Sunday, September 18, 2022

Weekend Data Dump

Liberals are comparing the January 6th riot to 9/11 (the first one, not the second one--although details have changed, the basics are constant)??! "I mean, if the 1/6 attacks had involved the destruction of the Capitol by America-hating Islamists, lefties would be making excuses and blaming America." Exactly. I prefer to ask, "Why do we hate us?".

After 9/11, we set up a domestic security agency to fight foreign jihadis. And now that entrenched bureaucracy has decided it is easier--and convenient to Democrats--to include certain American "enemies" in its threat list.

In the long run, Europe can adjust to Russia's decision to stop exporting energy to it. But is Europe already able to cope?

I'm not going to say I don't admire the guts of those who travel long distances to enter America illegally for a better life. But follow the rules and stand in line with the rest.

Russia struck Ukraine's power grid

In the last war update I noted that satellites and drones didn't prevent Ukraine from achieving surprise on the Kharkov front. Which is amazing if Ukraine outnumbered the Russian defenders 8:1, as the Russians claimed. This emphasizes that surprise is achieved in the enemy's mind and not on what they see.

Biden seems to have repeatedly gotten Covid. If life was a movie, Vice President Harris would know by now she's not going to be selected to run to replace Biden in 2024. Wouldn't the movie plot have Harris exposing herself to the virus and having close contact with Biden as much as possible? In real life, I don't think Harris would do that. She's many things but I have no reason to think she's evil. But in real life is it really out of bounds to think someone in her circle who hitched their career to her star might be enough of a sociopath to attempt that? They'd know that only being vice president when the president dies will get her into the Oval Office. Again, I'm just spitballing here. For a movie plot.

The Ukrainians may have captured many Russian troops in their Kharkov counteroffensive. At first I thought this might be an opportunity for Ukraine to trade for their POWs. But perhaps not if the experience of Russian POWs trying to go home after World War II. Putin won't want witnesses to defeat going home now.

It's good to be a Democrat.

I got live TV back. After a two-year absence when I got sick of the political excesses in the 2020 election. The political excesses are still evident. So I won't leave news on as a kind of background radio. But what really shocks me is how many commercials there are. I'd forgotten. And gotten used to skipping adds on YouTube. When the Super Bowl is over, I'll likely quit it again.

Why won't you backward, stupid, white supremacist, deplorable young people enlist in the U. S. military?! The mystery continues.

American F-22s arrived in Australia for exercises with Australian F-35s

America's ability to see into Afghanistan activities is perhaps 2-3% of its pre-defeat level. Indeed.

The Army is speeding up modernization by sending older M-113s in our units to Ukraine.

Just to note that I speculated that Russia's first invasion of Ukraine could have put Russia on the road to significant shrinkage. The second invasion is putting much more strain on Russian unity.

China's slowing economy and aging population could make China dangerous? Pardon me, but China is dangerous because of the Chinese Communist Party. A slowing economy and aging population will lessen the source of danger in the long run. 

Kill whitey. With footnotes. Tip to Instapundit. Is the answer to racism really different racism? Why are so many listening to evil and stupid people?

The Syria multi-war lingers. Jihadis still roam and many remain in SDF prison camps. Iran gets Russian help as the price for supplying Putin's war effort in Ukraine. I won't say we don't have reasons to keep forces in eastern Syria. But it would be nice if our government explained why we risk out troops' lives there.

More on the Vampire 70mm guided rocket system, which can be mounted on even civilian vehicles. It is suitable for anti-UAV and ground attack roles. America sent them to Ukraine.

Huh: "A former member of Afghanistan’s parliament urged the world on Monday to label the Taliban a 'gender apartheid' regime[.]" I will never run out of reasons to re-use this, will I?

 

Newly wary of Russia, Germany wants to buy Israeli Arrow 3 missile defense systems.

Iran has decided to counter Israel's aerial interdiction campaign across Syria by just building missiles and other weapons (drones?) inside Syria.

No! Way! And I'll note that they use food as a raw material when we have growing shortages. Tip to PJ Media.

The Army is trying to figure out how to build up to about 100 more HIMARS vehicles per year.

I'm not sure changing the organizations that can be bribed and terrorized to leave the drug cartels alone is the answer to Mexico's crime problems.

