Squeezing Iran

When the United States and Israel struck Iran earlier this year, I assumed we wanted a short military campaign. We either spark and enable an internal revolt against the mullah regime that ends the 47-year war; or we settle for a punitive campaign that hammers Iran's military, nuclear infrastructure, and industry. Just one campaign in a war that goes on. We did not get a revolt. And we held back from really hammering Iran broadly. And this is not brief. Now we blockade and squeeze a weakened Iran financially to pressure it into agreeing to terms we find acceptable.

This claim by the author is ridiculous after Trump eased off on declaring victory over Iran:

“We are low keying it,” [Trump] told Axios in an interview Sunday, describing an approach built on economic pressure rather than new strikes. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.” Asked about the standoff, he added: “It will work out. It always works out. It’s like a chess game.”

That is not a fifth declaration of victory. It is something more evasive: a retreat from measurable claims to an open-ended assertion that patience will eventually work — a proposition that cannot be disproved on any timetable the White House has identified. 

This is all just a demand for a perfect plan that can be judged on the plan's timetable. War isn't like that. The enemy gets a vote, and all that. America wanted to liberate France in 1943. We (America, Britain, and Canada, mainly) landed in 1944. 

The Armistice of November 11, 1918 didn't formally end World War I. It took a British blockade to finally break the German resistance to admitting defeat. That's what we are doing. We've started to blockade Vienna. So let's blockade Vienna.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from The Australian.

When the Moon Hits Your Sky Like an Eyepiece to Spy, that's PLA

The American-Chinese rivalry over the Moon is focused on the south pole. America walked away from the moon. I hope our experience of walking and driving (cars and golf balls) on the Moon half a century ago is still useful to win this space race.

The race is on for the Moon's south pole:

The region is already the linchpin for US and Chinese ambitions because scientists believe it to be home to water ice. This crucial in-space resource can be converted into rocket fuel, breathable air or drinking water — all vital to sustaining an extraterrestrial settlement.

Both the United States and China plan to send robotic explorers to the south pole later this year, paving the way for human explorers to follow close behind. 

America and its partners had best win this race. I'm not eager for an unblinking Red Moon peering down at us. I do have confidence that our private sector main effort will ultimately prevail over China's Five-Year Moon Plans. 

There will inevitably be a military component (and don't forget SMOD!). Make sure China's People's Liberation Army can't draw a dashed line around the Moon as its "historical" territory.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from Arches National Park by Elliot McGucken. Whew. Took me a while to remember where I tucked that credit away for when I needed it.

USTRANSCOM Prime Same-Say Delivery?

Sometimes we act as if money is limitless for defense projects. 

Oh? 

The Air Force Research Laboratory has added $11.7 million to a Blue Origin contract aimed at exploring how commercial rockets could be used to transport military supplies around the world, expanding the agreement to about $13 million.  

Am I the one taking crazy pills? 

Or does the Pentagon get free streaming videos, too?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. 

Is the War on Islamist Terrorism at the End of the Beginning?

I won't dare say we are at the beginning of the end of the war on Islamic terror. But did we pass peak political Islam?

I said that the Arab Spring gave Moslems a choice other than rule by mullahs or autocrats. Mullahs and not democrats exploited the sudden weakness of autocrats. What happens when mullahs are discredited? Will democrats finally get a chance to plant seeds of change? Or will autocrats storm back into power? Until they lose credibility again. 

Big, if true: 

“The strange death of political Islam” is an idea that’s in the air at the moment. Rule by clerics, and by others who claim to speak in the name of God, is going out of fashion in the Islamic world. The New York Times carried an essay on this in June by its expert Middle East correspondent, Ben Hubbard. After the Arab Spring, he writes, there were many attempts to govern strictly according to Islamic principles. They failed. And so “political Islam in the region has withered.”

I’ve certainly noted the long silence of the once-feared “Arab street” in favor of the Palestinians. Is that part of the trend?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

Return of Army Forces to Where?

Congress wants the Army to determine where it should maintain pre-positioned stocks to resist any Russian aggression in the West after the Winter War of 2022 finally ends. An author wants the end-of-war scenario to decide the question. I think Poland is the site regardless of the outcome.

The Army must decide where to put pre-positioned stocks in Europe: 

Army Prepositioned Stocks (APS) serve as a tool for operational reach, reducing the time between strategic decisions and ground combat power in the European theater. Their value depends entirely on what Russia does after Ukraine and what EUCOM needs to answer it. Geography-first framing skips that step. 

