The Winter War of 2022 Wonders if Putin--Or Russia--Survives

Russia has growing problems rising from its failed war to conquer Ukraine. Logistics are the least of them.

 

The war goes on. Russia's offensive seems to have contracted to the effort to take the Ukrainian city of Kostyantynivka. This isn't Stalin's Red Army anymore. In the strategic air war, Ukraine focuses on military logistics and is affecting the Russians from the front to the Russian defense industrial base and fuel production/export.

I've read and seen more reports that Ukraine is succeeding in cutting off Crimea from supplies. I refrain from concluding this will truly isolate the Russians--as opposed to adding to Russian logistics difficulties--given what I read about American interdiction in the Korean War against railroad lines. Apparently, the North Koreans/Chinese only needed 5% of capacity to keep enough supplies flowing to their troops.* Still, I can see a politically devastating (for Putin) image of Russian civilians heading east across the Kerch Strait Bridge and becoming refugees to escape the impact of Russia prioritizing their security forces for the supplies that make it by road, rail, sea, and air.

And while that reality means Ukraine has at least survived due to its sacrifices, Russia stepped on multiple rakes:

Russia is currently entering a new Time of Troubles, similar to the fifteen years of chaos in Russia 500 years ago. The current version is similar in that the major supporters of Vladimir Puttin and the war in Ukraine have started backing away from the war. Public opinion is increasingly against the war and hostile to allowing their sons and brothers to be recruited into the army to die uselessly. Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s assistants, advisors and staff are hiding or downplaying what is actually happening with the economy plus, in the Ukraine war, the growing Ukrainian victories and the plummeting morale of Russian soldiers.

I've certainly wondered about that outcome as the price Russia might pay.

Will the collapse of the Russian army be the trigger? Or an effect of disorder at home? Or will the clusterf**k be so densely packed that it is hard to tell cause from effect? 

Is this the first act of the Time of Troubles?

The Russian military command is reportedly withdrawing forces from the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine is rendering defenses in the area increasingly untenable.

I'll be watching this long-quiet part of the front. Will exposure at the front and growing supply problems lead to more withdrawals?

The Russian military command reportedly prohibited military cargo traffic along Russia’s main highway connecting mainland Russia to Crimea due to Ukrainian strikes. 

And I wonder if it gets much, much worse for Russia. 

So far Putin retains enough popular support for him if not for Russia's deteriorating conditions and loss of life. But "if only the tsar knew!" won't protect Putin for long. 

Is it too late for Putin to save himself and perhaps Russia itself with a radical move that recognizes the true threat to Russia? Because if Russia enters a Time of Troubles, China will pounce.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

*That figure is my memory of it. Might be different. But the effect of whatever percentage I read was that not much capacity was needed, making our interdiction effort difficult. Have things changed? Is Ukraine more than 95% effective?

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: DRONEDASH

In case you missed it on Substack: Buying Diego Garcia

In case you missed it on Substack: The Clue Bat Strikes a Blow!

In case you missed it on Substack: Victory Through Air Power and the Pause That Refreshes

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section. 

Removing What Is Unneeded

I don't think the American removal of air and naval assets is a problem for defending European NATO. But they could be significant for INDOPACOM and CENTCOM, where Europeans are thin on the ground.

Details about the reduction of American contributions to the NATO Force Model are coming out:

The U.S. intends to significantly reduce military contributions available to assist European allies in a crisis, including fighter jets, warships and mid-air refueling aircraft, German news outlet Spiegel reported on Tuesday. Specifically, half the number of strategic bombers, a third of the fighter planes, fewer destroyers, and no submarines. 

The NATO Force Plan looks good on paper with raw numbers of troops, but it overwhelmingly consists of air and naval power in the early months of mobilization. Honestly, Russia's naval power is a joke that Europeans can crush. And Russia simply doesn't prioritize air superiority. American and European air power can handle the Russians.

What is needed these days is European ground-based air defense for mass missile and drone attacks.

And as I mentioned in the Substack post at the start, American forces not earmarked for NATO could still be committed there. What America has now is more flexibility for global threats. Because Europeans have to care about Europe more than America does now.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the quoted article.

To Be, Or Not To Be

I've long worried--since 2003--that attack helicopters are running out of room to be effective on the battlefield for deep strike because of greatly improved ground-based air defense weapons. One means of overcoming that threat is increasing the range of helicopter weapons. We have turned that dial to 11.

Huh:

Weapons manufacturer Anduril developed a new drone weapon for the Apache attack helicopter in only six months. This weapon was tested when an AH-64 launched this drone for the first time. It flew 457 kilometers and had an impact similar to a Hellfire missile.

