Ukraine needs a major success against the Kerch Strait bridge to bolster its morale heading into 2024; and to revive Western determination to defeat Russia by supporting Ukraine.
Of course, knocking down the Kerch Strait bridge would be more than a Doolittle Raid that was militarily insignificant in its direct effects. Dropping the bridge would cripple Russian logistics and scare Russian civilians living in Crimea who will no longer have the security of an easy exit if things get bad.
In addition, that operation addresses the other urgent need Ukraine has--demonstrating to the West that its aid is not wasted. Indeed, if the original's effects are repeated, by holding open a chance of Ukrainian victory, more weapons might be sent.
Such an attack would also encourage Ukrainians because the war won't seem futilely stalemated.
And perhaps most importantly, such an attack will break through the Potemkin Special Military Operation facade that Putin has constructed to obscure the reality of a costly war and heavy Russian casualties. Destroying the symbol of Putin's 2014 "little green men" victory in capturing Crimea during the chaos of the Ukraine revolution will be an unambiguous sign of war and failure.
And it might encourage Russia to "do something" that wastes even more men and materiel in futile ground attacks on fortified Ukrainian positions.
A mass drone attack on an air base inside Russia is not that kind of attack.
Ukraine needs to drop the Kerch Strait Bridge.
That might even allow Ukraine to win a war of logistics along the southern Dnieper River to turn their tiny enclaves of essentially spotters for Ukrainian artillery into real bridgeheads with actual bridges and air defenses (SAMs and F-16s) to protect them. And then build up a significant ground force to exploit Russian supply difficulties to push toward Crimea.
UPDATE (Monday): The territorial stalemate continues.
My impression is that Ukraine has more units in reserve as it conserves forces and ammunition until America's support spigot reopens to feed a hungry war.
Russia in contrast seems to commit forces to the front as soon as they are generated to regain the initiative across the theater even if the penny packet attacks simply cause casualties without moving the front much.
UPDATE (Tuesday) Ukraine hit a large Russian amphibious warship:
Ukraine used guided missiles to attack the large landing ship Novocherkassk at Feodosiya in Russian-occupied Crimea on Tuesday morning, the Russian defense ministry said.
That will hinder Russian logistics in southern occupied Ukrainian territory.
UPDATE (Tuesday): While Putin claims the fighting in Ukraine is just a "special military operation" cordoned off from Russia, problems are growing on Russia's home front. But:
Far too many articles about Putin’s war against Ukraine ignore the very real problems on the Russian home front. This gives the Kremlin leader a double victory. It simultaneously helps him persuade Russians that any opposition within the country is marginal, provided that the West is ignoring it, and keeps Western countries from exploiting Russia’s problems to force Moscow to change course in Ukraine and elsewhere.
I see some articles about home front problems. But I admit I tend to view them as "wish" pieces, hoping a near-magical revolt will end Russia's war on Ukraine. I'd rather focus on defeating Russia's army, figuring that would influence a magical rescue while trying for practical effects. I'll ask if American information operations are covertly helping Russians know the cost of Putin's invasion.
UPDATE (Wednesday): Too many Westerners buy the notion Putin is peddling that he wants peace in Ukraine. In reality Putin just wants time to reload. And for the West to get interested in something else.
UPDATE (Wednesday): Are Ukrainian air defenses compelling Russia to shift how they use their aircraft?
Maybe. But if so, Russia will no doubt find a new way to use their air power. And the aerial contest will continue.
UPDATE (Wednesday): Ukraine needs American military aid, in particular. Without it:
Ukraine is no longer able to conduct a counteroffensive. By February or March, it will have difficulty conducting local counterattacks, and by early summer, it will struggle to fend off Russian attacks. At some point, the front will collapse, and Russia will impose a harsh peace.
And as I argued before, the collapse will happen faster than we calculate. Loss of hope will be the key and not calculations of rates of artillery usage.
UPDATE (Wednesday): For now, Russia is grinding down Ukrainians and making small advances. But appears unlikely to be able to exploit any gains for operational successes. Ukraine says they will surrender terrain to maintain their troops. Which is wise.
I assume Russia is suffering heavy casualties with one price of seizing the initiative across the front at lower tactical levels being the inability to form a major reserve force.
UPDATE (Thursday): Uh oh:
With U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.
I mean, if Ukraine can't eject the Russians, that's a Plan B. But don't you dare think Russia doesn't gain advantages with a Plan B.
If this happens, the administration will absolutely pretend that a Western desire for peace is equivalent to Russia's desire for time to reload.
Hell, Russians will hate the West even more for that false peace.
Let's remember the objective of war. And apply it while Ukraine is willing to fight and die against our common enemy.
UPDATE (Thursday): More American ammunition and other supplies for Ukraine.
UPDATE (Friday): Russia's war against Ukraine's people is kicked up for the new winter:
Russia launched 122 missiles and dozens of drones against Ukrainian targets, officials said Friday, killing at least 30 civilians across the country in what an air force official called the biggest aerial barrage of the war.
In other news, Putin's lickspittle hand puppet is trying to cause divisions between Ukraine and its Western supporters:
“Some ‘calls’ begin, whispers, like, why don’t you meet with someone in Europe who would be ready to talk, and talk about Ukraine without Ukraine,” Lavrov told state-owned news organizations RIA Novosti and Rossiya 24, according to a Google translation of the interview transcript shared by the Russian Foreign Ministry.Russia does not want peace. Russia wants victory. Why is this concept unclear in the West?
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E. Although it would not generate an image of a B-25 attacking the Kerch Strait bridge. I had to just say have a twin engine plane fly near a suspension bridge. One image gave me a plane with twin tails as a bonus.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
