The Dignified Rant: Hamas Chose Poorly

For all the initial talk about how Israel was falling into a Hamas by attacking into Gaza after enduring the October 7th murder, rape, and kidnapping raid, it was Hamas that effed up.

Hamas calculated an entirely different path for this war than the one it is on:

Hamas expected Israel to plead for negotiations to secure the freedom of some 240 Israeli captives. Images from Gaza on Oct. 7 showed Hamas guerrillas ecstatic about the possibility of a massive prisoner swap. But Israel instead unleashed a withering military campaign. Moreover, Hamas did not inform Iran and its regional allies in advance about its plans. It assumed Hezbollah would join the fighting from southern Lebanon and that Iraqi militias in Syria would engage Israel from the Golan Heights. Hezbollah’s unenthusiastic involvement in the war has cost it far more casualties than Israel and did not relieve even the slightest pressure on embattled Hamas. Hamas was left stunned by its allies’ tepid response, having previously believed its attack would transform the Middle East and pave the path toward establishing a Palestinian state. An extraordinary summit of Arab and Islamic countries held last month in Saudi Arabia resulted only in generic statements of support for the Palestinians and demands for the immediate cessation of hostilities. Hamas counted on the outbreak of a third intifada, but Israel’s preemptive raids against West Bank activists ruled out this possibility as well.

That seems spot on.

Very briefly I wondered if Iran was behind this to scuttle improved Saudi-Israel relations.

But I soon demoted that probability and raised the idea that Hamas simply likes killing Jews.

I also thought that Hamas succeeded beyond their hopes to increase Israeli resolve to crush Hamas. That seems more accurate. Hamas wanted to humiliate Israel with a massive hostage trade while Hamas allies showed a solid front to further weaken Israel's image of strength.

I suspected Iran didn't know about the attack despite being a backer of Hamas. Nor did I think Iran was eager to get involved in the war. And I doubted Hezbollah--bloodied in the Syrian multi-war to sustain Assad--was willing to join in the war. Hezbollah, I noted as time went on, was using short-range weapons in a trickle of attacks to look like it was doing something without triggering a big Israeli response.

I also said Arab governments had no love for Hamas and the Palestinians.

I was completely unsure about West Bank reactions. As for Iraqi militias in Syria, they weren't really on my radar as an independent actor. So Iran's view would determine their role.

So yeah, Hamas effed up. Instead of humiliating Israelis, Hamas enraged them.

We'll see how much of a price Hamas pays in the short run. And how determined Israel is to chase down the survivors of their ground campaign no matter where the Hamas terrorists run and no matter how long that pursuit lasts.

UPDATE: Justified:

Israel is pushing back against critics — and even supporters like U.S. President Biden — who say it’s indiscriminately bombing targets inside the Gaza Strip while aiming to destroy Hamas.

There are a lot of Gazan civilian casualties. Even if Hamas is exaggerating them. But quantity of civilian casualties does not have a war crimes quality all its own.

Each attack must be evaluated in the realm of whether that attack is proportional to the military objective sought. Too many people wrongly think proportionality is a measure of total pain each side is "allowed" to feel under the rules of war.

On the other side, using civilians to shield your forces is always a war crime.

UPDATE: America hit Iranian proxies inside Iraq:

The US defence chief said three sites used by Kataib Hezbollah and other groups were hit in response to attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria.

I don't consider this related to the war on Hamas. This is the U.S.-Iran war, in Iraq. Iran is consistent in this war by treating America as an enemy. America is sometimes ... conflicted.

UPDATE: Israel really wants Hezbollah to back off from attacks across the Israel-Lebanon border. Remember, per a UN Security Council resolution following the 2006 war, Hezbollah is not supposed to be near the border. And UN forces are supposed to--but don't--keep Hezbollah out of the border region where they attack Israel.

UPDATE: An ISW update. Is Israel serious about pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River if it won't withdraw on its own (in accordance with a UNSC resolution)?