That's great for existing helicopters. And we already started down that path. I suspect this much effort is made because for the Army, when you can't be with the one you love, love the one you are with.

But in the long run, why can't cheap trucks carry that Anduril weapon? Or other weapons.

Still, despite my worry I accept that counter-measures plus different weapons and tactics could preserve the helicopter's role. But is the cost worth the result?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Ah Yes, I Remember It Well

Europeans need to defeat Russia's invasion of Ukraine to protect themselves. But beware a failure to repeat the smooth victory over Hitler in 1945 and transition to peace with victor and vanquished clear? Are we talking about the same era?

Apparently, defeating Russia's war to conquer Ukraine won't be as clear as the end of World War II when the guns fall silent:

Yet it won’t be over even when it’s over. Unlike on VE Day 1945, we won’t know who has won at the moment the shooting stops. The arrival of “peace”—most likely in the form of a ceasefire that becomes a longer-lasting freezing of hostilities along the current frontline—will be another moment of danger for Ukraine. Internally, all the social differences and traumas accumulated in years of war could explode in an angry presidential election campaign and highly divisive subsequent politics.

An angry election campaign, eh? The horror.

So very sad that the clarity of victory and smooth transition to peace after World War II won't be repeated:

Imagine a world without institutions. it is a world where borders between countries seem to have dissolved, leaving a single, endless landscape over which people travel in search of communities that no longer exist. ...

Nothing is made here: the great factories and businesses that used to exist have all been destroyed or dismantled, as have most of the other buildings. There ar no tools, save what can be dug out of the rubble. There is no food.

Law and order are virtually non-existent, because there is no police force and no judiciary. In some areas there no longer seems to be any clear sense of what is right and what is wrong. People help themselves to whatever they want without regard to ownership--indeed, the sense of ownership itself has largely disappeared.

Oh. 

That was the reality of the "clarity" of winning World War II that led to internal chaos and shifted right into the Cold War--avoiding this path! 

Be careful what you wish for.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

More Complicated Drones Needed

Russia redirects Ukrainian long-range strike drones into NATO countries.

Live by the sword, die by the sword: 

[They thought they were under aerial attack, but] drones buzzing over Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Finland were not launched by an enemy: they were Ukrainian drones hijacked and redirected by Russia towards Nato, opening up a new phase of war.

Clever of the Russians. 

And now Ukraine's cheap long-range strike drones will need to add counter-measures to prevent that, making them more expensive. Pretty soon as the race to attack and protect such drones continues, they won't be so cheap and maybe not so numerous.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: "Missed it by that much" for those unfamiliar with Agent 86.

Shiny Objects and Ninja War

A round of shooting between Iran and Israel obscures the real war being waged quietly to defeat the Iranian mullah regime.

America continues to squeeze the mullah regime in Iran: 

On June 2, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) tightened its controls on Iranian dark-fleet activities by designating Iran's leading crypto trader, Nobitex, and the three next largest firms (Wallex, Bitpin and Ramzinex) operating in Iran. The move will not only complicate Iranian attempts to conduct financial transactions for its dark-fleet oil-trading activities, but also make it harder for the Iranian authorities to receive payments from shipowners seeking to use Iranian channels to enter and leave the Gulf using the so-called Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA).

Iran struck Israel with ballistic missiles and Israel has struck back, providing the shiny kinetic object to distract everybody:

US President Donald Trump earlier on Monday told both Iran and key ally Israel to stop fighting, against the background of reports of an increasingly testy relationship between the US leader and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Iran fired dozens of missiles at Israel overnight and Israel responded by targeting military sites in the Islamic republic, sparking fears the escalation could usher in a new full-scale conflict after the April 8 truce.

Trump can act as the "good cop" to Israel's "bad cop" because the blockade of Iran is the main effort to defeat Iran after the air campaign crippled Iran's military capabilities. And it is biting:

The Islamic Republic of Iran suffered a devastating blow in May, with the American blockade and sanctions biting deep into the regime’s bottom line. 

Sure, Iran acts like it is winning. Why wouldn't it? What else can they do? And we might fall for it and hand them victory! Yet the clock is ticking for Iran in more ways in the financial war:

The Treasury Department will use Iranian assets to help U.S. Gulf allies recover from damage caused by Tehran's regime during the Iran war[.]

My hunch is that America resumes large-scale strikes on Iran only if it looks like the regime might fall to internal resistance, including the Iranian army. I wonder how that Israeli operation is going?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Stands at a Fork in the Road

The Winter War of 2022 seems to hang in the balance of which way the battlefield advantage could flow. Will either side be able to tip things their way to end this period of battlefield uncertainty?

