Russia had a golden opportunity at the end of the Cold War. Putin instead followed the wise counsel of the Fuck-Up Fairy and embarked on a policy of alienating everybody west of the Ural Mountains to become the Angry Sick Man of Europe.
With the end of the Cold War, Russia seemed to be out of the game of seeking global dominance once and for all. It could have focused its foreign policy on one goal: maximizing the prosperity of the Russian people through economic growth while guaranteeing their security at comparatively minimal cost.
Instead, following the advice of the Fuck-Up Fairy, Putin embraced its three traditional sources of Russian weakness.
And today, Russia is stuck in a war with Ukraine that is flailing the hide off of the rump Russian empire because of the evident national mental health issue.
This author sees a danger of Russia fragmenting after defeat in Ukraine. That kind of further breakup has long been on my mind.
I'll add that a Russian "defeat" could be a broader definition if we include failure to win big enough to justify equipment losses, casualties, and economic problems that last long after the war.
And if Putin allows rival power centers to rise in an effort to win big, defeat of one sort or another could light the fuse of a powder train already in place.
Russia under Putin became the Angry Sick Man of Europe.
Oh, and my bonus warning from that 2008 post: "And if anyone thinks that it is wise to count on Russian help for energy security, spend a week during the winter in Berlin."
And here we are. With conventional war raging in Europe. Russia alienating the West for a generation. Russian power shattered and pinned in Europe.
And China smiling.
Russia is clearly its own main enemy.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
