China has to reconsider what its partnership with Russia means even if in the short run nothing visibly changes.
China has discovered that Russia is much weaker than they assumed:
Yurii Poita, the head of the Asia-Pacific section at Ukraine’s Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, agrees the partnership is expected to continue in the short term.
But he said Beijing might be making more contingency plans based on a revised understanding about the weaknesses in Russian security and defence.
Both the war and the Wagner Mutiny call into question Russia's value as an ally to China.
Indeed, Russia might be a liability without limits for China. China certainly sees limits on its help for its so-called partner Russia embroiled in a war with Ukraine who is backed by NATO.
I'd imagine that China might consider a contingency plan based on Russia being too weak to be an ally but weak enough to be a victim.
Maybe China wants a signal military victory against Russia which has few friends for China to worry about.
Maybe China goes big for the prime remaining land grab from the Century of Humiliation.
Or China could play it safe and seek gains at Russia's expense outside of Russia.
Or China might play a long game beginning with undermining Russia, gaining more and broader concessions from Russia, and preparing to pick up the pieces.
It's been a big change since Russia believed it would crush Ukraine in days, break NATO's will, frighten former Soviet states into passive compliance, and turn to face China with confidence and demonstrated power.
The Fuck-Up Fairy has been super busy in Moscow.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