Ukraine is training its troops better. And some Ukrainian corps have gotten much better at combined arms warfare:

[A] number of Ukrainian units began to better integrate infantry, uncrewed systems, artillery, and armor. On the frontlines, they were able to create periods of dominance over the Russians that allowed the rotation of troops and even offensive gains. These combined arms tactics helped Ukrainian forces make advances in Kupyansk in the fall of 2025 and in Huliaipole in the spring of 2026. More important, the Ukrainians maintained a favorable casualty exchange ratio, losing fewer soldiers than the Russians, even when they were on the offensive.

Enough to push the Russians back in some places. Can that be scaled up if more corps (really, what we'd call "divisions") improve? And Ukraine is hampering Russian logistics more effectively to hamper the ability of the Russians to attack or even mass forces on the front. ISW describes this, too:

Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign against Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) is disrupting Russian logistics across the theater, from occupied Luhansk Oblast to Crimea.

On the other side, Russia can't replace its losses. And despite masses of troops in the theater, the troops at the pointy end of the suicidal meat assaults are thinning out as troops thicken in the rear (back to the first article):

Pay as the primary motive for service has also created an accumulation of personnel in Russian units who are eager to avoid combat. 

If the front breaks, those men are primed to run, no? This adds to the Potemkin vibe I have gotten from the Russians since last year:

I have strong doubts that Russia is managing to increase the raw numbers of its troops fighting inside Ukraine to continue its grinding offensive as long as it takes. Does Putin have a Potemkin Invasion Force? Would he even know he only has that?

Indeed, even in 2004 I began to have doubts about Russian troop strength claims, as one link shows.

And of all the reasons I gave to explain why Russia might not have an attack force in Ukraine that Putin thinks is there, it didn't even occur to me that masses of soldiers might have essentially gone AWOL in the rear areas without leaving service. But corruption seems to have done that. 

That's a brittle army that counts on being on the strategic offensive so Ukraine can't seriously exploit the brittleness. Could Ukraine deepen Russia's logistics problem, train more corps and concentrate them, and then exploit the thinner Russian front line with an offensive toward a Crimea garrison weakened by logistics difficulties and lack of combat power?

This ground war is seriously getting weird. Yet it is no declaration of Ukrainian victory. Perhaps the Russians restore their capabilities to attack. Or the Ukrainians may prove to be unable to do the things they need to mount a proper counteroffensive while Russia experiences weakness at the front.

Hell, what if China looks at the situation and decides Russia can be coerced to turn over Far East territory or grant economic and legal concessions within Russian territory for Chinese businesses in exchange for weapons or even the right to recruit in China's Xinjiang province for more cannon fodder?

That's fanciful. But is it impossible? Might Russia be that desperate? Might China be that ruthless? Anything seems possible in a war  that remains ... different. 

As I asked, when the war ends what empire ends, too?

UPDATE (Tuesday): Well that's interesting:

The Russian military command is reportedly withdrawing forces from the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine is rendering defenses in the area increasingly untenable.

First drip of water in the Russian frontline dike? If Ukraine can do that along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River on the Kherson front, it could get really interesting.

UPDATE (Saturday): I heard doubts that Russia is withdrawing from the Kinburn Spit. But the person seems to confuse the larger Kinburn Peninsula that leads to the extreme tip--the spit. So I'm not rejecting the initial report.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The XM30 is Not a Silly Place to Seek

In case you missed it on Substack: NATO Stands Up in the Baltic States

In case you missed it on Substack: Blockade is a Continuation of War By Other Means

In case you missed it on Substack: Putting a Cope Cage Over an Entire Armored Division

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

China's Robotic Wave Assault

American defenders at Guam (and other bases) cannot simply dismiss the threat of massed Chinese aerial drone attacks as fighting in the shade.

China will rely on numbers:

China has been adapting the Iranian Shaheed drone, known as the Sunflower-200, to attack American targets in Guam and the Western Pacific. China is obtaining or making one million OWA/One Way Attack drones for a constant million drone swarm campaign. The objective is to destroy or suppress American /Taiwan/allied military logistics and bases from Guam to the China coast for at least ten weeks throughout a Taiwan invasion. These would crush defenses like a modern Pearl Harbor-style strike, turning bases into what 1940 Philippines ports looked like, by day three.

As I've often observed:

I think people miss the point that China doesn’t have to defeat America to win the war. China has to defeat Taiwan. China only needs to delay the American intervention long enough to beat Taiwan.  

