Building an Air Defense Phalanx

As the pace of an offensive-defensive battle increases with cheaper munitions, I don't know how you can have a human in the AI loop when you are fighting in the shade.

The Army wants AI with soldiers in the loop for air defense against the developing missile and drone threats:

US Army soldiers in Europe are readying for large-scale combat and the kind of overwhelming missile and drone attacks Ukraine is facing, where the massive number of threats can make it difficult for humans to keep up, and are looking to software for solutions.

It will be like two phalanxes pushing and slashing against each other. You can't afford a human causing your effort to falter and give the edge to the enemy.

Decisions in human hands must be in the realm of the broader picture and not within the actual exchange of fire. Is writing the AI version of rules of engagement the best way to have human hands on this system? Are programs of engagement the way for all but the biggest decisions that fall outside of the POE?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from my linked phalanx essay. [I added the last two sentences shortly after publishing. I meant to clarify the final statement with this angle.]

How the Enemy Votes

Iran hit American bases hard at the beginning of the air campaign early this year. Enemies will do that.

I was fully aware that Iran hit our forces hard despite the lack of public battle damage assessment. This shows what Iran did:

Iran's strikes on more than two dozen U.S. bases in the Middle East focused on early-warning systems before hitting aircraft and buildings, causing billions of dollars in equipment damage, according to an Associated Press analysis. 

It isn't that the U.S. didn't anticipate the threat. I noted the dispatch of defensive weapons before the American-Israeli campaign began, including new anti-drone weapons. But the proximity of American bases to Iran made the Iranian threat far worse than we apparently anticipated.

Further, this exposed our general failure to build both passive defenses to endure what we cannot shoot down (or destroy before launch) and the capability to rapidly repair what is damaged. That is less Future Warfare than flashy high-tech--especially drone-based--weapons.

The investigation also notes we pulled forces back from the exposed bases. Which is a good adaptation to cope. And I noted at the time that the damage Iran inflicted did not halt our ability to continue the strike campaign.

If strikes resume, I hope we prepared magazine depth, passive defenses, repair capabilities, and created better ability to strike the Iranian launchers before they fire. 

In related areas, the value of Google at war.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: The satellite image is from the cited article "taken over Naval Support Activity Bahrain on July 23, 2026, displaying extensive damage to the satellite communications system and warehouses. (© Airbus DS 2026 via AP) (Airbus DS via AP)."

Beware of What You Wish For: European Edition

If Europeans rearm uncertain of America's intentions, they will increasingly buy their own weapons. And have their own foreign policies. Hilarity may not ensue.

Britain, France, Germany, and Poland could move away from American weapons purchases if America draws down too much or with too much uncertainty:

A rapid, uncoordinated U.S. military drawdown from Europe could push key NATO allies further away from American weapons over the long term, according to a new RAND study, a shift the authors say would hurt the U.S. defense industrial base.

Well, yes. America has been telling other NATO members they must do more to defend themselves for decades. And that naturally risks allies building their own weapons if they think they can't count on the U.S. for the spares and ammo to use them.

And if our allies have their own weapons? Well, that alliance feature we have mistaken for a bug could cause problems, eh? This isn't to say Europeans are more prone to war than any other people. But we may not like the war Europeans fight. No more than they like all that we fight.

And if European combatants are stronger, America may not have the strength to quickly intervene--and be forced to watch nervously from afar. 

Mind you, if we had maintained our defense industrial base sufficient to remain the Arsenal of Democracy, allied rearmament wouldn't have to mean allies rebuilding of their own defense industries in ways that undercut our own. 

Yet this is our wish.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from National Geographic.

NOTE: I used this for a slightly expanded version on Substack. 

21st Century Camp Followers

Ukrainian soldiers at the front receive valuable help from friends and family. But I worry about the long run even as I recognize the need to survive the short run.

