I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: Who Declares War?
In case you missed it on Substack: Losing Afghanistan Was a Choice
In case you missed it on Substack: Live Fast, Die Young
In case you missed it on Substack: Difficult is Not Impossible
Iran has embarked on a "season of traitor-killing" following the brief air war. Iran will spot far more "traitors" than it managed to spot Israeli or American aircraft in Iranian air space. Tip to Instapundit.
The British have initiated contracts for the future SSN-AUKUS attack submarine.
Iran says the US must guarantee no further strikes to being talks. I say talks can't be the core of your now-shattered air defenses. I say productive talks are the way to guarantee no further strikes.
US infantry brigades are to get more loitering suicide drones.
If China wants to turn the South China Sea into a bastion for a sea-based SSBN nuclear deterrent, they will have problems. If we see a sub there in a sea control campaign, we'll sink it. That factors the pucker, as I noted in this post welcoming a Russian bastion to keep their paranoia within tolerance limits.
Russian saboteurs were arrested in Germany. Because Russia wages war on the West.
Ukrainian partisan operations in Russian-occupied Ukraine and Russia itself. The article says America won't provide satellite intelligence about targets inside Russia. Even if true, there are other sources, I'd bet.
Yes, there is a rift between Russia and China that could be exploited.
What's missing in "we are failing to pivot to Asia" pieces is they never admit we have other interests under attack; doesn't admit we reduced troops in Europe and the Middle East; and never explain how more assets packed into bases will help in INDOPACOM. Face it, for many it's an endless pivot to nowhere.
Indeed, without American leadership to help allies who carry more of the defense burden, we risk "leading from behind" fiascos where enemies defeat allies or allies look to their own interests at the expense of America's.
Could America have carried out Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web? Probably. But why would it when it can carry out Operation Midnight Mountain?
Fooling themselves in Euro Disney: "Europe vested its hopes in what might be termed the 'debutante party' school of diplomacy: that bringing a rogue state into the club of respectable nations and showering it with all the benefits of trade and aid could fundamentally change the nature of the regime." Obama, too.
The "good cop/bad cop--same cop" model of Trump's diplomacy.
If you wonder how Nazis could be so proud of their murderous hate. Tip to Instapundit.
Azerbaijan-Russian tensions certainly seem high since Russia shot down an Azerbaijan passenger plane.
Japan is working on getting America to consider the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Korean peninsula region as one theater. While it makes sense for America and Japan, more locally interested allies may see this as committing them too far afield. Herding the cats out in INDOPACOM is hard.
America struck Iran because Iran was close to nukes and Israel softened up Iran's air defenses. But the notion that the Ayatollah Khameini was standing in the way of deciding to make nukes is ludicrous. He was just the latest claimed faux moderates containing the fanatics if only we'd work with him.
Can the Army get a relatively cheap ground-launched, hypersonic weapon?
At least the ship gets a decent interval before decommissioning.
The Army's Pacific commander doesn't think china could successfully invade Taiwan. Given that job one is deterring an invasion, I have doubts about that claim.
An Australian destroyer conducted a FONOP around the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
F-35s will finally get external fuel tanks to extend their range.
Egypt earns from the Suez Canal "$10 billion a year. Egypt and Iran are enemies and reducing Suez Canal income is a win for Iran, which supported the Yemen rebels for more than a decade to make such an interdiction possible." The Houthis still shoot. Will Egypt shoot back?
But is it good enough? "While many Chinese officers were found to be corrupt and incompetent, there were exceptions, but not enough to command the number of operable ships, heavy weapons, and aircraft available. Corruption in the Chinese military is an ancient tradition[.]" Is China trying to appear far?
Without the ability to project power overseas there is no power projection.
If temporarily shifting a single Patriot battalion and one carrier strike group from INDOPACOM to CENTCOM to deal with Iran is a major temptation for China to attack, we're not strong enough to win that war. I'm calling BS on this one.
