Will South Korea build nuclear weapons out of fear that America's extended nuclear deterrence will falter if America can be struck, too?
Huh: "Russia’s only aircraft carrier, the Kuznetsov, is expected to return to
service by early 2024 after six years of repairs, refurbishment, and
upgrades." Russia found a solution to a destroyed dry dock it could not fix or replace. God tried to do Russia a favor. But Russia rejected that. The ship carries a lot of firepower in addition to a small aircraft wing.
This Christmas Eve, don't forget to let your little ones track Santa's flight via NORAD.
Wheeled armored vehicles show their limits compared to tracked vehicles in Ukraine. As long as they are on roads and nobody is shooting at them, they're great.
Somalia remains a geographic rather than a political term.
His lips are moving: "Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow has 'no interest' in attacking a NATO member and called U.S. President Joe Biden's warning that Russia would do so if it wins the war in Ukraine 'complete nonsense.'" Wait. What? Russia under Putin has framed NATO as its enemy and justified its invasion of Ukraine on the mythical NATO threat. So yeah, he's lying. And given that Finland was once part of Russia, his claim that all problems with Finland are settled is another lie.
Territorial aggression: "Chinese Maritime Militia vessels swarmed within and around Second Thomas Shoal this week in Beijing’s latest move against the Philippines in the South China Sea." You may recall the Filipino shoal. I say Berlin Airlift (East) if the surface vessels can't get through China's blockade.
That's a stretched-out barrage: "Carney spent a reported nine hours shooting down a drone and missile barrage fired by Houthi areas of Yemen toward Israel on Oct. 19." A friend said he heard these shoot-downs were by Phalanx. Is that true? I worry we are emptying missile magazines. And could a single ship take down an actual massed attack with attackers hitting nearly simultaneously?
As Russia has used its electronic warfare means, NATO is learning a lot. I've long worried--back to the Cold War--we weren't ready to face their capabilities. I hope we act on what we learn.
Toronto decides to honor slave traders with "Sankofa Square" in downtown. Because they are ignorant of how the global slave issue worked. But they'll bathe in the sweet essence of their supposed moral superiority of this act. Tip to Instapundit.
The urge to "do something" didn't work out during the Covid pandemic here. Tip to Instapundit. Back in 2005 I was worried we wouldn't know how to react and hoped it was a warning to prepare: "Been a long time since we had a really lethal pandemic. Our people just don't know how to deal with this once-common situation anymore. We could have difficulty coping."
And now for something completely different:
Don't put faith in futuristic weapons (now with "effects"!) to cleanly win wars: "Conflicts like those in Ukraine and Gaza keep dragging us reluctantly back to an inconvenient reality: the type of soldier described by Gibbon and Ridgway is still the most effective and reliable tool in the American arsenal." I do believe I mentioned this angle before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Shame on the Biden administration: "Joe Biden has shelved plans for a pact with Britain that could have paved the way for a full post-Brexit trade deal."
Are they catching up with America's X-37 experience? "China launched its experimental reusable spacecraft for the third time Thursday while maintaining strict secrecy around the mission."
The Philippines is not the only South China Sea state concerned with Chinese aggression: "Southeast Asian and Japanese leaders will agree to boost "maritime security cooperation", according to a draft statement seen by AFP from a summit that kicked off Saturday against the backdrop of growing tensions in the South China Sea."
That's tragic: "The IDF soldiers who accidentally shot and killed three hostages held by Hamas in Gaza did so despite being ordered not to shoot, a recent investigation by the IDF revealed." Although it is a consequence of Hamas fighters dressed as civilians making it difficult to distinguish combatants from non-combatants. Which is a Hamas violation of the rules of war, of course.
FFS, are we in Bizarro World where Iran isn't afraid of provoking America? "The Biden administration has been reluctant to respond militarily against the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in recent weeks for fear of provoking Iran."
The Ukrainian AQ 400 Scythe suicide drone that can take the fight deep into Russia's border areas. Ukraine hopes to mass produce it.
Paradox-free time travel? Tip to Instapundit.
North Korea is the immediate threat. But I'm sure China is considered: "Today, the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea announce that they have fully activated a real-time DPRK missile warning data sharing mechanism and jointly established a multi-year trilateral exercise plan."
Shame on the Arab states in the region with navies that aren't participating: "Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries to include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity." [LATER: Ah, not all Red Sea escort partners want to be identified.]
The most exposed part of NATO: "Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, hosted a triple signing ceremony today for the bilateral defense cooperation roadmaps with the defense policy directors from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania at the Pentagon."