If hammering our bases works to keep America pinned down long enough, China will fling an army across the Taiwan Strait with a constellation of means--including support offshore--to build a bridgehead. 

And even if China doesn't buy enough time to advance on Taipei, just getting a secure bridgehead is a major step to ultimately conquering all of Taiwan.

The air raid sirens are figuratively wailing. Will we act before they are real? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the illustration with Bing.

Aligning America and India

America wants strong partners to hold Eurasia and to strengthen rather than undermine the Western Hemisphere. The Quad gathering in India was a good opportunity to play up the newest member, India.

The American secretary of state visited India:

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Saturday, as the two sides discussed the Middle ‌East, trade, visas, maritime security and energy supplies, while Washington cited progress on efforts to resolve the ‌Iran conflict.

Rubio treated India as a great power:

Rubio said the range of issues discussed underscored that India was "an important strategic partner of the United States, ‌one of our most important strategic partners in the world." 

India seemingly is happy with American rather than Russian energy imports:

Jaishankar said ​the United States had emerged as a reliable energy source for India. 

China, of course, is the driving force to push closer alignment of India and America. 

Along with Japan and Australia, more broadly. Details of the subsequent Quad meeting include:

The Quad partners launched the first ever Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Collaboration (IPMSC) initiative to leverage Quad country maritime surveillance in the Indo-Pacific, enhancing information sharing and maritime domain awareness capacity with an initial focus on the Indian Ocean Region as well as through subject matter expert exchanges and tabletop exercises.

It is interesting that when America was the only super power after the collapse of the USSR, no major realignment of global powers took place to counter America. Allies remained allies. And no, frenemies China and Russia don't count. They were always our enemies. And I can't see them truly allying with each other. Today, rising China pushes powers to align to contain China's ambitions. Russia may come to its senses yet.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the initial article. 

Make Combined Arms Great Again

As diverse forms of counter-UAV systems start to arrive, one can see the decline of the silver bullet suicide FPV drone beginning. The chance for mobile, protected firepower to resume its central role in combined arms warfare is here.

At the risk of appearing to be a dinosaur, huzzah!

[Tanks,] if sufficiently upgraded with advanced networking, unmanned systems, improved active protection, drone launch capability and high-fidelity sensing, main battle tanks are clearly here to stay. There is little to no replacement for the main battle tank when it comes to moving to contact, closing with an enemy, penetrating defenses and “holding” territory in warfare.  

And all armored combat vehicles, of course. Not just tanks.

But tanks can again be the apex predator. Although as we upgrade tanks with the features noted above, we also have to define what else much change on tanks--even if they don't look anything like today's main battle tanks. 

But we have a way to go to end the small drone panty-flinging. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo by Spc. Jensen Guillory - https://www.dvidshub.net/image/6432856/m2-bradley-infantry-fighting-vehicles-northeast-syria, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=101900535

Precision on Demand

Will the Army need nearly as many FPV drones for support for close combat when it has automated precision firepower for its companies?

FPV drones aren't the only way to deliver small warheads with precision on the battlefield:

When responding to a call for fire, mortar crews have to verbally yell out deflection, charge, and elevation before dropping a round in the tube, but a new mortar system being developed for the Army and Marine Corps could automate much of that process. 

The Scorpion Light 81mm mobile mortar system allows crews to use a map-like device to digitally enter the information needed to hit targets, and then the tube is moved into firing position automatically[.]

Once, the Mk. I eyeball and experience provided platoons with well-aimed fire support. I went into discussing how precision was being pushed down the table of organization. Now, mobile and automated precision gets to the company level. Put it in a Black Box of Effects and I'll be happy.

I think long counter-insurgencies interrupted this trend when we faced bigger problems than the need for speed in Army organic fire support for troops in contact. And in Ukraine, FPV drones filled the need in the absence of other capabilities.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Flashy Drones Get the Credit

A SINKEX provides useful information on weapons performance. It is not a tactical exercise. Yet the drone fever continues to burn and can only be quenched with more cowbell!

So drones were used to sink an old warship in multinational exercises last fall:

A U.S. warship used aerial and maritime drones to help sink a decommissioned frigate last fall, Fourth Fleet officials have confirmed, adding that the experience is now shaping how the Navy will go into future battles.

An old, stationary American frigate. That wasn't defending itself. Or maneuvering. Or even moving, it seems. Or conducting damage control. 

Also, the air and sea drones were employed to "help" sink the ship. Again:

The robot formation executed three kinetic strikes against the Simpson as part of live-fire attacks ...

