The Great White North and a Let's Do It Foreign Policy

I hope that Canada and the United States sort out our trade differences before they seriously affect our defense relationship. We need each other militarily and economically, but leaders can do stupid things. Lord knows I've seen how Canadians since 2016 have whipped themselves into anti-U.S. hysteria. 

This sums it up:

In broad terms, Canada’s relationship with the U.S. has two dimensions: economic and military. The U.S. is attempting to adjust the former but not the latter. The Trump administration is increasing economic pressure on Canada through tariffs, as it has with the rest of the world, which has naturally introduced tension into the relationship. At this point, the tension is reaching a point that it may affect the military dimension as well.

America has real trade grievances with Canada over how Canada tariffs American exports and allows other nations to bypass our tariffs. But the military dimensions of our relationship should keep the trade disputes from getting out of hand. 

We assume Canada knows we need each other so we can push hard. But I don't assume Canada will not do something really futile and stupid just to spite America--and damn the cost to Canada (which will be blamed on America, of course). I mean, by doing something more harmful than stoking Canadian anger at America to suppress secessionist movements in Quebec and Alberta.

Let's remember we are friends and allies, shall we?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Misses a Chance

 

It is false compassion to reduce the rate of your losses by refusing to energetically conduct a counteroffensive and suffer a higher casualty rate if you forfeit a chance to end a war quickly only to condemn your troops and civilians to a lower rate of casualties for years on end. Did Ukraine miss its chance to exploit Russian weakness in the first half of 2026?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: American Western Hemisphere Foreign Policy

In case you missed it on Substack: "Blood and Guts" Putin Seeks Glory

In case you missed it on Substack: Make the Gulf Arabian Again

In case you missed it on Substack: Competing Distractions in the Great PACOM Game

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Porcupines are Never Enough

So-called "porcupine" weapons will not save Taiwan when the PLA lands. And I'm not confident the Taiwanese people could sustain armed resistance in the face of occupation.

I'm not against Taiwan preparing to resist occupation, but it's probably futile. And I'm fully on board the critique of porcupine fixations:

If and when the People's Liberation Army breaches the outer defensive ring, establishes coastal lodgments, and imposes a total blockade, Taiwan's standoff systems will be rapidly expended, neutralized by precision bombardment, or starved of fuel and parts. Without an organized, decentralized civil-military underground ready to execute resistance operations, the island's defense will collapse into rapid paralysis. True deterrence by denial requires more than anti-ship missiles. It demands an island-wide resistance architecture grounded in Unconventional Warfare doctrine. 

Don't rely on a porcupine defense. It will kill you. 

I think Taiwan is divided enough politically over China that resistance could be brutally suppressed by China using cooperative locals who might see PLA occupation as an opportunity. And if the PLA is running a counter-insurgency campaign, how long will resistance last when they realize Force Design Marines aren't going to liberate them?

Not that resistance training and organization wouldn't be helpful. It would raise spirits during an invasion and bolster the will to win the conventional campaign. But the priority should be driving the PLA into the sea.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image--which is awesome--from the article. 

Cheap Drone Interceptors

Volume of attackers requires volume of defense.

 

Italy is looking at a cheaper anti-drone weapon:

The Italian Air Force is mulling the purchase of U.S. technology that turns cheap unguided missiles into precision weapons, offering a low-cost option for taking out drones instead of using pricy air-to-air missiles.

Those rockets are cheap and this allows more rockets to be carried than traditional air-to-air missiles. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article. 

China's New Type 004 Super Carrier

China is building a new super carrier, this time with nuclear power. I strongly suspect these carriers are built for global power projection during peacetime rather than for war with America. Still, capabilities evolve slowly. Intent can change overnight.

China is building a new carrier design:

A new Chinese aircraft carrier, commonly referred to as the Type 004, is continuing to take shape, notably now featuring a more complete bow. This is set to be China’s fourth carrier, and there is strong evidence it will be its first nuclear-powered type, bringing an even more significant boost to the country’s naval power projection capabilities.

The ship will likely have an air wing with expanded capabilities that the Chinese are working on.

Given the string of American and allies anti-access/area denial weapons being deployed along the First Island Chain, China's surface ships will be under threat when in home port and trying to sail into battle.

So I have to ask if China's investment in carriers is for prestige and peacetime missions to defend its global economic interests:

Years ago I said I almost felt sorry for China pursuing aircraft carriers given carrier vulnerability. I thought their first weak carriers would serve best as a distraction for the U.S. Navy as the PLA conquered Taiwan.

Since China has been accelerating its global trade network, I've wondered if China's aircraft carriers were really meant for peacetime power projection rather than sea control in a contest with the United States and its allies.

Heck, the fleet might be an expensive bauble to bolster the image of the Chinese Communist Party's power.

I still wonder about all of that.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

Drones Can Be Used For Tasks Other Systems Once Did

I'm not saying new ways of doing things isn't important. But it does mean drones aren't doing unprecedented things. 

Interesting use of UAVs:

Drones have come to define the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, with both sides fielding diverse and increasingly advanced systems. However, the true advantage in this domain does not come from technology alone, but from developing new employment methods that provide a tactical edge to their respective warfighters. Recent Ukrainian reports indicate that Russian forces have adopted a new drone tactic to help control roads leading into contested urban areas. The tactic involves landing drones near key routes to monitor the acoustic signatures of passing vehicles. When a potential military vehicle is detected, the operator can use the drone itself to strike the vehicle or engage it with artillery or another strike drone. 

Drones basically do old missions with new means.

Which means the drones can be stopped, notwithstanding their newness, with updated countermeasures.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

China's Grip On Western Hemisphere Transportation

The campaign to reduce Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere will need to be waged a long time.

China fights back against losing control: 

Panama is one battle in a much larger contest over who will shape the Western Hemisphere. For more than two decades, China expanded its reach by financing, building, and operating ports, railways, electrical grids, telecommunications systems, logistics hubs, and energy projects across Latin America. Those investments created influence that extends well beyond commerce.

But Washington has begun pushing back. The dispute in Panama offers an early look at how difficult it may be to reverse two decades of Chinese infrastructure expansion.

It would have been better to have started pushing back decades ago. Worse to have delayed decades more.  

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.