Thursday, April 21, 2022

Opportunity Knocks in the "Stans"

Is Russia's military faceplant in Ukraine practically giving its former territory in Central Asia to China?

Chinese "security engagement" in Central Asia is increasing

While concerns for stability in Xinjiang continue as the foundational drive towards deepening security relations with Central Asian states, new security interests have entered discussions since the late 2010s as expanded bilateral trade brought new issues, such as investment security and corruption-fuelled anti-China sentiment. Also, domestic issues in Central Asia, concerning leadership transition, economic decline, and nationalism, expanded the Chinese discussion of the role of Islam in politics and implications on Xinjiang’s stability.
Russia can't hold its Far East if China is entrenched in the former Soviet Central Asian countries that Russia has had close ties to since their independence:

Without a secure Central Asia, Russia's ability to project and sustain military power in the Far East is put at risk.

Russia's pointless hostility toward NATO and its failed war in Ukraine are tying Russia down in the West needlessly.

One day China will eject Russian influence in Central Asia if Russia doesn't stop angering and alienating the West, making it impossible for Russia to pivot to Asia.

NOTE: War updates continue at this post