We are getting a lesson in logistics in the Winter War of 2022. From the Russians we see how to screw it up on the battlefield. From the West we see on how difficult it is to replace high-tech arsenals lost or used in combat. It is an expensive lesson. Will we spend the money to fix the problem or pay the price in war?
It has been a long time since the United States fought a high-intensity war of attrition, and the Pentagon, despite its renewed focus on large-scale combat operations, is not ready for it. ...
However, both history and the ongoing war in Ukraine suggest that such a possibility is more likely than we think. In a magisterial analysis of warfare from the Romans to World War II, Cathal Nolan argues that wars between peers or near-peers almost always become bloody contests of attrition, and these have gotten worse over time.
It is easy to think the worst case when we see reports of enemy weapons development. We think high-tech means short war. But the high-tech will run out before the fighting does:
Is the future of war hypersonic weapons, space warfare, and cyberattacks? Maybe for the first week until the fancy missiles run out and the enemy is thrown back to 20th- or 19th-century capabilities.
That will happen to our enemies who attack us. And it will happen to us. War expends ammunition at rates we never anticipate. Russia is running out of their best ammunition fighting Ukraine. But the war is not ending. And America had ammo problems in the war on terror--and will have problems in a large-scale conventional war.
I wrote about our production weakness in 2017, but saw a silver lining:
I'll note that in World War I, everyone thought the war would be over in months. But the war dragged on. Until factories and training camps could be geared up, old weapons and ammunition were used; weapons were fired less; and less-trained troops were sent into combat.
We have an additional problem of not having the ability to build new high tech weapons to replace losses.
So we'd have to build simpler weapons to supplement the really good stuff in a high-low mix.
Because face it, if a war isn't won, it won't end just because men and weapons are running out.
On the bright side, I'd bet our potential foes are in even worse shape than we are. So if we can solve this problem we'll eventually prevail as they start hauling out old weapons and ammunition, shooting less, and sending less-trained troops to fight us.
The silver lining is that enemies probably won't cripple us before they slow down. But on the other hand, if we don't have ammunition, spare parts, and replacement weapons, we won't be able to win the war, either.
Sadly, big wars are rarely over by Christmas.
NOTE: War coverage continues at this post.
