We debate the direction of China's policy and government. But we haven't really settled on what China is right now. What is China's population? What is China's GDP? Shouldn't that be kind of important before we peer into the future?
New demographic data on China is rather stunning (tip to Instapundit):
China aged past the point of demographic no return over 20 years, ago and it wasn’t just this year that India became the world’s most populous country, that probably happened roughly a decade ago. And it wasn’t in 2018 that the average Chinese aged past the average American, that was probably roughly in 2007 or 2008.
Huh. I keep reading stuff like this, including that China's economy is grossly overrated:
Is China's GDP overstated by 60%? Big if true. Their defense spending is a much bigger burden, for example. Tip to Instapundit. I've been a skeptic of China's rise to surpass America as many posts show. A decade ago I wondered about the quality of China's growth. Four years ago I mentioned the light metric. And three years ago I noted skepticism of official stats. But I never would have guessed by this much.
Doesn't this throw a monkey wrench into the machinery of our China analysis? Yet nobody seems to adjust the official statistics and everybody just keeps pretending nothing has changed.
And if we can't easily adjust our views for data contrary to what we've long assumed to be true, can the Chinese Communist Party adjust? China's senior leadership may be even more isolated from reality inside China. Even if China's rulers have special long-term planning instincts, bad data undermines that magical skill, no?
Perhaps the Chinese people are feeling these changes on the ground despite the stasis in analyst and leadership views on China. This author speaks of the end of optimism in China:
Taken together, the statistics paint a picture of a society that is reluctant to invest in an uncertain future—one where many Chinese appear to be protesting with their wallets, wombs, and feet, and where the best and brightest see themselves in a literary character meant to symbolize irrelevancy.
Not to get all mystical, but is the Mandate of Heaven being withdrawn from Emperor Xi Jinping? And what would Xi try to restore it (back to the end of optimism author)?
If the public mood continues to sour, the Communist Party will likely resort to greater repression to assert its will and enforce its unpopular policies. Xi could also continue to turn to nationalist causes, such as unification with Taiwan or control of the South China Sea, to rally the public behind him, potentially making his regime a greater danger to regional stability.
That said, I'm not sure how to evaluate Zeihan's credibility. I mean, I want to believe him. As much as I don't want the economic dislocation of a failed China I want an aggressive China even less. Maybe he's Gordon Chang with better timing. Or just fresher timing.
We certainly are living in interesting times. With complex global supply chains. And nukes.
Have a super sparkly day.
UPDATE: Related thoughts:
China is probably at or near its peak global influence before it begins a long, slow descent in its relevance to the rest of the world. In this and following pieces, I will lay out some statistics that show this will likely be the case.
That article focuses on demographics.
UPDATE: Via Instapundit, is the word spreading?
Conditions in the Chinese economy are worse than the world thinks, a self-exiled property entrepreneur told The New York Times.
NOTE: TDR coverage of the Winter War of 2022 continues here.
