whew. Took me a while to remember where I tucked that credit away for when I needed it.

USTRANSCOM Prime Same-Say Delivery?

Sometimes we act as if money is limitless for defense projects. 

Oh? 

The Air Force Research Laboratory has added $11.7 million to a Blue Origin contract aimed at exploring how commercial rockets could be used to transport military supplies around the world, expanding the agreement to about $13 million.  

Am I the one taking crazy pills? 

Or does the Pentagon get free streaming videos, too?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. 

Is the War on Islamist Terrorism at the End of the Beginning?

I won't dare say we are at the beginning of the end of the war on Islamic terror. But did we pass peak political Islam?

I said that the Arab Spring gave Moslems a choice other than rule by mullahs or autocrats. Mullahs and not democrats exploited the sudden weakness of autocrats. What happens when mullahs are discredited? Will democrats finally get a chance to plant seeds of change? Or will autocrats storm back into power? Until they lose credibility again. 

Big, if true: 

“The strange death of political Islam” is an idea that’s in the air at the moment. Rule by clerics, and by others who claim to speak in the name of God, is going out of fashion in the Islamic world. The New York Times carried an essay on this in June by its expert Middle East correspondent, Ben Hubbard. After the Arab Spring, he writes, there were many attempts to govern strictly according to Islamic principles. They failed. And so “political Islam in the region has withered.”

I’ve certainly noted the long silence of the once-feared “Arab street” in favor of the Palestinians. Is that part of the trend?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

Return of Army Forces to Where?

Congress wants the Army to determine where it should maintain pre-positioned stocks to resist any Russian aggression in the West after the Winter War of 2022 finally ends. An author wants the end-of-war scenario to decide the question. I think Poland is the site regardless of the outcome.

The Army must decide where to put pre-positioned stocks in Europe: 

Army Prepositioned Stocks (APS) serve as a tool for operational reach, reducing the time between strategic decisions and ground combat power in the European theater. Their value depends entirely on what Russia does after Ukraine and what EUCOM needs to answer it. Geography-first framing skips that step. 

I think the Black Sea is a cauldron of death for Russian power projection across the seas that distracts NATO from the main front of the Baltic States and Poland regardless of the scenario. And Russia's Kaliningrad is the obvious first offensive mission for NATO regardless of where Russia strikes.

Therefore, Poland remains the place for Army stocks, as I have argued since Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Resumes Its Usual Programming

 

Russia weathered the storm of Ukraine’s ground counter-attacks and Russia has picked up its pace of gaining ground. The Russian casualties are still heavy. And Ukraine still counter-attacks. But the break in the pattern in Ukraine’s favor beginning early this year did not expand into something bigger for Ukraine. Will armored vehicles return to close combat as each side adapts to massed drones? Will new North Korean troops provide the punch to set tanks loose past Ukraine’s defensive belts?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: A Super Power's Got to Know its Limitations

In case you missed it on Substack: Rethinking the Defiant-Class Battleship

In case you missed it on Substack: Is America's Ten-Year Rule Ending?

In case you missed it on Substack: Why We Should Care About Iranian Nutballs With Nukes

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section. 

Putin Flings Nuclear Poo and Beats His Chest

Putin has turned the nuclear threat dial to eleven. Which is more than ten, he warns ominously.

Okay, so Russia had another nuclear exercise in May 2026 that complemented other threatening acts to intimidate the West:

In particular, the May 2026 exercise was surrounded by other Russian actions that were intended to intimidate the West. As Russian expatriate Pavel K. Baev wrote, “Moscow’s recent nuclear brinkmanship includes missile tests, military exercises and another Oreshnik strike near Kyiv.” In June 2026, Russia staged a threatening nuclear-capable bomber patrol near NATO territory. Also in June 2026, the U.K. Royal Navy disclosed that “…it maintained a continuous, three-month surveillance operation on Russian warships navigating UK waters, including a frigate that fired a warning shot at a British yacht.”

Is it just me or do Russia's repeated nuclear threats seem extremely hollow and detached from the sad reality of Russian military readiness? 

Seriously, in what strategic world does Poseidon make sense unless Russia's ICBMs are mostly inert stage props for Nuclear Brinksmanship Theater? Heck, is China the intended audience of this Russian resolve to defend its territory with nukes?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.