Oops. Darn shame.

Azerbaijan has taken advantage of Russia's floundering offensive against Ukraine to hammer Russia's client Armenia, in theory under Russia's protection. More here. Who else exploits Russia's difficulties? Turkey? China?

Inflation is not under control

Actions speak louder than words. Via Instapundit.

Russia basically just has a manpower advantage over Ukraine and may be trying to use that. But I think that Russia's manpower (and military industrial) advantage over Ukraine is misleading. Putin is in a hole and may be just digging a deeper mass grave for his soldiers.

I heard a retired American Army lieutenant general (A show host humorously called him a "first lieutenant general") say that the Kherson offensive was absolutely a diversion for the main effort on the Kharkov front. If true, they fooled me. I wondered if the highly telegraphed Kherson offensive was to disguise a real effort elsewhere. But the south is so important I assumed it had to be the main effort.

What is the administration's major malfunction when it comes to energy production? Tip to Instapundit.

Somalia.

The ultimate tactical drone to see the enemy first.

Remember all the talk about how the American Army was "breaking" in Iraq? It didn't. But if you want to know what an army breaking looks like, take a look at Russia's ground forces 6 months into invading Ukraine. Maybe the troops recover enough to hold the line. Maybe they break and run back to Russia in large numbers.

FBI-Hillary collusion in the Russia-Trump witch hunt. Tip to Instapundit.

Will China roll the dice in a war, thinking it has a window of opportunity before its relative power compared to America and our allies begins to decline? 

The U.S. Air Force can turn its scarce cargo planes into precision-weapon trucks. I've mentioned them. Russia says it is easy: "Put explosives in barrel, roll off back ramp on city! Can't miss!" Back to the instant gunships. It's so cute how the Army convinces itself the Air Force will airlift its stuff when the Air Force has lots of other uses for its cargo planes.

Russia's sphere of influence is getting interesting: "Kyrgyz and Tajik border guards have exchanged fire after a dispute over the border between the two Central Asian nations, officials on both sides said."

Tactical nukes options. Last week I noted that America replaced most tactical nuke jobs with precision conventional weapons. And if Russia uses tactical nukes for the shock value, might we find Ukraine didn't give up all their Soviet-era nukes?

As Ukrainian forces reach the Russian border, it may be tempted to attack into Russia with ground forces for tactical and psychological gains. But Ukraine shouldn't make it easy for Russia to declare general mobilization to defend Russia from invasion.

As we discuss Russian options for using nuclear weapons, I'll repeat my observation: How do we know Russia's nukes are in any better shape than their conventional military? Does Russia really want to risk exposing his nuclear arsenal as less than robust? What if Putin used a nuke and it was a dud?

Six, huh? "For the Army to fight the way its top civilian leader envisions by the next decade, the organization must fulfill at least six objectives in that ever-shrinking window." I can think of just two: stop wasting lower ranks' time with BS courses; and get the flag officers to learn there are no substitutes for victory. Or get rid of them

So we have the cadre of commissars for the military in place, now (via Instapundit). I remember when everyone in the Army was green. But perhaps this is an opportunity for "anti-racists" to enlist!  With any luck our enemies are even worse. But no, the Army thinks the problem is the media portrayal of military service.

I have no opinion on the H96. But the Navy certainly needs a large number of ship-killing expendable warships, networked to exploit sensors and targeting provided by other more capable assets. 

The Navy wants to design its replacement for the successful Burke-class destroyer. It had best work. We've run out of time having the luxury of effing up the building of new warships.

The Navy and Marines disagree over the Light Amphibious Warfare ship concept. I think the LAW is a barge with pretensions.

Nuclear attack submarines give Australia the ability to fight China away from Australia's shores. The Lombok Strait is one key area.

It is unclear to me if the Russians rallied at the Oskol River after their front line collapsed when the Ukrainians attacked in Kharkov province; or if the Ukrainians set the river as their limit of advance as a defensible line to the east.

Yes, as I've mentioned, unmanned vessels are more vulnerable to being captured. They need the ability to shoot back, blow up, or be under close overwatch by assets that can blow up the attackers.