Maybe. All I can say is that the current approach hasn't worked yet: "The Philippines should revamp its approach in dealing with Beijing’s aggression in the South China Sea as “traditional methods of diplomacy” are being disregarded and current efforts are heading in a “poor direction,” according to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr." Do we really know how long China can keep this up? But I see three alternatives. Build up Filipino forces on their islands--with a lot of concrete. Tiny wars. Or go over the Chinese ships. Or continue on to see if it works. Or capitulate, I suppose. We have an interest in this.
America has one more military aid package for Ukraine until Democrats agree to defend our southern border in order to pave the way for more aid for Ukraine.
Loose sea mines in the Black Sea. And more about sea mines.
Congress wants hypersonic missile defenses sooner. That will increase risks and costs, I imagine. But the need is there.
Interesting to hear from the author of Criminal [In]justice, Raphael Mangual, that raw crime statistics year to year aren't comparable because of the pandemic lockdowns. People just aren't going out--and hence more vulnerable to crime--like they were before the lockdowns. But per-capita crime is up significantly for those out and about. And murder us up even in raw terms. I'd add--and I assume the author did in the book--that when leftists de-criminalize harmful activity you get "better" stats without lower crime.
Russian inflation and high interest rates. How long can Putin insist people believe his claims that all is well?
Are these people morons or do they just think little girls are morons? "Barbie should consider expanding her medical and scientific careers into areas where women and other under-represented groups remain a minority, suggests a study published in the Christmas issue of The BMJ." Or did I miss British medicine curing all disease, thus having time for this folderol? FFS, I had a GI Joe when I was a child. Somehow I was aware that I had career paths other than the Army. I have so little respect for these credentialed morons. Tip to Instapundit.
Volcano in Iceland. Sucks to sit on two tectonic plates heading in different directions.
Whose ethnic cleansing matters?
Turkey won't approve Sweden's NATO membership until America sells F-16s and other NATO countries lift arms embargoes on Turkey. And then there is Hungary.
First U.S. air strike on jihadis in Somalia in nearly four months. The Somalia government doesn't look capable of defeating the jihadis.
Radically improving Marine marksmanship. Interesting. And good. But when the rifle itself provides 95% of the accuracy, tactical skill improvements will be far more important.
Fewer but better: "The Air Force informed lawmakers on Capitol Hill that it plans to
permanently deploy 36 F-15EX Eagle II fighters at Kadena Air Base to
replace the 48 F-15C/Ds previously stationed there[.]" And room for reinforcements, I assume.
Interesting: "About 40% of Russian casualties are dead compared to only 20% of Ukrainian casualties because the Russians in this war get no battlefield medical treatment whatever, though even in World War Two they did have at least minimal battle treatment, largely by dragging wounded off the battlefield (by female soldiers) to medics. "
Also interesting given the drone hype: "Both sides are being forced into mostly drone wars – the Russians for simple lack of manpower and the Ukrainians for lack of artillery shells and rockets, and lack of American support due to Congressional deadlock over funding." They are useful. But I suspect they will become one more useful weapon rather than a silver bullet.
Guam has been a lonely American base and an obvious target for Chinese missiles. So we're building up missile defenses there. As for the lonely part? "The island bases currently being revived include one on Tinian and another in the Philippines. One or more of the Northern Mariana Islands will also become an emergency airbase. These air bases have several uses." Yes!
Going dark isn't just for smugglers: "Merchant ships passing through a vital global trade route are turning off tracking signals in order to avoid attacks." Because of the Houthi.
Interesting: "In considering Israel’s strategy following its conflict with Hamas, it is crucial to recognize the presence of Salafist groups in Palestine, particularly in Gaza. These groups, which align ideologically with global jihadism have become more prominent in the region, especially after Hamas’ political and military victory following 2006." I thought that Israel screwed the pooch in 2006. That war began in Gaza but expanded to and was defined by the fight against Hezbollah.
Ukraine's military wants up to 500,000 more troops to expand their force. The money, weapons, and training to make them more than a Ukrainian version of Russian cannon fodder is key. I assume this is an expansion rather than ongoing replacements for casualties. Will the West help?
Maybe our problem is not (only) TikTok? "[Chinese young adults] have worked really hard. They have been pushed really hard. And to then say, ‘I’m stepping out of this rat race, I’m opting out,’ is a pretty radical decision to be making." If China has this problem, too, Perhaps we give TikTok too much "credit". I have to admit I lean toward the idea that every generation thinks the younger generation can't hack it, forgetting their own youth. Don't assume the kids grow up screwed up: "I stopped worrying about younger generations years ago after I read complaints by the World War I veterans that the youngsters who we now call 'the greatest generation' couldn't possibly have the guts and hardiness to fight Hitler."
