The Winter War of 2022 Gets Resupplied

We can't finely calibrate the outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Help Ukraine defeat the Russians. Nothing else is safe.

I never rely on assessments like this:

CIA Director William Burns offered a stark warning to lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Thursday: If you don’t approve aid to Ukraine now, Kyiv could lose the war by the end of the year.

We did approve the aid finally. And the first shipment was approved. But this dragged on a long time and saying Ukraine could have possibly avoided defeat until the end of the year was too rosy. Even now, Russia is gaining ground in the face of Ukrainian shortages of equipment and troops. Ukraine has depth to trade space for time in order to preserve their troops. But eventually Ukraine has to go forward like it did in late 2022 but failed to do in 2023.

War is a contest of troops, the government, and civilians. I think assessments like the Ukraine one are too reliant on quantifiable factors like numbers of troops, weapons, and ammunition.

We assessed the Afghanistan government could hold the line for two years after our planned final departure in September 2021.

The Afghan government didn't last until we we departed.

We assessed that Russia would rapidly conquer Ukraine in 2022.

Ukraine held.

So when I see a statement that Ukraine could hold out through this year even without American aid, I doubt the prediction is accurate.

Oh, if the prediction rests on how long Ukraine's weapons and ammunition will last, sure.

But war isn't waged by stockpiles of ammunition and weapons. Troops fight wars. Governments direct and fund them. And civilians support them.

When soldiers have to fight and die for a losing effort, they may decide to flee rather than fight to the end and die in a futile fight.

When government leaders have to think of whether they will live or die when the enemy wins, they may flee or defect in order to survive.

When civilians have to sacrifice their money and family--and perhaps themselves--to resist an enemy that seems like it will win regardless of their sacrifice, they may check out of the war, deciding (rightly or wrongly) flight abroad or even defeat and occupation by the enemy is safer. 

I think our materiel help is arriving in time to avoid Ukraine's defeat this year. The visible proof of America's support bolsters Ukrainian morale, too. But I don't know if this is enough to defeat Russia. Or if we're even trying to do that:

I've noted that issue of defining what our victory should mean. Indeed, I do think we have to be careful about how Russia is defeated. But don't dare assume Russia will lose this war as an excuse to believe we can calibrate Western aid to Ukraine to get the perfect sort of win we need before Ukraine actually defeats Russia. That kind of nuanced effort risks rescuing Russia and giving Putin the chance to win by even marginally tipping the trends of a war on the knife's edge in Russia's favor.

And don't pretend a partition of Ukraine over Ukrainian objections is the path to peace. 

We cannot calculate how long friends--or enemies--can fight as if they are mere machines with known tolerances. Take Vienna.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Weekend Data Dump

Canada is focusing its meager defense efforts: "The most urgent and important task we face is asserting Canada’s sovereignty in the Arctic and northern regions, where the changing physical and geopolitical landscapes have created new threats and vulnerabilities to Canada and Canadians." Not that this isn't vital.

Is America's Iran policy really in ruins? Well, it is clearly and spectacularly failing to turn mullah-run Iran into a responsible regional power. But I don't think the people who run our policy will end the policy.

Russians are using golf cart-style "small vehicles [that] offer little protection for Russian infantry, however, and footage published in recent weeks shows Ukrainian forces extensively targeting small vehicles transporting infantry and supplies with first-person view (FPV) drones." LOL! Wait. What?

It's been over a month: "Five rockets were launched from inside Iraq at a U.S. base inside northeastern Syria, Iraqi security forces announced Sunday night." No American was hurt. Actions were taken. We should always retaliate hard--covertly or openly--and not have a "no harm, no foul" approach.

Sadly, this sounds useful: "Albanian Defense Minister Niko Peleshi has announced that the country’s government aims to relaunch its three dormant weapon and ammunition production facilities amid military conflicts in Europe and the Middle East." Albania has three dormant facilities.

We can't even keep up with peacetime needs: "The two dry docks large enough to accommodate a big deck amphibious warship in San Diego, Calif., are currently occupied, complicating the repairs of USS Boxer (LHD-4)[.]" This is a problem.

The last 100 yards of a FPV drone: "Many FPV UAVs have a backup system for ... completing an attack on a target that has been sighted and the FPV UAV is already headed for." Also, active protection systems can be modified to react to FPV drones.

Yeah, no matter how bad you think Trump is: "Former Attorney General Bill Barr is backing his old boss in the November election despite their very public fallout — because he believes the 'far left' is an even greater threat to the US." The choice we have is the choice we have. Cowboy up. Tip to Instapundit.

A Democratic Congressman reacted to the vote for Ukrainian aid: "Die MAGA die. You lose." The Left swooned over the USSR when Republicans opposed it. Would Democrats support Ukraine if MAGA supporters did, too? Maybe Ukraine should thank MAGA. Via Instapundit.

Wikipedia isn't going broke. But it is funneling money to left-wing causes. Tip to Instapundit.

Keep in mind that radical Marxists are jumping in front of the parade of anti-Israel protests to turn it into an anti-America movement. They want to be the vanguard of the proletariat and don't care what the issue is.

The outpost on Antigua island sounds like sovereign Chinese territory, in practice: "China, its state-owned companies and aligned private businesses are expanding rapidly in the island nation of Antigua and Barbuda and in other Caribbean countries in this strategic region[.]"

I see pro-Hamas leftists in America have gone from denying Hamas raped anybody on October 7, 2023 to enthusiastically pledging 10,000 of those days for Israel. Tip to Instapundit.

I replaced a faucet. It had two more problems than I anticipated. It took twice as long as I hoped. Plus a trip to a store for new pipes that would fit my existing J-pipes. Two hours later I fixed a pooling water problem I'd been prepared to live with--by removing plastic protection from the drain ring. Oops.

I've been warned about the "Arab street" for several decades now. I think that threat is waning. I just wish they worried more about our anger.

Interesting times: "In China, economic fumbling can create desperate citizens and launch the country into uncharted territory. The government is working hard to contain unrest, and it seems to have now adopted a strategy of honesty – a rarity for any government." For the CCP, it's the last resort.

Saw Marie Harf on The Five. As soon as she started speaking I turned off the show. She's awful. I like the show. But will not suffer her presence.

I want America to protect its border and restore rule of law at home. But keeping Russia from dominating or taking Europe is a vital American interest. And letting Russia defeat Ukraine will harm--not help--efforts to restore rule of law at home. We should be able to fix all these issues.

When dealing with autocratic friends, we must choose one: "U.S. officials are starting to accept that their strategy of pressing Niger and other war-battered African countries to break off ties with Moscow and embrace democratic norms is no longer working." We did not choose and got neither objective.

The U.S. isn't too worried about China's H-20 long-range, stealth bomber. China hasn't mastered stealth. But we can't afford to assume China won't be as good as their shiny new weapons portray. 

The U.S. will rush a larger package of assistance to Ukraine when approved, including air defense missiles, artillery ammunition, and armored vehicles such as Bradley Fighting Vehicles.

Can a shrinking Air Force win its objectives in war? Sure. But keeping the weapons in action with maintenance and ammunition until victory is achieved is key in large-scale war. Planes that can't fight sitting on the ground win no wars. On numbers, get back to me when we can sustain what we have.

The backbone of Israel's navy.

Norway steps up: "Norway is working towards nearly doubling their defense spending through 2036, when annual defense spending will almost double its military budget and reach 3 percent of GDP by 2036." I object to saying Norway didn't participate in World War II. It resisted the Nazi invasion. 

We'd control the nukes. Poland would launch them: "Polish authorities are in talks with the United States about the possibility of including the Polish Air Force in NATO’s nuclear sharing program, according to Polish President Andrzej Duda." Other NATO allies have this arrangement. 

