Sunday, April 09, 2023

Weekend Data Dump

Keeping Stormy Daniels quiet was really a campaign expenditure because Trump didn't want bad stories coming out about him? Really? That's what Democrats are going with? The claim is the media was fawning all over Trump and Trump didn't want to risk losing that? Huh.

Diploma mills go mainstream by dropping grades: "If a student already knew the material before taking the class and got that A, 'they didn't learn anything,' said Greene. And 'if the student came in and struggled to get a C-plus, they may have learned a lot.'" Well that's a whole lot of stupid. If a student already knows the material because of their pre-class initiative, they deserve the A. And if another student only learns during the class to a C+ level, I know which student I want to hire. On the bright side, when Costco starts offering degree programs the cost of higher education will drop dramatically.

Tip to Instapundit.

Rigging a Senate election. Now do the 1960 presidential election. Thank God we have the most secure and honest election system ever devised by mankind now. Well, it wasn't that before the 2020 election according to Democrats who worried Trump would steal the election. But after Biden won, of course. We can all enjoy that warm fuzzy legitimacy feeling all over, right?

What will it take for Biden to unleash rather than muzzle domestic American fossil fuel production? "Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers on Sunday announced surprise cuts totaling up to 1.15 million barrels per day from May until the end of the year, a move that could raise prices worldwide."

NATO admits Finland to the defensive alliance. And right after that, Finnish voters fire their hot prime minister? Talk about bait and switch! Finland is just a bloc tease. I regret nothing!

Friends we haven't tried hard enough to make (tip to Instapundit): "Iran’s judiciary chief has threatened to punish women 'without mercy' if they go in public without the Sharia-mandated hijab or veil." This will never get old, will it?


Israel updates its strike force for Iran missions

South Korea becomes an arsenal of democracy. Korea went from being a draw to a victory in my lifetime; and went from being a consumer of Western security to a provider. Sometimes it takes time to establish a victory.

The throne sniffers wail at the loss of their free Twitter blue checks. Via Instapundit. Don't worry, other sumptuary customs set them apart from the peasantry. 

Significant as to internal government stability? "A well-known Russian military blogger was killed in an explosion at a cafe in St. Petersburg on Sunday, officials said, in what appeared to be an audacious attack on a high-profile pro-Kremlin figure." Dunno.

American help for local allies has taken a third of al Shabaab's territory and inflicted casualties on the jihadis. Is it significant? In six months the jihadis might have it all back. Mowing the grass never ends until the Sunni Islamic world finishes their civil war to decide if nutballs or normals run their religion.

The Saudis are prepared to push their interests with other allies because America isn't interested. The Saudis are unhappy because Biden is trying to side with the friggin' Iranian mullahs, who Democrats bizarrely just love. So don't you dare say the Saudis are too awful to support. The Saudis have a largely American-provided arsenal which limits how much the Saudis can maneuver away. But this is how they try to get us back as allies. Also, the Saudis will never be friends with the Iranians.

American, Japanese, and South Korean navies practice ASW.

Russia will set up a division of their Kraken super weapons. Eek! Hold me!

Oh, the humanity!

The vacation from military history is over: "In short, the armed forces are relearning timeless verities such as: your magazines need to be full of ordnance in case a fight comes along; regenerating combat power demands a vibrant industrial base at home; logistics matters, and any competent foe will menace U.S. resupply routes; and, most elementally, there will always be a next challenger for regional or world supremacy."

If you can't be with the gun you love. Love the gun you're with: Ukraine is using old 100mm KS-19 anti-aircraft guns as direct and indirect fire weapons against ground targets. War finds a way to keep killing. In World War II, Germany's 88mm anti-aircraft gun made a very successful transition to anti-tank gun. 

NATO is looking at providing additional support to Ukraine

It was assigned "beer" at brewing. What of it? Tip to Instapundit.