What else helped as part of the UNITAS 25 live-fire attacks? Oh:

The Simpson was thus a floating “magnet” that missiles, guns, and torpedoes could hit and sink. The first “hits” were made by MH-60R and MH-60S helicopters flying from the San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock USS Arlington. There was also an attack helicopter launched from the  Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116).  

So we know drone-carried explosives can  help sink ships. Shocking. Welcome to the anti-ship party, pal. Don't fling panties at a new weapon in the belief that they're a silver bullet for all our military problems.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from this article about the exercise. I don't think it is a photo from the UNITAS 25 exercise, however. 

The Winter War of 2022 Seeks the Holy Grail of Battle-Hardened Soldiers

Is Russia gearing up for a summer offensive? Or is what we see what they've got? I keep hearing that the Russian ground forces are now combat experienced. But I see an exhausted ground force.

The war goes on.

Russia's ground war has faltered:

Russian forces are performing poorly on the battlefield and failing to make operationally significant advances in their ongoing spring-summer 2026 campaign, as Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack and comprehensively strike Russian mid–range targets and deep in the Russian rear.

 Russian war supporters wonder why Russia hits symbolic targets in their air war:

Russian milbloggers heavily criticized the May 24 strikes as expensive but not militarily useful and that the Oreshnik strike against Bila Tserkva did not have a clear militarily significant target. Milbloggers further criticized the strikes as expensive and as not contributing to the Russian war effort, while Russian forces are under-resourced and unable to advance on the frontline. 

The appearance of success with missile strikes may now rely on aerial attacks in the absence of a ground war that provides that. You can only pretend to have taken a town from the Ukrainians so many times before people start to notice.

Recall that there were those who claimed the U.S. Army was "broken" by its campaign in Iraq after it suffered perhaps a thousand KIA per year there. I thought that was ridiculous:

Our Army is stressed. And we need to take actions to counter and eventually relieve that stress. So far, we seem to be doing that successfully. Don't confuse this, as Korb seems to do, with the other problem of being unbalanced--so focused on counter-insurgency that we are slighting conventional warfighting skills. But once Iraq deployments slow after victory, the problems of both stress and balance will be resolved. And we will retain the combat experienced troops for a generation.

Yet Russia with deaths in over four years of combat (nearly 500,000 according to Britain's GCHQ director) a couple orders of magnitude greater than America's 4,500 deaths in Iraq over about 6-1/2 years of combat missions is combat-hardened with hard-won experience against Ukraine? What survivors will make Russian ground forces better in the next war?

Call me skeptical about seeing bloodied and battered Russian ground force elements and thinking "none shall pass" that awesome array of experienced combat power!

Still, Russia's ground forces have power in the positional war of attrition they are optimized to fight now. Fighting that sort of war against Russia would not be ideal. As long as their troops are willing to die in large numbers, of course. Are we just seeing a pause in Russia's advance? Or has Russia lost the ability to attack. If the latter, can Ukraine exploit it before Russian ground forces can recover? 

Ukraine has a six-month window in which to seize the battlefield initiative from Russia and strengthen its hand for peace talks, a senior commander told Reuters, predicting a “turning point” was imminent after more than four years of war. 

Can Russian ground forces recover? Will a much-discussed Russian mobilization make or break the troops in the field?

UPDATE (Monday): The war is shifting. Will a ceasefire by the result?

The mood among Ukrainian commanders, however, has changed. Russian attacks are putting less pressure on their units than they did in previous years. Although drone strikes and shelling remain constant, Russian combat performance is waning. In Kyiv, there is a growing optimism that Ukraine can fight Russia to a cease-fire.

Ukraine’s mood shift is not the result of a radical transformation of how the war is being fought but rather stems from a subtle turn in several trends that together point to a major change in the war’s trajectory. 

Indeed. I did say in March that things seemed ... different ... this year. 

Would Russia use a ceasefire to rearm to continue its bizarre war against Ukraine and NATO beyond it?

Or to pivot to face China's power and potential threat to Russia's Far East and Central Asia influence? 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The NATO Force Model Shrinks

In case you missed it on Substack: Operation Epic Criticism

In case you missed it on Substack: Baby UGV Steps in North Africa

In case you missed it on Substack: To the Shores of Taiwan

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

The Air Force Taunts the Army

The Air Force deigned to provide special forces with dedicated ground support aircraft. The Army can continue to pound sand.

Well that’s nice for special forces: 

The Air Force now has 18 new light attack aircraft that are designed to support special operations forces on the ground, and it expects to receive “a handful more” by October, said Lt. Col. Robert Wilson, of Air Force Special Operations Command, or AFSOC.