Tanks: "The Israel Defense Forces are expanding the number of regular army tank companies in each battalion of the armored corps, a direct result of lessons learned from six months of war in Gaza — and one taken with an eye towards future conflicts." Just in case. 

BS: "For some time, the US Army’s Infantry Brigade Combat Teams – or light ground forces – have lacked a vehicle capable of providing armoured, mobile, direct fires. This enduring gap in the Army’s capability will be filled by the M10 Booker." Abrams don't count? The gap is filled by flaming coffins.

Yeah, a ceasefire in Ukraine won't provide peace any more than any past agreement Russia has signed regarding Ukraine has provided peace. Anything Putin signs will just be time to reload. 

LOL! China's Ministry of State Security considers the 1.4 billion Chinese people to be the threat the agency was designed to infiltrate--not part of a 1.4 billion people effort to defeat foreign agents.

Yeah: "The Corps’ situation is largely self-inflicted, as an intellectual civil war within the Marine Corps has entered its fourth year. At issue is the current leadership’s effort to reduce Marine Corps amphibious attack capabilities in return for anti-ship missiles to fight the Chinese Navy." Why not a focused effort?

ISW thinks Russian success is unlikely if Ukraine gets military aid: "Kremlin mouthpieces are seizing on concerns about a future Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv City to conduct a likely coordinated information operation in an effort to create outsized panic among Ukrainians." 

Britain steps up: "The Prime Minister unveiled £500 million in extra equipment, including air defence missiles, to thwart Russia’s bombardment of power stations." Plus hundreds of armored vehicles, small boats, and small-arms ammunition. Storm Shadow long-range missiles are included.

Via Instapundit, Unintended consequences? What are those? Experts know far less than they admit and don't accept that some knowledge is outside their lane.

The war in Gaza goes on. If Hamas surrendered, the war would end quickly. Until they do I support Israel waging war on actual rules of war rather than imaginary rules that deny Israel the right to fight as hard as it can.

In case you think Europeans haven't stepped up. Our committed aid will shoot up soon. But Europe will have time to catch up:

 

As I've noted: "The prospect of the US restarting ammunition supplies means Ukraine could start using more artillery shells from its stocks, says Justin Crump, of risk intelligence company Sibylline."

Expel students, keep non-students off campus, and make arrests. Problem addressed: "Pro-Palestinian protests continue to rock major American universities on Tuesday, prompting school officials across the country to take extraordinary steps to confront the growing crisis." Until then, officials support hate.

I had high confidence that America would renew military aid to Ukraine. I did not suspect it would take this long. But I never guessed Biden would hold Ukraine hostage in order to keep our southern border open. Stalling aid would have lost Ukraine without winning our border. Keep fighting for our border.

NASA plans to send a flying drone to explore Saturn's moon, Titan. Tip to Instapundit.

Jews are just the easiest first target for the Left's current hate and violence. Note both the red A+Hole Anarchist symbol and the signature American ANSWER Marxists black-on-yellow signs of the usual suspects at a pro-Hamas rally at Columbia University. And now for something completely different:

Small drones threaten us at home and threaten our troops in the field. I'm not sure what to do about defending the vast America from small drones launched from inside America if intelligence and police can't handle it. But I'd like to see fighter drones for our troops, as I proposed in Army.

Sky Shield: "In 2023 a coalition consisting of Germany, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Slovenia and Latvia and the Netherlands agreed to jointly select and purchase enough air defense systems to protect all of them from missile attacks by Russia. Now Switzerland wants to join."

Iran has a anti-UAV weapon, the 358 UAV. Also, "Loitering near airbases, 358 can attack aircraft that are landing or taking off. That fits with my fighter drone idea (in Army) and my airbase ambush idea. Is my anti-ballistic missile drone far behind? Strategypage also notes the 358 threat to helicopters.

EU officials warn of war but European people aren't that concerned: "The question remains: is a European war a genuine possibility, or simply a tactic to garner support for Ukraine?" The healing power of "and" applies. Although it may be the proto-imperial EU tactic to garner support for removing the prefix.

I don't believe that most "rescue pets" are real. There is too much demand from the well off and these pets are too difficult to take care for the concept to be real these days. It's mostly just marketing to support a sense of moral superiority. IMO, of course.

The Prussian 7 Years' War example for Ukraine: "Henry carefully husbanded the lives of his outnumbered troops, dragging out the war until circumstances turned in Prussia’s favor, and then counter-attacking to win a key battle that helped bring peace." I've long said preserve the army. And a counter-attack is needed.

Huh: "General Atomics' Mojave short take-off and landing drone armed with a pair of Dillon Aero DAP-6 Minigun pods shredded several static targets in a first-of-its-kind live-fire demonstration earlier this month." Get back to me when it can shoot down other drones.

Am I the only one to be amused by Angus beef hot dogs? I mean, the scrap parts of Angus cows are supposed to be special?

Sure: "Some scholars now argue that the world is witnessing 'peak China' and that the country’s accelerating decline may lead it to lash out." I don't mean "peak China" literally. Except for population. But the economic surge was not infinite. I don't assume war but China remains powerful. But do read it.

Huh (tip to Instapundit): "White House bobs and weaves through questions on Gaza campus protests[.]" Would it be appropriate to say Biden is giving "dog whistles" to his Jew-hating, pro-Hamas supporters? Asking for a friend.

Via Instapundit, the "twilight of the wonks"? "Impostor syndrome isn’t always a voice of unwarranted self-doubt that you should stifle. Sometimes, it is the voice of God telling you to stand down." I addressed this recently. Narrowly focused expertise is vital. But outside those lanes, unintended consequences ...

We have not driven Russia into China's arms by resisting Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Putin took that step long ago.

Protest Republicans at their homes and in public? That's what democracy looks like, you fascist! "But do the same to Chuck Schumer? You get arrested. He is the good guy, and he deserves peace and quiet." Totally different because shut up. Tip to Instapundit.

President Ron Burgundy in action. Again.

I'm getting a good number of hits from Hong Kong recently. Wonder why? Although with VPNs I don't know if any location data is reliable anymore.

Ouch: "At publishing time, the Columbia administration had put forth plans to load Jewish students onto train cars and transport them to special camps to help them concentrate." It's satire--for now. Tip to Instapundit.

You think you distrust and hate our media enough. You do not. Tip to Instapundit.

Cannon fodder: "Russia has mobilized more troops for duty and now has 470,000 soldiers in Ukraine, compared to the original 360,000. This increase was achieved despite Russian forces suffering over a half a million soldiers killed, disabled, or missing since the invasion of Ukraine began in early 2022."

Hmmm: "Russian dead, missing and wounded too severely for further service are at least six times those of Ukraine’s, while the Russian population only outnumbers Ukraine’s by 3.5 to one." I have no idea if this is accurate. I would like to believe it. But my hope is not evidence.

Starlink.

Iran's Houthi hired gunmen are still out there: "Early Thursday, the U.S. military’s Central Command said a coalition warship shot down [a ballistic] missile likely targeting the MV Yorktown, a U.S.-flagged, owned and operated vessel [.]" As much as I worry about Navy leadership, ship crews still perform.

Better late than never: "Western media reported that senior US officials stated that the United States secretly shipped an unspecified number of ATACMS with a range of roughly 300 kilometers to Ukraine in March 2024." They are used against targets in occupied Crimea and Zaporizhia Oblast.

That's six times the pre-Winter War of 2022 American 155mm shell monthly volume: "'With the supplemental that just thankfully passed last night, we’ll be at 100,000 rounds by next summer,' Lt. Gen. James Mingus said at an event hosted by think-tank CSIS." Europe struggles with expansion.