Ukrainian soldiers don't wait for the military procurement system to deliver what they need:

Once in the military, new soldiers reach out to friends and family back home for needed equipment, especially drones. The development of drones in Ukraine was enhanced by all the friends and family members of Ukrainian soldiers who didn’t just send their soldiers what they said they needed, but searched around on the internet, social networks, and among friends for ideas and help in developing those ideas into something useful in a combat zone.

I noted this resource early in the war. And more than supplies are possible. But I do worry that the effort could be twisted in ways that harm the Ukrainian war effort. Still, more than four years after I issued a caution, the system still seems beneficial.

In related areas, the value of Google at war.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Adjusts to America’s Elections

 

Russia has decided to try to break the Ukrainian people rather than break the Ukrainian ground forces. This change in strategy coincides with America’s mid-term elections that led to Democrats controlling Congress (starting early next year). This this could lead to greater open support for Ukraine. Or just more angry talk about Putin. We shall see if it wrecks a chance to “flip” Russia into a frenemy alliance against China, which poses a threat to both America and Russia. Or maybe Putin thinks he is now on deadline to either win the war or cut a deal with Trump while he can. The Russian winter aerial blitz on Ukraine’s civilians may be the campaign that decides which way Putin—or his sudden successor—goes.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Fighting Under an Enemy Microscope

In case you missed it on Substack: The Proto-EABO Battle of Wake Island

In case you missed it on Substack: Punching Through the Reconnaissance Strike Complex

In case you missed it on Substack: American Support for the Defense of Ukraine

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

The FPV Suicide Drone-Artillery Convergence

I have viewed FPV suicide drones as a form of artillery. The branches are converging.

The Army and the manufacturer conducted a significant live fire test for the HIMARS rocket:

A GMLRS rocket normally follows a programmed trajectory using satellite-assisted inertial guidance, making it effective against fixed positions but less suited to targets that relocate during flight. Introducing an external targeting update creates another engagement option without requiring the launcher to fire a replacement rocket.

In a statement published on October 28, 2026, Lockheed Martin confirmed that the demonstration involved launching a GMLRS rocket from an M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), followed by an in-flight target update transmitted through the Strigo datalink and Remote Interceptor Guidance-360 (RIG-360) system. The rocket successfully changed its target assignment and destroyed the moving objective. 

I think FPV suicide drones are simply a form of artillery. 

As artillery converges with FPV suicide drone capabilities, will it make sense to emphasize FPV suicide drones?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. Also, I have a small amount of Lockheed Martin stock. 

Apres le Mauvais Homme Orange, le Deluge

The budding romance between Canada and the European Union will not last the end of the Trump presidency. The two use each other to tweak the Bad Orange Man. But their visions of what they want overlap nowhere else. Face it, they are friends with temporary political benefits.

While Canada needs close defense and economic ties with America, Canada wants a little room to maneuver alongside other sovereign middle powers. And defying the Bad Orange Man is good politics for Prime Minister Carney. 

The European Union resents America--regardless of who is president--for being a speed bump on the EU path to stripping away the prefix of their proto-imperial entity. Tweaking Trump by romancing Canada is using Canada as cannon fodder to achieve an ever closer union in Europe. And the hot European chick might just be a bloc tease:

The EU has backed away from its offer to Canada to start talks on becoming an "associate member" after disagreements between member states just as an EU-Canada summit was set to begin in Montreal.

So don't expect too much from this new relationship:

Canada’s prime minister wants to help build a new world order that can counterbalance the power of the United States and China. But his vision depends on a new relationship with a Europe that doesn’t see itself as a middle power at all. 

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has a different vision: a Brussels-centered bloc that extends the EU’s economic and geopolitical influence, starting with Canada. 

Unless Canada decides it doesn't mind being the "51st state" of the EU. But until their ugly breakup, they'll always have a magical honeymoon in Montreal.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

Holding the Line in the First Island Chain

There are strategic and military risks operating forward in the First Island Chain close to China's military power. But there are strategic risks of standing off.