The single-engine turboprop OA-1K Skyraider II is “essentially a Swiss Army Knife of airborne capability,” that can fly armed reconnaissance, close air support, and precision strike missions, said Wilson, AFSOC’s armed overwatch requirements branch chief.

But this plane is a flashy distraction from the refusal to have a dedicated close air support plane for the Army's maneuver forces.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

The Thucydides Trap Definitions Section

China's Xi raised the Thucydides Trap during the recent Peking summit as a cautionary tale that should instill American caution. How convenient.

Victor Hanson writes that the Thucydides Trap does not actually describe the situation between Athens and Sparta as a cause of the war. Yet the political scientist who popularized the model relied on other competing rivals to bolster the ancient scenario that he used to name the problem. 

The theory is often talked about in power transition terms. A dominant power may strike a rising power before it can be ascendant. Or a rising power impatient for its anticipated dominance may strike first to accelerate the trend. 

There are problems with the data set, too. An obvious one is the U.S.-Japan rivalry that led to war in 1941. Japan's GDP was about 1/8 America's. Where was the threat or promise of a power shift?

And while there is certainly validity to the general observation about competing powers, the data gives it more credibility as a virtual machine that spits out predictable results with the competition inputs. That is merely the color of scientific rigor.

I think the great distance between America and China prevents each from really going for the throat of each other's homeland. America can't successfully invade vast China and China can't even try to invade vast America. This distance reduces the tipping point urgency to act now.

I suspect Xi was trying to appear near when he knows it is far from overtaking America.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from https://www.hellenic-art.com/hellenipedia/greek-hoplite-phalanx/.

Marines in Australia

Has the Marine presence in northern Australia reached its endpoint? Or is it just the beginning?

Capabilities in Australia: 

Marine Rotational Force-Darwin 26 was recently certified as a Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force, marking the first MRF-D unit to earn the certification since the rotational force was established in 2011.

The Marine presence has come a long way.  

Will it go even farther?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article.

Air Base Defense 101 Must Be Reviewed

Air supremacy is no longer America's God-given right. Our Cold War--let alone our World War II--anti-aircraft capabilities have eroded just in time for missiles and cheap drones to take aim at our air bases. A sense of urgency is in order given our reliance on air power.

Most of the American aircraft lost from Iranian action were drones and weren’t knocked down while on the ground and so completely irrelevant to the author’s point, but yes:

The days of exposed aircraft sitting safely on runways to prosecute operations unimpeded are over. But not nearly enough U.S. military bases at home or abroad are hardened or sheltered to protect our most capable equipment.

I am fully onboard the need for ground-based air defense and more basic air base protection measures.

And grant me that I recognized the base defense problem that small drones would pose. And that was before they were armed with explosives and got longer range. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the last war when we failed to have a sense of urgency about air base defense.

The Eastern Question Reverses Direction

I used to think we have an Erdogan problem. Wait him out and Turkey could return to reliable ally status. I fear he is the symptom of an Islamist problem. And even if that wasn't the case when he was elected, his duration has made this an Islamist problem. And a new Eastern Question.

I believe our government once believed Erdogan would be a great example for Islam by being a "tame" Islamist government still able to align with the West. That is not working out:

Turkey’s accelerating development of ballistic, cruise, and potentially hypersonic missiles should force Washington and Brussels to reconsider whether Ankara is evolving into a stabilizing NATO partner—or a revisionist power armed with increasingly sophisticated strike capabilities.

We thought Turkey could be a good example for Iran, which we also once bizarrely believed could be tamed rather than defeated. Perhaps there was hope that Pakistan, which remains an army barely in control of a country--because of the Islamist-infected population--could be cured, too.

Instead, I fear that either Pakistan and Iran will be potential models for Turkey when its Islamists no longer pretend to be tame as they pursue a return to Ottoman glories. Although they'd be smart to model Iran which always gave hope to Westerners that mythical "moderates" could gain power if only we granted Iran enough concessions.

The Eastern Question may be reversing. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from Britannica.

The Winter War of 2025 Sees Continuity During Change

Observers, including myself, see changes in the Winter War of 2022 that seem to indicate a change in fortunes. But few, including myself, are willing to say the tide has turned. Are we at a turning point like the one that took place in the Iran-Iraq War when Iran lost the ability to pound Iraq? Yet nobody could believe that was happening after that feature of the war had lasted so long?

 

The war goes on. We can see and track the frontline and map the targets of bombing raids. But can we see what is behind that image of clarity about a "transparent" battlefield. War itself is cloaked in fog. Hence "the fog of war." But I see faint outlines through the fog. Are they real or my imagination? 

