Let's not talk up the Russia-China unequal relationship into a magical alliance. I don't see China sacrificing anything for Russia. Vassals have lots of limits on the help they will be granted.
Is China really "the fuel" behind Russia's war on Ukraine?
Russia and China know the stakes. Vladimir Putin is obviously all-in on Ukraine, and the Chinese are in full support. It’s apparent, for instance, that China greenlighted the invasion of Ukraine. Russia and China issued their 5,300-word joint statement after Putin met Xi in Beijing on February 4 of last year, just 20 days before Russia’s attack. That’s when they declared the “no-limits” partnership.
“No limits” is not much of an exaggeration. China, with elevated commodity purchases, effectively finances Russia’s war.
Oh, come on! China may have "greenlit" a three-day takeover and three-week mopping up. China most certainly did not sign off on this long war that has been a wake up call for Western rearmament. A war that has highlighted whatever relationship China has with a 21st-century aggressor that has interrupted "Europe's" march to a Euro-Disney of peaceful relationships on the continent.
If China isn't ready for a war against Taiwan any time soon, Russia's war that woke up sleepwalking giants could be very unwelcome indeed for China as Western states fix logistics shortcomings.
As for "financing" Russia's war? China is practically stealing Russian energy and raw materials in a buyer's market.
And direct war support is minimal. I mean, is this more than a pretend alliance?
Tan [the spokesman of the Chinese defense ministry,] said the two countries would deepen military trust and jointly safeguard international fairness and justice.
They will also further organise joint maritime, air patrols and joint exercises, Tan said.
I don't see the two as having an alliance.
Not yet, anyway.
Heck, perhaps China sees an opportunity for revenge for what Russia tried to do to China. I wonder if China has
decided it has an unexpected opportunity to back Russia just enough to keep it fighting to further weaken it in a longer but still losing war.
Remember, China is not Russia's ally:
Beijing, while giving the appearance of supporting Putin’s disastrous war, understands that its real interest is to exploit Russian weakness for its own advantage, whether by securing discounted oil supplies or territorial concessions. In future, this exploitation will be encouraged by the knowledge that, thanks to the heroism of Ukraine’s military forces, a depleted Moscow no longer has the ability to defend itself.
Russia still owns lots of Far East territory taken from China in the 19th century. And Russia is alienating the West when it should be cultivating the West to provide the kind of help the West has been providing to Ukraine now:
Currently, the most likely outcome is that Ukraine does defeat and expel all Russian forces in Ukraine. That will reveal more Russian atrocities against Ukrainian civilians. Russia will be considered a pariah state for some time to come because it is unlikely that it will return more than a million kidnapped Ukrainian civilians including many children.
Sadly, my hopes for a Russian flip to NATO have been crushed by a year of Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine that has alienated NATO. So Russia is on its own.
Or does Putin think there is so much honor among thieves that Russia is special to China? It's almost adorable in its childlike trust. Well, it would be if hundreds of thousands weren't dead, with tens and hundreds of millions harmed directly and indirectly by the Russian invasion, that is.
UPDATE: Limits:
China won’t sell weapons to either side in the war in Ukraine, the country’s foreign minister said Friday, responding to Western concerns that Beijing could provide military assistance to Russia.
NOTE: I used DALL-E to generate the meme picture.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 continues here.