This is correct about America's military strength in the First Island Chain of the western Pacific:

The United States will never be able to peer inside of Xi’s head, but he must know that gambling on conflict in the Pacific could earn his place in history as the unifier of China or risk defeat, his legacy, and the stability of the Chinese Communist Party regime. Will he be more likely to take that wager with the presence or absence of forward-postured US forces? History points to the answer. The United States demonstrating a strong hand in the first island chain will help Xi recognize that war is a bad bet.

Yet forward-deployed forces on the first island line are vulnerable. But allies left on their own at the first island chain may wobble.

So it is a delicate balance between deterring with presence; preserving forces with distance; considering whether China is tempted to attack or is deterred; and reassuring or frightening our allies along the first island chain line.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from Taipei Times.

Clouding Up the Transparent Battlefield

The battlefield is transparent. Until friendly "deception, concealment, dispersion, and aggressive counter-reconnaissance" deny the enemy that transparency. 

How the Army Fights includes this "key point:"

Battlefield transparency is not fixed. It is a relative advantage gained when one force builds understanding and acts effectively while denying its adversary the ability to do the same.

Preaching to the TDR choir, the Army is (quoting an earlier essay):

The key isn’t remaining unseen. The key is remaining unseen long enough to move quickly enough and outpace the enemy’s ability to react. Those are factors relative to the enemy and not absolute aspects of operating. Increased surveillance and communications will not change the relative advantage combatants seek.

Work the problem. As the quoted part of the introduction taken from the Army document states.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

More Meat on the BONE

The Air Force must help hold the line in the Western Pacific until the Navy is restored. 

The B-1 bomber will be updated to fly through the 2040s with a greater bomb load and the ability to fire hypersonic weapons:

In recent years, the Air Force has also reconfigured the B-1B weapons bay to carry more weapons, increasing the B-1B’s magazine capacity from 24 weapons internally, all the way up to 40. The adjustments to the bomb bay will also enable the B-1B to carry hypersonic weapons, something which greatly increases the aircraft’s lethality.  The bomb bay itself has been massively reconfigured in anticipation of weapons which have yet to exist. 

This will be useful in PACOM.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Pretends It is January 2022

 

The fighting continues with Ukrainians seemingly (slightly) dominant on the ground; and with each side escalating air attacks on the other side’s homeland. Are negotiations just the information arm of the violent side of the war? Or is Russia feigning dominance even as it is eager to end the folly of its invasion before really bad things happen. The war seems in the balance. And I’m not sure which side of the knife’s edge the outcome falls on. Or when that might happen.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Plan B in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea Gets a Western Framework

In case you missed it on Substack: Thickening the Navy Air Defense Screen

In case you missed it on Substack: Managing the Massing of Effects to Enable Maneuver

In case you missed it on Substack: The Chinese Communist Party's Fear of History

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Saudi Arabia Getting Whacked With the Drone-Shaped Clue Bat

Will Saudi Arabia rulers react to the reality that the Palestinians are more than happy to die for mullah-run Shia Iran? 

I think this is right:

Saudi Arabia’s future depends on dropping its commitment to Palestine[.]

All Saudi Arabia has gotten is the Palestinians siding with Shia Iran whose proxy network is eagerly attacking Saudi Arabia with drones and missiles.

Face it, the Arab Street that comes out in favor of the Palestinians is the dog that did not bark in the night these days. It is time to  deny the Palestinians the title of Queen of the Victim Prom.

The Saudis could start with a radical path to delegitimizing the murderous fanatics and rewarding those who would build Palestinian prosperity rather than rejoice in swirling their hands in the blood of dead Israelis. 

Deny Palestinians the hope of killing all the Jews from the river to the sea and maybe they will settle for a more reasonable peace deal.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Tyranny of Distance is Followed By the Tyranny of the Shores

Sea control is vital for American national security. But the ultimate purpose of controlling the seas is making sure Eurasian resources are not mobilized by enemies to threaten America. 