As I wrote back in March about my impression about the war:

I've often said I try not to let my hopes guide my analysis. It is difficult. But there is an opposite problem. When the situation has been mostly the same for years, it is easy to assume current trends will continue.  ...

Maybe. But things seem ... different ... now.  

This year, Russia continues to attack but they aren't doing the Hulk smash! routine like it used to. Indeed, Ukraine has glimmers of success:

Ukrainian forces appear to be regaining the tactical initiative in different sectors of the frontline in Ukraine. 

But just tactical initiative. No big deal in the strategic picture, right? It isn't really that different.

I recall that the Iran-Iraq War settled into a pattern of Iraq sitting on the defensive and Iran sending masses of men (and boys) to their deaths to overwhelm the Iraqi defenders. Nobody could see a way out from that basic fact even as each side sought salvation by attacking the other side's oil revenue (the Tanker War) and civilians (various Wars of the Cities). And when things seemed ... different ... after Iran in January 1987 launched yet another "final offensive" called Karbala V that attempted to take Basra in southern Iraq, nobody explained what was happening as the end of the pattern:

Perhaps 20,000 Iranians died in the battle. Iraq's casualties were about half of Iran's. Iraq's performance is notable in that Iraq withstood and won the kind of brutal bloodletting that supposedly only Iran could endure. Observers at the time saw only that Iran had launched yet another in a seemingly endless series of big offensives. They speculated about how many more of these attacks Iraq could endure. Actually, Iran broke at Karbala Five. It would be many months before observers began to wonder what was wrong with Iran when no further attacks were begun, yet it was true that the "Islamic Revolution bled to death in Karbala V."

People kept waiting for Iran to use its anger at failing to revive yet more Islamist-fueled offensives. But Iran could not. It would not be fully revealed until Iraq launched a big offensive to push the Iranians out of their major accomplishment of taking the Fao Peninsula in 1986:

While Iran continued to insist that ultimately it would be infantry who would decide the war, Iran had already let the usual season pass without launching a major offensive. This failure began to raise questions about what Iran was doing. One answer came in April 1988 when, after fewer than two days of fighting, Iraq recaptured the Fao peninsula with Operation Ramadan. Iraqi regular troops and Republican Guard forces backed by 2,000 tanks and 600 heavy guns plowed south and struck from the Gulf with a supporting amphibious assault. The Iranians were overwhelmed and showed no spirit of resistance. While it is true that the Iraqis outnumbered the Iranians by 8 to 1 odds, the contrast is amazing between April 1988 and February 1986, when Iranians fought hammer and tong for every square inch of worthless swamp on that peninsula. The day that Iranian infantry could not exact a heavy price for the terrain on which they stood was the day that Iran lost the war. April 18, 1988 was that day.

Has Russia truly faltered? Are we refusing to believe the evidence of our lying eyes?

Consider that Russia and China signed "a joint declaration on the Establishment of a Multipolar World and a New Type of International Relations." I have to ask, is this simply a rote repeat of an old theme? Or a sign that Russia has internally admitted it cannot restore Russia's greatness on the battlefield and so must partner with China? Is this a sign that Russia will end their invasion of Ukraine?

And I wonder if this round of flinging nuclear poo and beating their atomic chest is to project military strength before ending the invasion: 

Russia is using unannounced strategic nuclear exercises to posture strength against Ukraine’s allies and distract from mounting battlefield weaknesses.

Could Russia be trying to shape public perceptions to make it seem as if ending the invasion of Ukraine without conquering Ukraine is irrelevant to Russia's national security because of Russia's nuclear might?  

If these are big picture signs supporting the faltering Russian offensive capability theory, can Ukraine do what Iraq did to attack and expose the eclipse of Russia's offensive capability?

During the Iran-Iraq War, Iraq’s army settled in to a defensive struggle from fortified lines against Iran. Its army evolved to survive in that environment. Iraq found it needed a mobile army to go on offense. So it built that army.

Ukraine has in fact been attacking and slowly gaining ground at both ends of the southern front for the last several months. Analysts have noted that for the first time in a long time Ukraine has gained more ground than Russia has. And Russia is losing so many troops that it can't replace battlefield losses. Are we in a post-Karbala V period of this war?

Will we see an April 1988 event that finally exposes the Russian threat as hollowed out? 

For years I've considered a Ukrainian offensive to Crimea to be the most logical front to seriously harm Russia. Ukrainian military actions could be shaping the battlefield for such an effort.

Was this a test of capabilities away from the southern front?

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a mechanized counterattack in the Borova direction, possibly penetrating up to five kilometers into the Russian defenses. 

