Democratic Party-controlled cities fund Antifa. So yeah, Antifa is the party's street thug muscle. As I've often noted, the real outrage isn't what politicians do that is illegal. The real outrage is the perfectly legal things they do. Point of order: It's not "lawfare" when both sides are cooperating. It's "collusion." Tar. Feathers. Tip to Instapundit.
It's a mystery: "The Russian military has suffered, and continues to suffer, heavy losses
in Ukraine but is still planning on how to rebuild and expand. Planners
ran into a major problem upon discovering that, somehow, wartime losses
and emigration had greatly reduced the number of men able to serve in
the military." The spring recruiting drive is on. How will it turn out? But don't gloat too much if you think America can't screw things up. As I've said, our military has many substitutes for victory. Damn them. But I disagree that America loses its wars. With an Afghanistan exception, of course. Other than that, we spend too much time looking for our defeat and enemy victories.
And now for something completely different:
Tar. Feathers: "A federal prosecutor admitted in court papers that three D.C.
Metropolitan Police Department undercover officers acted as provocateurs
at the northwest steps of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021." Tip to Instapundit. The Reichstag fire wasn't supposed to be a how-to manual for our government.
Scroll down for the background of how Poland got away with defying Soviet control. It is not futile to be capable of resisting a much larger enemy. Of course, it helped Poland that the Soviet Union was on the road to collapse then, even as it seemed powerful. Who knew?
And now for something completely different:
Yes: "Since the outbreak of the first high-intensity conflict on the European subcontinent since WWII, one of the key strategic takeaways has been the fundamental failure of the global defence industry to meet the requisite level of production for munitions of all types." I mentioned the issue of running out of high-tech weapons before the war and noted the broader issue of production fairly early in the war.
Could the White House claim that white supremacists are the greatest internal threat if you don't count the federal agents within actual or alleged hate groups? There is value to deterring actual terrorists by infiltrating groups to make arrests. That makes real terrorists wary of seeking out help. But I think the feds have crossed the fine line between scaring real terrorists and simulating an inflated terrorist threat. As I noted earlier on a sorta but not really different issue:
Cold War: "To better cope with threats emanating from Russia, the countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden have created a unified Nordic air defense alliance, pooling the resources of their air forces." Makes sense.
I've long derided the feminist complaints of a patriarchy's all-powerful control of American society. But honestly, I'm starting to think I grossly underestimated the deep devotion of the patriarchy to do whatever it takes to keep women subservient. That's ruthless, eh? Or maybe men really are just better at everything? Break up into small groups and discuss. Tip to instapundit.
I looked forward to seeing 5 planets clustered together. Sadly I couldn't see Uranus. ... I regret nothing.
L.A.: Assisted suicide or murder? Tip to Instapundit.
She's ba aack! Be afraid. Be very afraid:
Hmmm: "Russia is unable to meet its commitments to deliver vital defense supplies to India, with Indian Air Force claiming that the war in Ukraine has depleted Moscow's military supplies." Or is China compelling Russia to throttle back arms deliveries to India as the price of what little help China is providing Russia?
California denied the pandemic science. Tip to Instapundit.
And history denial in service of hating a certain racial category. Again, via Instapundit.
Fizzle. Ef Paul Ehrlich. My prediction for the next decade's leftist argument: We need socialism to increase the population!
Why does Iran think Arab states will look away rather than call Iranian interference in Iraq a violation of the China-brokered Iran-Saudi Arabia detente? "Iran is hoping this new deal will enable Iran to expand its waning influence in Iraq. Since 2021 this Iranian influence has visibly declined because of so many Iraqis opposing Iranian interference in Iraq plus help from other Arab countries, like Saudi Arabia, in reducing Iranian influence in Iraq."
Vietnam has problems with China over control of the South China Sea.
Indeed: "China has more than just historical claims behind its ambitions to take Taiwan, specifically greater industrial production capabilities available on the island as well as an operational foothold in the area that could break up U.S. influence in the region, according to defense and intelligence experts." Agreed. As to the chip production objective, that's already recognized.