Interesting: "Israel and Syria are holding 'advanced talks' on a bilateral agreement halting hostilities between the countries, a senior Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Monday." Could Syria's rulers survive jihadi anger for making a deal with Israel? Tip to Instapundit.
"Cognitive warfare" in Russian aggression: "Russia is not weak, but it is weak relative to its goals."
Good: "To better protect its armor from top-down attacks by drones and, to a lesser extent, anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), the U.S. Army wants to buy more than 1,500 passive Top Attack Protection (TAP) add-on armor systems for its tracked combat vehicles." The ATGM problem was long known.
I'm in favor of this, because better to be ready than not. But what are the Red Storm Writhing Russians going to do? Bleed on our Atlantic SLOCs?
Israel used electronic warfare against Iranian drones in the 12-Day War.
Could soon-to-be-retired A-10s packed with anti-drone 70mm rockets go to Ukraine? Add in a secondary ground attack role, of course.
Japan's tests a naval rail gun.
I'll take "News from the 7th century, Alex."
Welp, hope that doesn't bite us in the ass.
If we need them soon and don't have them, that's bad: "The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low." But Ukraine needs them now. Are there alternative supply sources?
Behind Russian boasting about who's "next" after Ukraine, the rot expands: "Russia has accelerating problems with labor shortages and millions of Russians working in the untaxed and unregulated informal economy."
Poland arms up. But what drone counter-measures will allow all their armored vehicles to fight successfully?
The tail gunner is long gone, but can small drones protect American aerial tankers?
Canada underestimated the cost of buying F-35s. But is not buying it really a matter of Canada believing spite will protect it? Is calling Canada the 51st state juvenile? Sure. And it was funny the first couple times. But grow up, Canada. Nukes and drones may break your bones, but words will never hurt you.
Enemies seek advantage using our own legal system to hamstring us.
BRITAIN: We don't need a written constitution like you Yanks to protect our freedoms. How's that working out for you?
That's a revealing statement: "Macron’s succession problem[.]" Democracies have elections to decide that. Monarchs and autocrats have successions.
Huh: "[The EU's] guarantees to America’s First Amendment has enough exceptions to the right to free speech as to effectively nullify its existence." Yeah, that Vance fellow was waay out of bounds, eh? It's actually horrifying.
Remembering failed predictions of the Chinese economic juggernaut. I was not persuaded by the panty-flinging.
Iran may be trying to dump Russia for China to get better military support. China doesn't seem interested in playing along. Is China so dominant that Xi thinks Russia and the even weaker parts of the Axis of Steal are unworthy of notice as they try to maneuver for advantage?
25th Infantry Division artillery is looking at integrating FPV suicide drones. It makes sense since each is essentially a round of ammunition.
True: "'We can’t give weapons to everybody all around the world. We have to look out for America and defending our homeland,' Sean Parnell said in his first standalone briefing Wednesday." But don't make it more likely we'll need to use those weapons to defend the homeland.
Buck Rogers could not be reached for comment: "The Department of the Air Force has suspended plans to use an isolated Pacific island as a test site for landing rockets as it considers alternative sites." Sanity asserts itself! Nip this in the bud before the Stupid Dial is turned to 11.
The Army is relevant for INDOPACOM. Although he downplays the Army's core role, he's preaching to the TDR choir (both in Military Review). History is clear.
The Russians are just casually bastards.
For years I argued that the charge Russia interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump made no sense. So yeah, they gave their boss what he wanted. Shamefully, there was no peaceful transfer of actual power in 2017. Tip to Instapundit.
Unprepared for war: "The United States has told its NATO allies in Europe that they are on their own. [p] The problem is that China is not the only threat. There are also potential problems with Russia, Iran, North Korea and Islamic terrorists in the Middle East, Africa and Europe." Projecting power is weak.
Big ears in Cuba: "Cuba has become the central asset for the new Chinese signals intelligence/SIGINT site that gathers information on American military operations throughout the southeastern United States."
Fingers crossed: "A U.S.-led resolution of the [Congo-Rwanda] conflict profoundly affects this century's critical geo-strategic rivalry: America vs. Communist China."