From the “Well, Duh” files: 

American soldiers’ ability to wage war in Europe and the Pacific is undermined by extreme distance from potential battlefields and shortages at key overseas headquarters, according to a new report.

Sea control is crucial. But it is crucial for projecting land power ashore.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Never Waste a Clusterf**k of Crises

I'm reasonably sure that the European Union (EU) gray, autocratic bureaucrats see opportunities in their many crises.

So the EU is heading into a "perfect political storm"? 

The EU is already struggling with how to get its largest-ever budget agreed, plug a massive financial hole for Ukraine and navigate geopolitical pressure from the U.S. and China. Now, it also faces being paralyzed by domestic political strife in the countries that collectively make up around 60% of its GDP and population. 

Yeah, "perfect" as in perfect excuses to expand EU political authority to chip away a little more at the prefix in their proto-imperial union.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article.

Protect the Cargo Ships With Navy in a Box

Russia is leaning forward to attack shipping in the Black Sea in NATO state exclusive economic zones, and more ominously in their territorial waters. NATO should loan defensive systems to cargo and tanker ships that NATO forces ashore control while the ships are in the Black Sea.

NATO seems like it will respond to Russia's attempt to intimidate NATO over support for Ukraine:

Russian drones are suspected of sinking a cargo ship and leaving chemical tankers ablaze near the Black Sea coasts of Bulgaria and Romania, respectively. The latest attacks mean that at least seven ships have been attacked in the exclusive economic zones of NATO member countries—and even within Romania’s territorial waters if Russian involvement is confirmed in the case of the chemical tankers.

Such attacks have spurred requests for NATO to redeploy counter-drone systems to provide more protection. In a social media post on October 15, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that NATO had increased “counter-drone capabilities” along the alliance’s eastern flank after meeting with the leaders of Bulgaria and Romania.

I suggest Navy in a Box that would put NATO-controlled systems on the decks of civilian ships while in the Black Sea. Perhaps NATO A-Whacks patrolling would be a good idea, too.

Still, don't panic. In a shooting war the Russian Black Sea fleet would lead a short but exciting life. 

And of course, improve Ukraine's combat capabilities given that Russia strikes to deter that kind of NATO help.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article (Credit: Hristo Rusev/Getty Images)

Here Be Dragons

Seafarers once saw sea monsters in the mists, which made sailing beyond sight of the coast a scary prospect. The sea monsters are coming back.

The sea is massive but the infrastructure of commerce over the seas is relatively small and quite vulnerable:

Pipelines and undersea communication cables are vulnerable to relatively simple types of disruptive and destructive sabotage. Unfortunately, most seaports face similar threats.

Add in the choke points for sea commerce and you have the battlefield defined for a global fight for the seas with sea drones battling each other to protect or degrade pipelines, cables, and sea traffic through choke points.

How do navies adapt to that? How do economies?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the second link.

The Winter War of 2022 Prepares to Turn Against China

 

I’m connecting dots to see a picture I’ve long wanted to see and which I think makes sense for America and Russia, not to mention Ukraine and the rest of Europe as well as America’s allies near China, which will have to devote more military resources inland. My wish to see such a picture could be the fatal weakness in dot-connecting skills. Yet while my picture rejects the common view that Trump is betraying Ukraine, that common view may actually help complete this picture by enabling Putin to claim Trump has Russia’s back if Putin ends his war on Ukraine. Then Putin could quietly pivot east to confront China and its claims on large and important portions of Russia’s Far East on the Sea of Japan.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Risk of Forward Defense

In case you missed it on Substack: Sea Control

In case you missed it on Substack: AI, the Cause of and Solution to Our Future Battlefield Problems

In case you missed it on Substack: Protecting Obstacle Reduction

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Four American Corps to Test Drone Warfare Concepts

Drone defense can't be based solely on vehicles or other targets. To restore operational movement, a corps must be able to orchestrate drones and counter-drones systems and other assets to gain an information advantage over the enemy to get the brigades moving and through the enemy kill zone. Patton achieved that in the hedgerow slog in Normandy.

