The Winter War of 2022 Gets a Visit From the Ghost of Battleship Potemkin

 

The war goes on with domestic support for fighting seemingly uncertain in both countries. What happens when sailors decide to save their lives even as the rich save their wealth from Putin’s war? What if that understandable motivation can be elevated by claiming to save Russia from losing their survivable nuclear deterrent?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to put the essay there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Mobile Brigade Combat Team

In case you missed it on Substack: Ukraine's "Assault" Units

In case you missed it on Substack: NATO 3.0

In case you missed it on Substack: Combined Arms Returns to War

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Phase IX of the Iraq War Rages

Iran's nefarious influence inside Iraq could be weakened and broken if we don't lose focus.

The regional war that Iran proxy Hamas started in 2023 that expanded into the Iran War of 2026 has weakened Iran's influence in Iraq, giving America and Iraq an opportunity to suppress that dangerous influence even more: 

The regional war has presented Iraq’s prime minister, al-Zaidi, with the strongest opportunity yet to reassert state authority over the PMF, an objective that had eluded every prime minister since the founding of the current Shiite-dominated political system in 2003. Unlike his predecessors, al-Zaidi enjoys a rare convergence of interests in which many militia leaders have become invested in Iraq’s political and economic stability, while facing unprecedented pressure from Washington to dismantle Iranian-backed armed groups. His political standing has been strengthened by explicit U.S. backing for his premiership, which was widely understood to be contingent on meaningful progress toward disarming the militias. These favorable conditions have already produced tangible steps toward integrating or demobilizing several major factions, suggesting that Baghdad may finally have an opportunity to weaken one of the principal pillars of Iranian influence in Iraq.

I've droned on quite a bit over the years about what I called Phase IX of the Iraq War that turned to defeating Iran's dangerous influence in Iraq. Lose this phase and prior victories would be undone. Defeating the Popular Mobilization Force militias that Iran sponsored after ISIL rose up inside Iraq has been a key means to weakening Iran. Success will deepen American-Iraqi ties:

Iraq and the U.S. have an opportunity to build a practical partnership centered on economic development, energy security and regional stability.

Although notwithstanding Iran's continued influence, I still consider the Iraq War to have been a fragile if unrecognized success. So far. We must weaken Iran while we can and secure Iraq. ISW has more on this struggle's latest incentive to Iraq to break the militias. Fingers crossed about what the new Iraqi prime minister can achieve after his meetings in Washington, D.C.

Defeating Iran cuts a Gordian Knot that makes many problems easier to resolve.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: The initial link is firewalled. I had access because it arrived by email to interest me in subscribing.

Space Warriors Versus Space Worriers

I think I threw up a little bit in my mouth when I read that Senators are worried Space Force doesn't have enough lawyers. We don't have friggin' space lasers yet. But we're right on that issue of space JAGs.

I find this depressing:

As Space Force leaders push for more orbital warfighting capabilities and even potential moon operations, senators want to make sure they have enough space-focused military lawyers for future conflicts.

How many of our enemies fight us with this kind of legal anvil weighing down their military operations. Sadly, we assume victory and believe the only question is how cleanly we can fight the war. 

We want our troops to fight with honor. But fighting under a microscope is no way to win wars against determined and capable enemies. 

Mind you, for administrative stuff, sure we need military lawyers for this new domain. But when you say they are needed for "future conflicts" my hull breach alarm starts ringing loudly. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Poland Seeks American Support

Poland wants America rather than Europeans as the main pillar of external help to bolster their impressive armament campaign.

Poland wants powerful friends to hold of Russia's imperial ambitions in the west:

Some European states are responding to the Trump administration by seeking “strategic autonomy.” Poland, however, is trying to make itself a more appealing ally to Washington. 

Some European states are trying to stoke a crisis over America for their own European Union imperial ambitions. 

Hell, one European leader in particular wants such a crisis to get the crown. 

I think Polish worries are a byproduct of the self-serving worries of European states less than eager to arm up when America has carried the spending burden for so long. An American armored brigade would settle the Poles down. Which makes sense as the U.S. Army settles on Poland as its center of gravity in Europe.

America wants allies who step up in their own defense. America will help such allies. Poland has done that.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Polish Ministry of National Defence photo.

Follow the Oil

Iran may use their Houthi proxy to interfere with Red Sea traffic, some of which is bypassing Hormuz. Iran has spent a lot of years trying to build a proxy in that region capable of doing this.

Iran looks farther away:

Having choked off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is now signaling it could play its most dangerous card yet: using Yemen's Houthi allies to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea, opening a new front against Washington and putting two of the world's most vital energy arteries ‌at risk. 

I quibble with the claim that Iran has choked off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. I say their threat could be defeated but nobody wants to expend the effort to do so, preferring to wait until the crisis ends ... somehow. If oil shortages really hit, the effort would be made. 

But yes, Iran has a Plan B for the Gulf State Plan B of bypassing Hormuz. A capability Iran has long pursued. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Chinese Communist Party Bridgeheads On American College Campuses

China has infiltrated America via its Chinese Students and Scholars Associations (CSSAs) on American college and university campuses.

 China has 150 bridgeheads in American higher education (tip to InstaPundit):

There are 150 CSSA chapters at colleges and universities across the country. Though they appear to be harmless cultural groups at first glance, these organizations play a central role in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) united front work, which aims to monitor Chinese students abroad, stifle any form of opposition to the regime, and co-opt individuals who aren’t affiliated with the party. 

This is sadly nothing new. I've called attention to the issue in the past when China had Confucius Institutes in their arsenal of influence weapons inside America. 

Names change but the CCP war against America continues. Are we powerless to stop this?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

The Winter War of 2022 Ponders Its Life Choices

 

I must conclude that Russia’s ground forces have essentially collapsed for all practical purposes in an offensive role. When they have proven for three months that they are no longer the relentless steam roller constantly—if slowly—advancing into Ukraine despite losses, refusing to accept that is willful blindness. And their defensive abilities are suspect. Russian ground forces could recover, of course, given time and resources. Is Ukraine capable of exploiting this time of military troubles plaguing the Russian ground forces?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to put the essay there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.