I think the Black Sea is a cauldron of death for Russian power projection across the seas that distracts NATO from the main front of the Baltic States and Poland regardless of the scenario. And Russia's Kaliningrad is the obvious first offensive mission for NATO regardless of where Russia strikes.

Therefore, Poland remains the place for Army stocks, as I have argued since Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Resumes Its Usual Programming

 

Russia weathered the storm of Ukraine’s ground counter-attacks and Russia has picked up its pace of gaining ground. The Russian casualties are still heavy. And Ukraine still counter-attacks. But the break in the pattern in Ukraine’s favor beginning early this year did not expand into something bigger for Ukraine. Will armored vehicles return to close combat as each side adapts to massed drones? Will new North Korean troops provide the punch to set tanks loose past Ukraine’s defensive belts?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: A Super Power's Got to Know its Limitations

In case you missed it on Substack: Rethinking the Defiant-Class Battleship

In case you missed it on Substack: Is America's Ten-Year Rule Ending?

In case you missed it on Substack: Why We Should Care About Iranian Nutballs With Nukes

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section. 

Putin Flings Nuclear Poo and Beats His Chest

Putin has turned the nuclear threat dial to eleven. Which is more than ten, he warns ominously.

Okay, so Russia had another nuclear exercise in May 2026 that complemented other threatening acts to intimidate the West:

In particular, the May 2026 exercise was surrounded by other Russian actions that were intended to intimidate the West. As Russian expatriate Pavel K. Baev wrote, “Moscow’s recent nuclear brinkmanship includes missile tests, military exercises and another Oreshnik strike near Kyiv.” In June 2026, Russia staged a threatening nuclear-capable bomber patrol near NATO territory. Also in June 2026, the U.K. Royal Navy disclosed that “…it maintained a continuous, three-month surveillance operation on Russian warships navigating UK waters, including a frigate that fired a warning shot at a British yacht.”

Is it just me or do Russia's repeated nuclear threats seem extremely hollow and detached from the sad reality of Russian military readiness? 

Seriously, in what strategic world does Poseidon make sense unless Russia's ICBMs are mostly inert stage props for Nuclear Brinksmanship Theater? Heck, is China the intended audience of this Russian resolve to defend its territory with nukes?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Drones Get More Expensive

As drone counter-measures to cheap attack drones enter the battlefield, as I expected drones have to get more complicated to survive rather than rely on mass. The Russians have a jet-powered drone that is expensive enough to be termed a "loitering munition."

Russia is using a more capable suicide drone, as a Bloomberg article described:

Russian forces aim to use the Banderol to fill the gap between their cheap, slow Shahed-type drones and the faster and more accurate Kh-101 cruise missiles. Vlasiuk noted that the cheap Banderol drones contain a 150-kilogram warhead that is bigger than a Shahed warhead and that the Banderol can fly faster than Ukrainian drone interceptors. Bloomberg added that the Banderol has a relatively short range of a few hundred kilometers, so Russian forces have been launching strikes on Odesa City from occupied Crimea. 

Russia decided that simply building more of the lower capability Shahed-type drones wouldn't work as well as supplementing the mass with a higher quality suicide drone in lower numbers. 

Perhaps in response the drone interceptors will have to get better enough to become reusable fighter drones rather than suicide drones, as I speculated about years ago in Army magazine.

As for the Banderol suicide drone being promoted to a loitering munition, continue that line of thought.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Russian Rulers Remain Russia's Worst Enemy

Russia creates enemies where it had none.Yet their mental health issues are our national security problem now.

A Russian strategist’s "central claim is that the war in Ukraine is not primarily a contest over spheres of influence in Eastern Europe. It is a wider struggle over whether the West can impose its will on Russia.”

FFS. The West has no interest in imposing its will in Russia. After the Cold War the West frankly didn’t think that much about Russia before Putin got aggressive in Europe. Now we care. And rearm.

Yet Russian nukes obviously provide Russia with a level of physical security. But Putin has wrecked its conventional military making Russia more vulnerable to Chinese pressure; and risks a time of troubles inside Russia. 

The strategist says Russia must go all-in to win in Ukraine as the first step to not succumbing to the West's desire to impose its will on Russia. Are the Russian people willing to go on that Viking funeral ride to defeat Ukraine's military and then go on to wage a bigger and longer war against the West? And is that course of action really going to deter China? Or will it embolden China? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Buffer Russia Really Needs

Russia is a regional military power with continents-spanning borders. Even before Russia wrecked its military trying and failing to quickly conquer Ukraine, Russia's conventional forces were inadequate for their long borders. Russia needs nukes to deter invasion. Russia's pucker factor is rising in the Arctic.