Yeah: "Putin's invasion of Ukraine sobered Europe west of Ukraine, spurred European rearmament and solidified the collective resolve of their free, intelligent citizens to combat Moscow." Russia has lost already in one sense. The question is whether Ukraine loses, too, and if Russia's defeat is larger.

The statistics are bad and the media eagerly uses it: "News reports fail to take into account that many victims aren’t reporting crimes to the police, especially since the pandemic." Police de-funded, imprisoned released early, arrested aren't prosecuted, criminals aren't arrested, and victims don't report crimes. Voila!

Our rotted Navy ship repair infrastructure. That author brings more subject knowledge (and I noted the Boxer issue in an earlier entry) to the issue I whine about.

We're getting more talk about abandoning Ukraine to Russia to pivot to face China; as well as reassurance that Europe can handle Russia. One, we've already greatly pivoted to Asia. What more do you want? Shall we dig up our military cemeteries? And good Lord, don't trust Europe to defend our interests!

Don't be silly! I see no tiki torches: "The Russian word 'pogrom' refers to an organized effort to displace Jewish populations from the spaces in which they reside by force. That is precisely what we’ve seen on far too many college campuses since the October 7 attack." And now for something completely different:

I never see data on this claim: "The growing number of Russian soldiers deserting the army are an obvious sign of the unpopularity of the war in Ukraine. ... Soldiers in the Russian army or men eligible to be mobilized into the army want the Ukraine War to stop."

The U.S. has allocated $6 billion in contracts to American defense industry to build weapons and ammunition (which collectively are "munitions") for Ukraine. This is a different path than sending our own stuff and replacing them later (which we also do).

Russian weapons are flowing into Africa to stoke chaos: "Eastern Libya is becoming a significant way station into Africa for Russia, and it comes after the U.S. seriously misplayed Haftar." I thought we should have backed Haftar. But we stiff-armed him early in the civil war. Later U.S. outreach was rejected.

Belarus remains divided between Lukashenko on one side and jailed or exiled dissidents on the other. With a large middle unsure of which way to turn, if they should move at all. What happens matters.

Back to the future: "The U.S. Army’s aviation force structure will move away from modular Combat Aviation Brigade designs needed during heel-to-toe rotations in Iraq and Afghanistan and return to a model that tailors those units for specific divisions[.]"

Europeans are panicking over a Trump win in November: "how can the continent’s leaders keep the sharp turn in U.S. foreign policy from driving their countries apart?" But Europeans felt that way about Biden. Any American president is a reason for the proto-imperial European Union to strip away the pesky prefix.

The Army Science Board notes this: "Preparation for eventual land combat is fundamental to defense in the Pacific theater, particularly as China’s interests expand beyond the Western Pacific." That's what I argued in Military Review and supported with this Land Warfare Paper.

And now for something completely different:

I really have my doubts about an economist when the assessment is that Russia's best course economically is to keep the invasion of Ukraine going indefinitely. 

Is Putin beginning a purge that will eventually get rid of Defense Minister Shoigu and his minions?

Second Thomas Shoal: "The Philippines on Saturday denied a Chinese claim that the two countries had reached an agreement over an escalating maritime dispute in the South China Sea, calling the claim propaganda."

Countering UAVs with EAGLS and APKWS in CENTCOM.

As Black Sea trade has become more difficult for Ukraine, it has worked to accelerate rail movement despite the different railroad track gauges in Europe and the Russian-sized gauge Ukraine inherited. As an aside, NATO Baltic states should convert their gauge to European standards as a defense measure.

Still in an American century despite our doubts and divisions. I've mentioned the former and the latter will resolve. I am an optimist at heart. Given long enough time frames. But really? "Economic and political sclerosis, then Brexit, killed the promise of a united and revived Europe in the post-Cold War era." NOPE.

Lockheed Martin has protested Textron Bell's win in the competition: "The U.S. Army’s plan to field its Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft with an initial unit is delayed by one year[.]"

European NATO states are already rebuilding their military strength in reaction to Russia's revived threat. So saying "Europe" must do more really means the European Union. Be careful what you wish for.

Saying Russia doesn't have enough troops to pacify a conquered Ukraine--and so we should not worry about Russia gaining strength from victory--neglects that Russia will recruit Ukrainians. Victors always have allies. This is like Iraq where I frequently despaired that war critics only counted American troops.

Lord, there are American isolationists who still say Georgia provoked Russia's invasion in 2008. On the face of it, that's absurd. And Russia planned it. Georgia was stupid to give Russia a pretext. But Russia would have manufactured one if Georgia had been passive. Also, the territory is lawfully Georgia's.

Now go and emit no more. Because of course he did.

Does a networked army reduce the effect of destroyed/degraded headquarters? "A force in the field without a command post or headquarters can operate on strategic purpose or on their last orders, or it can be organized beneath another battle flag." Huh. If true, how much can span of command expand to cope?

To be fair, a ruler with far more intelligence than Putin displays would have fallen for this diabolically clever Western plan to undermine and weaken Russia. Will Russians wonder why Putin is effing up so badly?

Okay, that's bad if true: "Nearly 30% of children in northern Gaza are showing signs of severe malnutrition," per a senior Biden official. Hamas could end this overnight by surrendering. Sadly, Israelis and Westerners care more about those malnourished children than Hamas. But Egypt does nothing?

Executive summary: "India is largely at peace and prospering while neighboring Pakistan continues struggling with the Islamic terror groups it created and supported for so long, plus the internal corruption and mayhem that policy created." And nukes, of course. Also, it goes into this issue.

The Russian Kh-69 cruise missile. Effective but rare. 

The PLAN is intensifying submarine training and the crews are stressed: "Though stressful on submarine equipment and crews, these changes to training may ultimately yield a more combat-capable submarine fleet operating throughout the western Pacific." That's how you get better.

I'm having another bout of "Jesus, I hate commenting on politics." Despite my concerns over rule of law, media bias, freedom of speech, global warming hysteria, free markets, and woke Peak Stupid issues, I resolve to let others take those on and stay in my national security lanes in Weekend Data Dumps.🤞

Has The AFRICOM Queen's Time Arrived?

Russia scored a win in Africa that aids Russia's migrant war on Europe. Without Niger, we have to retreat to the coast. We could support the fight from the sea with a power projection platform I suggested in 2016.

That's a win for Russia: 

All US soldiers are set to leave Niger, ending their role in the fight against Islamist insurgents.

Military leaders in the West African nation have sought closer ties with Russia since seizing power in a coup last year.

On Friday the US also announced than it had agreed to close down its drone base near Agadez, in the Sahara desert.

Niger is in Africa's Sahel region, which is considered the new global epicentre of the Islamic State group.

The US has relied on Niger as its primary base for monitoring regional jihadist activity.

More Africa chaos means more illegal migrants flooding Europe. Which is a Russian goal to put pressure on Europe over Ukraine:

The most enduring impact of Putin’s Syria gamble will be felt in Europe. The Europeans are being sent a message that if a solution to the migrant flows into Europe is to be found, Russia must have a say in the matter[.]

More chaos in Africa means more need for American and European countries to divert attention and resources away from confronting Russia in Europe in order to stabilize Africa.

AFRICOM (United States Africa Command) is an economy-of-force front, but it still needs force to hold the line. 

And America needs places to put the forces, which is now a problem without Niger:

The decision to expel American forces will likely accelerate contingency plans that would pivot U.S. strategy from trying to defeat al Qaeda and Islamic State where they are strongest to trying to keep militants from infiltrating neighboring countries along the West African coast.