Eighteen German Leopard II tanks arrived in Ukraine to join 14 British challengers. So figure enough for two companies plus spares. I assume those would be the spearhead companies of two tank battalions. Late in World War II, when German tank production was too little to equip German tank divisions, cheaper, simpler, and less effective assault guns replaced some tanks. The actual tanks led while the assault guns followed to support them. I assume the Western tanks will lead the older Soviet models in those brigades. Although I also expect Ukrainian units with Soviet tanks to fight for the breakthrough while the Western tanks exploit.
The EU is discussing producing artillery ammunition in Poland.
It takes a village to craze a child: "The Biden administration plans to use taxpayer funds to inspire and support young climate activists in developing countries—even as it acknowledges that young people suffer from 'climate-related mental health conditions.'" Children's crusade, indeed, as Instapundit noted. Which totally fits.
LOL. Tip to The Morning Briefing.
Wait. What? Solving for X is racist? The leftist loons who gave us "Latinx" think Algebra is racist? Tip to Instapundit.
Electric Yugos. I don't want any of those expensive crap cars that quietly scream "I'm better than you because I care." Tip to Instapundit.
A surprising call for caution in the broad condemnation of our post-9/11 wars: "Invading Afghanistan and Iraq was the only practical option if the goal was to cripple a very capable enemy. The U.S. launched broad attacks in multiple countries. This could provoke hostility, but there was no better option. It was an unconventional counteroffensive, and this is what its critics dislike, but they offer no clear alternative." Surprising because while I respect the author he has called Iraq a defeat. I disagreed. Although my later view on the struggle against jihadis after the counteroffensive may be closer to his views. And I appreciate his caution on how time changes judgment.
Finland will certainly make it into NATO before Sweden does.
Good: "[The Secretary of the Navy] is eyeing this rearm-at-sea capability as one of a handful of steps the service must take to prepare for conflict in the Pacific; other steps include strengthening logistics capabilities and identifying foreign shipyards that could conduct repairs to battle-damaged ships." Right now we can reload Pacific-based ships only in Japan, Guam, Hawaii, and California ports. And are even California ports safe? Also, do we have the missile supply for reloads? Asking for a friend.
Is Russia's invasion of Ukraine alienating European states once friendly or sympathetic to Putin? Interesting. If true, it relies on Russia losing the war and not just failing to win.
Chimps with nukes: "Russia will no longer give the U.S. advance notice about its missile
tests, a senior Moscow diplomat said Wednesday, as its military deployed
mobile launchers in Siberia in a show of the country’s massive nuclear
capability amid fighting in Ukraine." So beating their chest and flinging poo is expected.
Wait. What? The government ordering something to be so in the economy backed by a mountain of taxpayer money doesn't make it so? "By now it’s clear that the Chips and Science Act — which includes a $52 billion splurge for the semiconductor industry — is unlikely to work as intended. In fact, its looming failure is a microcosm of all that’s wrong with America’s current approach to building things." Tip to Instapundit.
Russia hasn't been able to adequately replace troops and tanks lost in the invasion. The result? "Russian forces in Ukraine are now outnumbered by better armed, trained and motivated Ukrainian forces that are planning another major offensive to drive all Russians out of Ukraine." I'm hoping Ukrainian complaints about an inability to attack are a "when near, appear far" thing.
Being in the military is dangerous what with people trying to kill you and the side effects of surviving in a harsh environment. This isn't one of the threats: "Accusations of depleted uranium causing health problems have been made before, and have never withstood scientific scrutiny. But throw the words "uranium" and "radioactive" in front of the media and you send reporters and politicians into a feeding frenzy."
But Putin says this is the Great Patriotic War 2.0! "Despite the suffering of ill-equipped Russian troops in Ukraine, Russian generals and contractors are still being caught supplying sub-standard equipment, services and other supplies to Russian troops."
Huh: "Despite the sanctions and need to spend heavily on Ukraine operations,
the Russian navy has been able to keep work going on the aircraft
carrier Kuznetsov." Fix it! Fix it! Good.... Let the fleet flow through you!
Fading away: "Production of the American F-18 fighter will end in 2025, or a little later if the Indian Navy decides to adopt the F-18E for its aircraft carriers." Or will they go out in a blaze of glory in Ukrainian service?
