NATO does not need to emphasize the Black Sea militarily. A larger NATO presence would not have deterred Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
No:
More strategic focus [by America and NATO] needs to be on the Black Sea as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, a panel of experts said during a Center for European Policy Analysis discussion Tuesday.
The U.S. and NATO’s lack of focus on the Black Sea allowed Russia to pursue aggressive goals, like its invasion into Ukraine, said Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
First of all, the idea that NATO power in the Black Sea would have deterred Russia from invading Ukraine is unsupported by any evidence. Russian naval and air weakness plus energetic Ukrainian defenses even from their meager resources prevented Russia from using their naval power to affect the invasion. As that article notes, Ukraine's destruction of one Russian capital ship sent the rest of the Russian navy back to port for its own safety. How much more does NATO need to add to contain Russia?
And how would that added NATO power have countered Putin's belief that a quick victory parade by his vaunted legions would crush Ukraine before NATO could respond--if it dared?
Unless you are suggesting that NATO should have threatened war, why would Russia have paid attention to the NATO vessels other than repeatedly buzzing those NATO ships from air bases around the Black Sea?
I think it is perfectly possible to make the Black Sea a fiery cauldron for the Russian navy from NATO territory around the Black Sea.
Which isn't so bad because Russia's ability to enter or exit the Black Sea is highly constrained by the convention. And even if Turkey lets Russia use the straits notwithstanding Turkey's NATO status, NATO bases in the Balkans and Crete will destroy any Russian fleet elements trying to leave or enter the Black Sea.
And worse, NATO emphasis on the Black Sea is a potential distraction from controlling and using the Baltic Sea to defend Poland, the Baltic states, and soon Finland and Sweden.
The Black Sea is a minor NATO front whose only usefulness is distracting Russia from the main front west and northwest of Russian-controlled Belarus.
Ukraine is proving to be a formidable enemy of Russia that alone will make sure Russia has to devote resources to a secondary front that is no immediate threat to NATO.
Although if Russia conquers Ukraine by hook or crook, by all means revisit that issue. But we're not dumb enough to fail to keep Russia as far east as possible, are we?
One day Russia will be ready to be part of the West instead of looking for--and naturally "finding"--Western hostility and plots. We're clearly not there yet, as much as I've hoped a post-Soviet leadership would move Russia there.
NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
