Are China's chance of landing on Taiwan and conquering it impossibly low? Or are the Taiwanese vulnerable to being intimidated into succumbing to China's pressure to just accept China's control of Taiwan? Because the experts are giving me mixed signals.
China should be "sobered" by Russia's experience invading Taiwan?
China has not fought in a war since the 1950s, raising questions about how its armed forces would perform in 21st-century combat, a retired top Navy official said.
That combined with the lessons Moscow has learned over the last 18 months should be “sobering” to Chinese President Xi Jinping, retired Adm. Mike Mullen said Wednesday in a Washington Post online forum.
Mullen noted amphibious invasions are “the toughest military operations possible.” To invade Taiwan, China would have to move an invasion force about 100 miles through rough sea to a densely populated mountainous island with few landing sites.
One, China Vietnam in 1979, and the war stretched on for years after at a low level along the border. But sure, it's been a long time.
Say, how long has it been since America waged a war to control the seas?
Sure, China's military isn't as good as its shiny new weapons appear. But I worry that our Navy isn't as good as its shiny historical record based on World War II in the Pacific makes it appear.
That would be 1945, if we're keeping score.
And when was Taiwan's last war? I think that would be the civil war they lost. So 1949. And I have no idea how resolute or well trained Taiwan's troops are. I have my doubts:
Poor preparation and low morale are pressing concerns; sweeping leaves and pulling weeds in basic training[.]
Remember. China doesn't have to defeat America. China has to defeat Taiwan. China only needs to delay America.
China has launched a misinformation campaign that includes news reports Taiwan's president has an "escape plan" in the event of a Chinese invasion, aiming to sap morale as Beijing presses the island to accept its sovereignty, Taiwan officials said.
Two, Russia's invasion stalled and has piled up casualties over nearly a year and a half of fighting. But:
Russia’s first massive push, which began on the night of February 23, allowed it to secure or advance on one fifth of Ukrainian territory, or about 119,000 square kilometers (46,000 square miles) [.]
Taiwan's territory has 36,197 square kilometers (13,976 sq mi).
Huh. As I've pointed out before when I'm told China should be worried watching Russia lose troops and equipment in Ukraine, Taiwan lacks the territorial depth to replicate Ukraine's initial successful defense.
I wonder what Russia's losses and casualties were to capture the first 36,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory? Not very many, I'd wager. Especially compared to the cumulative casualties until now.
And let's recall what China has considered an acceptable price in casualties to capture Taiwan:
Apparently in 2004 it emerged under questioning that about 21,000 deaths were expected in such an attack. Contrary to Western views that China has unlimited manpower and that human life is cheap, the leadership found this figure unacceptable.
If Russia's casualties were fewer than 21,000 dead to capture its first 36,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, does that really "sober" China's rulers about their chances of success?
And for more fun, China doesn't have to capture anywhere near 36,000 square kilometers of Taiwanese territory to claim a victory.
Third, what if the Chinese plans for an invasion do not look like D-Day?
I think special forces, direct-action spies, infiltrated light forces, airborne and airliftable forces, limited amphibious operations, and a lot of assaults on Taiwan's ports with PLA Army troops carried by Chinese Coast Guard and civilian vessels would be the means of getting ashore.
China's marine forces would have smaller but important direct and supporting roles.One thing I still hold is that China does not plan an invasion over Taiwan's limited beaches. If China planned D-Day 2.0, China would have built up its marine force and amphibious lift to do that. Taiwan is the most core of China's core interests. If those forces were needed, China would have far more by now.
I'm certainly not the only person to look more to China's airborne and air mobile forces rather than marines as the primary threat. And as I noted in an update to that earlier post above about a non-D-Day invasion:
If you have a giant amphibious platform 100 miles away (China itself), you have options other than big deck amphibious ships to move your helicopters close to the target, eh?
Russia's initial attempt certainly made it to the outskirts of Kiev. And that attempt was just a parade advance that assumed Ukrainians would welcome rescue from Nazis, NATO, and the Devil himself.
Perhaps China learns it should consider itself in a fight to the death from H-Hour on. And perhaps the Chinese have enough sense of racial and civilizational superiority to dismiss the failures of hairy steppe barbarians who can't even develop non-commissioned officers:
In 2009 China switched over to the Western system with nine enlisted soldier ranks. Six of those ranks were for NCOs with the top one being sergeant major. China has been successful with this system and Russia has not.
Finally, I don't think I had to address those three issues. Because Mullen doesn't apparently believe his points are persuasive:
Right now, Xi’s “current strategy is to put so much pressure on Taiwan that people raise their hands and say ‘we’ll come aboard,’” Mullen said.
That pressure comes in the form of continuous military air sorties and exercises simulating a naval blockade of the self-governing island.
If China would faceplant crossing the Taiwan Strait, why would that make Taiwan feel any pressure?
And why is it so urgent to restore out military industrial base to stop China from *checks notes* carrying out "the toughest military operations possible" against Taiwan in light of Russia's experience in a much easier overland invasion of Ukraine that should be "sobering" to China?
I think China wants Taiwan, which is China's most core of core interests. China is preparing to invade Taiwan. The Taiwanese defenders aren't nearly as ready or numerous as they should be. And China hopes to delay effective American intervention.
China is focused on recovering Taiwan by force if necessary, even if China's leadership is patient enough to wait and see how events--perhaps dangerous events that compel China to see defeat as the least-bad option--develop before ordering that step.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