The Army gears up to be the Arsenal of Democracy.
Would Russia really resort to unrestricted submarine warfare? "With Russia’s land invasion bogged down, it may turn to the sea as another way of hurting Ukraine. Russian submarines in the Black Sea could target ships exporting Ukrainian wheat and other resources, according to experts at a British think tank." How will poor nations reliant on that grain react? But Russia has few subs there. What if one just sank from an accident? And would Russia go after ships in NATO coastal waters? Sounds like a dumb course of action if you ask me.
This is a good article. I learned that Saddam was not bluffing about having WMD to deter Iran. I thought that theory made sense, all things considered. Although I'll note that the information out there could have had that effect even if it was not intended by Saddam. Still, despite discussing how American intelligence got the issue wrong, it neglects that Saddam was required by the 1991 war ceasefire to prove that he had disarmed. He did not. And I have no doubt Saddam would have produced WMD just as soon as the international community tired of the game whose rules Saddam re-wrote--prove Iraq has WMD as Iraqi people starve under sanctions. Also, the author rebuts a charge I never made nor relied on--that Saddam had direct links to al Qaeda and had a role in 9/11. But he also notes that Saddam definitely had links to terrorism and terrorists--even al Qaeda in the past. Also, I never assumed Saddam had to be a "born-again" Islamist to support jihadis. Enemy of my enemy, and all that.
Tiny Finland's strategy to make Finland too hard for Russia to conquer isn't based on asymmetrical "porcupine" weapons but seems to be based on a determination to defeat the invaders. That seems wise.
RUSI: "'It is evident,' says the report, 'that the Russian special services managed to recruit a large agent network in Ukraine prior to the invasion and that much of the support apparatus has remained viable after the invasion, providing a steady stream of human intelligence to Russian forces.'"
Apparently, Captain Obvious has been on leave the last 12 months: "The rate at which Ukrainians are firing munitions at Russian invaders
has led the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps to reevaluate the levels of
munitions they need to stockpile for a future conflict, service
officials said Tuesday." About time.
The RESTRICT Act is about restricting Americans--not restricting Chinese TikTok malware.
The obvious defense for oil companies is to not sell any gasoline there at all. Hell, California makes it clear it is repulsed by gasoline. Give them what they want. Good and hard.
Russia can claim China is its close ally. But they aren't (tip to Instapundit). We all know they are frenemies with temporary benefits. And with Russia flailing in Ukraine, China may see far more benefits from just letting Russia die, I imagine. Putin is reduced to prostrating Russia even lower and hoping for the best. And I say, that works for America and our allies in the western Pacific. I've spent a couple decades warning the Russians that they want the West as a friend and ally. But do they listen to me? No. And what is getting them? Effed in Asia.
I think there is something to that "survival of the survivors" notion over "survival of the fittest." Tip to Instapundit.
Meanwhile in South America: "Peru has been rocked by almost-daily protests and roadblocks for more than two months, a crisis that began in December after Congress impeached President Pedro Castillo Terrones for attempting to illegally impose a one-man rule." And it isn't like the rest of the region is exactly stable. Regional disruption and global supply chains are possible.
I certainly hope so: "China sees Starlink as a serious threat to the current government and its control over the population as well as the effectiveness of their military. That’s no speculation because it’s already happening to Russian forces, often live on TV, in Ukraine."
I'll think this is fine when the Left is fine with cis-female strip shows or even just cis-female stripper story hours on military bases.
I concur: "The U.S. Army must adapt its approach to logistics to prepare for an adversary such as China, military officials say, and the service is taking steps to tackle the challenge, standing up a team tasked to develop capability that will enable troops and large amounts of equipment to deploy even in constantly contested environments." My suggestions for the Army in INDOPACOM rely on better logistics, as I readily admitted in this general and this specific article.
Good: "Arctic Forge 23, a joint month-long Western military exercise in Finland
and Norway, which began on February 16 and concluded on March 17, has
been reported with concern by the Russian media[.]" Russia should be concerned if it decides to wage war on NATO.