The AFRICOM Queen, a modularized auxiliary cruiser based on a container ship using systems housed in standardized shipping containers, could step in to hold the line:

Let me suggest The AFRICOM Queen (as I advocated in Military Review) as an offshore platform that can move around the continent to quietly reinforce our small footprint from a discreet distance.

In a crisis or in order to carry out a specific mission, reinforcements could quietly stage through that modularized auxiliary cruiser equipped for a power projection mission.

Naturally, this power projection platform wouldn't replace an inland outpost as we had built in Niger:

It could spend a long time on patrol, which is a major advantage for a command that normally only gets Navy ships for a short time while they transit to and from CENTCOM.

Such a platform could move ground and aerial assets around the continent to strike jihadis from unexpected directions; reinforce land sites and locations; or bolster American embassies or consulates under threat.

Mind you, much of Africa is too far from the coasts to make an afloat force relevant in those regions. I'd no more claim an afloat force in the Gulf of Mexico could intervene in Canada.

Of course, the Navy now has a number of ships that could do the job, too. Assuming higher priority theaters don't demand them.

But every little bit helps, eh? And if the line is now drawn at the coastal states, a mobile sea base will work until we can push our counter-terrorism influence inland again.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

The Dog Finally Catches the Car

After decades of telling Germans they need to do more to defend NATO, Germany decided to do more to defend NATO. Strategy hilarity from those complaining about German pacifism ensues.

We should fear German rearmament because Germans might get a whiff of gunpowder and diesel fuel--and like it? 

In the 2020s and 2030s, restoring full military power – at levels of spending greater than of any other European nation – to a united Germany would turn the clock back not to the mid-Cold War, but to the days of Bismarck.

FFS. It was only safe to have Germans armed when it was divided between NATO and the Soviet Union?

I was all on board criticizing Germany for shirking its NATO duties since the Cold War. As I said in frustration about German reticence to arm up:

I keep reading that the Germans hate their militaristic past so much that they don't want to fight.

Let's try applying the clue bat to Germany's collective skull on this issue.

Conquering and setting up death camps under the shield of a powerful military? That's bad. By all means, don't do that.

Having a military capable of fighting death cult enemies or stopping the Russians from moving west? Well, that's a good thing. Try doing that. 

Germany has at least decided it has a role in keeping the Russians out. Good. And after all this time as a functioning democracy, I'll not listen for Nazi--or Bismarckian--"dog whistles" coming from Berlin.

Let's get Germany closer to its Cold War-era military, which was apparently safe. Although the author says that this time it would be different--and dangerous.

Nobody is talking about Wehrmacht-scale militarization. And keep America in NATO if you're still nervous about failing to keep Germany down.

And really, it's going to be a long time before we have to worry:

Germany’s defense minister on Thursday announced a plan to streamline and reorganize the country’s military command as part of efforts to make the armed forces of NATO’s most populous European member “war-capable.”

Up until now the military command has been "civil service-capable." Further:

And although progress is being made with orders for new equipment, the parliamentary commissioner for the military said last month that the Bundeswehr “still has too little of everything.”

And let's not even bother going into (via Instapundit) Germany's economic suicide based on policies that see climate change as a bigger threat than Russia.

Getting skittish before Germany has more than started re-arming is a bit silly. Nobody is talking about Wehrmacht-scale militarization. And keep America in a robust NATO if you're still nervous about the Germans. 

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

Homeland Defense

A ship ramming a bridge closed an American port. If enemies notice the bottlenecks in our power projection capabilities are vulnerable at the very beginning of the long lines of supply to overseas battlefields, we'll have serious problems.

Imagine the harm from an enemy campaign against our ports if this causes problems? 

Two Coast Guard cutters are stuck in the service’s Curtis Bay shipyard, with five others unable to get in for scheduled maintenance due to the Key Bridge collapse.

Much more is prevented from leaving or entering, eh?

Face it, CONUS is no longer a sanctuary:

American production, transportation (railroads, ports, and airfields in particular), and logistics assets in the lower 48 states (CONUS, or the Continental United States) are no longer part of a sanctuary that can project power overseas unhindered by enemy action. Cruise missiles need to be stopped before they confine our military power to North America.

Which makes power projection rather difficult.

You don't need to attack our logistics ships at sea if they can't even set sail. 

UPDATE: The radar can distinguish between ICBM warheads and decoys:

The Missile Defense Agency’s long-awaited Long-Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) will soon begin its transition to full operational status with the US Space Force — a year-long process expected to wrap up in the early 2025, according to an MDA spokesperson.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

When Did Air Defense Become an Exception to Joint Warfare?

Joint air defense shouldn't mean every service contributes air defense missiles to the problem. We have a conceptual bottleneck if we persist in that one-dimensional thinking.

Yes, there's a Patriot missile bottleneck in air defenses. 

As Russian forces have ramped up attacks on Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure in recent weeks, calls for defense systems have grown increasingly desperate, leading Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to tell Western leaders, in a late-March interview with Politico: “Give us the damn Patriots.”

But air defense isn't a one-dimensional problem. 

Long-range Ukrainian surface-to-surface missiles that destroy Russian missile launchers or aircraft on the ground eliminate the need for many Patriots that don't have to shoot down weapons never launched at Ukraine. 

Fighter planes that shoot down enemy planes that launch missiles or glide bombs stop many future strikes.

Anything that slows the volume, rate, and effectiveness of enemy aerial attacks is air defense.

By all means, we need production for capacity for a lot of defense items, including air defense missiles. But don't try to keep up with an accelerating conveyor belt of incoming Russian aerial strikes by focusing only on the supply of defensive missiles.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

Will Iran Make Nukes Out of Dead Gazans?

Are we missing the Iranian nuclear weapons forest because of the Hamas War trees?

Does Iran-backed violence in the Middle East create "a smokescreen behind which Iran can push toward a bomb"? That was my worry early on after the October 7th Hamas invasion. 

Although it doesn't seem to be a deliberate plan it could be the practical result of the Hamas murder and rape spree inside Israel. This has focused the attention of the world on one group of violent people who seemingly prefer poverty and the opportunity to kill Jews over building prosperity in the land they hold and building a future.

As the war in Gaza drags on, why did Iran end its long policy of avoiding direct, open conflict with Israel? Iran's Arab proxies are supposed to be the sword that spares Iran itself. Iran's April missile and suicide drone barrage on Israel ended that limit on what has been a quasi-war in the shadows. 

Israel responded with strikes that demonstrated Israel's reach and what it could target if it chose to get serious. And Israel's strikes weren't batted out of the sky with apparent ease. Iranians might notice that. 

So Iran let Israel open the door to future Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities inside Iran.

Is Iran desperate? I wondered if Hezbollah told Iran that if Iran is so eager to strike Israel big that it can damn well do it itself without Hezbollah taking all the risk. Is that why Iran openly struck Israel directly?

Victor Hanson notes the possibility that Hezbollah took a pass on dying for Iran. Hanson thinks Iran's regime could be on the ropes. I've long hoped Iranians themselves would rid us of those troublesome clerics. But despite rising opposition to the mullah regime, the regime holds on. Is the regime teetering now? Could a hard push send it toppling?

Still, at the other end of explanations as I noted at the start, I wonder if Iran is exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to make the final dash to nuclear weapons. Does Iran's direct attack on Israel reveal the mullahs' confidence rather than desperation?

I've long wondered if Iran would exploit the intense focus on its enrichment status to hide its acquisition of nuclear weapons from North Korea. Iran's rulers are nutballs--not stupid--I argued. If enrichment triggers an Israeli or even an American strike, Iran would want nukes before it can produce the warhead material itself.

North Korea has to get the nukes to Iran, of course. But North Korea could have hidden the nuclear weapons in the massive shipments of ammunition to Russia--including ballistic missiles--that it agreed to send at the end of last year. And Iran's weapons supply line to Russia could conceal the weapons' final delivery stage to Iran.

