For a long time I was probably on the more extreme end of the China Bear side even as there were so many China Bulls talking about China's future dominance. I was way too optimistic about China.
China reached peak population 16 years ago (tip to Instapundit):
They were going shrink in half by 2100. “Then they realized that they had been overcounting people for some time.” Then new data moved the date moved up to 2070. And now they’re saying it will be 2050. “For that to be true, the Chinese would have overcounted the population by 100 million.” And all of those missing people are of childbearing age.
In 2011, when unknown to any of us China had already peaked in population, looking at predictions of Chinese economic dominance by 2050, I wasn't sure China could do it. And if China did, I speculated America could reclaim dominance by 2100:
Let's imagine China and America in the year 2100, 89 years from now.
China's population is estimated to peak in about 2030 at 1.393 billion. By 2100, China will decline to 0.941 billion people. America, at a Census Bureau middle projection will tip the scales at 0.571 billion. At the high end projection, we'll have 1.182 billion people. Note that the projection made 11 years ago for today's population was 302,300,000 and the high end was given as 314,846,00. We are actually at 311,308,000, so we are closer to the high end prediction than the middle projection.
With all the caveats about projecting that far into the future, we could have from 60% of China's population to more people than China! Will China have twice the GDP per-capita as America then? With a population older than our population? Because if not, China's lead in gross GDP will not last and we will regain that title well before 2100 rolls around (unless India is the one to surpass us in gross GDP).
Mind you, America isn't going to reach the high end of population projections given recent demographic trends. But we'll still grow even as China shrinks faster. So we won't have to wait until 2100 to reclaim lost ground to China.
And what of the Chinese demographic problem? No big deal, eh? China got what it wished with a one-child policy, right? Turns out, no:
“China isn’t getting rich, it’s getting old.” They’re facing demographic collapse within a decade.
And to preserve Chinese Communist Party control of China, the author says war might seem like the least bad answer to get the people to rally around the CCP in the absence of prosperity.
First, the CCP doesn't even need to win a war it starts however nice that would be. Perpetuating CCP rule is the primary objective above all else, and losing a war to keep the CCP in power is a price the CCP is willing to have China pay.
I do not buy that it is all about the economy. When has history ever been about a rational calculation of how decisions affect the economy or even whether the economy is the focus of decisions?
Even if this logic is true, what if China faces an economic depression? Might not an invasion of Taiwan rally nationalistic support in the face of lack of economic progress? China's rulers wouldn't be the first to seek foreign conquest to still domestic unrest.
Worse, a China that thought it had until 2049 to show its strength openly may find it doesn't have nearly that much time if it wants to use war to lock in some gains while it can.
But the CCP rulers may still underestimate their danger. The existence of China as a political term rather than a geographic term may be the big question and not whether the CCP is in charge.
NOTE: War updates continue at this post.