This is a problem: "The head of the Maritime Administration “was not at all confident” that all the ships in the Ready Reserve Fleet could be crewed if called to duty in a crisis." There is no power without projection.
I'm conflicted: "President Joe Biden’s 2024 budget proposal would deal a massive blow to
the already strained American Navy—the White House wants to prematurely
retire eight ships and two combat vessels. By taking these ships out of
action, the Navy would lose more than 600 vertical launch missile system[.]" If war is imminent, we need every VLS cell we've got. Will we add more to the ships still in the fleet to make up for lost VLS cells? And reloading is still difficult. But if war is simply a possibility at some point over decades, we need future ships more than current aging ships. Could Modularized Auxiliary Cruisers fill the gap?
Rule of law means that even someone as annoying as Gwyneth Paltrow deserves a fair trial. Nobody should be above the law. But nobody should be beneath it.
To be fair, Russia's definition of "espionage" is so broad that reporting the truth is included: "Russia’s top security agency arrested an American reporter for the Wall Street Journal on espionage charges, the first time a U.S. correspondent was put behind bars on spying accusations since the Cold War." To be really fair, I can't rule out that Russia is right. I'd still want him out, of course.
Nice. But let me know when Ukrainian troops have liberated the city: "Ukraine struck a railway depot and knocked out power in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol deep behind the front lines on March 29[.]"
Activists often make the people they "represent" look like horrible human beings. But hey, they're building on success. Surely you remember the classic observation: "Moslem leaders worried about backlash from tomorrow's terrorist attack."
No! Way! It's like public sector unions don't launder enough taxpayer money for them.
When our ruling class works so hard to wreck the dollar, is it a shock that some states want to replace the dollar? I'm not worried--yet. I believe in the 1970s there were similar movements to dethrone the dollar as the global trade currency. But then we didn't have a rival like China with the global trade heft to bolster it. Still, the EU once hoped its Euro currency would do the job. And that failed. So maybe China with its increasingly toxic reputation pushing decoupling from China will do no better. Tip to Instapundit.
Well thank goodness the well off electric car-owning advocates don't have to use public transportation! "Seattle is installing fentanyl detectors on city buses after operators have gotten sick from fumes emitted by passengers' drugs." These leftist petri dishes for cultivating dysfunction can't fail fast enough, in my opinion. Tip to Instapundit.
The Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine has been a source of support for Russia, both as an institution and because its priests were "widely recruited" by the Russians. Churches were used as safe houses for equipment and personnel. So keep that in mind when you hear Westerners criticizing Ukraine's "suppression of religion" during this war. Also, many Russian assets were unwitting agents, not knowing they supported Russia. Ah, the perils of corruption.
Quite right: "One of the foremost causes of inaccuracy in pre-war military assessments of the likely trajectory of the fighting – both in NATO countries and in the Ukrainian military – stems from the assumption that the Russian forces would conduct a deliberate military offensive." I was right in my longstanding assessment that the Russian military was overrated. But I assumed an actual Russian military offensive in my assessment of what Russia could do, even though I judged Russia would not overrun Ukraine.
In the West, there is a lot of complaining that America didn't plan sufficiently for the post-war in Iraq. I think that accusation is overblown and believed that was in many ways putting the cart before the horse. The real problem was that new enemies invaded Iraq after we overthrew Saddam. Anway, ahem: "The bulk of Russia’s planning [for conquering Ukraine] focused on what to do after the invasion." Oops.
Insurrection: "Gun control activists were seen storming Tennessee's State Capitol Thursday amid rising fears of a left-wing uprising at a rumored protest in Washington, DC." Lock them up. Without bail. In solitary confinement. That's what we do now that we're veering into banana republic territory, right?
I decided I was done with Wuhan Flu vaccine shots in December 2021 when I got my last one. I probably got more protections from my mild case of Covid last year. Unless I hear something that really changes my mind, I'm done. And it would have to involve the Johnson and Johnson vaccine. Which I know I survived. I'm not switching to a new one with potential side effects given the apparent low risk of Covid now. Tip to Instapundit.