Four U.S. Army corps withe tailored "autonomy formations" will test various aspects of drone warfare:

Several new Army formations will focus on autonomous warfare as the service continues its push to adopt battlefield drones.

Each corps will test equipment, evaluate tactics and recommend ways to carry out autonomous missions across long-range fires, protection, tanks, logistics and obstacle breaching, the service said. The new autonomy formations include a fires battery and watercraft company in I Corps, an armored reconnaissance company in III Corps, a breaching company in V Corps, and aerial reconnaissance and lift companies in XVIII Airborne Corps. 

I am sure that testing will show that many types of drones are useful for reducing the risk to soldiers near the front line (which extends quite a bit behind the forward line of troops). But I also suspect that testing will show that LINK small UGVs are not useful as general purpose direct-fire combat vehicles.

Hopefully the Army can restore operational maneuver from positional warfare:

Patton derived his success in large-scale combat operations on the continent from his dynamic approach to warfare and his special units, purpose-built to aid Third Army in managing information. Specifically, Patton strove to generate what twenty-first-century U.S. concepts define as information advantage, “a condition when a force holds the initiative in terms of relevant actor behavior, situational understanding, and decision making.”

How will drones affect that? And how can counter-measures negate enemy drones?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from second link.

The PLAN Plans For a SINKEX

China dangled its oldest carrier northeast and east of Taiwan. Which is useful training for its wartime role of distracting the United States Navy.

The PLAN headed to sea: 

The People’s Liberation Army Navy Liaoning Carrier Strike Group was operating in the Philippine Sea as of Wednesday, according to a Japan Joint Staff Office. 

Led by aircraft carrier CNS Liaoning (16), the strike group was spotted 155 miles south of Japan’s Ishigaki Island launching and recovering aircraft. The strike group includes Liaoning, cruisers CNS Anshan (103) and CNS Wuxi (104) and destroyer CNS Huainen (123). 

The location is interesting, as this map by Japan's Joint Staff Office tracked:

My view is that the old Soviet carrier that the Chinese used to begin their carrier development is best suited to distract the United States Navy which may take the time to smash the task force while China uses that time to get ashore in strength on Taiwan.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Images from the article.

Making Lemonade from LCS Lemons

The Navy is looking at how the Marines can use the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) for attack helicopter operations. Let's explore expanding that line of inquiry.

Huh:

The U.S. Navy is demonstrating how a ship originally built for littoral surface warfare could assume a broader role as a mobile aviation node for Marine Corps attack helicopters. In imagery dated October 5, 2026, and released October 12, Commander, Expeditionary Strike Group 7 documented sailors aboard the Independence-variant littoral combat ship USS Canberra (LCS 30) preparing a Marine Corps AH-1Z Viper of Marine Light Attack Helicopter Squadron 367 for departure at White Beach Naval Facility, Okinawa. The activity is part of wider Navy-Marine Corps integration that could expand the number of locations from which armed rotary-wing aircraft can operate across the Indo-Pacific.

One, if helicopters can carry out strike missions, why did the Marines rip apart the Corps with Force Design 2030?

Second, as long as the Navy and Marines are looking at the LCS, consider using them to move and sustain Marine outposts in expeditionary advanced base operations.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photograph from the article.

Are Russian Counter-Drone Operator Missions Effective?

Ukraine says that the Russians are more effective in hitting their small UAV operators behind the lines. Interesting.

Is this true?

Ukrainian military sources have reported on the increasing effectiveness of Russian glide bomb and artillery strikes against Ukrainian drone operators, as the Russian military command looks for ways to overcome Ukraine’s natural defensive advantage and its advantage in unmanned systems.

On the one hand, it has long made sense for combatants to use their persistent battlefield surveillance to find and strike the drone operators in their bunkers behind the lines. So this seems logical. Russia is going after Ukraine's drone operators and is having some success.