UPDATE: Israel plans for more war despite apparent American pressure:

In a new year's message, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman said troop deployments were being adjusted to prepare for "prolonged fighting".
Daniel Hagari said some troops - especially reservists - would be withdrawn to allow them to regroup.
"These adaptations are intended to ensure the planning and preparation for continuing the war in 2024," he said.

At some point Israel needs to demobilize reservists to revive economic activity, until the reservists are truly needed.

UPDATE: Ah, there it is:

Israel has withdrawn five IDF brigades from the Gaza Strip, which is consistent with Israeli forces transitioning to a third phase of operations. The third phase will include the end of major combat operations, a “reduction in forces” in the Gaza Strip, the release of reservists, a “transition to targeted raids,” and the establishment of a security buffer zone within the Gaza Strip.

The war will go on in Gaza and globally to hunt down Hamas members.

UPDATE: A good jihadi:

The TV station of Lebanon’s Hezbollah group says top Hamas official Saleh Arouri was killed Tuesday in an explosion in a southern Beirut suburb.

Ending major combat operations in Gaza won't mean Israel's war on Hamas is over.

And if Hezbollah joins the war against Israel because of this, the war will be different than Hezbollah may assume.

UPDATE: Israel nailed a number of Hamas and affiliated leaders.

UPDATE: An ISW update. Note that in the north the Israelis are operating in more and more of the northeastern part of Gaza. I had thought perhaps Israel was going to only take key parts of the urban areas and then use air and ground raids to kill off trapped jihadis. Now it looks like they want to clear it all. Hopefully the remaining defenders are weakened to keep the cost in lives (to Israeli troops and local civilians) low.

UPDATE: Oh?

Hamas's goal, despite all the losses they incur fighting Israel, is to destroy the trust that the Israelis have in their army and leaders.

Not to dismiss a "futurist," but I think that is projection trying to impose logic on the war after Hamas failed in its initial goals; and actually enraged Israelis rather than demoralize them.

We've heard reports that Hamas hoped to drag in Hezbollah, Iran, and the Arab world into the war. And that Hamas had hoped for a massive prisoner exchange with all the hostages they planned to take. Instead they got a full war that Israel wants to be the last war against Hamas.

I imagine Hamas will turn to the traditional measure of victory when Arabs fight Israel: emerging from the rubble after a ceasefire to claim their survival proves a glorious victory. Huzzah.

UPDATE: This just means Israel has failed to kill or capture the fighters, who can be reconstituted with new leadership and command and control:

IDF officials added that they have dismantled Hamas’ “military framework” in the northern Gaza Strip. An Israeli Army Radio defense correspondent reported on January 6 that Israeli forces no longer permanently operate in the entire area of the northern strip and have moved to the border with Israel.

So Hamas will be able to emerge from the rubble, dust themselves off, and proclaim victory for surviving.

Although perhaps it depends on how thoroughly Israel conducts raids into abandoned territory to continue hunting Hamas members.

As an aside, I find it hard to believe that all the Israeli brigades shown operating inside Gaza are actually complete brigades. I think it took the surge to get that many American combat brigades in Iraq.

UPDATE: OPSEC:

Only five Hamas leaders knew the full scope of the October 7 invasion plan, and they only made the final decision to attack on that Saturday the day before, according to a new report in Asharq Al-Awsat.

That's impressive. Does this explain why Israel downplayed what they saw?

Still, the planning and preparation took years. That's risky for giving the Israelis time to discover the plan, but also impressive for dulling reactions (back to the article):

If the report is correct, part of why Israeli intelligence likely discounted the scenario is because it had existed since 2014 and had never been carried out.

Anybody connecting dots accurately would become the boy who cried wolf, no?

Also from that initial article, the unexpected success in my opinion changed the operation from a humiliation of Israel into a horror that caused Israel to resolve to destroy Hamas:

Originally, the report said that Hamas’s plan was just to capture as many soldiers as possible on the border and possibly to get into some villages.
But the report said that Hamas was surprised at how quickly Israeli defenses crumbled and, in real-time, around 90 minutes into the attack, ordered additional waves of forces to take greater advantage of the breach in Israeli security to get into more villages.

