Monday, July 14, 2025

The Winter War of 2022 Switches From Carrots to Sticks

America's attempt to negotiate with Russia to end their invasion of Ukraine and hostility toward America has foundered on Putin's refusal to talk. In the past I've worried about talking to enemies because their intransigence often resulted in our leaders offering more concessions. But not this time. We offered as good a deal as Russia can get. Now Russia will get more pain.

The American government is unhappy with Russia's escalating bombardment of Ukraine's cities and unwillingness to seek a real end to the war:

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed frustration following a June 10 meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about Russia's lack of progress towards ending the war in Ukraine. Rubio stated after the meeting with Lavrov that he conveyed US President Donald Trump's frustration with Russia's insufficient "flexibility" to end the war.

While Russian troops die in large numbers for mere meters, Russia has escalated its war on Ukraine's cities:

Russia's strike tactics, coupled with the increased scale and concentrated targeting of Russia's recent strike packages, aim to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and are resulting in significant damage.

Trump overruled what the Pentagon thought was a routine evaluation of American stockpile needs by suspending some arms shipments to Ukraine. Trump said Ukraine needs air defenses to protect its people, and has followed up:

The United States will supply weapons to Ukraine with NATO footing the bill, President Donald Trump announced on the heels of discussions with the leader of the 32-nation defense bloc.

What additional consequences will flow from Russia's brutality? I'm assuming that will include support for knocking out Russia's drone factories that are fueling the aerial bombardment of Ukraine.

UPDATE (Monday) Trump announces that Europeans will buy Patriot systems and missiles for Ukraine:

The commander in chief plans on meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to discuss Ukraine along with other pressing issues this week.“We basically are going to send them various pieces of very sophisticated military equipment. They are going to pay us 100% for that, and that’s the way we want it,” Trump said. 

Systems that defend cities could also defend bridgeheads across the Dnipro River. Just saying

Also, I've long argued Trump would find alternatives to simple "aid" for arming Ukraine

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.