The only bright side to this speculation is that Iran's barrage demonstrated that its missiles aren't very reliable yet. Yes, the ballistic missiles that failed so often to even launch would be the missiles to carry nuclear weapons (with a Thanks Obama! for that development).

Maybe Iran is in bad shape and going down. That would certainly be good, as Hanson observed:

Without Iran, the Middle East might have had a chance to use its enormous oil and natural gas wealth to lift its 500 million people out of poverty rather than to be mired in constant tribal and religious anti-Israeli, anti-American, and anti-Western terrorism.

Iran is the Gordian Knot linking and exacerbating the region's many problems.

But maybe Iran's more open conflict with Israel indicates Iran is finally getting very near its objective of possessing nuclear weapons.

Rest assured that Biden will see nothing even as it is happening.

Have a super sparkly day.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

The Winter War of 2022 Gets the Big Push

It is interesting that Russia continues to batter forward in the Donbas rather than try to advance north from positions further west to really outflank Ukraine's Donbas defenders. Even after all this time it seems that Russia's logistic system is really only capable of sustaining offensives from positions close to Russia in the east. Can Russia finally win? If it doesn't, what happens?

Russia continues grinding forward in the east as Ukraine struggles with ammunition shortages to hang on. Ukraine is clearly husbanding its Western-equipped units because replacement equipment is not flowing in. But Russia continues to seek battlefield victory.

The war will get louder:

Budanov stated in an April 17 article in the Washington Post that Russia will launch a “big” offensive in June 2024 with the aim of seizing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Budanov also stated that Russian forces will try to make battlefield gains throughout 2024 as part of efforts to influence Western decision-making. Budanov had previously forecasted that a future major Russian offensive would begin in late May or early June 2024, and it is notable that Budanov has now narrowed his forecast to June and identified the likely aim of the Russian offensive. Previous major Russian offensive efforts have similarly aimed to seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

It seems odd that Russia persists in the east when a drive north from further west might unhinge Ukraine's defensive lines. Does Russia focus on attacks in the east because of the Dnieper River and new fortifications line make the western-most parts of their line a better place to hold with fewer troops? Or is Russia unable to sustain a logistics effort there? 

On the other hand, attempting to take Kharkiv makes sense for Russia. Foreign Minister Lavrov is the first senior Russian to claim that is an objective for the 2024 offensive. But who knows if this is a bluff. As ISW notes, it would take a lot of resources to launch a drive on the large city.

And there's this plan to generate the big push:

While the Kremlin is struggling to expand capacity and to develop modern arms that could improve its army’s battlefield performance, it has capitalized on its overwhelming advantage in numbers of soldiers, its ability to arm them with old but reliable weaponry and a willingness to endure heavy casualties.

Russia doesn't really have an overwhelming number of soldiers as much as it has an overwhelming advantage in replacing dead soldiers. And while simple weapons are better for--and necessary for--poorly trained troops, that also means there will be heavier Russian casualties.

Even with the hiccup in American military aid (seemingly about to be revived), Russia has been unable to fully exploit that to inflict a killing blow. The question now is whether Ukraine can rearm and resupply in time to meet the Russian offensive. But if they do, Russian casualties will be even higher.

If Ukraine wins the race and holds the line, inflicting even more losses on Russia, what happens? Can Ukraine attack in the west across the river on the Kherson front or finally figure out how to push through Russia's defensive belt? Or will Ukraine, too, have to focus on the east despite Russia's troops, logistics infrastructure, and fortifications there?

Or does everybody just punch their ticket for 2025?

FFS, how much longer will Russians send their men to die for Putin in Ukraine? "Russia's military death toll in Ukraine has now passed the 50,000 mark, the BBC can confirm." That's just confirmed deaths in a country that hides its losses in a firehose of falsehood.

UPDATE (Monday): Did Moscow really think this taunt through? 

The Kremlin warned that American support for Ukraine could turn into a decade-long folly[.]

So the Kremlin is telling Russians to die in large numbers for eight more years to capture Ukraine? 

UPDATE (Tuesday): Russia appears to be attacking with more than a tactical focus:

Russian offensive operations in these three areas north and northwest of Avdiivka have succeeded in creating three small salients along a frontline that is about seven kilometers long, but each of these three salients is currently too narrow in isolation to serve as meaningful launch points for further ground offensives that would accomplish a broad encirclement of the general area west of Avdiivka. The force composition, density, and general battlefield geometry of this area suggest that Russian forces currently hope to combine the pushes from all three salients to create a wider breach along the Berdychi-Novokalynove line, predominantly using forces of the CMD.

If successful, this might set up Russian forces to be in a position to launch a summer offensive.

American and European aid needs to arrive quickly. Although as I've noted, when Ukraine is confident it will soon receive a flow of Western aid, Ukraine can release ammunition reserves rather than husband them to last as long as possible.

UPDATE (Wednesday): The aid bill was signed and the first big aid package under the new authorization is approved. 

UPDATE (Thursday): Russia, from a couple of podcast sources, has apparently exploited a Ukrainian mistake northwest of Avdiivka to take some serious ground in a salient that in theory is vulnerable to a counter-attack but which Russia seems to be expanding. I noted the report of the attacks in that first Tuesday update.

That's an advantage for Russia of being on the offensive despite heavy losses--Russia can exploit mistakes when Ukraine makes them. Russia can have plenty of weaknesses on their front but Ukraine isn't attacking so we'll never know about them.

UPDATE (Friday): ISW describes that salient offensive:

Russian forces are stabilizing their small salient northwest of Avdiivka and may make further tactical gains that could cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka to a more defensible line. ... Russian forces have committed roughly a reinforced division’s worth of combat power (comprised mainly of four CMD brigades) to the frontline northwest of Avdiivka and appear to be attempting to widen their penetration of the Ukrainian defense in the area following significant advances into Ocheretyne (northwest of Avdiivka) as of April 18. These recent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have been relatively quick but still relatively marginal, with Russian forces advancing at most roughly five kilometers in depth since April 18.

As long as this isn't a sign of Ukrainian morale cracking--which seems unlikely right now--the gain is real but not likely to lead to a bigger victory for Russia.

I would love to see Ukraine release ammunition reserves--knowing American ammo is on the way--to counter-attack that salient to cut it off and destroy the Russian spearheads. That would fulfill my short term wish.

UPDATE (Friday): Of course, a more significant Russian push does exist:

Russian pressure on Chasiv Yar is more significant. Russian forces currently on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar have been intensifying efforts to seize the city since March 2024. The offensive effort to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances as the seizure of the town would likely allow Russian forces to launch subsequent offensive operations against cities that form a significant Ukrainian defensive belt in Donetsk Oblast.

UPDATE (Saturday): More on Ukraine's recent battlefield mistakes. In one sense, that's normal in war. Friction is a bitch. The important and more relevant factor is that Russia has the initiative and so could exploit the mistakes.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Weekend Data Dump

The anti-drone screens being put up to protect armored vehicles from FPV drones in the Winter War of 2022 remind me of the chain-link fence anti-RPG screens put up around (or mounted on) armored vehicles by American troops in Vietnam. (tip):

And here's one set up when stopped (tip):

 

Obama began the Democratic love affair with mullah-run Iran. It's reached insane levels. FFS. Tip to Instapundit.

Well: "So many drones patrol the skies over Ukraine’s front lines — hunting for any signs of movement — that Ukrainian and Russian troops have little ability to move on the battlefield without being spotted, and blown up." Maybe drones are so effective now because there is little movement on the battlefield.