Democrats finally got their Arrestivus for the activist holiday with the Manhattan indictment against Trump. So prepare for their airing of grievances and feats of "misinformation" strength. And now for something completely different:

We'll see if Alvin Bragg can pin Trump. Nobody else has. Serenity now.

Huh: " Financial Times reported on April 2 that the Russian security services seek to prevent senior officials, ex-officials, and state company executives from traveling abroad [by confiscating passports], indicating that the Kremlin continues to fear elites will flee Russia"

And now for something completely different:


 

So the science says American Indians culturally appropriated European horse-riding practices much earlier than we once thought? Well okey dokey, then. Tip to Instapundit.

Is it too much to wonder if NATO intelligence services have been able to work on Lukashenko to flip Belarus against Putin? Could Belarus declare neutrality and keep the Russians out? Or is the FSB too on the ball to allow that to happen? Just a thought.

The left's drive to censor "disinformation" is a defense of "theirinformation" by suppressing other information. Via Instapundit.

Iran has been busy fomenting regional unrest. But finds the unrest is coming from inside their house

Before the Russians invaded Ukraine I was frustrated with people who said Russia had vast numbers of reserve tanks--you remember those charts--so resistance was futile. I knew that was BS. Now we see that the vast number of tanks in reserve are incapable of fighting.

Russia's Black Sea fleet has taken some damage in the war and has failed to really affect the war. But the main damage to the Russian navy is from the need to fix the air force and repair the ground forces. Plus sanctions. What's left for the navy? There's one part of their navy I want to work--just to have a hope of easing their paranoia.

If Russia's objective in invading Ukraine and denying it membership in the West is to prevent the Russian people from seeing that there is an alternative to living in a Russia that sucks, just how do we concede enough to Russia to maintain peace? 

I'm eager to defeat Russia in Ukraine. I have a long history of opposing Russian imperial ambitions. But Democrats' rabid and sudden conversion to seeing Russians under every bed in every meme and tweet has a shameful history. Tip to Instapundit.

CENTCOM makes a good ISIL jihadi in Syria.

LOL! Tip to The Morning Briefing.

The real protected class

As the U.S. seeks to disperse assets across the western Pacific to contain Chinese military moves, the Philippines grants American forces access to four more locations.

Good: "The latest Block V Tactical Tomahawk integrates a new generation of technical advances enabling the weapon to hit moving ships at sea." But the question is whether the slow missiles can penetrate ship missile defenses. On the bright side, it comes in low. And has a long range.

An additional large military aid package for Ukraine. Equipment and ammunition to sustain an offensive, it seems. I assume a lot of the ammunition is meant to assure Ukraine it can use what it has now because more is on the way. And some of the ammo is Russian/Soviet caliber. I wonder where we got that?

Rival governments in Libya pretend they have sole power. So just like the EU.

How the Fuck-Up Fairy spent his time in Russia. People like to say Russia can't afford to end the war without victory. So we should just let Ukraine die. At the moment Russia can't admit defeat. But at some point if Russia continues screwing the pooch, ending the war with retreat may seem like the best outcome Russia can get.

After six years of hysterical predictions of a Trumptatorship complete with death camps for undesirables, the Democrats finally nailed him for *checks notes* business paperwork violations. TDR has obtained actual footage of eager Democrats seeing the charges for the first time.

That's quite the precedent for a lot of New Yorkers of all political persuasions, don't you think? This is nothing to brag about.

The Anschluss continues: "The Kremlin will likely attempt to coerce Belarus into further Union State integration when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko meet in Moscow on April 5 and 6. " Can Lukashenko reverse this while Putin is busy in Ukraine? Might be his best shot.

Huh. Still not the new and improved Taliban 2.0 we were promised: "The United Nations head has strongly condemned a Taliban ban on Afghan women working for the organisation. " Once more:


Keeping the F-22 in the fight until 2030 will cost money.

Even as Putin claims he has to rescue neighbors and bring them into the loving arms of Holy Mother Russia by force no matter what the cost, Russians get the hell out of Putin's Russia while they can. Including (via Instapundit) technology workers. Winning.

