Putin pines for Soviet glory days. Putin's threats to use his military give Russia more stature than its status as a regional military power with continents-spanning defense needs justify. Just like Mussolini enjoyed--until he used his military and exposed it for the sham it was.
Russia's military looks marvelous. With a leader eager to use it:
Whether they have been camped out on Ukraine's borders or moving tanks across the vast country, Russia's battle-hardened troops have made the world listen to Vladimir Putin, who wants to redefine European security.
President Putin has made reviving the army one of the top priorities of his 20-year rule.
Putin has made progress in modernizing the Russian military since its poor performance in Georgia in 2008. But modernization is narrowly achieved. And a lot of this technology is smoke and mirrors. Putin can use his military if fighting is brief or limited in scope, against a minor foe.
Indeed, even if Russia's military is adequate to get a victory, a major war could wreck
the army and destroy the progress Russia has made since 2008. And then
we can discuss how much the Russian people are really willing to suffer.
Putin risks a lot actually using Russia's Potemkin Military against Ukraine. That might expose it as much less than the modern and well trained machine with logistics depth that Russian propaganda would have us believe it is.
If Putin thinks he is playing the starring war in the global drama, he is sadly mistaken.
So Russia gains international stature from threatening to use a military that appears to be awesome. But if the military is used and exposed as less than what Russian boasts portray, consequences of reality will be tough to avoid:
I've never assumed that Russia was done fragmenting. They lost their eastern European empire. Then lost the non-Russian provinces of the USSR itself. What might Russia lose if the war Putin began to restore Russian glory and empire actually hastens further fragmentation?
Could Putin become the first president of the Grand Duchy of Moscow?
Russia could suffer a great deal if it loses a major war. Putin might not survive, either. But does Putin know what he really has?
UPDATE: A good piece on Russia's uneven modernization. Note that despite modernized aircraft, new air-to-ground weapons have not kept pace. Note too that the vaunted BTGs are an effort to scrape up useful combat formations from the brigades, as I've often noted. I'll worry more when the Russians dispatch full brigades.
UPDATE: Minor Russian shelling on Donbas front.
UPDATE: News on Friday is that the U.S. government thinks Putin has decided to invade. Define "invade."
It makes no sense to me, and seems downright stupid. But Putin might risk war.