As you might imagine, I stand with tradition: "A report by the Congressional Research Service, a public policy research institute for Congress, found inconsistencies and exceptions to traditional ship-naming protocols stoke public perception that the process is rife with politics."

Somalia remains a clusterf**k, al Shabaab is weaker and reliant on child soldiers, but India provides a happy ending to a pirate attack.

Iran boasts a lot about fake wonder weapons, but the 400 ballistic missiles it sent to Russia will work better than the North Korean missiles: "At one point Russian launched 24 North Korean ballistic missiles at Ukrainian targets but only two of the missiles hit the targets they were aimed at."

I mentioned last week Serbia's decision to buy French fighter planes rather than Russian. This says it is really about diversification plus Russia's faltering exports. Foreign policy shift not cited.

With warning time and defense in depth, Iran's attack on Israel was defeated. Israel had help: "U.S. and British fighter jets, a Patriot missile defense system manned by U.S. troops in Iraq and U.S. destroyers off the coast of Israel, each ready to assist." I'd heard the French and Jordanians fired, and the Saudis assisted.

Biden was outraged about October 7, 2023. But: "Washington had conveyed to Tehran via Ankara that any action it took had to be 'within certain limits.'" So 1,200 on the rape and murder invasion were too many. Now we're negotiating with Iran about how many dead Jews in a day is okay. Tip to PJ Media.

The rise of leftist anti-Semitism in California. Much as OJ Simpson said he'd find the real killers of his two (alleged) victims, the FBI keeps trying to find the real anti-Semites in mythical white supremacist conspiracies.

Trump's "hush money" trial began. It's amazing that being blackmailed is now a crime. For some, of course.

Congress refuses to cease borrowing and spending when the media accuses it of heartless granny-killing "cuts". Our willingness to borrow isn't the only factor: "A series of weak auctions for U.S. Treasurys are stoking investors’ concerns that markets will struggle to absorb an incoming rush of government debt."

This was not a rehearsal for 80th anniversary D-Day landing reenactments, but is reportedly border security in modern California. Tip to Instapundit.

I just don't understand why their mental health issues have to be my problem. Tip to Instapundit. 

Using CS gas was once legal: "Russian troops are carrying out a systematic campaign of illegal chemical attacks against Ukrainian soldiers, according to a Telegraph investigation." But it is illegal now. CS isn't itself directly lethal in most cases, but it can get you killed. 

The Netherlands steps up: "The Netherlands will provide Ukraine with €4 billion (US $4.25 billion) in military aid in the 2024-2026 period, the Dutch government said in a spring budget update on April 15."

First combat use of SM-3: "Carney and Arleigh Burke have versions of the Aegis combat system that were modified to track and target ballistic missiles. The SPY-1D radar on the destroyers cues the SM-3 to attack the ballistic missile."

Another European navy displays problems: "Belgium postponed the deployment of the frigate Louise-Marie to the Red Sea for “an indefinite period of time” after the vessel failed a number of technical tests during training[.]" First the Danes and Germans. Now the Belgians.

CENTCOM: "The suicide bombing at the Kabul airport that killed U.S. troops and Afghans in August 2021 was not preventable[.]" Missing the forest for the Abbey Gate trees.

I imagine their expectations are more reliable than our Navy's: "Norway is replacing six Type 210 class boats with six Type 212CD submarines that will all be delivered by the mid-2030s. The first new sub is expected to enter service in 2029."

Their initial force was lost and stockpiles are getting depleted: "Russia may lose its ability to carry out offensive operations in Ukraine by 2025 because of a shortage of armored vehicles." But if Russia wins this year because we don't support Ukraine, that won't matter. 

Talk of the problem of cheap drone swarms requiring expensive defensive systems to defeat leaves aside what should be the solution of carpet bombing the enemy manufacturing facilities. 

Nice? "[Army] soldiers collaborated with Air Force personnel [for] seamless integration of Army and Air Force assets facilitates rapid deployment, enabling forces to respond promptly to global challenges." But without sustainment the Army troops will be dead or prisoners before too long. Army faith is so cute!

Returning the A2/AD favor: "The U.S. Army’s new ground-based launcher, capable of supporting Tomahawk cruise missiles and SM-6 [missiles], appeared for the first time in the Indo-Pacific in a deployment to the Northern Philippines for military drills."

Sounds about right: "While virtually everything that Biden has touched is falling apart, the Democratic faithful are focused on their election tampering efforts via various corrupt courts."

Yeah (tip to Instapundit): "How quickly the ‘Ceasefire Now!’ lobby turned into frothing warmongers. No sooner had Iran began its criminal bombardment of Israel than these phoney peaceniks were leaping up and down with delight." As it always has been, they have no basis for asserting moral superiority.

Cheap drones in Ukraine: "Those who dare to move day or night under the prying eyes of enemy drones 'are dead immediately,' he said." I still think there are reasons for their impact. Don't forget German soldiers on the Western front in World War II developed "the German glance." History rhymes, I suppose.

Stupid-Americans "chanted in support of the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, a movement that recently executed 13 students for ‘spreading homosexuality’. ..... The activist set is so blinded by hatred for Israel that it is even prepared to turn a blind eye to the crucifixion [or stoning to death] of gays." Via Instapundit.

Okay, now The Science! is just effing with us, right? But I bet true believers will have no problem believing both warnings. Tip to Instapundit.

Doesn't the effort to combat so-called misinformation and disinformation founder on the reality that darned few people change their minds on a subject even on 100% factual information? And the collateral damage of trying to do that is catastrophic to our society and trust in institutions.

Leftists can't read our minds, so they project their own on us. As for me, I'm willing to admit that Trump is among the last I want to lead the Republicans. But he's still better than anyone the Democrats put up. Democrats can't even admit their candidate is ... fading.

Mobilizing the federal government to help Democrats win elections. Rule of law? What rule of law? Tip to Instapundit.

Constellation woes. Is the Navy determined not to efficiently build warships? "According to the Navy, the accumulation of design changes results in only 15% commonality with the base ship. Either the source selection picked the wrong ship, or uncontrolled change mania ruined a good design." FFS. 

Russia has had an understanding with Israel about Israeli military strikes in Syria to fight Iran. Will that end? "Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to show support for Iranian aggression against Israel during a March 16 call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. "

If the Russians aren't busy in Ukraine, this is potentially necessary: "U.S. European Command wants $22 million to replace an aging aeromedical evacuation center at Ramstein Air Base, where 'life-threatening equipment malfunctions' could put troops at risk, according to budget documents."

Training: "The United States and South Korea are carrying out their largest, annual aerial training to “deter, defend and defeat” enemies in and around the Korean Peninsula, according to an Air Force news release."

U.S. European Command wants $22 million to replace an aging aeromedical evacuation center at Ramstein Air Base, where “life-threatening equipment malfunctions” could put troops at risk, according to budget documents.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-04-16/eucom-ramstein-casualty-evacuation-13563753.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
Source - Stars and Stripes

U.S. European Command wants $22 million to replace an aging aeromedical evacuation center at Ramstein Air Base, where “life-threatening equipment malfunctions” could put troops at risk, according to budget documents.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-04-16/eucom-ramstein-casualty-evacuation-13563753.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
Source - Stars and Stripes

U.S. European Command wants $22 million to replace an aging aeromedical evacuation center at Ramstein Air Base, where “life-threatening equipment malfunctions” could put troops at risk, according to budget documents.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-04-16/eucom-ramstein-casualty-evacuation-13563753.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
Source - Stars and Stripes

Switzerland arms up. Which disturbs me. Do they really think we'll let Russia get that far west?

China helps Russia produce weapons. So Chinese can demand submarine technology that Russia still has an edge in. I guess the last favor China granted didn't get all the tech. So Putin bows more. Chinese nukes might be aimed at Russia to liberate Far East territory. That's possible. Can Russia's nukes deter China?