Huh: "Naval forces from Egypt and Sudan have completed joint military drills at the naval base of Port Sudan on the Red Sea, amid mounting fears of military escalation in light of the deadlocked talks on a controversial dam Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile River." Would Sudan really cooperate with Egypt to bomb the GERD dam? 

I find it amusing that just as the Army's Fort Bragg is being renamed to erase the Confederate general's name, Democrats are celebrating Alvin Bragg for indicting Trump. Shouldn't he change his name to Alvin Liberty?

Max Boot identifies another country where "real communism" apparently hasn't been tried. FFS. What is his major malfunction these days?

I think there should be a Reverse Godwin's Law that discourages comparison of a level of government persecution to how the Romans arrested and killed Jesus.

Pretty fair. Mostly. I remain grateful he kept Hillary! out of the White House in 2016. I'm saddened he let Biden inside in 2020. All I'm really sure about is that he'd be better than whoever the Dems put up in 2024. Yet I still hope someone else wins the Republican primary. But I have no hate. Not for Trump, his supporters, or those who hate Trump. I only want transparent and honest registration and election machinery.

I know I'm not an astronomer. But am I the only one whose eyebrow arches when I read about exoplanets that orbit their star in 1.7 days? Tip to Instapundit. These extremely short orbits are reported all the time. Or do our instruments and methods have a serious flaw that is undiscovered? This is almost certainly just my ignorance. But still.

Good Lord. I'm glad I don't need this stuff. By the time I do I hope we make it at home. Via Instapundit.

How an actual patriarchy protects its own

Finland will join a NATO exercise featuring the largest trans-Atlantic movement the Air National Guard has done.

Limits? Oh Hell yeah: "Chinese Ambassador to the EU Fu Cong stated on April 5 that the Russian–Chinese joint statement declaring there were 'no limits' to their ties released in February 2022 was misrepresented, calling 'no limits' a 'purely rhetorical statement.' Fu added that China does not support Russia’s war in Ukraine and is not providing Russia weapons." 

Speaking of the American equipment to sustain a Ukrainian offensive in that latest package: "That equipment—armored recovery vehicles, tank-transporters, fuel tankers and armored bridgelayers—arguably is even more critical [than the Western tanks] to the success of any counteroffensive." Yeah, as I've noted, the Western tanks will help, but Ukraine's Soviet models have to do the heavy lifting. And it will be interesting to see how the lightly armored Leopard Is hold up.

It's the threat of tomorrow. And always will be. It seems like our government is trying to create that threat.

China's Fujian province says it will enforce China's claims to control the Taiwan Strait and will potentially board ships. Taiwan says it will not comply. That could get sticky.

Did General Milley's word choice in Congressional testimony represent a retreat on our formal policy opposing Iran's drive for nuclear weapons? I assume so despite Pentagon denials. Because his bosses looooove the mullah-run country.

Macron (and his future deputy emperor, the EU's head of the European Commission) visited China and urged them to rein in Putin. Xi urged no nuclear proliferation (Belarus). He doesn't want his own neighbors like South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam to get that idea, too. But at this point, doesn't a weaker Russia give China more room to expand influence in Central Asia (once part of the USSR) and Russia's Far East taken from China in the 19th century) at Russia's expense?

China spies on us with a balloon. America belatedly shoots down the balloon. And China is mad at us? We won't fall for this and offer concessions, will we? Tip to Instapundit.

Macron and his EU sidekick vising China seem more interested in helping China than stopping Russia from further harming Ukraine. Ah, nuance. Has Macron humiliated himself and the EU? Maybe. But kowtowing to Xi is a small price to pay to negotiate with China--with negotiations the goal with no particular interest in an outcome--for the real prize of European power.

Is Iran prodding its friends? "Palestinian militants fired a barrage of rockets early Thursday, setting off air raid sirens in southern Israel, as violence erupted for the second day in a row during a sensitive period of overlapping holidays."