Iran gets the big promotion from old Axis of Evil: "Iran has moved a step closer towards becoming a permanent member of a central Asian security body dominated by Russia and China[.]"

The Biden administration may have averted a railroad strike. Good. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia did not launch Patriot missiles at Ukraine. I'm sure the reporter was told that a Russian missile similar to the Patriot was used as a ground attack missile. In this case the S-300. But our reporters as a class, with few exceptions, have no clue about military matters. No fashion, celebrity, or food reporter would be allowed to write about their subject with a similar lack of knowledge.

The Russians rely on heavy armor for offensive action. We really need more anti-tank weapons in our brigade combat teams. We would likely fight outnumbered early in a war. We have more options with drones that can be part of the option to reach whatever number we need to cripple Russian units that might strike NATO on the Baltic front.

The demand for racism far exceeds the supply. Tip to Instapundit.

Has Russia permanently destroyed its reputation as a global and even regional power? (Tip to Instapundit) No. Lot of nukes--even if we can't be sure they work--and a permanent seat on the UN Security Council will keep their limited global status. And eventually Russia will regain regional military power status. But will Russia concentrate their limited conventional military power in the east to protect the Far East or pretend NATO is a threat? And unless countries that rely on Russia can find an alternative protector, they'll remain with Russia to some degree. But some will have the opportunity to switch which they may never have thought could happen until now. Belarus?

Corruption and the anchor of socialism harm India's ability to arm itself.

I heard--possibly on a Telegraph podcast--that Ukraine pulled the four spearhead brigades from the Kharkov offensive and are moving them elsewhere. Will they go to Kherson? Will they aim for Melitipol? Or are they a reserve in case the Russians mount a desperate offensive somewhere?

Al Bundy? Tip to Instapundit.

Is Iraq on the verge of a Shia civil war? Differences are fine. Even stalemate is acceptable. As long as they are settled by ballots and not bullets. But with one side in that "civil war" pro-Iran, America has an interest in this fight.

Advocating a European Union plan to support Ukraine through a long war until Russia is willing to admit defeat and negotiate. An alternative to Russian energy that doesn't involve burning Unicorn horns would be helpful. Although the advocates insist on yoking Ukraine to the EU green energy plan. So I find it hard to take this seriously.

Eritrea, Ethiopia's longtime enemy, is mobilizing as Ethiopia's conflict with its Tigray region continues.

Poland will buy 48 South Korean combat jets.

If the FBI and DOJ are still looking for organized street mobs undermining our Constitutional rights. Tip to Instapundit.

What can Russia possibly do in Ukraine?

LOL:


Ukraine is repairing captured Russian equipment from the Kharkov counteroffensive. This is a major advantage of controlling a battlefield when the battle is over. Ukraine exploited this on the Kiev front early in the war. And Russia could do this in areas it took. 

The Russians invade Ukraine yet tell Germany that providing weapons to Ukraine to defend itself crosses a red line. Russia's leaders are a-holes.

The liberation of territory in Ukraine's east has revealed more Russian war crimesMore.

Artillery is back in fashion because of the war in Ukraine. Was I on that, or what? And a related aspect.

More American military aid to Ukraine to sustain their counteroffensive, but no details.

The Army wants to triple 155mm ammunition production; and increase rocket production. That's a good start.

I was unaware of this limit: "Poland’s top leaders celebrated the opening Saturday of a new — albeit unfinished — canal that they say will mean ships no longer must secure Russia’s permission to sail from the Baltic Sea to the ports of the Vistula Lagoon." Another reason Kaliningrad should be captured early if Russia goes to war with NATO.

Via Instapundit, without enough police in Minneapolis, private security is booming:


Yawn: "Russian nuclear-powered submarines fired cruise missiles in the Arctic [near Alaska] on Friday as part of military drills designed to test Moscow's readiness for a possible conflict in its icy northern waters, the defence ministry said." Prioritizing Russian naval power in Asia only makes sense if focused on China. Just in case.

What fresh Hell is this? Via Instapundit.

Putin's domestic political problems don't kill themselves, you know.

The People's Republic of China tells former Soviet states that they shouldn't let people determine the form of their republic.

I haven't read any reports of Russians captured in Ukraine's Kharkov offensive. So the Russians did manage to pull back and escape the attacks.