Making sure the Air Force has the most diverse casualty list in history. Tip to Instapundit. Where's that purge I want?
I stated my worry about the cost if missiles are being used to shoot down Houthi drones: "The cost of using expensive naval missiles — which can run up to $2.1 million a shot — to destroy unsophisticated Houthi drones — estimated at a few thousand dollars each — is a growing concern, according to three other DOD officials." To be fair, the military isn't saying what the Navy is using. So maybe the Navy wants the Houthi to keep on coming in the same old way. But I agree that the Navy wouldn't want to risk the drones getting too close before shooting at them. After all, the cost comparison has to include the price of letting a cheap Houthi drone damage or sink an expensive destroyer. Also, no fight should be purely defensive. Make the Houthi worry about what we will do to them.
Does urban planning mean designing cities to resist ground attack? And at least inventory and maintain what you have that is militarily useful. Which enhances my concerns expressed in Army magazine about waging wars in urban terrain.
Sweden and Denmark will supply Ukraine with more CV90 infantry fighting vehicles.
Regarding the Democratic effort to twist the law into keeping Trump off the 2024 ballot, remember that democracy dies in ballot darkness.
The multi-year outline to arm Ukraine to defeat Russia should be carried out even if NATO doesn't believe Ukraine can win. Russia's invasion was a logistics alarm about NATO's capacity to wage war. But the time needed to arm Ukraine is the time needed to build capacity to arm and sustain NATO. If Ukraine goes down before NATO can build that capacity, Russia could have a window of opportunity against NATO itself.
This goes a long way to explaining the failure of Ukraine's summer counteroffensive: "The effective span
of control of a brigade for offensive operations is therefore approximately two companies." Far more than lack of air power, this made it impossible to achieve deep penetrations without a collapse of Russian troop morale. And forget about coordinating multiple brigades. There was a lot of hype before the summer counteroffensive. How was this span of control problem not known?
Also, Ukraine will need 1,500 to 2,000 artillery barrels replaced each year.
I'm in favor of Europe being capable of contributing more to the defense of Europe. And I'm not looking for that to withdraw American forces from Europe. But this shows the dilemma: "A strengthened European pillar within NATO can reassure central Europe while involving France and Italy on a major initiative that can equally serve EU defense ambitions in the worst-case scenario of a U.S. disengagement." If Europe contributes more to NATO, that's good. But can that "equally serve" EU defense ambitions when the EU wants to defeat NATO and eject American influence? Will the EU really think of its defense contributions as Plan B in case America walks away from Europe?
I can see value in powering drones with ground-based lasers within your own territory. But for drones going into enemy territory doesn't that just provide a point of attack for enemies to drop drones from the sky? It's like having a high-tech cord the enemy can unplug. And let's not even discuss clouds, fog, or dust storms.
The Marines are making slow progress in overcoming thirty years of local opposition to moving the Marine Futenma air station to a new location on Okinawa.
Thermobaric (fuel air explosive) grenades on small Ukrainian drones.
I hate those AARP commercials that show somebody saying they trust AARP on Social Security notwithstanding their disagreement with other advocacy. So when AARP branches out into social and political issues outside of their core mission, which angers much of their membership pool, AARP's solution is not to cut out the non-core missions. It's to tell people not to pay attention to the social and political advocacy that the membership pool disagrees with. May AARP rot in Hell.
Infantry: "The Army’s newest rifle and automatic rifle are already in the hands of soldiers for testing and will officially field to its first unit in 2024." Now at 6.8mm.
American special forces component organizations.
Starving the beast Lion with increased social spending. Although to be fair, measuring defense spending as a percent of GDP is a measure of the financial burden on the people in the country. It is not a measure of whether defense spending is enough. This post shows a comparison of absolute spending versus portion of GDP. Mind you, Britain--like every other NATO country--doesn't have the ability to sustain large-scale combat operations for long.
At least the Chinese can't pretend their subliminal invasion isn't taking place: "China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi says the country will maintain military pressure on the Philippines amid a dispute over sovereignty in the South China Sea that could involve U.S. forces defending their treaty partner."
Well, the dumbest way to fight them is passively trying to shoot down every missile and drone aimed at ships: "Joe Biden is considering military strikes against Houthi sites in Yemen amid a crisis in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes." I'm tired of our officials worrying about angering Iran when Iran should be very worried about angering us.
