Russia continues to grind forward. By the territory-captured metric, Russia is slowly winning this war. But on a gradually shrinking front. Is Russia killing enough Ukrainian troops to hold its gains? Or will Putin push his army beyond its culminating point and break his army, contributing to the metric of defeat?
Russia started out invading Ukraine on a broad front from Kiev to Kherson. Russia withdrew from Kiev and then Kharkiv, and focused on the Donbas region. Now it is seemingly reduced to capturing Severodonetsk in the Donbas. But Russia did capture a steel plant in Mariupol after nearly 3 months. So they've got that going for them. Which is ... something.
Pretty soon a puppet show will get higher billing than the Russian military.
Further, there are reports that the Russians who once could not fight with coordinated battalion tactical groups are sending single companies to attack objectives. Despite that, the Ukrainians are being pushed back in the Donbas by heavy Russian firepower.
Which is interesting. Ukraine is mobilizing men, receiving Western equipment and refurbished Russian equipment, and restoring units from the Kiev front. If the Ukrainians wanted to put up a stiffer defense in eastern Donbas, I'd think they could. At risk of encirclement, of course.
Are the Ukrainians feeding minimal units into the east only to keep the Russians from breaking through or making significant advances while bleeding the Russians? Surely, if this continues the Russians will eventually be unable to launch even company-sized ground attacks.
At that point does Ukraine launch a counter-offensive with units being hoarded for a strategic reserve? If the Ukrainians can hit Russian units bled and unable to continue attacking (they've "culminated") the Russians on that section of the front might break, surrendering or running. Then Ukrainian troops could be in exploitation mode gutting Russian support units in the now-exposed rear area.
Or maybe the Ukrainians are pushing every unit they can get into the line as they get them, and are only with difficulty holding the Russians off.
Russia may still get their act together and use firepower and superior numbers to grind down Ukraine's ground forces. But Ukraine might be the side to get in the killing blow first.
UPDATE: Interesting: "Russian leader Vladimir Putin is still micromanaging operations and that means no use of initiative by Russian troops. This makes no sense unless you consider the possibility he does not trust the military and insists on direct control. For the Ukrainians, that is a major asset and more Russians are complaining about it."
UPDATE: While I assume Belarus is just bluffing with military activity on Ukraine's border, I also think Putin would consider the sacrifice of thousands of Belarusian soldiers to be a price worth paying if it saves just 100 Russian soldiers.
UPDATE: Russia is piling on the firepower in the Donbas: "Moscow has intensified its offensive in the eastern Luhansk region, the Ukrainian military said on May 23, with Severodonetsk under "round-the-clock" indiscriminate bombardment as Russian troops attempt to encircle the city[.]" Ukraine's President Zelensky seemed to say Ukraine is suffering 50-100 KIA per day in the Donbas fighting. Which sounds about right.
UPDATE: Unless Ukraine plans to hammer encircling Russian forces with a major counter-attack, it seems like Ukraine should retreat to new defensive lines to the west:
It's likely Ukrainian forces dug in around the city of Severodonetsk will be surrounded by Russian troops, one Western official predicts.
Ukraine has bled Russia's offensive trying to take the city. Don't blow that by throwing away Ukrainian troops needlessly.
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. Russian dissent over the war is most vocal in demanding Russia mobilize resources to win the war. Although attacks on Russian recruiting offices indicates opposition to the war certainly exists. Will rising Russian casualties become a factor domestically?
The news from Donbas is largely as reported earlier today. Russia has diverted Russian Donbas proxy forces to the Kharkiv region to hold off Ukrainian counter-attacks.
Russia is preparing defenses in the Kherson region and deployed two S-400 battalions to northwest Crimea to aid in air defense of the front.
UPDATE (Tuesday): The public opinion polls reveal the power of the Russian state:
The government has suppressed large public demonstrations in opposition to the war by simply arresting thousands of demonstrators at a time and firing those who work for the government or a state-owned company. That reminded Russians that the solution to that was to employ the Soviet-era expedient to be pro-war or neutral publicly while remaining anti-war otherwise, especially on Telegram. The government has a good idea of the number of people supporting or opposing things via Telegram and the anti-war sentiment keeps growing. Much of this criticism is directed at the poor government leadership during this war. That is getting a lot of Russians killed and humiliating the Russian military and Russia in general. These Russians often see this as the entire world turning against Russia and doing enormous economic damage to Russia. This degree of public opposition or criticism is unusual and causing a lot of political problems for Putin and his associates. Despite that, the war goes on and so do the battlefield defeats and the clandestine criticism from Russians.
We shall see if it is a factor in how this war unfolds.
UPDATE: Ukrainian partisan resistance continues in the Melitopol region of southern Russian-occupied Ukraine. I assume Ukrainian special forces are involved, too.
UPDATE: The latest ISW update. Russia has drawn forces from other fronts to concentrate troops and artillery in eastern Donbas. Russia has bulldozed forward more over the last week than the prior weeks, but has not broken through Ukrainian lines to encircle Ukrainian forces.
Given Russian focus on the Donbas I have to believe the Ukrainians have some opportunities on the rest of the front for a counter-offensive. But I really don't know if Ukraine has reserves. I did hear that Ukrainian forces defending the Kiev area are territorial reservists, so the regulars previously fighting there had to go somewhere. Did they go to refit and are now in reserve?
