The Saudis can hardly abandon their reliance on America for security. But the Saudis have served notice with their tentative fling with China that the Saudis can loosen the reliance at America's expense. Iran and China won't gain much.
Neither Iran nor China gained much from the March "China deal" for Saudi Arabia and Iran restoring diplomatic relations:
"The popular image of Saudi Arabia in the United States is that of a largely passive consumer of U.S.-provided security. With the [China brokered Iran-Saudi] agreement, Saudi Arabia cast off the passivity of many decades, and demonstrated it is a diplomatic force to be reckoned with. ...
The week’s worth of events and announcements were sequenced to have a particular effect. The most important was to show that Saudi Arabia has agency over its own future. It did more than hand a diplomatic victory to China, its leading oil customer. It bookended that victory with actions that were meant to appeal to the United States—its leading security provider—and put Israel—a prospective partner—on notice. The Boeing deal reinforced not only that Saudi Arabia is a serious economic player, but also that it is willing to act independently and without an entangling set of diplomatic negotiations and concessions."
As I've said, I think analysts are mostly misreading the agreement. This is not a Chinese diplomatic triumph of "flipping" the Saudis.
I think the Saudis are
firing a warning shot across America's bow. The Saudis don't like America's dismissal of Saudi security worries--which revolve around Iran, which Democrats bizarrely love. The Saudis are saying they aren't just a client of America, totally reliant on American power.
Strategypage writes about our glorious restoration of our reputation abroad since 2021:
Iraq along with Israel, Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf Oil states are angry with the Americans because the U.S. is not only offering Iran a revival of the 2015 sanctions treaty, but also a modification of the terms to make it easier for Iran to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
The Saudis want to change that. But Saudi Arabia has limits to its maneuvering room given its reliance on America to sustain its largely American arsenal.
Still, America isn't unwilling to make a gesture:
The U.S. Navy has launched a submarine capable of carrying a large payload of missiles into the Middle East in an apparent warning directed toward Iran.The boat can carry up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Whether it is a real warning or a mere appearance of determination prior to giving away the store is unclear.
Will the Biden
administration continue its bizarre courting of America-hating Iranian
mullahs at the price of alienating a long-time (if often odious) ally and other friends who don't share the administration's optimism about the potential of mullah-run Iran?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 continues here.
