I don't blame the Baltic NATO states for not wanting to be on the wrong side of a stalemated front between Russian invaders and NATO allies. But we've seen this play out before and it ends in disaster for the free West. NATO must not make the perfect the enemy of the good, and rush into a kill sack.
These NATO allies are rightly afraid of Russian threats:
The Baltics have been pushing for the NATO tripwire battalion battlegroups in the region to be expanded to combat-ready brigades in each country and for NATO to commit to a permanent presence, and a division ready to deploy to each country to help them defend against an invasion from day one. But the development of regional military plans has been slow and Baltic anxieties climaxed earlier this year when Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas caused a stir by criticizing the alliance’s defense plans. These plans, she said, would “allow [the Baltic states] to be overrun before liberating them after 180 days,” leading to a “complete destruction” of the small coastal countries.
But fear is not always the beginning of wisdom. Do you really think 180 days to liberate the Baltic states is unreasonable given the geography? There is great danger in rushing inadequate forces to hold the Baltic states:
I've argued that it is foolish to try to stop Russia from taking the NATO Baltic states and that a better bet is to plan for a counter-offensive--following the conquest of Kaliningrad* to secure the flank, secure unimpeded access for Poland-bound reinforcements, and as a bargaining chip--to liberate the Russian-occupied territory.
Basically I think that NATO can't really put enough ground combat power in the Baltic states to stop Russia; and if NATO could it would both be seen as a threat to St. Petersburg, prompting even more Russian power threatening NATO there, and be an opportunity to simply attack through Belarus to link up with Russia's Kaliningrad and cut off the best NATO combat units in a Baltic pocket to be reduced at will.
The only way is to counter-attack, destroy the Russian army holding the Baltic states, and thus allow the war to be ended without a Russian threat to destroy NATO units in the Baltic states. Hopefully the status quo ante is restored and no nukes fly.
I understand why the NATO Baltic states are building fortifications on their borders with Russia:
A collection of 600 bunkers are to be built across the borders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to shore up NATO’s eastern flank and deliver a groundbreaking anti-mobility defensive line aimed at preventing any "quick and far-reaching offensive" launched by Russia.
The Baltic NATO states are horrified that NATO doesn't plan to liberate them until 180 days after the Russians invade. The Baltic states should definitely build that defensive line. But acting as if that's the NATO main line of resistance rather than a means to buy time with an "anti-mobility defensive line" for NATO to mobilize and move to the east--and to inflict disproportionate casualties on the invaders to get past the line--is a grave mistake.
The French and their British allies rushed into Belgium to fight the Germans well away from northern France. In World War I the German initial thrust carried through Belgium and put the war into northern, industrialized France with a lot of people and natural resources lost for the duration of the war. The lost capabilities and damage inflicted on French soil for four years was something France did not want to repeat. Thus, the Dyle Plan.
But the Germans didn't repeat the Schlieffen Plan with the addition of tanks and Stukas. The Germans ended up going with the Manstein Plan that let the best Allied armies walk into a kill sack, which cheaply took them out of the war.
On the bright side, in 1940 the Allies did indeed spare France four years of warfare inside France. But complete collapse in weeks surely wasn't what they had in mind instead.
Is that what NATO should replicate now? Losing NATO's best troops in an effort to help Baltic states avoid 180 days of the treatment occupied Ukrainians still endure may mean Russia will hold the territory long enough to dig in and plant minefields.
Which means Baltic State civilians will endure Russian brutality for a lot longer than 180 days.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