If the Arctic ice truly is melting, Russia could get economic benefits--but new military vulnerability:

Russia plans to capitalize on the economic benefit of arctic trade, is increasing its military presence in the region, and is leveraging its dominance to conduct disruptive gray zone activity against US allies. But the retreat of arctic ice may not work entirely in Russia’s favor. As the ice melts, Russian nuclear weapons are becoming more vulnerable. Allies must thread the needle between appropriately exploiting this vulnerability, and avoiding Russian overreaction.

I have worried about Russian paranoia over their nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) sea bastions that protect the most survivable element of Russia's nukes that are the ultimate defense of Russia's long borders, their nuclear missiles. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article.

Reconstituting Combat Ineffective Units

In post-Cold War limited wars, either in size and time for conventional campaigns or in intensity for counter-insurgency missions, the U.S. Army hasn't had to worry about reconstitution in anything but post-war action or via scheduled troop rotations, respectively. Great Power Competition ground combat will chew up units in ways we haven't experienced in a long time.

This is excellent: 

Despite publishing new reconstitution doctrine in 2021, the US Army lacks a clear operational-level model for reconstituting formations during combat.¹ The core challenge is how theater armies generate, restore, and integrate combat power while sustaining momentum against a peer adversary. 

To address this gap, US Army Europe and Africa (USAREUR-AF) developed a theater-level reconstitution concept that serves as the foundation for this article. The concept emerged from recent operational planning and exercise analysis and represents the first detailed framework in decades focused on rebuilding combat power during large-scale combat operations. Designed for theater armies, it provides a practical model for regenerating divisions.

Whatever else we may say about the poor quality of Russia's ground forces invading Ukraine, Russia is reconstituting their units to keep fighting the war they are in. The author looks to Amereican World War II and Ukrainian Winter War of 2022 examples.

One lesson is that we don't have the volume of maneuver units to have the luxury of pulling depleted units back to safe sanctuaries to reconstitute them. Reconstitution may have to take place on or near the front. 

We need to prepare now to fight the kind of campaign we want to fight for as long as it takes to win. If not, we may reconstitute at the level Russia is achieving and be forced to fight a Russian-style campaign. Without the willingness to lose lots of troops. Which means we lose the war. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Figure from the article. 

The Winter War of 2022 Hopes Quagmire is the Path to Victory

 

Russia’s war is dragging on with heavy casualties and damage to Russia’s economy. Putin seems to be edging toward mobilization of civilian reserves to compensate for insufficient recruiting evident this year. Ukraine may be winning right now, but it is nowhere near a decisive edge. And Ukraine is suffering tremendously. Will Putin be able to add to the pressure with mobilization and finally break Ukraine on the ground? Or will mobilization break Russia’s home front in its core European region and make internal unrest far more dangerous for Putin than Ukraine is?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Mostly Peaceful Human Wave Assault on Spain

In case you missed it on Substack: The Transparent Battlefield Arrives!

In case you missed it on Substack: Looking For Mr. Good Cohesion

In case you missed it on Substack: Plan B in the Eastern Mediterranean Takes Shape

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section. 

Big Air Force Fighter Drones?

The first Fury pilot-less fighter jet for the Air Force was built. Is this an evolutionary dead end?

High-end Air Force drone fighter planes:

Fury, also designated the FQ-44, is Anduril’s semi-autonomous fighter aircraft being developed for the US Air Force. In June, the Air Force selected Anduril to move the aircraft into production, bringing the programme closer to operational deployment. 

Sometimes I wonder if this kind of loyal wingman that an expensive piloted plane controls to go where it is too risky for crew is an evolutionary dead end. Except for niche missions. For general purpose missions, should we just have cheap flying missile-trucks carrying expensive, very maneuverable air-to-air missiles for air superiority missions? Or carrying longer range air-to-ground missiles for ground strike missions?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

Our Fearsome Planes are Sitting Ducks in CONUS

Using the example of Ukraine's Spider Web attack on Russian airfields is a bit of a problem for justifying better air base defenses in the Continental United States (CONUS). Except for our strategic bomber bases that would justify extreme defenses, I want more basic things first for ordinary air bases.

NORAD: 

Air Force bases inside the U.S. are heavily guarded, but they could fall victim to the same type of spectacular drone attack that struck bomber bases deep inside Russia last year[.]

True. But the Ukraine attack was a special forces strike that took 18 months to execute. 

Start with the basics and expand that:

I am fully onboard the need for ground-based air defense and more basic air base protection measures.

And grant me that I recognized the base defense problem that small drones would pose. And that was before they were armed with explosives and got longer range. 

CONUS is no longer a sanctuary. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from this article.

