China needs to delay America's effective intervention if China starts a war in the western Pacific. Cuba will be sacrificed to achieve that goal.
To defeat America, China can focus on defeating one of our many allies in our web of bilateral alliances that we knit into a coherent whole to deter and defeat China.
And defeating one of those allies, like Taiwan, doesn't require China to defeat America--just to delay American intervention until China achieves victory. And then dares America to pay the price to reverse China's victory.
China wants an outpost in Cuba: (via Instapundit):
China and Cuba are in active conversations about creating a new joint military training facility on the island nation 100 miles from the American homeland.
Sure, a Chinese military outpost would lead a short but exciting life if China goes to war with America. But that's not the point.
The USSR liked having an outpost in Cuba to slow down potential American reinforcements sent to Europe from Gulf Coast ports or from the Pacific through the Panama Canal. China sees value in that threat for traffic going west.
Depending on how you define what a Chinese victory in the western Pacific would be, China might not need to buy as much time as you think.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