Interesting: "Based on its experiences in Chechnya, the planning assumption was that 8% of the population needed to collaborate, whether proactively or under coercion, to enable the counterintelligence regime to be effective. The Ukrainian intelligence community, based on assessments of those areas where the Russians did establish control, concluded that the FSB was broadly correct in its requirements for local support." The Russians understand that a fight for hearts and minds involves appeal and fear. And they're brutal.
I didn't realize that the war in Ethiopia's war in Tigray province--plus Eritrea siding with the Ethiopian government--was so bloody. And I followed what news I saw! This video about Ethiopia's GERD Nile dam says 600,000 died on all sides.
You can tack "humanitarian" on to a Western "intervention" in Ukraine all you want. But it is still a decision to go to war with the Russians. You can say it is just a little bit, with all kinds of restrictions on what Western forces can do. The Russians won't see it that way. Let's not be coy here. That's war. I'm not nearly prepared to go that far. In my view, such a call for humanitarian intervention might as well be a Russian information operation to discourage simply helping Ukrainians fight, lest that escalate to a shooting war between NATO and Russia.
Democrats have sent us into banana republic territory, for sure. But Democrats just need to delay the charges being dismissed as ludicrous by a judge until after the 2024 election. The process is the punishment. I'm sure they can manage that. I fear the obsessed Democrats have unleashed a whirlwind by giving Republicans all the excuse they need to prosecute Democratic Party leaders for alleged crimes. Never say that things can't possibly get worse. Democrats went from MoveOn.org to GrabHold.org real fast.
" ... a trial to prove innocence." That twisting of the foundation of our legal system by a former speaker of the House of Representatives isn't disturbing at all. Tip to Instapundit.
America let China steal a new explosives formula. Which China perfected. And America didn't bother because the West won the Cold War. So we've got that going for us should China try to seize control of the western Pacific. Which is far from nice. Tip to Instapundit.
And now for something completely different:
Nigeria edges toward separatism and civil war. Corruption. Is there nothing it can't destroy?
Japan decides to openly oppose autocratic aggressors.
I think I may have discovered a lacuna in the UN-backed international collective security structure: "Russia is set to take the chair position of a United Nations Security Council meeting as it continues to wage its yearlong war on neighboring Ukraine, drawing criticism from Ukrainian leaders."
Sure, in two or three decades: "The technology sharing agreement meant to help Australia build its own nuclear-powered submarines will help deter China from invading Taiwan, the former head of U.S. Pacific Command said today." Assuming China doesn't capture Taiwan in one or two decades.
An American missile and chain gun air defense UGV.
Seems fair: "The U.S. Air Force isn’t going to buy the hypersonic AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon after the prototyping phase ends, following problems during testing[.]"
Denmark recognizes its military is too weak to meet NATO commitments. It says it will meet 2% defense spending goal by 2030, three years earlier than planned. But six years later than the 2014 alliance pledge set as the deadline.
Just declare victory over Russia and go home? Another entry in the "Let the Wookie win" in Ukraine genre. With the twist that Russia can't possibly lose so let's declare victory and end the war. (So Russia will end the war they are winning?) If Russia goes along, Russia will collect the territorial victory needlessly granted to them; spend a decade rebuilding its army and extending its logistics lines; and relaunch the war to reach Odessa and make a serious stab at taking Kiev. With the warm fuzzy feeling of knowing nuclear threats frighten the West into passivity. Or more worryingly, wrongly believing that is still the case. Mission accomplished, indeed. Bravo, Mr. Davis.
Meanwhile in Syria: "ISIS remains a viable insurgency in Syria that aspires to reestablish a territorial caliphate." The SDF, with American support, is our best ally to contain ISIL in eastern Syria. But is insufficient to defeat ISIL. Assad is not that effective in suppressing ISIL now. And he will also let ISIL run free in areas when it suits his purposes--like destabilizing eastern Syria dominated by the SDF, presumably.
Blowback. Also, is Pakistan finding that supporting Afghanistan Taliban until they achieved victory encouraging and strengthening anti-government Pakistani jihadis?
