The only way Russia can repair the damage it has inflicted on relations with the West by invading Ukraine is to end the war and become an asset for containing China.
Russia has been so brutal in its illegal invasion of Ukraine that even with the end of the war, NATO will continue to arm up with a focus on finally stopping the open aggressive intent of Russia under its current leadership as it continues to prepare to expand its territory in the west.
Russia's big plan to cope with NATO and China has fallen apart. Russia needs a bold change to regain great power status. And perhaps more importantly, Putin may need it to survive.
If Russia withdraws from Ukraine, stops trying to paint NATO as their enemy, and if Russia pivots to defend their territory from China's threat, we may have a basis for a mutually beneficial deal:
The armed confrontation in Ukraine will continue until the West gives up plans to dominate and defeat Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with an Indonesian newspaper published on Wednesday.
Well, good news Sergei! Mission accomplished!
Until Russia started acting aggressive, NATO was dissolving before our eyes. Western states were disarming and defense spending was declining in real terms. Many in America wondered why we even kept NATO. America's military had largely gone home, down to an Army presence of only a paratrooper brigade in Italy and a Stryker brigade in Germany.
Clearly, if Russia isn't attacking its western neighbors, the West has no major problem with Russia that it believes requires military force to resolve. As I've observed many times:
"Face it, if Russian rulers had any sense, they'd make peace with NATO and Ukraine in order to make Europe a safe rear area to deploy military power east to block China before Russia experiences further imperial shrinkage.
But no, Russia could not see that. Russia slowly galvanized NATO states to first recognize the threat and then slowly react by rebuilding military power. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine has accelerated that slow trend.
At the other end of their country, Russia can see it is getting very little from its partnership "without limits" with China. And China, having sucked old Soviet technology out of Russia is probably realizing from the war that the Russians have little of use to offer China any more. China's frenemy with temporary benefits has little to offer now:
Russia essentially aimed China at America. But Russia's usefulness to China as a fire sale for Soviet technology is running out.
And I think Russia is loudly aggressive toward NATO in part to hide Russia's appeasement of China to secure its Far East while Russia tries to move past post-Soviet Russian weakness.
And really, as China threatens neighbors with its growing military and economic power, Russia has a lot in common with those potential victims.
Sure, if Ukraine is having problems getting in NATO, nobody should expect NATO to extend its Article V guarantees all the way to the Amur River. But Russia can see from the war in Ukraine that the West can be a big help even for a country that isn't a formal ally.
Yet as I mentioned when I argued in Military Review for an Army role in INDOPACOM for containing China using its core competency of large-scale conventional warfare:
is it out of bounds to wonder if Russia one day might value the potential power of an American contingency expeditionary force to help Russia resist irredentist Chinese claims to portions of Russia’s far east that China lost in the nineteenth century?
I know that's a major shift in alignment. Many will argue there is no way can a country bloodied by poor performance at war dare to break with its more powerful partner!
Yet Russia has to do something big to make up for the damage to its reputation by invading Ukraine, and threatening it and NATO countries with nuclear weapons. Going all in against China might be the only way to salvage something positive from invading Ukraine in 2022.
Russia has to rebuild its military. The ground forces are shattered, the air force is mostly a waste of money, and the navy is small and unlikely to get many resources given the needs of building decent ground and air power. My suggestions could be appropriate.
And Russia had best hurry before China decides Russia is a better victim than partner.
I've wanted to flip Russia--but not at the price of throwing Ukraine under the bus. I even hoped Biden was trying to do that before Russia invaded Ukraine. Will a costly war be the lever that finally flips Russia?
Only Putin can go to NATO. Will he to save himself? And save Russia?
UPDATE: Of course, Russia may think it doesn't face a threat that requires it to repair relations with the West as long as China thinks it needs to sell dual-use equipment to Russia:
China is ignoring any criticism of its military exports because China wants to see Russia at least survive its poor decision to invade Ukraine. China openly criticized Russia for this but wants to minimize the damage.
But how long will China try to minimize the damage to Russia before deciding that pouncing on Russia would be more profitable? This pressure should encourage the West to keep supporting Ukraine to give China a dilemma, too.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
