Ticket-Punching in the Russian Military

On paper, Russian commanders have combat experience. The reality almost certainly doesn't match the paper trail.

Part of Russia's poor combat performance may stem from "short command tours [which] reminds me of some of the problems we had in Vietnam that we repeated in GWOT."

Could be. I commented on that aspect of their vaunted Syrian intervention when large numbers of officers rotated through Syria:

My question is whether the Russian officers who briefly served in Syria learned to lead a fight or just punched tickets in a simulation of learning.

I'm guessing my question was valid given practice during the current much more serious war.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. Oddly, when I told it to edit the picture to show the officers lined up one behind the other, I was refused with the system saying it detected unsafe image. Why?? Bing is great but it makes it difficult for defense authors to generate illustrations.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Wildly Divergent Potential Timelines

 

Is Russia going super big on a Plan 2027 to create an even larger bulldozer to plow their way to victory? I think that plan would have worked in February 2022. I don’t know if Russia’s arsenal, soldiers, or people can stand that kind of effort now given their casualties and equipment losses over the last 4-1/2 years. And just what is Ukraine up to? I mean other than their aerial drone barrage on Russia. Or is that just my hopes getting way ahead of actual capabilities?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Dysfunction of America’s Defense Industry

In case you missed it on Substack: Calculating a PLA Defeat on Taiwan

In case you missed it on Substack: Waiting For Egypt?

In case you missed it on Substack: Killing the Rain is Hard

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Japan Seeks Expensive Security Solutions

Japan is demonstrating that its pacifistic constitution is not a suicide pact.

Japan is arming up: 

Japan’s Ministry of Defense has requested a record 8.9 trillion yen – or $55.6 billion – for its Fiscal Year 2027 Defense Budget to prioritize artificial intelligence, unmanned capabilities and long-range strike capabilities, according to budgetary documents released Monday.  

I'm not sure what that illustration depicts, but the red ships and subs are clearly losing. I bet it is blinding China.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

Taiwan's "Hedgehog" Defense?

I am happy the Taiwanese are buying some cheap weapons to fight China's expensive invasion weapons. And even happier that these will complement rather than replace conventional weapons.

Has Taiwan finally adopted a hedgehog defense?

Belated parliamentary funding for Taiwan’s drone program isn’t likely to satisfy President Lai Ching-te. Nonetheless, pressure from Washington has evidently helped achieve spending authorisation for this key part of the government’s effort to adopt a hedgehog defence strategy.

Great, a new term. Forget "porcupine". Forget "Hezbollah". 

And forget the concept. I really believe people who use this are simply twisting the concepts of combined arms and joint warfare to create a class of cheap silver bullet wonder weapons. 

Given that this drone program is just a portion of Taiwan's defenses--which include tanks to drive the enemy into the sea and warships to fight blockades--Taiwan is simple expanding their total arsenal and not relying on the latest silver bullet wonder weapon to attract our attention and raise our hopes for easy defense means.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Is it a Bridge or a Wall?

A new road bridge linking North Korea and Russia over the Tumen River is nearly completed. China was unavailable for comment.

Well, it's nearly completed:

The first-ever road bridge linking North Korea and Russia across the Tumen River appears close to completion, according to satellite imagery reviewed by Defense News, though construction on the Russian side lags behind Pyongyang’s finished part. It is a visible manifestation of the two countries’ tightening relationships, driven by Pyongyang’s military support for Russia in its war against Ukraine. 

And even if the bridge is never fully completed, it may be a wall right now, blocking Chinese access down the Tumen River to the Sea of Japan, as China wanted. Unless the road bridge has very high water clearance or is a draw bridge. And one picture I saw sure doesn't indicate that.

A new era in military cooperation begins! Against Ukraine. For now. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

No Doubt it Sucks to Be Russia

A three-day capture of Kyiv followed by a few weeks of mopping up the rest of Ukraine would have made European aid to Ukraine irrelevant. In a long war, it matters.

Russia’s ability to pound Ukraine into submission has a flaw: 

Russia faces a fundamental asymmetry as it seeks to beat Ukraine into submission with intensifying airstrikes on shopping malls, power stations, ports and other infrastructure. Kyiv can rely on a secure hinterland beyond its borders—its European neighbors—for economic resilience and for military logistics. ...

This lopsided geopolitical setup offsets, to a significant degree, Russia’s advantage in firepower. 

Early in the war, I highlighted the economic and military support the West provided Ukraine despite Russia's 9:1 GDP edge:

Ukraine is being supplied by the West, which has an immensely greater GDP advantage than Russia's advantage over Ukraine. So you can't just count the value of the arms and services provided to Ukraine when comparing the economic advantage. You'd have to count the research and development and logistics value on Ukraine's side of the ledger that provides the weapons, supplies, and services. 

As for Russian whining about Western logistics sanctuaries? Nobody is bombing Belarus, North Korea, or China. Sure, Iran is being bombed but that's not mainly related to Russia's war effort. And let's talk about how the North Koreans and North Vietnamese were armed when we fought them, okay? 

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Blackhawk Company Learned Without Bleeding

An American company commander widely reported as getting his clock cleaned by Ukrainian drone operators in an exercise gives his perspective.

This exercise was not intended to replicate our coming countermeasures, it was a lesson about what happens without them:

We did not have counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (cUAS) capability that we would have wanted. Our brigade was not a Transformation-in-Contact (TiC) unit that places new, sometimes untested weapons and tech directly in the hands of soldiers.

Perhaps the Army and industry partners have already developed a secret “win button” device for drone warfare. But if they did, we didn’t have it.

But fighting a tilted, uphill battle against seasoned combat veterans is exactly what made the experience so valuable. We did not complain; we adapted, accepting that the sky — in perpetuity, not just sporadically — was now part of the battlefield.

The company learned how to operate without active countermeasures to cope with the threat. Skills that will be necessary even when the company can fight back.

Note too that the enemy needed ground troops to find and target them after the company exploited terrain as cover from aerial recon. And when on offense during the exercise with Ukrainian drone help from the Nemesis unit, the exercise exposed a weakness of drones:

When we maneuvered and made the hunters of Nemesis feel like the hunted, the skies cleared up. 

Yes, secure positions behind static lines amplify drone effectiveness. 

I commented on the panty-flinging by drone enthusiasts for a different exercise with similar results. 

I also heard that the American exercise was supposed to help train Ukrainian drone operators. Which would help Ukraine fight more effectively if Russia resumes mechanized warfare.

Learning in realistic exercises is better than learning in deadly combat. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.