AI takes over: all but the best writers and artists are hurt most: "But most writers and artists aren’t famous, and aren’t brands, and
are hired simply to do a good enough job, cheaply enough, to meet
client needs. When machines can do the job as well or better for less
money, they’ll be out of work." Machines don't even have to do the job better to win. Honestly, most customers won't know the difference between good and barely adequate--or even awful. But they do recognize price differences. I saw that take place during my career. Not with machines. But the events were parallel.
I've certainly at least suggested that Ukrainian armed resistance in Russian-occupied territory is not as widespread as is sometimes claimed: "Indeed, in most cases, direct action has actually been carried out by the special forces of Ukraine’s special services who are assisted by the resistance movement in their ability to transit and operate in areas." The Russians are brutal. But resistance information about the Russians is valuable. Also, much of Russia's network that was supposed to help overthrow the Ukrainian government and staff a puppet regime is still in place behind Ukrainian lines. But Russia is unable to exploit that information.
Our government conveniently claims the mythical white supremacist movement is the biggest threat of violence in America. Meanwhile, leftists go on a violence spree with nothing but excuses in response.
I heard Scott Adams accurately note that Democrats believe every illegal alien in America is "above the law". "Sanctuary cities" codify that. I feel really dumb for not thinking of that already.
American F-35s gathered a lot of electronic information from Russia's use of weapons against Ukraine.
Iran-Azerbaijan tensions. Iran thinks Azerbaijan should be part of Iran.
Pelosi is rightly being slammed for her tweet about the "right to a trial to prove innocence." The government must prove guilt. A defendant does not need to prove innocence. But just as bad is this part of her tweet: "Hopefully, the former President will peacefully respect the system, which grants him that right." The "system" does not grant that right--well, not even the actual right rather than the fake right Pelosi stated. In fact, as the Declaration of Independence states, all people are "endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights ..." The system has neither the power to grant nor deny those rights. The system must enable those rights. Part of our system in Manhattan is seriously broken. Will the rest of the system rebuke and repair that broken part?
Finding merchant ship crews. Until 90% are replaced with robots, I suppose. Already, that trend has already eliminated many of the crew members.
Many of the complaints about the modern Western tanks being sent to Ukraine seem to revolve around the fact that they can be killed. Having lived through the attack-defense race for a while I remember when any tank could kill any tank. But the tank weight issue for Ukrainian bridges is true and will need to be taken into account when planning operations.
Well, it's FRAUKUS now? But I am totally flummoxed by this plan to save money: "the submarines will be built for-but-not-with (FBNW) torpedo tubes" which could be added in just a few short years. Seriously? Wait. Hmmm. As I continued reading I began to get suspicious. And then the actual acronym: FUKUS. Bravo. Well played. April 1, indeed. Heh. I'm really glad I read to the end.
A report on politicization of the American military: "The panel adopted a narrow focus on readiness, defining it as the ability to accomplish the mission: to deter and fight wars. A military that is distracted from combat readiness and fails to train and prepare adequately for combat because of requirements associated with progressive social justice programs or others outside the military’s set of missions will be under-prepared to fight in conflict. An unpreparedness to fight puts at risk the lives of servicemembers and the national security of the United States." To be fair, distraction could include a lot of BS paperwork that represents bureaucratization's insatiable need for paperwork rather than wokeness.
I noted that when Ukraine improvises it is brilliant. But when Russia does it is desperate. This video looks at the updated T-55s Ukraine is getting from Slovenia. Given losses in a long war, I sure hope we still have our old M-60 series tanks sitting in the desert somewhere.
I ran across a 2010 post of mine noting that electric cars just make us dependent on Chinese raw materials.
I've long warned about our failure to prepare for long conventional wars. I must say my assessment describes Russia pretty accurately in the current war: "On the bright side, I'd bet our potential foes are in even worse shape than we are. So if we can solve this problem we'll eventually prevail as they start hauling out old weapons and ammunition, shooting less, and sending less-trained troops to fight us."
Interesting that Iran assumes we will pressure Israel to stand down rather than pushing us to hammer Iranian assets in Syria: "Recent Iranian attacks on US forces in response to IDF airstrikes suggests a pattern in which Iran retaliates for instances in which IRGC personnel are killed."
"Fact checkers" are just throne sniffers for the left. Tip to Instapundit.