I'm sure the condition is that Israel doesn't strike Iran: "The European Union will prepare to expand its sanctions on Iran in response to Tehran's attack on Israel, EU top diplomat Josep Borrell said on Tuesday after an emergency video conference of the bloc's foreign ministers." 

Huh: "Chinese submarine officers — except for engineers — tend to come from candidates with the lowest college entrance test scores[.]" Chinese submarines aren't yet good enough to hide from Western forces. So why waste the best on them? Or is it a defection fear? Is that why senior officers "babysit?" 

When our governmental institutions are failing as other than progressive advocacy groups, what do you expect? "Public confidence in US institutions, including the government and judiciary, has declined." Don't act like it's our fault we lack confidence. It's the institutions that must change.

The U.S. Senate and the Navy are arguing over who is more responsible for a too-small fleet. While Congress has some blame, the Navy has been on notice for a long time that it needs numbers. 

Yes, the missile defense now routine was once derided as impossible when Reagan proposed it. Democrats derided it as "Star Wars" and then complained when conservatives embraced the name and made it work. That said, ICBMs are a much more difficult challenge.

How can we possibly negotiate any lasting peace settlement with Putin given his many batshit crazy notions about threats to Russia? He'll violate any agreement simply based on his conviction we tricked him or are ourselves plotting to exploit the agreement.

Doesn't this cripple it for fighting other tanks--or even seeing them? "A new example of a Russian 'turtle tank' with a shed-like metal cover on top to help protect against drone attacks, especially by ... first-person view (FPV) kamikaze types, has emerged on the battlefield." Combined arms, people.

Not peace protesters. On the other side. On the bad side.

He speaks of China, Russia, and Iran (Persia): "The ghosts of empire are haunting Eurasia." But don't forget Turkey (Ottoman Empire), jihadis (the Islamic Caliphate), and the proto-imperial European Union, as I recently observed.

If the European Union strips away the pesky prefix of its proto-imperial project, will it be a Brussels bureaucratic dictatorship of grey apparatchiki or green men of a caliphate?

Is an Asia NATO the key to containing China? I have my doubts. Although I don't rule it out that my doubts can be overcome. Especially if a number of states in Asia increase the range of their military reach.

Is China preparing for war? "Developments under way suggest Taiwan will face an existential crisis in single-digit years, most likely in the back half of the 2020s or front half of the 2030s." Hmmm. Is it necessarily for all the marbles? And is there another target?

Wondering if our military is engaged in spreading misinformation and disinformation on behalf of Hamas.

Does Biden have an Iran strategy? The author thinks not. Maybe it's just a furball of hate for Netanyahu and love for mullah-run Iran and Michigan's electoral votes. But there's a strategy--Obama's strategy. Get used to a nuclear-armed, nutball mullah regime with ballistic missiles. That's the path.

As Hamas rapists and murderers are turned into folk hero victims by the Left, recall that they also tried to do that to Saddam's Baathist scum.

Brace yourselves, but this "top priority program" is behind schedule: "The U.S. Navy’s Columbia SSBN (ballistic missile submarine) program is an effort to design and build a new class of twelve SSBNs to replace the Navy’s current force of 14 aging Ohio-class SSBNs." Also, it uses pulse jet propulsion.

You know, I wouldn't be too shocked if Egypt sends ground forces to Yemen to battle the Houthis, financed by the Saudis, to protect income from Red Sea commercial sea traffic through the Suez Canal. Not sure how effective it would be. But Egypt has waged war there before. 

Australia will focus on amphibious warfare: "It’s a strategy that critics argue too little, too late, not boosting spending quickly enough and buying most of its new capabilities more than five years from now." Nothing is ever fast enough or large enough. Starting to keep China far away is good.

Ukraine isn't interested in getting the A-10 as the U.S. Air Force phases it out. But an unnamed country is interested, with speculation pointed at Poland or Romania.

I just wish Biden wasn't so stubborn in refusing to defend our southern border, which led to Republican delays: "Ukraine and Israel both desperately need the military weapons that are being held up by Congress’ failure to pass a funding package for the two countries at war[.]"

Army troops seem to like their new XM7 rifles and XM250 automatic rifles with the XM157 fire control.

From SDI to shooting down Iran's aerial blitz. But a fully layered missile defense does much more. A lot of Iran's ballistic missiles failed on launch or soon thereafter. A true defense doesn't rely on accidents and poor construction.

Normally I'd say that accidents can happen when production is increased: "Explosion at BAE's 155mm artillery shell filling facility, Glascoed, in Wales!" Plus a small fire here. But: "German authorities arrested two men suspected of spying for Russia and membership of a terror group planning acts of sabotage[.]"

Basically, the recruiting pool for concentration camp guards. Tip to Instapundit.

So where's the Biden impeachment over interfering with aid to Ukraine for his own personal goals? Tip to Instapundit.

The title is misleading. The proposal is about reforming contracting regulations to encourage industry to seek Navy shipbuilding and maintenance business in order to expand our shipbuilding capacity. Outside of my lane, but in principle it sounds good to me.

This has been long promised: "Flight tests overseen by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the Air Force have demonstrated safe and effective employment of an autonomous fighter jet enabled by AI, including in 'nose-to-nose' dogfighting against a human F-16 pilot, according to officials."

Yeah: "the question of what happens if Russia prevails in Ukraine is no longer a matter of debate. Russia’s persistence there and the disappointing result of last year’s Ukrainian counteroffensive have convinced many European leaders that Putin will head for their countries next if he is not stopped in Ukraine."

Russian and Chinese pilots and air defense troops shot at Americans during wars in Korea and Vietnam. America isn't likely to send troops to Ukraine. But could NATO states pay ex-military contractors to help with air defenses behind the lines? And F-16s, too. Hey, Russia set the rules.

Defending the status of international waters: "The U.S. 7th Fleet said a Navy P-8A Poseidon flew through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, a day after U.S. and Chinese defense chiefs held their first talks since November 2022 in an effort to reduce regional tensions."

So the French prime minister is going to crack down on rising violence by "right wing" teenagers in schools. It is only in paragraph five that we read he also noted "increased 'Islamist' influences."

It's about time! "SpaceX and Elon Musk are choosing to go to the moon. The moon orbiting and moon landing missions should be within this decade and they will make a permanently manned moonbase as well." When I watched 2001: A Space Odyssey as a child, I saw the year as one of wonders! But no.

The man who oversees Science journals content testified "he and his peers fell short by failing to better explain to the public that science is a 'work in progress'" in regard to Covid 19. But those who said science is a process and not tablets brought down from Mount CDC were called murdering science deniers. Tip.

European pacifism has enabled Putin's invasion of Ukraine. But they want "peace" so nobody notices the blood on their hands. Pacifism and a refusal to believe the West is superior tilt the battlefield to the enemy's favor.

Even New Zealand? " Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon agreed on Thursday to deepen defence cooperation and expressed serious concern over the South China Sea, where the Philippines and China have had maritime run-ins." Huh.

Just in case: "Philippines and US forces will sink a target ship, retake an island and sail in waters facing the South China Sea in joint military drills that will start next week[.]"

But Iran denies it has ever pursued nukes: "The U.S. announced a fresh set of sanctions on Iran targeting the production of unarmed aerial vehicles Thursday as Tehran warned Israel it would review its official stance on nuclear weapons if its atomic facilities were attacked." And Iran has cash from lifted sanctions.

Huh. There will be a federal prosecution on this, right? LOL. Tip to Instapundit.

America should have sunk it or boarded it months ago: "An Iranian ship suspected of providing intelligence to the Houthis is sailing home." It provided targeting information for Houthi missile and drone attacks at sea. Why didn't we do something about it? Oh, right.