Yet it also makes sense for Ukraine to "admit" it is hurt if Russia's efforts aren't very successful. It makes sense for Ukraine to "publicize" Russia's so-called success to encourage Russia to keep doing what they are doing--which could be largely ineffective in reality.

From where I sit, the battlefield isn't transparent at all. And it isn't just from my perspective far from battlefields, eh? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: U.S. Army photo.

AI Is Not Replacement Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence is not Artificial Leadership.

I concur enthusiastically:

"You can't AI yourself to be the best maneuver brigade commander out there," LaNeve said. "You use AI as a tool to help you push the formation, use the tools to defeat the enemy, but you still have to be grounded in the core tasks that you’ve been assigned."

I recall that in the Cold War the Soviets wanted computers to actually make the decisions of officers leading combat units. I don't remember the level of command. I think it was more for company commanders. This would make up for lack of an effective NCO corps and for poor initiative in officers. It failed.

We really shouldn't try the same thing believing AI can replace well-trained officers and NCOs. AI is just a tool that can make good leadership more effective. Or make poor commanders FUBAR at the speed of AI.

But I won't be shocked if the Russians and Chinese try the same path.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Wonders About the Russian Army

 

Have Russia’s ground forces effectively collapsed? Do we fail to see it because Ukraine can’t scale up their offensive capabilities? Does the jump in troop dispersal on the battlefield make it harder to generate and expand panic in enemy troops?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Ford-Class Amphibious/Strike Carrier

In case you missed it on Substack: Russia's Bluff Gambit

In case you missed it on Substack: The Mother of All Cutters

In case you missed it on Substack: Enabling Maneuver With UAVs

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Is There a Debate Over the Main Enemy in the PLA?

I will ask again, does the People's Liberation Army (PLA) believe it is the defender of China or the defender of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)?

What is PLA leadership disloyal to? China or Xi? 

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s purge of the senior leadership of the People’s Liberation Army continues unabated. It reveals both the reach of the Chinese Communist Party’s disciplinary apparatus, and the persistence of disloyalty and corruption in the PLA. ... 

Its central purpose is to ensure that professionalisation does not generate military autonomy and that organisational authority remains subordinate to party authority.

But recall that the primary objective of the CCP is to maintain the CCP’s monopoly on power in China. So the decline of communist purity in favor of nationalism to bolster the CCP legitimacy is a dangerous path for the CCP.  

Xi may want a PLA both technically proficient and utterly loyal. But autocrats have often discovered they must choose one. Who is Xi more worried about? 

Yet, if an effective military is chosen, sometimes an autocrat may find it must keep that military too busy to think about the autocrat as the enemy. Or the autocrat may find that nationalism inspires at least part of the military to act when it believes the political leadership will not--or to protect itself as the true defender of the nation.

Have a super sparkly "how's that pucker factor" day.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. 

"Europe" Identifies Its Real Enemy

Sometimes enemies telegraph their hostility. Say, look at what the European Union wants. When the solution to every problem is "ever closer union" you have to consider whether ever closer union is the only thing that matters to Brussels.

This is fascinating in what it reveals:

Factional struggles around the US president have left Europe at the mercy of competing foreign policy agendas. But European disunity only undermines European interests[.]

What's the solution? More "Europe":

Europeans need to gather all the unity they can to undermine Washington’s divide-and-conquer strategy.

To defend themselves against America.

I think that divide-and-conquer accusation is a whole lot of EU projection. And of course the EU fanboys (and girls) view America as their main enemy. America is the main reason Europeans have freedom more broadly since 1945. 

Without American influence in Europe, I don't know how long that breadth of freedom will last. The proto-imperial European Union can't strip away the prefix to suppress stirrings of liberty amongst the peasants who need to know their place with America around. So every "crisis"--real or imagined--is an opportunity to chip away at the prefix.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

That Word "Inconceivable" Doesn't Mean What You Think It Means

Are Europeans worrying too much about Russia's conventional threat given that Russia has been unable to overwhelm much smaller Ukraine after more than 4-1/2 years of war? Maybe that level of threat is inconceivable in the near term. But perhaps Europeans collectively just aren't as good as Ukraine.