Russia's economy seems to be running into problems coping with Western sanctions. Is this where China might be willing to help? 

Ukrainian success--if Ukraine is successful, I assume nothing--will risk splitting its friends. Well, yes. It was easy to unite on helping Ukraine survive the invasion. I'm reasonably sure most aided Ukraine on the assumption that Russia would conquer Ukraine pretty quickly. S o only a short period of aid would ease their consciences.

Wonderful (via Instapundit): "Most college students say they’re reluctant to discuss controversial topics in classroom settings, and they cite fear of peer retribution as the biggest reason why, according to a new survey." It's like they are perpetually in Room 101 and would say anything or denounce anyone to avoid the figurative ravenous rats of social cancellation. On the bright side, the woke are destroying most colleges. On the dark side, I don't know if we can contain the destruction to that narrow slice of the country.

At this point I think I'd like to see DeSantis or Haley win the presidency in 2024, and have either appoint Trump to be Attorney General to purge the activist partisans from the DOJ--and FBI, in particular.

Well, we're on a different road than China. I guess we'll find out who is on the wrong one: "China vowed reprisals against Taiwan after a meeting between the United States House speaker and the island's president, saying Thursday that the U.S. was on a 'wrong and dangerous road.'"

LOL "Many have derided KJP as being so dense that light bends around her." Never heard that one! 

Venezuela wants to absorb oil-rich territory in Guyana: "The United Nations' highest court ruled Thursday that it can hear a case between South American neighbors Guyana and Venezuela about a border dispute that dates back to 1899." This ruling is a defeat for Venezuela. 

Russia is reportedly forming hastily trained "Storm Z" companies of reservists for urban combat and attaching them to their regiments and brigades. They are like rounds of ammunition. Fire them at the enemy and when used up, replace them with another. Sucks to be Russian soldiers. Seriously, how much longer will Russian men keep marching into the meat grinder?

The China-brokered normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is aiding incorporation of Syria back into the Arab world. Assad has cover now to move toward the Arab world. The Saudi effort to pull Syria away from Iran's orbit pre-dates the China role. So once again, I'll say that Saudi Arabia is not flipping to China. The Saudis are pursuing their own interests after determining that America suddenly stands in the way of that.

The Army's new weapons depot in Powidz, Poland. Enough for an armored brigade. REFORPOL becomes a reality.

Sure, democracies shouldn't want the top wolf to cut away a small democracy from the herd. Taiwan should create and host the League of Democracies. It might be Taiwan's best defense.

They effed up. They trusted the media. And worse, they implemented policy based on their gross error. Tip to Instapundit.

The Biden administration shrugs its shoulders at the China Middle East deal: "As Washington denizens look toward the Middle East and see China brokering diplomatic deals between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the surprising general response has been: One less thing for us to worry about." The Saudis will need to be more aggressive to reverse the administration's unrequited love for mullah-run Iran. I'm not worried about China's move as a foundation to dominate the region. It's built on sand. I'm worried about the administration's odd love of the mullahs.

The dollar isn't dead as a global currency. Sure. But the canary is coughing in the coal mine. Get our financial and economic house in order before worse happens. Tip to Instapundit.

China prepares to invade Taiwan: "China deployed an aircraft carrier strike group off Taiwan’s east coast, military officials in Taipei and Tokyo confirmed Thursday." By rehearsing the SINKEX that will distract and delay the United States Navy.

Russia experiences blowback from invading Ukraine. I really do suspect that Putin is in shock. Finland is only one aspect. Putin may have thought his short and glorious war in Ukraine would enable him to end the Ukraine Question on his terms without alienating the West for too long. That would have let him pivot to face China and begin to end Russia's vassal status. I mean, the option to make friends in the West was there. Oops. Winning.

If Russia produced weapons and trained troops with the same skill they produce over-heated scary rhetoric, I'd worry.

The "climate" won't defeat our Army. But enemies will have a field day. Just "slightly" damaging an EV battery is enough to total it. FFS.