Hammer of the Gods?

I hope the name doesn't mean we are counting on a silver bullet electronic warfare system to win battles. But if it is simply a useful hammer in the tool kit, I'm okay with that.

The Navy, Army, and Space Force are testing a new electronic warfare system:

Because Hammer of the Gods keeps a low electromagnetic signature, meaning it does not broadcast in a way that makes it easy for an enemy to detect and target, it can push forward into contested areas and deliver what the Army describes as multi-domain effects at the forward edge of operations, essentially projecting electronic warfare capability into the thick of a fight rather than staying safely in the rear.

If it is a defensive weapon, you'd just mount it on your ship or on a vehicle in a platoon, no? 

It sounds like the weapon is supposed to get close to the enemy to crack open their defenses by breaking down their cohesion based on accurate Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems to make them vulnerable to our own combined arms attack:

It is an emitter, a piece of hardware that broadcasts electromagnetic signals, built to deliver an expanded suite of command-and-control capabilities alongside a wider set of electronic warfare functions from a highly deployable, low-signature platform. 

I get the Army and Navy. But how is Space Force going to use it? In space against space targets? Dropped from orbit to support Navy and Army forces in combat like the old Rods from God idea? (Even though back then I thought the idea was gold-plated nonsense when precision weapons launched closer to or on the Earth were much cheaper.)

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article.

Spreading Out the Attack Helicopters?

Is spreading out Army helicopters on ships and remote sites the means of sustaining air power in the face of lethal threats to airfields?

An Army Apache attack helicopter operated from the deck of a Navy amphibious warfare ship:

The demonstration shows how the U.S. military is increasing the mobility and survivability of its attack aviation by enabling Apaches to operate from ships, islands and expeditionary sites, complicating an adversary’s ability to target a limited number of fixed airfields across the Indo-Pacific.

If the Army wants more sea platforms for its Apaches, may I suggest The AFRICOM PACOM Queen, that I discussed in Military Review? 

As long as we have these helicopters in our arsenal, sure. Dispersing assets will help. Unless enemy cheap missiles and drones are numerous enough to find and strike any potentially suitable flat area or ship within helicopter range. 

In the long run, drones may be superior to attack helicopters. Even if the drones aren't cheap suicide drones because of the need to put expensive counter-measures on the drones to survive expanding defenses.  

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Picture from the initial article. 

Spanish Civil War in a Hard Drive

The Germans and Italians learned a lot of lessons from the Spanish Civil War before World War II by sending expeditions to fight and learn lessons about weapon design and tactics. Ukraine has made that kind of experience something they can sell without the buyer spending lives by sending an expedition.

That's interesting:

The mass of recorded data generated by the Ukraine conflict is strategically and tactically invaluable for the United States and its allies. ... 

Few militaries have fought a high-intensity drone war at this scale, giving Ukraine an unmatched volume of combat data for training military AI. Successful strikes show AI what works. Failed missions reveal how Russian electronic warfare, camouflage, weather, or air defenses defeated a drone, allowing future software to adapt faster.

That is powerful information that provides Ukraine leverage in defense industry collaboration and diplomacy.

Truly, that which does not kill you makes you stronger. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Ponders Insurrection

 

Putin insists the war must go on until Ukraine is defeated. He may mobilize civilian reservists to make a bigger effort to finally win. Perhaps the war will go on. But could Putin’s fate be the measure of what the main front in the war is about?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: China's Indirect "Chain of Justice" War to Capture Taiwan

In case you missed it on Substack: Zumwalt Goes to War

In case you missed it on Substack: Extended Nuclear Deterrence

In case you missed it on Substack: Combined Arms Remains Supreme

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Hiding in Plain Sight

Ukraine has designed aerial suicide drones that mimic flocks of birds to penetrate Russian air defenses. Did I call it, or what?

Well, mimicking birds on radar: 

The latest Ukrainian innovation is mechanical birds capable of destroying ground targets. Ukrainian engineers designed, developed, and fabricated a swarm of biomimetic drones that resemble a flock of migrating birds.

Man, I was all over this method a decade ago when discussing infantry ("slugs") on the future battlefield I described:

Anybody on the battlefield, whether Scouts or Slugs (especially), called being outside of a protected space “on top of the world.” Normally you had to dig underground while unobserved and not move (or emit) a muscle thereafter; move low and slow like random animal life; sit still in the open for no more than 3 minutes; or be encased in heavy armor, active defenses, and stealthiness to avoid being a bright strobing target pip on every Hostile’s screen. [emphasis added]

And here we are in 2026 with weapons mimicking wild life.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.