Trump was patient with Putin and I believe attempted to ease his worries by being openly hostile to Zelensky. Putin has refused to accept a deal to end the war short of complete victory. And now he will find out what happens when you reject an offer you can't refuse.
Russia appears to be preparing for another Big Push.
In the face of Putin's escalating war on Ukraine and refusal to seriously talk peace, Trump had been edging away from diplomacy to arming Ukraine to do what it can to defeat Russia. His announcement with NATO's Rutte last week was a turning point:
President Trump threatened Monday to increase economic pressure on Moscow if there is no peace deal with Ukraine in 50 days, underscoring his growing anger with Russian President Vladimir Putin as he outlined a deal to send weapons to Ukraine. ...
“We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them weapons and they’re going to be paying for them,” Trump said, sitting next to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office. “We’re not buying it, but we will manufacture it, and they’re going to be paying for it.”
Putin might have accepted such a deal at the end of 2022. But heavy losses since then may require Putin to demand more territory and better terms to justify those losses. And the second best option is continuing to fight so that the failure to gain enough to justify the losses is not ratified--which could be fatal to Putin's rule if not life. So a new deadline likely won't lead to a carrot-filled deal. But it will justify an American pivot to compelling Russia to end the war with sticks.
But we'll see if Putin gets the entire 50 days for anything but the added economic pressure.
Despite all the panic about America abandoning Ukraine in 2025, I was not one of them despite wanting to defeat the Russians. As I wrote after the 2024 American election:
I firmly believe "ending" the Winter War of 2022 should not mean that Ukraine loses the war. The problem is whether preventing Ukraine from losing now with a deal actually secures Ukraine or simply provides a decent interval before Russia resumes the war in a better military position than Ukraine.
Basically, does Trump let Putin get away with pretending the war is ended without any withdrawal; or does Trump react by arming Ukraine to the teeth?
The former risks Russia resuming the war sooner rather than later, possibly against a Ukraine demoralized by the losses it suffered without reclaiming any land it has lost since 2014.
And if the latter, how is the aid structured to be transactional and beneficial to America as well as to Ukraine? By using frozen Russian assets in the West? By deals that are paid with loans (and let future leaders decide if and how the loans are repaid)? By deals paid for by Europeans unable to increase their own defense industry to replace some of our weapons and munitions? By getting percentages of economic assets or strategic materials inside Ukraine as payment for arms that Ukraine says it must have to win?
Face it, a lot of ways exist for arms to flow to Ukraine without it being "aid" on our financial ledger. Including a peace deal that "sells" Crimea to Russia--plus back rent--and uses frozen Russian assets to pay Ukraine a high price for the lost territory that Ukraine can use to rebuild Ukraine.
Putin was unwilling to pretend a ceasefire-to reload was peace. Too many of his more militant and vocal supporters would have been too blind to see that reality. Which would have given Putin's rivals potential justification for taking action against Putin. So Putin has painted himself into a corner. Will Trump offer a way out to get peace sooner? Will Putin refuse to be rescued and compel Trump to pursue peace through Ukrainian victory?
We'll see what Ukraine can do if it gets an American license to kill. I have thoughts, to be sure.
UPDATE (Monday): Related thoughts.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