Reasons American men medically could not serve in the Army in World War I. Prosperity fixed a lot of those problems before prosperity created new ones.

Did American intelligence screw up and let information on Ukraine's troops and equipment get stolen? Or was it doctored and leaked to confuse the Russians about Ukraine's capabilities. It could go either way.

An Australian defense and security expert urged the Philippines to fortify Thitu (Pag-asa) Island in the Spratly Islands.

Did Russian technicians sabotage Slovakian Mig-29s being given to Ukraine?

Remember those fires in the summer of 2020 that just sort of happened? In a few more years the media will blame climate change for the fires. Tip to Instapundit.

It's a bird! It's a plane! It's ... a small Taiwanese AESA radar that can tell the difference between a bird and a UAV.

Mark Moyar's book on Vietnam--we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. That's been my view since I was an undergrad--but maybe earlier. All I can say for sure is that I argued that in an undergrad discussion section. I wrote about his first book in the planned trilogy. I'm nearly done with the second and it is heartbreaking to read how badly we hurt North Vietnam and how our intelligence saw virtually none of that. Only Allah knows, eh? (And go here for the original (“Information Dominance” (Posted November 13, 2004)) and not the Yahoo!Geocities link in the 2005 post.)

The first step: "The U.S. Army is preparing to put its logistics tail to the test in the Indo-Pacific, considered the most challenging operational theater in the world by service officials." Well, not a corps-level test. Which I want. See here and here for articles on that issue.

More on the purported Pentagon document leak/theft regarding Ukraine (and other places, it seems) here and here. I have no basis to judge if this is American disinformation or an American intelligence failure.

Are Democrat-run cities dying? If so, it's a murder-suicide pact between Democratic politicians and their voters. I'm tired of caring more than they apparently do.


Big. If true. I'll wait for non-Ukrainian sources for this indication that Russia's army is teetering. And define "surging".

Old Soviet army training lingers on in the older Ukrainian officers. And many Western-trained officers have died in the war. We'll see how that plays out in a multi-division counteroffensive. 

We're using Western weapons to defeat our self-proclaimed enemy Russia which is invading Ukraine. So it must be time for an Eisenhower "military-industrial complex" article! People forget his caveat about the imperative need for that complex. Nor does the author correctly describe our fragmented war-making authority. Do we really want formal declarations of war for anything short of a repeat of World War II?

Want.

 

Russia's strategic warfare against Ukraine's energy infrastructure failed to freeze Ukraine over the winter. And now we have this evidence of failure: "Ukraine is able to export electricity for the first time in six months as its energy infrastructure recovers from months of repeated Russian attacks." Ukraine's civilians essentially protected Ukraine's military from attacks that otherwise could have been made on it.

I really enjoy the Levi 501 commercial that talks about the jeans reaching Jamaica, where Jamaicans "made it their own." Bravo. Not even one moment spent on condemning "cultural appropriation" or "cultural imperialism." But perhaps social media has already condemned this without my knowledge, I admit.

Citing Ukraine's ability to export electricity, ISW judges "Russia’s missile campaign to degrade Ukraine’s unified energy infrastructure has failed definitively, and Russia appears to have abandoned the effort." Russia seemingly recognized this a month ago.

Russia increasingly portrays their Ukrainian conquests as part of Russia. Will Russian troops fight to hold that territory?

The Ukraine intelligence hack/leak includes CIA intelligence on Iran and North Korea, among other areas. Russians appear to have doctored them to make the Ukraine situation look more favorable to Russia. So maybe Russia doesn't believe them and just used them for propaganda? Really don't know. 

This will be a big test of Iranian sincerity in that hyped China deal: "Saudi officials were in Yemen's capital Sunday for talks with the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, as part of international efforts to find a settlement to Yemen’s nine-year conflict, officials said."

Malaysia said it will defend its territorial rights in the South China Sea, notwithstanding China's expansive claims.