Experts delende est. Sometimes you read something that just pulls together a lot of your separate thoughts. In this case, the reign of experts must be ended. Beyond the details provided by the experts in their area of expertise, there be dragons.
Oh, expertise is needed. But that expertise is narrowly focused and cannot be misconstrued as the entire universe, where unintended consequences beyond their area of expertise flourish. But we've done exactly that since World War II. And here we are with bloated statutes and regulations that stifle our freedom and economy with more and more money required to sustain the bloated organizations of experts who stray way outside their lanes, affecting vast swathes of our country outside their narrow responsibilities. It's blowback run amok.
Will America change how institutions work?
The federal government organized itself around expertise on various subject matters. But the inherent weakness of expertise is that it is narrowly focused. It can solve a problem without grasping the broader consequences of the solution.
Yes! It's an echelon above reality. As with many things, initially the problem is that we had few experts making any of the policies or running any of the agencies. So adding experts made things better. But then the experts proliferated and expanded up the chain of command:
Embedding experts into the federal system defined a problem too narrowly and falsely. There was no one with power to step back to see the unintended consequences. There was rarely control over experts who saw only the problem they were trained to solve, rather than the consequences of a plan that needed modification.
And a lawsuit about the impact of fishing regulations has made it to the Supreme Court:
When the U.S. Congress passes a law, an expert is appointed by a senior official to manage it. Over the years, these experts’ rulings were nearly absolute, though they did not always understand the issue. A recent law required that herring fishermen must monitor various aspects of fishing and report them. An expert ruled that the fishermen also have to pay for the monitoring ordered by the expert, though the price of implementing this order would cripple the fishermen’s business.
Do read it all! The impact of the rules amounts to a punishment that only courts can impose. Will the Supreme Court see it that way?
We roam outside the boundaries of an expert's actual known expertise where we get roasted and eaten by unseen dragons. Repeatedly.
Is this the beginning of the dismantling of the tyranny of experts? Experts who in their conceit think they can account for all factors to steer a massive economy--or even "just" the herring fishing industry--with their big brains, tweaking its workings until paradise on Earth is achieved?
I don't know if the court case will start that process. But I think the author, George Friedman, may be on to the key problem that has strangled our country. And even if I don't live to see the end of this tyranny, I suspect this is the path.
[The rest of this post is mostly lot of venting as background for the top-line summary above, recounting the many strings of thought I've had that seem to fit together for appreciating the cited article before my conclusion. Proceed at your own risk.]
As I noted, this fits with a lot of things that keep crossing my mind. But since they are mostly outside of my lane, I've not given them much thought. But much reading about communism for my major area of interest incorporates the conceit of expertise for achieving paradise on Earth lets the issue drift into my lane. So the separate strands of thought remained and kept bubbling up.
Krugman is an example of expertise in one narrow area of economics leading that expert to an assumption that you are expert in all areas:
Long ago I stopped paying attention to Paul Krugman because he's a joke. I'll accept he earned his Nobel Prize in some specific area of economics. But he writes on everything but that narrow subject and clearly knows nothing. Nothing has changed. Tip to Instapundit.
How many times have I complained that experts who know one very narrow area about a country pretend that is the universe of that country? Or think their policy preferences are mandatory based on their narrow expertise? Or pretend to know that opposing an enemy is "falling into their trap"? And I don't exclude myself. Hell, I believed I knew our entire fleet had Harpoon missiles long after they were being phased out. I've been wrong. Or at least evolved to wrong. So I can change my mind. I assume I'm ignorant of most of my wrongness.
Most recently, the government-imposed lockdowns in response to Covid 19 illustrated this problem completely. Shutting down the economy was done in a failed attempt to fight the narrow issue of stopping or at least slowing the spread of the virus.
But people's lives were wrecked even if they never caught the virus because of the lockdowns. Children lost valuable education and socialization. Criminals were released and lockdown violators jailed in a Bizarro World justice system. It got so bad that crime was ignored lest the poor criminal souls catch Covid when incarcerated. Small business owners lost their lives' work. Freedom of speech itself was attacked. Science was perverted into an idol to be worshiped. And much more. But the "experts" on disease--who didn't know what they didn't know--won the federal government game of thrones and decided how our country would be steered.
Or that "understanding" a country and its leaders too often leads to "sympathizing" with them or even "supporting" them? Even brutal jihadi murderers.
I occasionally mention an area is out of my lane. I recognize that I can offer informed views on some areas but opinions on most areas.
And how often have I used the expression "echelon above reality" to to describe experts too far from the real world to understand what is beyond their sight? It's a concept not just for high ranking military officers far from the front.
And how often have I complained that the federal government has too much power and that things would be better if controlling the federal government wasn't so important for policies that reach into every damn neighborhood?
It's a fool's game for conservatives to fight hard to control the ever-expanding federal government. It's better to shrink the federal government to its unique responsibilities and let states and locals--or even the private sector--responsible for what can be done at the local level. Do young people understand why "Don't make a federal case out this" was once an expression that made sense?
Toss in regulatory capture when the employees of a regulated industry join the agency regulating the industry--because who else has as much expertise about the industry!--leading to the regulators becoming shields for the regulated. The taxpayer-funded agency becomes an arm of the industry that protects it from the government and competition. And the industry has more costs passed on to consumers who pay again.
And as a bonus, the regulatory bureaucrats become loyal political allies of the party that is committed to keeping the scam going through one more borrowing binge.
How often have I bridled at the arrogance of journalism majors pretending they are needed to explain the intricacies of issues to the dullards who need their interpretation rather than the mere news of who, what, when, where, and maybe some why if the writer has the background? Mere reporters do that. Journalists are an echelon above such plodding work. I especially let my outrage fly over military matters as I expressed my horror that news organizations let their journalists opine on military matters with subject expertise so low that no fashion reporter could get away with in their lane.
And even the issue of unknown unknowns gets in the act. The experts simply don't know that they don't know a lot even within their area of expertise. And outside of their area of expertise they pretend they know the unknowns that they can predict. When in truth they should just write "Here be dragons."
Hell, let's toss in my old but rarely mentioned on this blog sadness about the emasculation of JCAR, the Joint Committee on Administrative Rules in the Michigan State Legislature. That was one of my areas of responsibility and JCAR was a gauntlet that rules had to pass before the executive branch could enact them. It was described as "nitpickers Heaven". Rules were authorized to implement statutes, so it made sense for the legislature to scrutinize the rules. People and groups affected by the rules could take their issues to JCAR.
Opponents of JCAR said the body was pointless because on paper so few rules were rejected. But the paper trail overlooked the real impact. When a department or agency could see the hangman coming, they withdrew their rules--prior to formal rejection--and addressed the concerns brought up in JCAR. Sadly, a conservative supreme court sided with the people who argued JCAR was an unconstitutional "legislative veto" over an executive function rather than the vital oversight to keep rules consistent with the statutes that authorized their promulgation. And Republican state legislators went along because the governor and legislature were both Republican-controlled. Gosh, that could never change, right?
Mind you, George Friedman has motivation to see something like this coming to validate his theory of government--among other things--organization. So he's biased. I merely hope for something to cut the Gordian Knot that seems to tie together the problems I've felt more than thought about. My bias is not profession-based. But man I want it to be right.
Experts are tools. Use them. They are vital. But let a generalist--an elected one responsible to the people who are affected--who isn't so locked into one narrow area of knowledge make the final decision. At least then there is some hope that common sense will prevail. Or at least accountability after mistakes.
Our country is not a vehicle to be precisely steered by tinkering with isolated cogs and widgets without veering off the road into dragons. Dragons are popping up everywhere. Experts delende est.
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