Army to test stockpiling hub in Australia. The Army is the service responsible for establishing the land backbone for joint logistics. And that includes some aircraft and vessels for the final deliveries.
Seriously, is it just me who is amused and confused that while we are told the Arctic Sea will soon be ice-free year round that we desperately need icebreakers?
The U.S. thinks it set back Iran's nuclear program by up to two years. I've long said strikes only buy time and that ultimately the Iranian people have to overthrow the mullahs.
This comment on America's strike on Iran is nonsense: "Paradoxically, Donald Trump, the most pro-Russian US president in living memory, may have done more than his predecessors to expose Russia’s vulnerability." Trump doesn't insult Putin. Trump would like a peace deal. That is not being pro-Russia.
Big year for Guyana? Can America help Guyana become an energy powerhouse in the Western Hemisphere without destroying itself as so many countries with corrupt governments have?
Happy Fourth of July! I remain extremely proud to be an American. If your pride fluctuates depending on what party is in power, you have pride in your party and not America.
We know so little about ancient civilizations in South America. Jungles especially have covered up a lot of what was there before Old World diseases spread on this side of the Atlantic.
It's not poison gas, but it is banned now: "Russia is increasing its use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, according to findings from the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and two Dutch intelligence agencies."
Sometimes the determination of a few willing to run to the sound of the guns and lay down their lives can salvage some good in a system-wide military failure. God bless them.
Huh: "An unidentified North Korean man crossed the heavily fortified land border separating the two Koreas and is in South Korean custody, the South’s military said Friday."
China's fleet. And South Korea's fleet. Which is real and spectacular.
Huh: "F-22 Raptor stealth fighters appear set to be the first operational airborne controllers for the U.S. Air Force’s future Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones."
I think that's right: "Post-World War II Germany and Japan show that regime change can work. The problem in Afghanistan and Iraq was less regime change than misguided nation-building and wishful blindness to Iranian and Pakistani interference." I touched on that distinction regarding Afghanistan.
Should America be preparing for helping Cuba build a new government after communism? We should certainly be thinking about coping with the collapse of the government there.
Small suicide drones aren't the silver bullet: "Today, operating with a mix of low-cost and high-end systems is the new combined arms warfare." Preaching to the TDR choir, he is.
Pekingology: "Xi’s downfall has been rumored before. But never have we seen the recent purges (and mysterious deaths) of dozens of People’s Liberation Army generals loyal to Xi; all replaced by non-Xi loyalists." And is Kremlinology robust enough?
It took 18 months for Ukraine to plan its daring drone raid on Russian air bases deep inside Russia.
A review of India and Pakistan in the wake of the Pakistani terror attack in Kashmir and the subsequent India-Pakistan military clashes. Hate + nukes + proximity = sky high pucker factor.
The Marines don't want Tomahawk cruise missiles now.
Somebody has apparently been reading by stuff for at least the last twenty years, regarding China and Russia. But invasion isn't the only Chinese option. I had to add in one of the author's sources to a Substack post already scheduled for Tuesday.
Gotta say this from the British embassy in WDC was pretty funny. Tip to Instapundit.
The MiG-31 continues its long tradition of existence.
War: "For over a year Russia has been attacking NATO nations clandestinely with disinformation and sabotage using a combination of specialized diplomats and sleeper agents [who hire criminals for the dirty work] who have long been living in Europe."
France says China is trying to undermine the sales of France's Rafale fighter. Is China trying to prevent India from buying more? Or is France just trying to bolster sales (Feared by China!)?
Sure: "Iran plans to resume indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States, but the conditions that Iran will reportedly present would require unspecified guarantees that the United States would not strike Iran." That fits my view of the original awful deal as Iran's best air defense system.
If Latin Americans don't like America as much because it prevented Iran from getting nuclear weapons, I just don't give a damn. They'd have just blamed us for a regional nuclear war if we did nothing. They can get over their butthurt.