We'll see how committed Israel is to finishing the job in the face of global pressure to end their war:

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the Wall Street Journal on January 7 that Israeli forces would shift from the “intense maneuvering phase of the war” to special operations. Gallant cautioned that the conflict “will last for a longer time” as Israel has not abandoned its stated war objectives.

The protests will dwindle as the high-profile strikes give way to quieter raids, I imagine.

UPDATE: Hezbollah struck an Israeli army base with drones. But it was probably Solidarity Theater:

Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem, in a televised speech, said his group did not want to expand the war from Lebanon, "but if Israel expands (it), the response is inevitable to the maximum extent required to deter Israel".

Not the maximum extent required to aid Hamas. Still, watch Hezbollah's capabilities because intent can change quickly.

UPDATE: Israeli forces expand efforts to control ground in the southwest:

Israeli forces, advancing deep into western Khan Younis in Gaza's bloodiest fighting of the new year so far, stormed one hospital and placed another under siege on Monday[.]

This is purportedly the last large-scale operation prior to settling in for hunting Hamas members in a more low-key campaign extending into the indefinite future.

UPDATE: Strategypage provides an overview of the struggle.

UPDATE: If the war is existential and either Israel or Hamas has to be destroyed, I side with Israel. And remember, the war isn't existential for the Gazans used as human shields by Hamas and its orbiting jihadi groups. If the surrender the large-scale military operations will end quickly. Israel doesn't need to destroy Gazans--just jihadi terrorists.

UPDATE: Dig your own grave and you invite this:

The Israeli army said Tuesday it is channelling water into Gaza's tunnels in a bid to destroy the sprawling underground network used by Hamas militants to launch attacks on Israel.

UPDATE: I'd prefer a metric of "destroyed" given I have no idea what "dismantled" means:

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on February 5 that Israeli operations have dismantled 18 of 24 Hamas battalions, rendering them “no longer [functional] as fighting military” organizations.[

Do major combat operations end when Israel hits 24 out of 24?

UPDATE: Israel rescued 2 hostages held by Gaza terrorists in an apartment building:

At 1.49am on Monday, Israeli commandos climbed to the roof of a two-storey building in the middle of Gaza’s sprawling southern city of Rafah.
After entering the block, elite counter-terrorism soldiers descended to the second floor where they attached explosives to the door of an apartment.
The blast instantly killed three Hamas terrorists standing in the corridor on the other side.
Those men were guarding Fernando Marman, 60, and Louis Har, 70, who were kidnapped from their kibbutz of Nir Yitzhak, just across from Gaza, 129 days earlier.

"Critics" are outraged:

It was also an operation which saw yet more Palestinians killed in devastating distraction bombings that allowed the hostages to escape to the safety of a hospital in Israel.

The bombing of that other buildings was because it contained Hamas terrorists who could interfere with the rescue:

As commandos began their raid on the apartment complex they would also have been aware of a high number of Hamas fighters stationed in two other adjacent buildings.

I'm no lawyer, but I think that Hamas crimes of holding hostages and hiding their fighters among civilians meets the requirement of using only the firepower necessary to achieve your lawful military objective.

UPDATE: So it's a official. No Arab state wants to accept Hamas-infected Palestinians:

Egypt is building a massive miles-wide buffer zone and wall along its border with southern Gaza, new satellite images show, as fears grow over Israel’s planned ground offensive in Rafah where more than half of Gaza’s population is sheltering.

UPDATE: Israel's plan to defeat Hamas and jihadi allies has a short-term military objective, a medium-term internal Palestinian security objective, and a long-term objective of deradicalizing Palestinians.

What's missing is a contrast to Israeli control. What alternative doesn't rely on trusting Hamas not to murder and rape again?

UPDATE: I'm torn whether this hurts Israel by sustaining the ability of Hamas to keep resisting; or if this American air drop helps Israel by buying it time to complete the destruction of Hamas: