That Word "Inconceivable" Doesn't Mean What You Think It Means

Are Europeans worrying too much about Russia's conventional threat given that Russia has been unable to overwhelm much smaller Ukraine after more than 4-1/2 years of war? Maybe that level of threat is inconceivable in the near term. But perhaps Europeans collectively just aren't as good as Ukraine.

Yes, Russia’s military is wounded: 

Russia’s special operation in Ukraine has left many analysts skeptical about whether Russia is brazen enough to launch an attack on a NATO member state, even if it were limited. They argue that the Ukraine war has left Russia bogged down and ill-equipped to open another front. But make no mistake, the operation in Ukraine has not paralyzed Russia. The Kremlin is ready to mobilize hundreds of thousands of additional troops and continues to stockpile drones and other munitions. Time is of the essence, and European nations must respond by addressing glaring military deficiencies and mentally preparing their populations for the possibility of war.

I'm not saying Russia could advance to the Rhine River. But empires aren't built in one campaign. So don’t dismiss Russia's capacity to wage war on Europeans. Especially if they are weak and atomized. America really should stay in NATO to maintain focused unity.

War is a contest of relative power. How are Europeans doing?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Navy Escort Carriers

A call for cheap and more numerous escort carriers is valid. But the America-class big deck amphibious warfare ship is not an escort carrier. Using it as an example over-states what actual escort carriers can do.

These authors call for Navy escort carriers:

An escort carrier would be optimized to achieve local air superiority and secondarily support amphibious operations within the First Island Chain. The current America-class amphibious assault ships come close but, without key capabilities, fall short of what a modern escort carrier would be. In the interim, the Navy must proceed with building America-class ships.

But America-class ships are really more like light carriers between escort and super carrier size. And America is not designed as a true light carrier despite having a back-up carrier role--it is an amphibious warfare ship.* And an expensive capital ship, too, requiring escorts and not really providing the numbers that cheaper dedicated escort carriers could provide. Although they would have the ability to be used as small amphibious warfare ships as a back-up role.

But I do think we should build actual escort carriers. I admit the efficiency of  super carriers is a factor. But survivability of fleet-wide aviation capabilities is also an urgent factor. With precision weapons and stealth, large strike packages that only a super carrier can provide aren't needed for a lot of missions. 

But I will settle for a sea-based aviation debate that rigorously examines if we need sea-based aviation; and if we do, what form should it take.  

*Although I retract my suggestion in that post for large Ford-class vessels with some designed as carriers with a back-up amphibious role and some designed as amphibious ships with a back-up carrier role. Seemed like a good idea at the time ... 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: CVE image from world-war-2.wikia.com.

Drones Get a New, Fresh Bureaucracy

Remember Caesar drone, thou art but a man weapon.

Huh: 

The Pentagon is creating a new four-star command to oversee the military’s push into autonomous warfare, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the technology is advancing faster than the military’s acquisition system can keep up.

Notwithstanding the logo, the command is for all services. So that includes UAVs, USVs, UUVs, and UGVs, right? Would it include space unmanned vehicles, or is that just SOP for space? 

As long as it doesn’t devolve into Victory Through Drone Power thinking:

So I'm not rejecting small drones. I embrace them. But they are just part of a complete combined arms breakfast and not the Holy Grail of silver bullet weapons that promise cheap, decisive victory.

Narrow advocacy can devolve into silver bullet faith all too easily.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from article.

The Winter War of 2022 Sends Mixed Signals About Power

 

Ukraine continues to demonstrate an ability to advance despite the drone-saturated front line. Russia seemingly prepares for renewed offensives after mobilization of reservists and committing accumulated armored combat vehicles that Russia has largely withdrawn from battle. The air campaigns loom larger in theories of victory. Russia tries to intimidate NATO by figuratively waving nukes around.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Siege of Iran

In case you missed it on Substack: My Glimpses of Military Service

In case you missed it on Substack: Reviewing the Russian Decline Era

In case you missed it on Substack: Ukraine's Combined Arms Warfare

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Ukraine Adapts to Fight the War It is Compelled to Fight

Ukraine has built an outstanding battle management system to cope with the war they are in that features a sustained Russian offensive relying on overwhelming Ukrainian defenders with numbers. Avoid the temptation to blindly adopt a system designed for Ukraine's war against Russia. 

The Ukrainian Delta system has been outstanding in creating a lightning fast integrated reconnaissance strike complex:

Delta is a digital battle management system that gives Ukrainian soldiers, battalions, and brigades a major advantage, as it enables them to observe the combat zone live and quickly know what has to be done next while automatically sharing information within a unit or, if necessary, with NATO allies. This produced dramatic results on the battlefield. Before Delta, once you identified a Russian target, it took about three days to launch an attack. With Delta, it takes seconds, or up to a minute in difficult circumstances.

But it would make total sense if the system is optimized for a static front (yes, it is static—not inert—so don’t be picky on word choice). That's the war Ukraine is waging and they have to win that war.

To me, this system copes with the static war rather than seeking to integrate many new weapons and systems into expanded combined arms operations to break the static war. Which I discussed in Army magazine. 

Can Delta be adapted for a war of movement? Just saying don't cut and paste lessons from how Ukraine must fight to how we want to fight. Otherwise we will get the war we build our military to fight.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Oh ... Canada--Wait. What?

I think Canada needs an intervention. Not a military intervention. But an intervention of friends--perhaps the governors of American states that trade heavily with Canada--concerned about Canada's recent self-destructive behavior.

Canada's prime minister has stoked anti-Americanism for domestic political objectives. And now Carney wants to “own the MAGA” via the EU: 

International opportunism retains its attractions even among the polite and inoffensive. Mark Carney won election by distracting Canadians from the serial failures of his Liberal predecessor with his “elbows up” campaign against Donald Trump. ... Carney preferred to take his place on the international stage as an icon of liberal internationalism. Clearly his term as governor of the Bank of England only whetted his appetite for even greater standing in world affairs. Why waste one’s time repairing national health care, facing down Albertan separatists or (God help you) appeasing the Québécois, when you could bask in the acclaim of your Davos compadres?

Putin tried that strategy by elevating the post-Cold War neutered NATO into a looming enemy to hide Russia's appeasement of China in order to save Russia's Far East. Putin and Russians eventually believed that ridiculous claim and created rearming enemies in Europe.

I like Canada. I have Canadian relatives. I've been there a lot. But I think Canadians are off their government-subsidized meds. 

At least Canada won't face American invasion--oh, FFS, seriously, Carney?--as a consequence of their ridiculous claim. But Canada will not prosper on this path even if Carney faces no repercussions.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Accept No Substitute For POLARCOM?

America is stitching together a pseudo Polar Command from three combatant commands. Is this a case of when you start to establish POLARCOM, establish POLARCOM?

Is this good enough? 

U.S. Northern Command plans to sign an agreement with its European and Pacific counterparts to enhance coordination and close security seams in the Arctic, a strategically vital region where all three commands converge, U.S. officials told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

NORTHCOM’s Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, U.S. European Command’s Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, and U.S. Pacific Command’s Adm. Samuel Paparo will finalize the agreement, which aims to strengthen information sharing and ensure that adversaries cannot exploit the geographic boundaries among the commands.

Or do we need an actual POLARCOM instead of messing around with substitutes?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article.