Ukrainian troops are older and poorer. They need to draft those who are evading service with money and influence. To be fair, putting older men in service is a strategic decision to spare the youngest men who will have to father the next generation. And this is very biased: "The West’s fading support for Ukraine is darkening the country’s mood, and making front-line combat even more daunting." The blame falls on Republicans, according to the journalist. But Democrats could grease the wheels for Ukraine aid if they'd simply to carry out their responsibility to protect our border. Aid has hit some hiccups but I don't think it is fading.
Forcing Russia to stretch their military resources in the West: "The Defense Cooperation Agreement signed Monday between Washington and Helsinki will give the American forces access to 15 installations — five in the High North near Russia — and permission to store equipment and weapons on Finnish soil." Good.
Ukraine's spooks say that they have shocks in store for Russia. I just hope they can do the obvious--dropping the Kerch Strait bridge.
No! Way! "The head of a Gaza hospital has admitted to being a senior Hamas commander — and detailed how the terror group transformed the medical site into an operational hub that once housed a kidnapped Israeli soldier." That's a war crime that put Gaza civilians at risk.
Post-Soviet Russia became dependent on Western components and machinery for their defense industries. So yes, sanctions hurt Russia despite leakage. So: "For over a decade Russia has been trying to make their economy more efficient and productive. This has been crippled by corruption, economic sanctions, and a shortage of qualified personnel. As a result, growing Russian defense spending produces less and less of what the military needs."
I don't think Congress should waste its time investigating that Harvard president's alleged copying and pasting.
How the Navy could have destroyed the Houthi drone swarm. But it was not "at one time" the 14-drone swarm was shot down. The "swarm" was targeted over a period of nine hours. Let's boast when 14 drones come at a ship in the space of a few minutes and we shoot them down. That's a swarm attack. And we still don't know how the Navy shot down the incoming weapons.
That's great: With a virtualized Aegis system, "the Navy pushed an over-the-air software update to Winston Churchill, much like the updates a cellphone automatically receives." But please tell me the ships can't be hacked in combat. I'm getting Battlestar Galactica nightmares--again.
Good: "Angola said on Thursday it would leave OPEC in a blow to the Saudi-led oil producer group that has sought in recent months to rally support for further output cuts to prop up oil prices." May it be a trend to break up the price-rigging group. Tip to Instapundit.
Those on the left have long liked to say you make peace with enemies--not with friends. So negotiate with enemies! I say enemies may not want peace--just time to reload. But here we are more than a century after North and South made peace and reconciled, and the left wants to retroactively reject an actual peace between warring parties (following victory--the proper method of getting from war to peace).
It's come to this: Democrats took away Biden's "car keys". I would like to formally apologize to the Soviet Union for mocking their serial semi-corpses who rose to the top of the Soviet system in the later years of their teetering empire.
So we don't respond like we're a serious power until someone is killed? Or will a severe wound do? "U.S. troops at a base in western Iraq once again came under rocket fire, military officials said Thursday, adding that the attack did not cause any injuries or damage." I know it was "only" a single 122mm rocket mostly designed to bug us given its inaccuracy. But still ...
Britain's net zero wind power scam. We're going to follow Britain's policy, aren't we?
China may provide their young people with a less destructive TikTok, But China screws up their kids with policy.
I'm hoping that America will reopen the military equipment support early in 2024 and end the major source of Ukrainian gloom: "Not since the opening weeks following Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, when its forces seemed poised to capture the Ukrainian capital and force the government to capitulate, has the outlook for Ukraine's military commanders and its political leadership been so gloomy."
Ukraine is worried: "In Washington, Congress has not moved on U.S. President Joe Biden’s request for $61 billion in aid, stalled by Republican demands for U.S.-Mexico border security funding." I think the more accurate way to phrase this is that the aid is "stalled by Democratic stubborn refusal to defend the U.S.-Mexico border." And NATO won't like a victorious Russia expanding across NATO's eastern border, convinced that if it kills and destroys long enough that NATO's will and capacity to fight will fail. NATO started to take Vienna. FFS, take Vienna.
So this is the most "unproductive Congress in history?" Good. As a rule I feel better when Congress passes fewer bills that always have unintended consequences.
Defiance: "The Philippines will continue asserting its rights in the South China Sea, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said after China warned the nation against causing 'trouble' in disputed waters." And: "The Philippines is planning multilateral patrols with nations like France, India, Canada and the UK next year[.]"
Iran announced a new version of its Frankentank, the Tiam, which "consists of the hull of the upgraded M47M tank, but the turret is from a Chinese Type 69 tank armed with an American 105mm rifled gun." The post shifts between spellings, but "Tiam" appears correct.