Yes, Russia’s military is wounded: 

Russia’s special operation in Ukraine has left many analysts skeptical about whether Russia is brazen enough to launch an attack on a NATO member state, even if it were limited. They argue that the Ukraine war has left Russia bogged down and ill-equipped to open another front. But make no mistake, the operation in Ukraine has not paralyzed Russia. The Kremlin is ready to mobilize hundreds of thousands of additional troops and continues to stockpile drones and other munitions. Time is of the essence, and European nations must respond by addressing glaring military deficiencies and mentally preparing their populations for the possibility of war.

I'm not saying Russia could advance to the Rhine River. But empires aren't built in one campaign. So don’t dismiss Russia's capacity to wage war on Europeans. Especially if they are weak and atomized. America really should stay in NATO to maintain focused unity.

War is a contest of relative power. How are Europeans doing?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Navy Escort Carriers

A call for cheap and more numerous escort carriers is valid. But the America-class big deck amphibious warfare ship is not an escort carrier. Using it as an example over-states what actual escort carriers can do.

These authors call for Navy escort carriers:

An escort carrier would be optimized to achieve local air superiority and secondarily support amphibious operations within the First Island Chain. The current America-class amphibious assault ships come close but, without key capabilities, fall short of what a modern escort carrier would be. In the interim, the Navy must proceed with building America-class ships.

But America-class ships are really more like light carriers between escort and super carrier size. And America is not designed as a true light carrier despite having a back-up carrier role--it is an amphibious warfare ship.* And an expensive capital ship, too, requiring escorts and not really providing the numbers that cheaper dedicated escort carriers could provide. Although they would have the ability to be used as small amphibious warfare ships as a back-up role.

But I do think we should build actual escort carriers. I admit the efficiency of  super carriers is a factor. But survivability of fleet-wide aviation capabilities is also an urgent factor. With precision weapons and stealth, large strike packages that only a super carrier can provide aren't needed for a lot of missions. 

But I will settle for a sea-based aviation debate that rigorously examines if we need sea-based aviation; and if we do, what form should it take.  

*Although I retract my suggestion in that post for large Ford-class vessels with some designed as carriers with a back-up amphibious role and some designed as amphibious ships with a back-up carrier role. Seemed like a good idea at the time ... 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: CVE image from world-war-2.wikia.com.

Drones Get a New, Fresh Bureaucracy

Remember Caesar drone, thou art but a man weapon.

Huh: 

The Pentagon is creating a new four-star command to oversee the military’s push into autonomous warfare, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the technology is advancing faster than the military’s acquisition system can keep up.

Notwithstanding the logo, the command is for all services. So that includes UAVs, USVs, UUVs, and UGVs, right? Would it include space unmanned vehicles, or is that just SOP for space? 

As long as it doesn’t devolve into Victory Through Drone Power thinking:

So I'm not rejecting small drones. I embrace them. But they are just part of a complete combined arms breakfast and not the Holy Grail of silver bullet weapons that promise cheap, decisive victory.

Narrow advocacy can devolve into silver bullet faith all too easily.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from article.

The Winter War of 2022 Sends Mixed Signals About Power

 

Ukraine continues to demonstrate an ability to advance despite the drone-saturated front line. Russia seemingly prepares for renewed offensives after mobilization of reservists and committing accumulated armored combat vehicles that Russia has largely withdrawn from battle. The air campaigns loom larger in theories of victory. Russia tries to intimidate NATO by figuratively waving nukes around.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Siege of Iran

In case you missed it on Substack: My Glimpses of Military Service

In case you missed it on Substack: Reviewing the Russian Decline Era

In case you missed it on Substack: Ukraine's Combined Arms Warfare

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.