Or maybe this is still 1985 and Russia has a lot more offensive life left in them that Putin--overriding some recognition that all is not well--wants to use:

Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to resolve the war on his terms, including fully seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by the end of 2026. 

Maybe I am hoping fluctuations in the pattern are a turning point when in fact they are mere fluctuations in a continuing pattern of Ukraine hanging on as Russia throws body blows on the ground.

How much longer does this "lull" in Russian offensive gains have to go on to suggest things really are different? 

How are Ukraine and Russia judging their offensive and defensive options? 

I can't know. All I can say is that I know things do change--sometimes radically--after we get used to predicting tomorrow will be the same as yesterday. I hope somebody on our side can see deeper into Russia's conditions to tell if things are really ... different. And I hope that Ukraine has been building forces to exploit that turning point if it is taking place.

Perhaps the Russians see the turning point more clearly than we can despite our assessment that the Kremlin is blind to battlefield realities. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Should Canada Join JEF?

In case you missed it on Substack: Controlling the Land ... From the Sea

In case you missed it on Substack: Pearl Harbor as Standard Operating Procedure

In case you missed it on Substack: Are Super Carriers Too Big To Fail

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

I Am the State: North Korea Edition

South Korea has planned precision strikes on North Korean leadership in the absence of its own nuclear deterrent to discourage North Korean nuclear weapons strikes. North Korea has established the death of its leadership as a doomsday trigger to unleash its own nuclear weapons. Hilarity ensues?

Huh:

North Korea has updated its constitution to require a retaliatory nuclear strike if leader Kim Jong Un is assassinated, according to a report. ... 

The revised policy outlines procedures for retaliatory action if North Korea’s leadership is incapacitated or killed.

"If the command-and-control system over the state’s nuclear forces is placed in danger by hostile forces’ attacks … a nuclear strike shall be launched automatically and immediately," the updated provision states.

Well, Kim can certainly modify the state's "constitution" as he sees fit. But I'm not sure if he is thinking this through. 

South Korea has planned to deter North Korea's nukes with precision conventional weapons able to go directly for North Korea's leadership--like Kim. 

And there are even indications that should the North Korean state collapse, special ground units would attempt to secure North Korea's nuclear weapons.

But if North Korea will unleash its nukes during the time between losing their leadership and state collapse, South Korea's non-nuclear plans have a serious flaw. 

So what is the under-and-over on how many years before South Korea has nuclear missiles?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo that I turned into a meme from the initial article.

Lethality is Not a Larger Kill Count

Lethality is not only the ability to kill and break things. It is the ability to use killing to break the enemy.

This cannot be said enough:

A lethal unit applies violence that shatters an enemy’s will to fight. It does so with skill, tempo, and aggression that discourages an adversary from standing before it. Lethality is a fusion of advanced technology, rigorous training, and, most critically, a hardened, aggressive, and offensive mindset embedded in organizational culture.

Killing soldiers and breaking their things for the sake of killing and breaking in greater volume is not the key to victory. That just leads to a high-tech, high-tempo clash of phalanxes.

Firepower is one part of an expanded combined arms battle to restore maneuver--and that's where tanks come in with their mobile, protected firepower--by breaking the enemy's will and capability to fight at the point of attack is what is important:

Tanks are not made obsolete by a more transparent battlefield. The impact of tanks is amplified by secure information that surpasses what the enemy has. But tanks are just one more wonder weapon to be slaughtered if not used in combined operations in the right circumstances and at the right time and place. 

Yet I strongly disagree about the "transparent" battlefield angle. Do we have more ways to see the battlefield? Yes. But there will be countermeasures, in time. Ultimately, surprise is created in the mind of the enemy commander. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Blather, Wince, Repeat.

Belief in communism (which is just the magical end state of socialism, remember) is stronger than most religious faiths. No failure discourages the useful idiots.

Useful idiots are a determined bunch: 

While ruthless in their practice of massive violence against civilian populations, Mao and his henchmen succeeded in duping Western sympathizers into viewing them as liberal democrats and reformers, much as Stalin persuaded influential Americans in the 1930s that Communists were just "liberals in a hurry."

When the crash of expectations arrives and denying failure becomes too much even for them to maintain, the refrain of "It wasn't real socialism!" erupts. Thus begins the new search for the Great Red Hope that will be embraced. Until failure requires another cycle.

Blather, wince, repeat. 

Useful idiots never learn. And cause America repeated foreign policy problems to win the same argument again and again against a new generation of true believers with no sense of history.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. Forgive my raging Ogrephobia to make a point.