I had wrongly assumed the Houthis were using recon drones for targeting information: "Iran’s paramilitary forces are providing real-time intelligence and weaponry, including drones and missiles, to Yemen’s Houthis that the rebels are using to target ships passing through the Red Sea, Western and regional security officials said." Because attack drones need targeting information. Why isn't Iran's "spy ship" providing information a target?
Yes, things are more expensive over the last three years. Tip to Instapundit.
As news speaks of the damage being done to urbanized Gaza and the casualties, remember that a decision to fight for a city is a decision to destroy it. And both Israel and Hamas made the decision to fight for the cities.
With Ukraine's artillery shell shortage, Ukraine's most effective counter-battery efforts are North Korea's sub-standard artillery shells that it sold to Russia.
I'm generally an optimist in the long run time frame. But in the short run I worry: "What makes me sad now is the ongoing game of Civilizational Jenga that our ruling class is playing. One by one, they’re withdrawing the supports of civil society, in a process that will inevitably lead to a collapse." I've often thought that so many of the people playing that game tear away at our civil society for their own selfish gains, confident that society is actually strong enough to allow them to keep those gains. But you can finally tear away too much. I hope we have the wisdom--and justified fear--to turn away from the precipice.
The American steel industry isn't killing itself. Tip to Instapundit.
I'm not against this: "The top U.S. military officer held a virtual meeting with his Chinese counterpart on Thursday, the Pentagon said, in the first such conversation in over a year amid hopes by U.S. officials that it could lead to a broader restoration of ties between the two militaries." But much more is dangerous.
A woman's touch: "In Ukraine Russia is reviving the World War II practice of employing women as snipers and, since this is the 21st Century, UAV operators as well."
So the tribal National Guard is less useful as the regime protection force? "The Saudi armed forces have potential tribal problems as well as a shortage of able volunteers. Despite that they have eventually, after several generations, moved away from an emphasis on tribal affiliation and loyalties to a more nationalistic attitude." That conclusion isn't made, however. Also, naval expansion in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea is now being attempted. Actually, I suspect that over the long run nationalism will undermine Islam as a unifying force across the Islamic world.
In an effort to fight Israel to the last dead Arab, Iran's top nutball calls for volunteers: "Iran's supreme leader on Saturday urged Muslim countries to prevent vital supplies from reaching Israel as the United States accused his country of 'deep involvement' in attacks by Yemeni rebels against international shipping."
The weapons were "inbound" toward the destroyer: "The Navy destroyer Laboon shot down four unmanned aerial vehicles Saturday in the Red Sea that U.S. officials say originated from Iran-allied Houthi rebels in Yemen, according to U.S. Central Command." Laboon then responded to civilian ship distress calls after they were hit.
Iran directly attacked a commercial ship: "A chemical tanker operating in the Indian Ocean was struck by an Iranian attack drone Saturday, a US Department of Defense official said, the seventh Iranian attack on commercial shipping since 2021." It seems like Iran is giving Western states all the excuse they need to hit Iran itself if they choose.
Yes: "As fighting rages in the Middle East and Europe and China looms as a threat, America's dwindling arsenal of high-end munitions emerges as an alarming crisis." The alarm has been blaring for a long time. And my priority is expanding the logistics base rather than force structure that can't be sustained by our existing logistics foundation.
The Army is getting two long-range missiles. Why does the Army need such weapons? Because the Air Force isn't a reliable partner for hitting ground targets.
The military is over-hyping the potential of drones: "But videos of drones smashing into trenches and chasing tanks across open fields don’t tell the full story. Instead, the war in Ukraine shows that the pursuit of technological offsets only produces fleeting advantages before they are negated by battlefield adaptations." Exactly!
It's the Holy Roman Empire of capabilities: "The U.S. Ready Reserve Fleet (RRF) of cargo and fuel ships that move military gear around the world when needed for a conflict is in serious need of an upgrade. The fleet is aging and generally not ready for war." Before we can fight on the battlefield we have to get to the battlefield. And be sustained on that battlefield.
I could be mistaken, but this medical streamlining solution to recruiting woes seems like a bandaid on a sucking chest wound. As I worried:
Putin ordered the military expanded. On paper: "The true organizational state of the Russian Armed Forces has been a “black box” since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The exact number of troops at the Kremlin’s disposal is unclear, and the mix of contracted soldiers, volunteers, and prisoners on the battlefield makes any accurate estimate extremely difficult."
And Merry Christmas! I like the Christmas season. Notwithstanding my
lack of enthusiasm for nonstop Christmas music. I hope you enjoy the
holiday season regardless of what holiday you technically celebrate.