Away from the front lines, Ukraine continues to inflict pain on the Russians. But if the main land front falters as Russia hammers Ukraine's army, none of it will matter.

I find it demeaning and insulting to suggest that non-elected Democrats wield the real power in the White House. Accurate. But still demeaning and insulting. If this is what "our democracy" looks like, I want no part of it. I'll take plain democracy without modifiers, please. And with rule of law, of course.

I think Trump should vow to end the cannibal scourge--an Axis of People Eaters--that has plagued our soldiers. Make the media explain why Trump is saying that. Tip to Instapundit.

It's not good: "The Navy said Thursday, April 17, 2024, that its four shipyards would get a “C+” if graded on their ability to repair ships damaged in a sustained military conflict." I fear the self-assessment was inflated to avoid encouraging China.

Okay: "The U.S. Army plans to complete its multidomain task force structure by fiscal 2028[.]" I have concerns if this is just being a Navy auxiliary. But if it is getting long-range firepower to work around the Air Force apparent lack of interest in helping the Army in its core competency, okay!

Big, if true: "Ukraine on Friday said its forces had shot down a Russian Tu-22 bomber mid-air for the first time." Ukraine said it used a modified Soviet-era S-200 (old school SAM-5) missile. Good news even if a mechanical malfunction. But ultimately the war will be determined by the ground forces. 

Old school: "Ukrainian truck-mounted machine guns use thermal scopes and tablet computers to receive target information that allows the vehicles to get into position to shoot down the Russian Shahed cruise missiles with machine gun fire." They destroy 40% of the missiles.

Where the Patriot batteries are. And the missile's back story.

That China-Russia-Iran axis is less than meets the eye: "While concerning to a degree, this axis is, currently, more rhetorical than real." I'd add North Korea to what is at its core a Russia-China issue. But I agree we shouldn't give the axis more credit than it deserves.

FLASH OVERRIDE: I would like to announce that I'm gender static. /NOTHING FOLLOWS/

Our banana republic isn't defined only about weaponization of our laws: "The astronomical rise in the U.S. national debt poses 'significant risks' to the global economy and threatens to continue fueling high inflation, according to a new warning from the International Monetary Fund." Tip to Instapundit.

It was this spectacle that convinced me to never vote for a Democrat at any level of office when before I'd been open to it below the federal level affecting foreign and defense policy. As is well known, rants should be dignified. Tip to Instapundit.

It's a crime that Biden refused to secure our border and let Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan swing in the wind to avoid doing his damn basic duty. To be fair, no matter what Biden promised about securing the border, he wouldn't have done it.

Japan has a light carrier again. China effed up.

When you see those pro-Hamas protesters carrying black-on-yellow signs, be aware that they are scumbag Marxist-Leninists from the International ANSWER organization that never met a thug enemy of America they didn't love. I don't know why black on yellow is ANSWER's signature style, but it is.

"Mean girls" rising? "Epitomized by the congressional 'Squad,' radicalized women are driving the party ever further to the leftist fringe on issues such as embracing Hamas, apocalyptic climate policies, mass illegal immigration, and transgenderism." Hmmm. Seems like a lot of "mean boys," too. Via Instapundit.

Haredi opposition to defending Israel.

I've long suspected leftist eagerness to transform America through open borders would backfire: "Latinos and other immigrants also tend to be largely patriotic in their attitudes, while progressive youth have the least degree of attachment to the nation." Anybody can become an American--except progressives.

Huh: "Combine the problem of sinking cities [almost half of the 82 major cities] with China's massive population, and as the researchers point out in their study, you have a recipe for a human and infrastructural disaster." And a political disaster? Damn shame.

Here's Australia's new defense strategy: "Australia’s strategic environment demands a fundamentally new approach to the defence of Australia and its interests. " I don't see it as a new strategic approach as much as it is cutting other defense functions to focus on it. 

Israel's aerial demonstration over Iran--it really wasn't a strike--knocked out an Iranian air defense radar protecting important Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel's "strike" was only a warning of what Israel could do if Iran repeats its direct attack on Israel. Although I worry that such a warning is too late.

I'll grant this will worry China about Western technology: "China will be re-calibrating its plan to seize Taiwan to take into account lessons learned from Iran’s failed attack on Israel, defence experts say." On the other hand, China might not telegraph its initial salvo as Iran did.

To be clear, unlike the way headlines imply, Argentina is not seeking to join NATO: "Argentina formally requested on Thursday to join NATO as a global partner[.]" A partner is different than an ally.

Oh no: "A military base in Iraq housing a pro-Iranian militia has been damaged in an explosion, killing one and wounding eight, security officials there have said." Anyway ...

Good: "The US Navy’s USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier recently fired RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missiles in the Pacific Ocean in what appears to align with the service’s ongoing effort to improve, refine, upgrade and maintain critical elements of its 'layered ship defenses.'" But are carriers predator or prey?

The U.S. military anticipates re-opening the aid flow: "Many U.S. weapons are already positioned in stores across Europe that could be pulled immediately for Ukraine, the first official said. Some materiel could reach Ukraine in days; others may take weeks." I said I hoped we had the aid locked and loaded.

My, my. The European Union has been punishing Britain for Brexit. But the EU has apparently decided it needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU. Good. That's leverage. Until recently, the EU saw Britain as a bigger enemy than Russia.

Brazil's geopolitical moment? "Brazil’s enduring aspiration for great-power status will receive a significant boost through its leadership of the G20, BRICS and COP conferences in 2024–25." Brazil is the country of the future. And always will be.

Interesting that Democrats may have made a one-time deal to vote to sustain Republican Speaker Johnson for bringing the Ukraine military aid bill up for a House vote. After that it will be up to majority of Republicans to stop the caucus from forming a circular firing squad. Democratic control would be worse.

Pro-Russian Moldovans allege that the Moldova government is "Russophobic." Point of order: It is isn't a phobia when Russia actually is out to get Moldova.

Oh? "Putin recently advocated for migrant labor as the only viable solution for Russia’s ongoing and future labor shortage." Or maybe stop killing off young Russian men sent to conquer Ukraine; and stop driving young Russian men into fleeing abroad to avoid dying in Ukraine? 

Good: "The House of Representatives has finally approved billions of dollars in new US military aid for Ukraine to help combat Russia's invasion." The article finally notes the border issue but does not say that Biden refused to control the border, preferring to let Ukraine dangle rather than protect America directly.

Thanks, Putin: "The Ukraine War created disruptive shortages worldwide." Russian attacks have damaged Ukrainian energy, water, and sewage systems. Russia needs to be defeated.

Iran's proxy network.

Fingers crossed: "Maldivians voted in parliamentary elections Sunday, in a ballot crucial for President Mohamed Muizzu, whose policies are keenly watched by India and China as they vie for influence in the archipelago nation." China wants a longer string of pearls. But we have options, too.

And of course, military aid to Israel and Taiwan was passed by the House when it passed Ukraine aid. But helping Israel defeat Hamas was expected notwithstanding the loud pro-Hamas element in the Democratic Party; as was aid to Taiwan to resist a potential Chinese invasion.

Xi reorganizes cyber, EW, and space assets: "The changes are aimed at better adapting China’s military to the 'informatization' conditions of modern warfare ... The restructuring will lead to 'better deployment” of satellite systems, cyberspace, and when conducting electronic warfare[.]" Is this for political control?

Democrats really undermine the reality that aid to Ukraine is for America's security through Ukraine and not a gift to Ukraine: "House Democrats erupted in cheers and applause when the bill passed, with several lawmakers waving Ukrainian flags on the floor." Democrats confuse me: