The China Question

Many writers are saying that the threat from China is so great that we have to abandon Europe and count on Europeans to defend it from Russia. Aside from the question of where the Hell we'd base all the stuff we're supposed to jam into the western Pacific--and Europe is obviously a lesser threat--aren't we assuming too much about China's future power?

China is going to change after the end of the engine of its four decades of high GDP growth:

Deng Xiaoping's economy, which turned subsistence farmers into semi-skilled industrial workers, surely has peaked. The great migration from country to city is slowing, and China's workforce is slowly shrinking.

I've noted that path as I expressed skepticism about the quality of the growth:

Until now, much of China's growth has been based on the "Lewis turning point" that reflects direct inputs of new workers rather than more efficient use of existing workers. Once the direct input slows, wages rise and the comparative production advantage erodes. As I liked to say, take the most efficient peasant and take him from a farm and put him in the most inefficient factory and the GDP he produces goes up.

The author says China will adapt to a smaller workforce with artificial intelligence and automation:

But China is building a new digital economy powered by AI and high-speed broadband, with 2.3 million of the world's 3 million 5G base stations and download speeds double ours. It has automated ports that can empty a container ship in 45 minutes rather than the 48 hours required at our port of Long Beach. It's also automated mines where no worker goes underground, factories controlled by AI, and warehouses in which robots do the sorting and packaging.

Maybe. The author points to Japan and South Korea that adapted to shrinking workforces to move beyond the simple input of farm-to-factory. But the USSR failed to make that leap. Is China more likely to follow the successful nations or the large failed empire?

And I wonder if the educational achievements of China are paper statistics based on measurable inputs rather than results. Is a Communist state really going to do a great job? Maybe. But I have doubts.

On the other hand, this author says China is over as a rising power:

Since Deng Xiaoping began the “reform and opening” of China’s economy in the late 1970s, the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party deliberately resisted the impulse to interfere in the private sector for far longer than most authoritarian regimes have. But under Xi, and especially since the pandemic began, the CCP has reverted toward the authoritarian mean. In China’s case, the virus is not the main cause of the country’s economic long COVID: the chief culprit is the general public’s immune response to extreme intervention, which has produced a less dynamic economy.  

Even before the pandemic, it looked like the China Miracle was ending. So we have to debate the future of China. Again.

I have no idea which is correct. But I'll ask again, in a country the size of a continent, isn't one possible future "all of the above"?

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Whose Mission Command Informs Initiative?

Will Air Force units empowered to fight without waiting for orders from several levels of leadership above them directly support ground units in combat with close air support?

I can't say I oppose an Air Force effort to get away from extensive top-down control and let lower level commanders carry out the commander's intent based on the lower level command's feel for the rapidly evolving situation:

New Air Force doctrine published Monday outlines a vision of decentralized mission command that empowers units to work unilaterally in urgent situations, without waiting for multiple levels of leadership to approve their every move.

It’s an invitation to think outside the box in an organization that thrives on hierarchy and process. And it’s a plea to stop the perfect from being the enemy of the good.

But how does the Army fit into this decentralized style of fighting? Will freedom to act be based on joint force needs? Or will this just be a method for lower levels to carry out Air Force priorities while ignoring Army needs?

Seriously, if the lower-level commanders have an understanding of Air Force missions that put direct support of the Army at a low priority, won't higher-level commands basically know what the combat units will do? Without implicating those commanders in orders that deny Army units timely direct support?

I'd feel better if those lower-level Air Force units included aircraft squadrons dedicated to close air support rather than having close air support just one of many missions for multipurpose squadrons.

The Air Force is very good at close air support. When it wants to do it. When the only game in town was counter-insurgency and ground combat against enemies without the ability to challenge the Air Force for air superiority, the Air Force wanted to carry out close air support. Now? I have my doubts.

As I've said, it's a matter of trust.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Diluting NATO's European Defense Mission is No Way to Defend the West

Is defending Europe so easy that NATO can afford to demote that objective for a host of other real and imaginary threats?

Should we make NATO an alliance focused on defending the West globally? 

Nearly a quarter of the way through the 21st century, member states must ask themselves: what is NATO’s purpose, and what must be done to fulfill it? 

First and foremost, NATO must continue to defend its existing members successfully. However, To do that effectively requires repositioning to deal with threats that NATO’s founders never imagined. In addition to the Russian menace to European states like Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, NATO faces wider global concerns. From digital and economic hybrid warfare tactics to climate crises and terrorism, the dangers to NATO member states are increasingly borderless and not limited to kinetic threats from nation-states. While far from fully established, the “no limits” alliance of China and Russia declared by Xi Jinping is already underway and presents a serious risk. 

To successfully defend the existing alliance against this proliferation of hybrid threats, NATO must open its doors to new members beyond Europe and North America.

One, China and Russia are frenemies. At best.

Even aside from the bait and switch aspect, this NATO expansion of red lines globally is a bad idea. Why on Earth should we want European allies to waste scarce military assets to project small amounts of military power--that will be militarily insignificant in that theater--rather than expanding the military power for missions in and near Europe as a priority? 

European NATO allies being stronger in Europe will give America the confidence to redirect its power projection capabilities--based on confidence we have no major threats in North America--from Europe to Asia.

And don't even get me started on the notion that "climate crises" are a NATO problem. FFS. European states will end up shrinking their military power to develop and field electric airplanes to deploy a small amount of their ill-trained shrunken combat units around the globe. You know this is how it will play out.

I want NATO to be able to defend Europe with America--more focused on Asia--mostly filling in gaps in European NATO capabilities. America can afford to do that. And a stronger European leg of NATO will make it easier.

For the world, NATO standardization can create a European force pool for a coalition of the willing beyond Europe. At most, America could use some European symbolic tripwire forces in Asia to remind China that what happens in Asia doesn't stay in Asia.

Defending Europe is the best thing that NATO--not an EU with "strategic autonomy"--can do to defend the West globally. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 Threatens to Reach 2024

Ukraine seems to be winning slowly. But Russia is buying time to run out the clock on the campaigning season. Can Ukraine crack open the Russian lines before we're looking at preparing Ukraine for a 2024 offensive? And if that happens, can Russia regain the initiative with a new influx of recruits and older weapons? And if that happens, will the West sustain Ukraine's war effort? Will Ukrainian morale falter as victory looks too far away to endure more war?

The human toll on the Ukrainian battlefield: 

"The Russians have lost about 350,000 troops, of whom 100,000 are dead, missing, prisoners or deserters, and Ukrainians casualties are about 200,000 of whom 50,000 are killed, missing and captured." 

This gives me hope that the Ukrainians might crack the Russian defenders: 

"[Ukraine] uses its superiority in weapons, training and leadership so the Ukrainians are defeating the Russians in many smaller battles, where the Ukrainians make sure they have the advantage before attacking. This takes advantage of the poor morale, leadership and training most Russian troops have." 

And: 

"Who is winning is mainly about money and access to lots of modern weapons. The Ukrainians have a big edge here, having received nearly a hundred billion dollars in aid from NATO countries so far." 

I wrote last summer that Russia's larger size than Ukraine (three times the population and nine times the GDP) didn't necessarily mean Russia could out-die and out-produce Ukraine in a long war:

"Like Iran, Russia has a 3:1 advantage in population. But Russian morale as a conqueror, that is clearly not liberating people from Nazis, is not superior. This could break Russia before Ukraine. Just how do we define the transition from the short run to the long run?

What about GDP and defense spending? You'd think Russia clearly has the edge with a 9:1 GDP advantage. 

But Russia is under Western sanctions that will harm Russia's ability to go to war production levels. Russian Soviet-era stockpiles will run low in time--or reach the material and ammo almost more dangerous to Russian users than Ukrainian targets.

And Ukraine is being supplied by the West, which has an immensely greater GDP advantage than Russia's advantage over Ukraine. So you can't just count the value of the arms and services provided to Ukraine when comparing the economic advantage. You'd have to count the research and development and logistics value on Ukraine's side of the ledger that provides the weapons, supplies, and services.

So when you compare the scientific, industrial, and military effort on both sides, is Russia really superior in material?"

Ukraine is starting to penetrate what may be the most formidable Russian defenses around Robotyne. But does Ukraine have enough time before weather and NATO resolve run out? And what political forces are maneuvering inside Russia out of clear sight that might undermine Russia's war effort?

I just don't know who is capable of fighting longer. And if we reach 2024 we will begin to see who falters under the three-year rule that marks the beginning of American public war fatigue in even the most just war. That may affect the Ukrainians and Russians, too, eh?

UPDATE (Saturday): Strategypage: 

One reason why the current Ukrainian offensive in southern Ukraine has been so successful is the poor morale of the few Russian troops still around to defend Russian occupied territory.

They seem overly optimistic. Yes, Ukraine is hollowing out the Russian defenses. This is a success. But Russia is buying time to escape the campaign season with minimal territory losses. Russia could divert troops from the east, where Russia is still attacking, to string the counteroffensive out. And then Russia has another winter to rebuild its ground forces. 

Of course, if a big chunk of Russia's army collapses soon and Ukraine dashes to the Sea of Azov, this will look brilliant. That's been my hope for a while that Russia has been defying. 

Ukraine seems to be expanding its apparent main effort and pushing the Russians back a bit faster the last several weeks. Perhaps this is a sign that the Russians are significantly weakening on the southern front.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

Weekend Data Dump

The reported numbers make no sense in reported Winter War of 2022 casualty figures. Especially with a largely static front where wounded can be pulled out for care relatively easily.

The Army is starting to receive the AMPV replacement for the M-113 APC: "The AMPV costs nearly $4 million each and has protection similar to the M-2 and even greater off-road mobility." There are many variants, including a 120mm mortar and a flatbed version. Oddly, even without a turret it is heavier than a Bradley IFV. Nearly 3,000 are wanted.

And now for something completely different:

Probably shot down by a Ukrainian Patriot missile: "A Russian robotic spacecraft that was headed to the lunar surface has crashed into the moon, Russia’s space agency said on Sunday[.]" Tip to Instapundit.

More evidence that Saudi Arabia is happy to sell China oil and use their help to calm down the Gulf, but aren't flipping away from the West: "Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to turn the country into the Gulf’s manufacturing powerhouse as it moves away from oil and gas."

When insanity ruled policy. On balance, I wouldn't be shocked to learn that our government killed more people than it saved during Covid. And throw in the outcomes of children denied education and socialization for at least years. 

Too many Republicans would rather see a Democrat win than Trump. And too many Trump supporters consider non-Trump backers mere "RINOs". Are Republicans determined to lose the presidency?

The Navy practiced fighting naval campaigns in two theaters at once.

Zumwalt will spend two years having hypersonic missile launch tubes installed.

The U.S. is struggling to keep up with Ukraine's use of artillery ammunition. This war has been a needed alarm about the inadequacy of the supposed Arsenal of Democracy. Be grateful that the alarms sounded while Ukrainians and not Americans are fighting for their lives.

This will total 42 aircraft: "The Netherlands and Denmark announced Sunday they will give F-16 warplanes to Ukraine[.]" If we want to speed this up.

Putting China on notice: "The United States, Japan and Australia are planning a joint navy drill in the South China Sea off the western Philippines[.]"

Chinese Communist Party: Remain calm. All is well.

Discussing Russia's Black Sea amphibious warfare ships. They're getting old. As are Russia's other major warships: "Only a few classes of submarines are exempt. The Russian surface fleet is fading into retirement and eventually most Russian naval power will consist of submarines." That is a bit of hyperbole. The small ships and vessels that can provide coastal defense are still being built. 

Russia puts Norway on its sh*t list. How did NATO member Norway avoid that up until now? The list has 49 countries on it, now.

For a people supposedly just Russians with a funny accent, Ukrainians sure have been fighting to throw off Russian dominance for a long time. Remember, Russia expands by conquest. NATO expands by considering your application for membership. China's neighbors are beginning to wonder if they need their own version of NATO to survive.

I complained that paying Iran ransoms to free Americans will just incentivize Iran to kidnap more Americans. I underestimated the mullah regime. They kept some hostages throughout the current deal.

Sanctions are weakening Russia. Don't oppose Western sanctions because they aren't a silver bullet solution to all our problems with Russian aggression. Sanctions are part of defeating Russia. That's good enough to keep them.

Oh good Lord, could the Hawaii fire death toll have killed lots of children? Sadly, the governor's blaming of climate change rather than officials without a Goddamn sense of urgency to do their actual jobs supports that horrific possibility. I hope to God I'm furious for nothing and that the death toll is not that heartbreaking. 

Exactly: "Don’t let anyone tell you transparency means surrendering your privacy to the state. It’s supposed to be the other way around." Tip to Instapundit.

The proto-imperial EU eager to remove the prefix is anti-democratic? "The European Union has long suffered from a democratic deficit, owing to the absence of a united European polity that can hold EU political institutions accountable. In recent years, three developments have all but destroyed the idea of the EU as an effective force for good within and beyond Europe." As the expression goes, a feature and not a bug. Thank America--not EU apparatchiki--for the national-level freedom that exists.

Reports that Russia will create a new army composed of new units to free up more experienced Kherson front units for commitment further east is interesting. If Ukraine has plans to assault across the Dnieper River, the time is coming. Can Ukraine use small boats and marines (I've heard Britain trained 900 in amphibious warfare recently) to cross? Does Ukraine have the helicopters to expand a bridgehead with troops? Has Ukraine built an underwater bridge to send heavy forces across to push southeast? Can more bridges be established with air defenses?

Chinese island and sea feature bases in the South China Sea placed at risk: "Standing before the backdrop of the frigate HMAS Warramunga, Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy told reporters that Australia’s National Security Committee had approved the $1.3 billion AUD ($833 million USD) purchase of more than 200 Tomahawk cruise missiles and the $431 million AUD ($276 million USD) purchase of advanced long-range anti-radar missiles (AARGM-ER)."

A-holes: "Russia’s fighter jets are making dangerous head-on passes of U.S. jets over Syria, a U.S. spokesperson said, even as Russian media outlets are accusing the United States of doing the same. "

Thank goodness Pakistan is China's problem now and not America's.

Did I miss the repeal of the 25th Amendment in the last couple years? Tip to Instapundit.

China's broad spy recruitment campaign. Will the West impose consequences for the decades of theft?

This is an actual federal government responsibility so it will be ignored until a catastrophe in favor of battling climate change and proper pronoun usage: "While there have been no major U.S. plane crashes in more than a decade, potentially dangerous incidents are occurring far more frequently than almost anyone realizes[.]"

How is it possible that the U.S. is only warning Americans not stay in Belarus until now?!

A long-range Tu-22M was destroyed: "Ukrainian saboteurs coordinated by Kyiv’s military intelligence services carried out a pair of recent drone attacks that hit parked bomber aircraft at air bases deep inside Russia, Ukraine media claimed Tuesday."

Oh? "With Ukraine’s counteroffensive all but halted, the time has come for Washington to push for peace—particularly given that Russia might launch a new offensive in 2024." Why would Ukraine trust us in such an endeavor when the failure of our "peace" plan in Afghanistan rapidly devolved into a decisive Taliban victory? Let's internalize the thinking that there is no substitute for victory.

Ah, the Porcupinist view on focusing on one aspect to magically defeat a Chinese invasion. Yes, anti-ship weapons are important. But Taiwanese large warships are useful to keep Taiwan's sea lines of communication open in war or in Chinese "gray" operations that seek to slowly grab small Taiwanese outposts. Amphibious warfare ships are useful to supply outlying islands during Chinese pressure campaigns and to move troops and supplies along the east coast in war. Portraying Taiwan's admirals as pining for some kind of Battle of Jutland is ridiculous. And yes, spending more on defense is vital. But Taiwan has to fight in every avenue to make sure the PLA is ejected from Taiwan before a ceasefire.

Nice work if you can get it, I suppose: "The goal for the West ought to be to persuade China’s rulers that seeking domestic legitimacy in external aggression would be folly, and that their only real choice concerns their approach to the economy."

Let's not get bogged down in the weeds of what is a "woke" policy: "Risk of a government shutdown this fall is rising after a powerful bloc of House conservatives vowed to oppose any stopgap spending measure that does not roll back Pentagon policies they consider 'woke.'" Our senior military leadership has found many substitutes for victory and I've lost confidence in them. 

To be fair, Iran needs to make room for new hostages: "The United States believes an understanding on Iran eventually releasing five U.S. citizens remains on track, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday but declined to offer any timeline." And now for something completely different:

Much like Western Marxists claim every failed communist state hasn't practiced "true communism", we now find that the Taliban aren't practicing true Islam. To be fair, there's been a lot of that going on lately. If it's that widely misinterpreted, maybe some clarifying reforms are in order?

Republicans aren't happy Biden has released huge sums of money to Iran for American hostages. And they think there is more to worry about: "The letter also accuses the administration of reaching a secret nuclear understanding with Tehran in the agreement." To be fair, there's nothing in the Constitution about submitting a hazy "understanding" by unknown parties to the Senate for approval.

Republic, meet Banana. Via Instapundit.

I suspect this is American disinformation to mislead Russia: "Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive is struggling to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, American and other Western officials say."

If Korb says the military isn't too woke, that convinces me it is too woke.

Troublemakers: "Formation of a national government continues to be blocked by the refusal of Russia and Turkey to withdraw their troops until they receive guarantees that their interests in Libya are respected." Russia would like Libya to remain in chaos to be a portal for destabilizing migrants to reach Europe. Turkey wants the deal that one faction granted Turkey to expand its control over Mediterranean waters.

Amazingly, Russia hasn't been able to gain control of the Black Sea.

This author wonders why we aren't trying to use the LCS rather than get rid of them early. I thought the concept had promise. But it was screwed up as recent Navy surface ship programs have been. I'd have no problem retiring them if we put them in the reserve fleet to call up as expendable light warships during a major sea control war.

Huh: "The EU needs a Russia strategy that looks beyond the war in Ukraine." Every EU "strategy" is about increasing EU control over member states.

No! Way! "Two years after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, there is growing consensus that the country is again devolving into a hotbed of terrorism activity that is already beginning to affect the region, if not yet capable of reaching the West." I was assured the Taliban 2.0 were inclusive and not at all jihad-friendly! I never believed that. But our leaders acted as if it was true. And refused to work the problem to prevent a threat from rising after we screwed the pooch.

I reject the idea that Putin killed Prigozhin because Russia is losing the war. It is too convenient to explain everything that happens as being caused by that. I think Russia is losing the war. But not by a lot. I hope Russia's defenses are a tough crust that relies on bluff. I hope that if Ukraine can break through that crust that it will expose weakness behind it. As I've noted, you have to attack to win. Defending just means you are trying not to lose. Which grants the attacker opportunities.

I'm so old I remember when it was racist just to say the virus originated in China: "The Washington Post’s editorial board published a rundown today of how China’s entire system conspired to keep information on the coronavirus under wraps in the first weeks of 2020 (and beyond). The information in this piece isn’t new but it’s nice to see it presented in the context of how China’s one-party system was intentionally geared to lying, first to their own people and then to the entire world." Tip to Instapundit. 

This will make it easier for American forces to help defend Australia and to project power north: "In what analysts said was a clear sign of its growing value as a strategic center to the Indo-Pacific, Australia has announced it plans to build a $100 million AUD ($64 million USD) factory to produce, apply and maintain the stealth coatings so critical to the F-35." I've long pointed out the shield and sword role of Australia for the Western alliance.

Many islands and the South China Sea stretching north as an avenue for an enemy attack make these good to have: "Indonesia has committed to buying Boeing-made F-15 Eagle fighter jets and Sikorsky-made Black hawk helicopters." The F-15EX can function as a powerful medium-range bomber. Related diplomatic angle.

Many tens of thousands of dead Ukrainians later, who will help Ukraine regain its lost nuclear status? "Ukraine and Britain thought they had solved the problem of ex-Soviet nukes and Ukrainian territorial sovereignty when the Kremlin agreed to the Budapest Accord of 1994. Ukraine would give up its nukes and Russia would respect Ukraine's borders, including the Crimean Peninsula." In time, I suspect China might. For reasons. But France is a wild card possibility because it would diverge from American thought.

Chinese organized crime follow Chinese businesses overseas. Fascinating: "The locals [in South America and the Caribbean Sea] often can’t tell the difference between Chinese businessmen and Chinese gangsters and adopt an anti-Chinese attitude that makes trouble for all Chinese in the area. Chinese firms came up with a solution; Chinese PSCs, or Private Security Companies. Am I wrong to assume this is a broader business approach? Or is it unique to China?

Hmmm: "Once the Ukraine War has ended, the Russian military may accept that the NATO tactics were a major reason for their failure in Ukraine." We'll need to go to the Definitions Section for "Failure". Does that mean "failure to conquer Ukraine" or "ejected from Ukraine"? Or, if Western resolve falters, "failure to conquer Ukraine at low cost"?

I heard someone speculating that Prigozhin might have pretended to be on that plane Putin shot down (if Putin--or any Russian--did in fact give the order). That occurred to me. The simplest explanation is that Prigozhin is dead. If Russia can't confirm his death with remains, I assume Putin wouldn't say that. The FSB would have a quiet priority job worldwide. I guess I wouldn't be shocked if Prigozhin turns up far from Russia. 

Hmmm: "Iran and Saudi Arabia were among six countries set to join Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in the BRICS economic bloc from next year, the bloc announced Thursday[.]" I'd say this is futile given Western strength. But that assumes we have leadership that isn't committed to destroying our economic dominance. China might need decades to see results. Yet I can't help but feel this expansion is intended to conceal Chinese economic weakness.

Arming Taiwan: "The State Department said Wednesday it had signed off on the sale of infrared search tracking systems along with related equipment for advanced F-16 fighter jets."

If I wanted to use amphibious forces to get past the Dnieper River in Kherson, I'd want to destroy S-400 and anti-ship weapons in western Crimea.

Yeah, I don't trust Google results on anything but obscure archival-type information. Tip to Instapundit.

Canada is just a step away from declaring you are crazy not to love Justin Trudeau and all his works. 

Concerns in the West about Ukraine's counteroffensive. Even if Russia's defenses are a hard crust that could collapse if hit hard enough, if the Ukrainians are unable to deploy enough power to break the line before bad weather sets in, Russia wins. Getting close to breaking Russia's army won't count.

Welcome to the Moon! "India became the first country to land a spacecraft near the moon’s south pole on Wednesday[.]" Just leave are cars alone. We're coming back for them.

Odd, no? "Ukrainian special forces made an amphibious raid into the occupied Crimean peninsula on Thursday, where they battled Russian troops and planted the country's flag[.]" Were the attacks on Russia's air defense and anti-ship weapons in western Crimea--noted in an earlier entry--for the purpose of enabling this kinetic information operation? Or a plausible purpose to hide the real purpose?

No matter what I may think of Trump these days, Democrats always manage to act much worse and pose more of a threat to rule-of-law democracy: "Trump’s machinations — though impeachable and disqualifying — posed no real threat to the constitutionally mandated ratification of Biden’s Electoral College majority and the consequent transition of power." Trump's fate is a political and not a criminal question. Tip to Instapundit.

China's faltering economy may nullify worries that a power transition with America may produce a Thucydides Trap war between the two [wrong link corrected]. I noted early on that I had doubts about China passing America by. And I have had doubts about the Thucydides Trap in relation to America and China.

And now for something completely different:

The Chinese party/state control of its economy led Americans to embrace big government control even as China's control is failing to create economic growth. Will American fanboys (and girls) of state direction reverse course and let our free market system work? China's advances were based on technology theft and moving peasants from fields to factories. Once the economy got more complicated than those solutions could handle, things got sluggish. Sadly, both political parties here want the government to direct the economy.

Norway will donate F-16s to Ukraine.

A blast from the past: "UN peacekeepers in Cyprus were physically abused, or manhandled, by members of a Turkish Cypriot security force on August 18th. The incident took place in the village of Pyla, which is in the island’s 180-kilometer long buffer zone monitored by UN peacekeepers. The zone divides the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and the Greek dominated Republic of Cyprus."

No instructions, different spare parts, and no on-site instructors: "The war in Ukraine now somewhat resembles the Spanish Civil War as a place for “neutral” countries to test their new military equipment."

I want to believe this is true: "A former senior Russian commander has claimed that some of Moscow’s forces are on the brink of abandoning their frontline positions in Ukraine due to 'collapsing morale.'" Which makes me wary of embracing it. As I've long said, Ukraine has to be able to hit the Russians hard enough to make that come true. Can Ukraine do that?

Yeah, can't rule that out: "Prigozhin may or may not actually have been on the plane, however. He, and perhaps Chekalov as well, may simply have been assassinated elsewhere. For convenience sake, a plane crash would have provided excellent cover for their elimination." The author says there is no evidence Putin is losing control. I still don't know if Prigozhin's murder (leaving aside he fully deserved that) strengthens Putin or makes him more vulnerable to foes fearful of the same fate.

While the Wagner jet appears to have been shot down, some question that dramatic method of killing Prigozhin. I think it makes sense to claim the military is with Putin on the Wagner question.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Russian intelligence is operating a systematic program to launder pro-Kremlin propaganda through private relationships between Russian operatives and unwitting US and western targets, according to newly declassified US intelligence." Yes, and the Soviets did it, too. Back then Democrats and the left in general were the primary laundering path. But back then nobody suggested direct or indirect government censorship was the means to combat it.

Ukrainian drones struck the Russian naval base at Perevalne, Crimea, following the ground raid that destroyed Russian radars--that detail is new to me. The ground raid was more than an information operation.

Ah, here we go: "Saudi Arabia is considering a bid from China to build its first nuclear power plant, amid fears in Washington that the Gulf state is edging closer to Beijing." The Saudis want a reactor that they can use to build nuclear warheads--a feature no Western nuclear plant would allow. Saudi outreach to China makes more sense now, no? I assume the Saudis--who funded the development--already have access to the Pakistani warhead design. Watching America enable an Iranian drive for nukes while blocking a Saudi path must be frustrating. I don't want nukes proliferating in the Middle East. Including to Iran and Saudi Arabia.

At an unknown rate, Ukraine is breaking open cluster shells to use bomblets on drones. Taking an area effects round and turning it into multiple precision weapons is interesting. And very dangerous to the users, apparently.

I never thought home security cameras were of more use than identifying your killer. And it is worse than that. Tip to Instapundit.

I didn't need a report to tell me Russian morale could be their fatal weakness: "It may be elusive and difficult to measure, but morale decides battles, and a recent report from the Royal United Services Institute notes that 'the poor training and discipline of Moscow’s forces could see the defense become uncoordinated and susceptible to collapse.'" I've long felt Russian troops could be vulnerable to this. But Ukrainian troops need to stress the defenders enough to push them over the edge. Which is harder as long as the Russians are holding fortifications and have artillery support. 

Washington Post: "The Washington Post Says Democracy Demands Less Freedom of Speech[.]"  Via Instapundit. And now for something completely different:

Yes, I've experienced that enraging attitude.

Russia is rebuilding two of its depleted combined arms armies (18th and 25th) in the Donbas, I hear. These are more like our corps in size. On the small end of the range. But the state of the training and equipment is unclear. I've long expected Russia to build a strategic reserve. I suspect Putin will feel compelled to use it in a major offensive. Whether it can achieve something significant, or not.

After years of being in the China skeptic minority about the China, it's amazing how quickly the consensus has turned. China's economy is in serious trouble and China is doomed in its effort to become a superpower. Of course, there's a caveat in the latter assessment: "A combination of smart policies in Washington and deep-seated defects in China precludes the Middle Kingdom from ever being a true superpower." I'm not so sure America is capable of "smart policies" these days.

Is Ukraine on the verge of a major victory because all Ukraine has to do is advance another ten miles to place Russian ground lines of supply through conquered southern Ukrainian territory in jeopardy? I'm far more in favor of having your ground forces standing on the lines of supply than relying on firepower interdiction. So I have my doubts. Ukraine may have no choice but to accept that level of victory as time and troops run out. But it isn't ideal.

So no Taliban 2.0? "On Aug. 15, 2021, the Taliban returned to power and shattered the dreams of Afghan women and girls who once envisioned a future of limitless possibilities." This never gets old:

So ... Oppenheimer was a communist.

Ukraine's top general says Russia is gearing up to resume its offensive in the Donbas.

Testing the platforms: "This year, U.S. Marine Corps F-35B vertical takeoff (VTOL) fighters will operate from one of the two new Japanese aircraft carriers to test their flight decks for heat resistance to the F-35B’s engines. The two Japanese carriers are called 'helicopter destroyers' that look like small aircraft carriers, which is what they actually are." A peace constitution isn't a suicide pact.

Geopolitical Futures' tentative forecasts: "The geopolitical power of the United States will expand dramatically, and deep-seated economic and social pressure may force China to revert to a state of civil strife. And we had already predicted that Ukraine would lead to turmoil the likes of which Russia has not seen since 1991." And will the EU survive? Plus other tentative forecasts. More to follow as they examine the tentative forecasts.

This is portrayed as a sign that Iran was wronged by America: "In 2020, Iran's hardline parliament passed a law requiring the government to take measures such as stepping up uranium enrichment beyond the limit set under Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal if other parties did not fully comply with the deal." But if Iran has no intention of building nuclear weapons--as it formally claims--why would it enrich uranium well beyond what it needs for electricity generation?

Talking about GERD: "Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan resumed their years-long negotiations Sunday over the controversial dam Ethiopia is building on the Nile River’s main tributary, officials said."

The Purpose of War is Victory and Not Efficiency

Can we get defense issues to cluster around the intersection of victory and efficiency a little more?

So many analysts and observers say Russia will defeat Ukraine because of Russia's ability to inflict and endure casualties with firepower-intensive tactics. It is costly, but it works.

And then we have the "Porcupine" strategists who insist that efficiently killing the enemy with magical, inexpensive asymmetric capabilities is the way to deter war.

I really want the Russian firepower-supremacists to talk to the porcupine advocates and decide who is right.

I'm not against killing an enemy more efficiently the way Porcupinists advocate. But the purpose of war is to win--not kill efficiently.

If you fail to deter an enemy with the prospect of casualties, your Porcupinist strategy has lost on the enemy's D-Day, no?

And if all your resources went to asymmetric capabilities to deter invasion, you will find you lack the symmetrical capabilities to drive the enemy back and eject them from your territory. The resulting stalemate may just enable your enemy to regroup and resume the war from positions deeper inside your country. Sooner or later you will run out of country to lose while you efficiently kill your enemies.

There is no cheap, magical method of defending yourself from enemies determined to destroy you. Ultimately you have to fight them everywhere, all at once, with a wide array of weapons and capabilities rather than restricting yourself to the bargain capabilities.

When it comes to a war where your national survival is on the line, nobody gets extra credit for losing the war despite efficiently killing the invaders. At best, future generations of the conquered may draw inspiration from the example to resist and reverse the defeat. 

In the meantime you are conquered.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I added a couple links I meant to include.

The German Problem Evolved

German sensitivity to Russian concerns is rather damning given the destruction Russia is inflicting on Ukraine.

The "German problem" in Europe persists despite the ample proof that its pre-Winter War of 2022 peace plan has been undermined by Russia's war plan:

Germany has sought to avoid the threat of war while dominating Europe by making certain that Russia is not hostile and that France doesn’t seek alliance with it.

I've been lamenting the peril of granting of time to Russia for close to a year, now: 

The delays and excuses about sending Ukraine high-performance aircraft, tanks, missiles and other weapons represent a major reason the Russians had the time and freedom to build formidable defensive lines, whose potency we are now seeing. They also arguably facilitate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dreams of outlasting Kyiv, because they confirm his belief that the West is not solidly behind Ukraine and will eventually tire of supporting it.

This author says that Germany has been a particular failure, noting its reluctance to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine [oops, link added]:

[The German] demand that the Taurus missiles and other weapons are not targeted at Russia betrays a shocking absence of strategic thinking in Berlin and an unmerited excessive fear of Russia. This combination justifies Putin’s contempt for Europe and the belief that time is on his side. It certainly speaks to the continuing success of Russian energy and influence operations in Germany that even now generate a cadre of so-called Putin-understanders, or “Putinversteher.”

The German issue is especially troubling given that Russia has been striking throughout Ukraine all throughout this war, even striking electrical generation plants and grain export facilities. Why is Germany serving as Russia's national air defense system?

As I've long warned, "understanding" Russia is too often used as an excuse to capitulate to Russian demands. 

Contrast Germany with former Axis power but current member of the West, Italy:

Rome’s “New Look” aims to reboot Italy’s role as a regional power with global influence, while still operating within the framework of NATO and the European Union. Drawing on the policies of her predecessor Mario Draghi, Meloni is adopting a strong Atlanticist posture, developing a new African strategy — the Mattei Plan — while also aiming to connect the Mediterranean to the Indo-Pacific.

Which is nice. But Germany is the leading economic power in Europe.

Sadly, Germany's hangover from the rightful shame of its World War II record is preventing Germany from becoming a responsible member of the West. Even as Russia threatens to ignite Europe in general war. So once more with the clue bat:

I keep reading that the Germans hate their militaristic past so much that they don't want to fight.

Let's try applying the clue bat to Germany's collective skull on this issue.

Conquering and setting up death camps under the shield of a powerful military? That's bad. By all means, don't do that.

Having a military capable of fighting death cult enemies or stopping the Russians from moving west? Well, that's a good thing. Try doing that. 

What is Germany's major malfunction?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

A Line in the South China Sea

The Philippines is trying to get out of the vice that China placed on it and has been squeezing. Sierra Madre is ground zero right now.

The Philippines clearly wanted to resist China's subliminal aggression in the South China Sea:

The immediate focus is likely to be on resupplying the beleaguered BRP Sierra Madre garrison, which the government has indicated it intends to do soon—for practical as well as political reasons.

You recall Sierra Madre. I had wondered if the Filipino coast guard would resupply it to keep the struggle in the white hull (coast guard) arena rather than using grey (navy) hulls? 

Their navy? If so, perhaps the Philippines seeks to dare China to respond to Filipino use of minor force by escalating to war and risking conflict with America and other allies over a small patch of land.

I've suggested the Berlin Airlift-East to minimize the risk of war while avoiding defeat. But the Philippines succeeded with a surface mission: 

As a United States Navy plane circled overhead, two Philippine boats breached a Chinese coast guard blockade in a dangerous confrontation Tuesday in the disputed South China Sea to deliver food and other supplies to Filipino forces guarding a contested shoal.

The resupply boats were civilian vessels and the Filipino coast guard was there to watch over them. Reporters were aboard the Filipino vessel, too. Which I've mentioned.

And as America had signaled, it stood behind the Philippines in the air.

Ultimately the Philippines needs to pour a lot of concrete to replace or reinforce and expand that beached ship serving as a scarecrow outpost. Make it permanent and perhaps China will give up on outlasting the Philippines.

Or perhaps build a new ship designed to be grounded and used as a base. 

And do that before China decides to try out its shiny amphibious warfare ships and marines to assault and take the shoal.

UPDATE: U.S. Navy:

Vice Admiral Karl Thomas assured the Philippines of U.S. backing in the face of "shared challenges" in the region, saying: "My forces are out here for a reason."

UPDATE: Yeah, that might be useful to practice:

Australian and Filipino forces, backed by U.S. Marines, practiced retaking an island seized by hostile forces in a large military drill Friday on the northwestern Philippine coast facing the disputed South China Sea.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

A Dangerous Lack of a Common Enemy

Our training efforts in Iraq and eastern Syria are failing to create effective local forces to fight ISIL. I suspect that the problem is that the enemy we want them to fight isn't their primary concern. That should be of great concern to America. Like really a lot.

FFS: 

The U.S. military is reporting paltry progress in some of its efforts to train security forces in Iraq and Syria to fight the Islamic State, which some analysts say raises concerns of a potential repeat of past military collapses. ...

Those [Iraqi security] groups also remain largely dependent on American airpower and are having trouble recruiting for one of their most elite units, said the report by the lead inspector general for Operation Inherent Resolve.

Meanwhile, U.S. partner forces in Syria have been susceptible to bribes and are distracted from the mission against ISIS because of attacks from Turkey, said the report, which was released in early August.

We used to be better at training local forces. Are we spending too much time on pronouns? Or is it as simple as we are training them to be too reliant on our air power? We really should be able to train good light infantry with heavy weapons units to provide indirect fire as the primary means of fighting.

Or is the problem that our local allies are no longer motivated to fight ISIL?

Syrian forces have the issue of the locals being more worried about the Turks than ISIL. 

And how is it possible that the Iraqi Counterterrorism Service--which spearheaded the Mosul offensive to liberate it from ISIL control--hasn't recruited a single soldier since 2018? That simply has to be Iranian influence that undermines an effective professional military force available to the Iraqi government to resist Iranian allies inside Iraq.

On the bright side, at least we are aware of the problem, unlike after our disastrous 2011 withdrawal from Iraq. Will we act on this awareness? 

Because I think the problem isn't America's inability to train allied forces. I'm almost certain I'm not serious about pronouns. Buried deep in that initial article is this insight:

This means that the U.S. should adopt a long-term strategy that tries to diplomatically address issues such as the conflict between Turkey and the Kurds, poor governance in Iraq, and Russian and Iranian influence in the region, analysts said.

Exactly. The foundation of this isn't a technical training issue. I think the problem we need to be aware of is the lack of a common enemy to motivate our local allies. If we aren't their ally against their biggest enemy, we risk our local allies starting to see us as an enemy. Are we ready to rescue our forces suddenly under siege in multiple Alamos?

We need to lessen the Turkish threat so local Syrians see ISIL as the biggest threat.

And we need to make sure Iraqi see America as a reliable ally against Iranian influence inside Iraq--and not see America as siding with Iran. Why would Iraqis side with us against Iran if they see us as betraying them by working closely with Iran?

Imagine how much damage 10,000 ISIL fighters imprisoned inside eastern Syria could do if they suddenly "escaped". Russia would love to see a Sepoy Mutiny across Syria and Iraq.

Oh, and Assad may be feeling a similar effect as the jihadi threat wanes and his brutal methods and sacrifices he demanded seem less necessary:

Protests against the Syrian regime expanded across three southern Syrian provinces. This expansion is unsurprising given that it is a Friday—the first day of the weekend in Syria.

Of course, Assad deserves what he gets. But I'm very worried about American troops. Mind you, I'm not worried the Iraqi government or the Syrian Kurds will openly turn against us. But they might stand aside and not get involved if third parties attack because they think they have more important objectives to secure.

I don't know about you, but my pucker factor just redlined. Maybe we should review Allied relief operations in the Boxer Rebellion and take stock of what units we can get to CENTCOM in an emergency and how fast they can mount a rescue operation.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Did Nuking Japan Save the West?

Did dropping atomic bombs deter Stalin from invading Western Europe on the heels of defeating Nazi Germany?

This blogger asks if  nuking Japan saved Western Europe from the USSR (via Instapundit).

He bases that position on the surprising revelation from Antony Beevor that I quoted in this post:

[A] meeting of the Politburo in 1944 had decided to order the Stavka to plan for the invasion of France and Italy, as General Shtemenko later told Beria's son. The Red Army offensive was to be combined with with a seizure of power by the local Communist Parties. In addition, Shtemenko explained, "a landing in Norway was provided for, as well as the seizure of the Straits [with Denmark.] A substantial budget was allocated for the realisation of these plans. It was expected that the Americans would abandon a Europe fallen into chaos, while Britain and France would be paralyzed by their colonial problems. The Soviet Union possessed 400 experienced divisions, ready to bound forward like tigers. It was calculated that the whole operation would take no more than a month ... All those plans were aborted when Stalin learned from [Beria] that the Americans had the atom bomb and were putting it into mass production." Stalin apparently told Beria "that if Roosevelt had still been alive, we would have succeeded." This, it seems, was the main reason why Stalin suspected that Roosevelt had been secretly assassinated. (765) ...

Stalin had achieved everything he wanted at Potsdam, even though he had been forced to cancel the invasion of western Europe out of fear of the atom bomb. (767)

For once, Russian paranoia worked for us.

 The blogger rightly states:

This is astounding news. Nothing less. What does it say about the use of the atomic bombs — not to mention, for that matter, McCarthyism along with the alleged paranoia regarding the later Red "Scare" as well as the alleged daftness of the American people?

When unhappy Western elites — quite a number of them from Europe, especially Western Europe — criticize Uncle Sam's atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki as evil and useless war crimes and no more than a(n outright hateful?) warning to the USSR, they usually mean it to mean that tens of thousands of Japanese citizens were sacrificed simply to prevent nothing more harmless than a few handfuls of (gallant soldiers in) Koba's Red Army joining in some little way in the victory over the Japanese Empire.  

Remember too that Stalin allied with Hitler, seemingly hoping Germany would exhaust itself in another war with Britain and France--exhausting them in the process--and leaving Europe open to Soviet domination.*

Clearly Stalin thought his moment had arrived even if tens of millions of Soviets had to die to get him to that point.

I focused on a defense of NATO against charges that the defensive alliance provoked Soviet hostility. But now we know the very existence of a free Western Europe depended on the use of atomic bombs. 

And perhaps this event has shaped Russia's apparent belief today that the threat of nuclear weapons will deter an enemy from liberating territory that Russia has captured. Because didn't that essentially happen with the implicit American nuclear threat that kept Stalin from advancing to the Atlantic coast through the Allied forces still in Europe after defeating Germany?

And keep in mind that not dropping the bomb also would not have saved Japanese lives. Japanese fanatical nationalists thought Japan could keep fighting even after two atomic bombs destroyed two Japanese cities. And tried to sabotage Japan's surrender.

What are the odds the Japanese would have overcome the nationalists and surrendered without the atomic strikes? And would America have risked its army invading Japan when the prospect of D-Day 2.0 in Europe loomed? The invasion of Japan would have been bloody and destructive enough. Instead, America might have blockaded Japan and starved it into submission, at a horrible price in Japanese civilian lives.

Which would have wrecked American efforts to turn Japan into an anti-communist ally in the Cold War. Which would have resulted in South Korea falling to North Korea. 

The West would have been crippled and denied the chance to expand with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan the opportunity to join the West. Not to mention democracy's advances in Europe.

UPDATE: Related thoughts. While there is no evidence that the U.S. needlessly nuked a Japan on the cusp of surrendering in order to scare Stalin, the fact that Stalin was apparently scared into not invading Western Europe is not proof of the false charge.

*A ploy the Russians used in the Pacific at the same time, and have tried to do again with China versus America and our allies.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 Tempts the West to Pursue "Peace"

Real peace only follows the absolute defeat of the enemy. Pursuing anything less simply gives the enemy more incentive--and opportunity--to win.

Did the West blow the opportunity to end the war quickly when Russia was at its weakest because of its slowness in making decisions to aid Ukraine and then its slowness in providing that aid?

This deficiency is being demonstrated at great cost in Ukraine’s current offensive. That Ukraine would need to be on the offensive by late 2022 was already acknowledged in assessments as early as April of that year. The capability requirements for such operations were becoming apparent from July, and reports to Western capitals were articulating clear training, equipment and support needs from September. Despite the requirements being known and understood, the decision to provide this support was not taken until January 2023, with the implementation of these decisions still in the process of being carried out.

I've certainly been calling for a Ukrainian counteroffensive as the fall and winter of 2022 and 2023 progressed. I've lamented the failure of the Ukrainians to exploit Russia's culminated offensive before Russia could mobilize new resources. This gave Russia the most precious commodity of all in war--time. Russia wasted resources but seemingly bought more time by throwing Wagner-recruited convicts (who died in large numbers) at Ukraine's Bakhmut during the winter and spring of 2023. 

And so far in the much-delayed counteroffensive, Ukraine is not using the good weather to drive the Russians back in large chunks. Oh, Ukraine is inflicting disproportionate losses on the Russians. And Ukraine does seem to be making accelerated progress in the south in recent weeks. Around Bakhmut it seems static. And in the east, Russia is periodically pushing forward with a heavy concentration of forces.

Perhaps with enough time Ukraine's southern progress will give Ukraine the opportunity to exploit Russian weaknesses to make dramatic gains.

The West's problem seems broader than simply deficient stockpiles to wage an extended war. Our governments can't produce enough rapid decisions and implement them rapidly to cope with reality. We have multiple alarms going off in our cockpit.

But I digress.

But the West expects more than it is seeing now--despite the modeling that NATO used that created those expectations--and continued support is implicitly linked to Ukraine proving it can win the war and lower Western expenses supporting Ukraine.

It may be tempting for the West to say that Ukraine can't win by driving the Russians out of Ukraine. The hope that Ukraine can be forced to fight for a draw is dangerous. Because once Russia knows NATO won't help Ukraine win, Russia has the valued knowledge that it can't lose on the battlefield because Russia controls the pace and scope of fighting. Which means if things get rough, Russia can scale back until it can ramp up the fighting again. And once the Ukrainians appreciate that NATO wants them to fight on to hold the line as long as Russia is willing to attack, Ukrainian morale may erode and then collapse. 

ISW judges Ukraine is still in this fight:

ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are significantly degrading defending Russian forces and that the overall degradation of the Russian defensive line creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially operationally significant. 

The problem is that reaching that operationally significant advance is taking time. Russia clearly thinks sacrificing lives to buy time until the campaign season ends is worth the price. And if that happens, Russia can hope to escape this war and try again later. When the West is distracted or undermined enough to keep it from supporting Ukraine to the same level.

A nuanced, negotiated settlement is not possible. The war has to be faced with the resolve that either we win or they win. And we need to try to win. With a sense of urgency.

UPDATE (Monday): Russia will gain with even a difficult victory over Ukraine. Exactly:

The best alternative to this bleak scenario is simple: to give Ukraine the weapons it needs to defeat Russia while putting real pressure on the Kremlin. Victory is still achievable. But we have to want it as much as the Ukrainians do.

UPDATE: (Wednesday): Prigozhin apparently died in a plane crash within Russia: 

Earlier, Wagner-linked Telegram channel Grey Zone reported the Embraer aircraft was shot down by air defences in the Tver region, north of Moscow.

I'm shocked. I assumed he'd fall out of a window. Do Prigozhin's fans wait patiently for their turn or take action to live? Tip to Instapundit.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Prigozhin's death is nothing to mourn. He and his Wagner mercenaries were monsters in Ukraine. And harmful in Africa and Syria. 

The question is whether his death is useful to the West. I wonder if his death in such a blatant manner--after Putin's apparent promise to let him live--will prompt Russians fearful of following Prigozhin to act against Putin. 

The lesson that if you strike a king you must kill him might be more dangerous than Prigozhin ever could have been.

UPDATE (Wednesday) Yeah:

Some [Russian] milbloggers claimed that Prigozhin’s assassination will have “catastrophic consequences” and that this incident is a lesson that one must always continue going until the end – implying that Prigozhin should have continued his march on Moscow.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.