Does the West need to provide Russia with a generous "off ramp" to end its war on Ukraine? No. engineering a ceasefire that "saves" Ukraine by giving Russia some of Ukraine will eventually be described as a Western betrayal that denied Russia's glorious military all of Ukraine.
French President Macron is only the most visible proponent in the West of that idea:
Macron, who had been widely criticized for recently declaring that Russia shouldn’t be “humiliated,” doubled down on that notion. He said that the harsh terms imposed on Germany after its loss in World War I had been “a historic mistake” that “lost the peace because [France] wanted to humiliate Germany.” The implication is that if Russia is not treated with leniency now, it will commit far worse crimes in the future, just as Germany did in World War II.
The author rightly points out that this assumes Russia loses the war.
So sure, trying to get Russia to accept a generous face-saving retreat now risks taking steps that undermine the Russian defeat that is assumed. Cart, horse, and relative position, of course.
And the author writes we already saw what Putin did with a Western decision to let Russia keep what it took from Ukraine in 2014 and 2015--another much bigger war this year. Yet this time, for sure?
Seriously?
But let's take the history-based worry at face value. Was Germany humiliated after World War I, paving the way for the next war?
I think that is a completely wrong way to frame that issue, as I explained prior to Russia's invasion of Georgia:
Russia isn't a part of the West because Russia's leaders lately have been a bunch of a-holes. Right now I'm glad we've pushed NATO east as fast as possible. Russia has a lot further to go if it ever rebuilds its military and that alone will deter the Russians. I seriously get an eerie inter-war feel for the whole situation.
You know, the common wisdom is that the Treaty of Versailles was too harsh on Imperial Germany after World War I, which led to the rise of Hitler. When you compare the occupation, dismemberment, and de-Nazification of Germany after 1945 which created a prosperous and democratic allied Germany, you have to conclude that the Allies weren't nearly harsh enough in 1918.
And since 1991, we've treated the Russians with kid gloves, and now they too think they've been betrayed and deny they were really defeated in the Cold War. Now the Russians pretend they were being reasonable and just voluntarily gave up their empire. Of course, occupying Russia and de-Commiefying Moscow was never going to happen. We didn't have much choice at the time since Russia still had lots of working nukes. But the result has been a Russia that increasingly acts like they want to be our enemy.
Don't let the Russian military claim it was "stabbed in the back" by failing to help Ukraine defeat Russia's invasion clearly and drive it back. And if you are worried about "humiliating" Russia by helping Ukraine defeat Russia's invasion, that's all on Putin. He can end that worry by withdrawing from his gains made this year while he still has an army willing to fight and die for him.
Any Western deal that gives Russia a partial win will eventually be portrayed by Russia as a stab in the back denying Russia their deserved complete victory.
That will guarantee another war. Perhaps directly against the West to take away Ukraine's source of weapons and support before turning against Ukraine again.
If you want an "off ramp" for Russia in a policy of defeating Russia's aggression, be prepared to offer phased ending of economic sanctions of Russia as they restore peace with Ukraine. Outside of weapons-related sanctions as long as Russia chooses to be run by the paranoid hostile nutballs that plunged Europe into war.
And in that area, as I've suggested for some time since the 2014 invasion, I'd even explore the idea of leasing Crimea to Russia on a long-term basis. I'm not sure Ukraine wants its pro-Russia (and often actual Russians) people back inside Ukraine. Why not lease the peninsula to Russia, which concedes Ukraine owns it and the mineral rights in the waters off its shores?
As dangerous as defeating Russia may seem, that is the safest outcome in the long run.
NOTE: My latest war coverage is here.