UPDATE (Wednesday): The Russians continue to grind forward around Severodonetsk:
The Ukrainian army is under its greatest strain since those first chaotic weeks of the war when people thought the Russians were going to drive into Kyiv. ...
The Russians are bringing a great deal of force to bear, and it’s working.
It's a Battle of Verdun on a smaller scale. But whose army is being bled more?
UPDATE: Ukraine is raising the stature of this battle:
"All the power of the Russian Army, which still remains in them, has been thrown into the attack,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly address on May 24.
Russian forces were advancing from three directions to encircle the easternmost sector of the Ukrainian-held Donbas pocket, with focus on the the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, located on the eastern and western banks of the Siverskiy Donets River.
But if Russia is drawing forces from the rest of the front to win here, that may open opportunities on other thinly held fronts for a major Ukrainian counter-offensive. Could Ukraine have a reserve capable of attacking east from Kharkiv (which isn't quite as important because Russia has seemingly abandoned the Izyum thrust), Izyum, south from Zaporizhya, or southeast from Mykolayiv?
Zelensky could be raising the stature of the battle to pull Russian forces into the fight and leave another front vulnerable to a counter-stroke.
Or maybe Ukraine is really struggling to hold the line with everything it can scrape up notwithstanding the heavy depletion of the invading Russian army.
I suppose we'll have to wait and see. NATO won't say and Russia might not even know.
UPDATE: Assistance: "Some 20 countries in the U.S.-led Ukraine Contact Group agreed to contribute new military aid packages to help Ukrainian troops fight off the Russian forces that have been attacking their country for the last three months, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced Monday."
UPDATE: Unless Ukraine plans a major counter-attack to destroy any Russian pincers that close around a Severodonetsk pocket, Ukraine needs to get their troops out soon: "A senior figure in eastern Ukraine has denied reports that a vital road linking Ukrainian-controlled areas in the east has been blocked from the rest of the country by Russian forces." The Ukrainian troops are more important than the territory.
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. Russia must use more dumb bombs; despite recent advances Russian milbloggers are unhappy with the planning and course of the war; Russia is seeking new recruits by increasing the age for recruits and by making men in occupied territories citizens. The rest of the front was fairly static.
UPDATE (Thursday): The Russians are pounding the Donbas front, with Severodonetsk in their sights. This Ukrainian assessment is good: "[The governor of Luhansk province, Serhiy] Hayday said Ukrainian forces 'are slowly retreating to more fortified positions,' and indicated that further Ukrainian withdrawals would follow as 'we need to win the war, not the battle.'" Exactly. Preserving the army is the most important job, above holding Donbas cities a little longer at the price of letting Russia encircle and destroy Ukrainian army units.
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. Russia is slamming at Ukrainian lines on the Donbas front:
Russian forces have now taken control of over 95% of Luhansk Oblast and will likely continue efforts to complete the capture of Severodonetsk in the coming days. Russian forces have made several gains in the past week, but their offensive operations remain slow. Russian forces are heavily degraded and will struggle to replace further losses.
There are some Ukrainian forces encircled, which are digging in.
On the southern front, Russian attacks are not going anywhere. The Russians seem to have hauled out ancient T-62 tanks to equip units.
Please tell me that the Ukrainians are building a reserve to hammer the Russians when Russian losses make attacking too difficult.
UPDATE (Friday): Ukrainian morale isn't bullet-proof. The Ukrainians on the Donbas front have been fighting for three months and are under heavy attack, after all. If the "no support" charge is true, is it because Ukrainian commanders are creating a reserve for a counter-offensive or because there is nothing to send? And if the latter, is that from lack of support to send or is corruption having an effect?
UPDATE: The Battle for Severodonetsk has begun. Ukrainian officials say they aren't outnumbered but that the Russians have a big firepower advantage. Are the Ukrainians going to let the city's defenders be surrounded?
UPDATE: More:
The city of Syevyerodonetsk -- which sits on the easternmost part of Ukrainian-held territory in the Donbas -- and its twin Lysychansk, which lies across the Siverskyi Donets River, are at the heart of a pivotal assault that has Russian forces advancing from three directions as they try to encircle Ukrainian troops on the eastern front.
Unless something changes, Russia will take those cities and largely control Luhansk province. Putin could declare victory and go over to the defensive. Or he might be encouraged to regroup and attack elsewhere.
I'll ask again, where are the heavy weapons Ukraine is getting from the West? Are they creating a reserve force for a counter-offensive?
And where is Ukrainians artillery, which would be helpful on the front even if Western stuff is being hoarded for a counter-offensive? Ukraine had lots before the war. Is most inoperative? Is there no ammunition?
UPDATE: That would be prudent:
Russian forces will not capture Luhansk in the coming days but Ukraine may have to evacuate some of its forces there for their own protection, the region's governor has said on Telegram . "It is possible that in order not to be surrounded we will have to retreat," Serhiy Haidai wrote.
Save the troops to fight and win another day.
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. The Kherson and Kharkiv fronts were static while Russian forces began hitting Severodonetsk ahead of success in encircling the Luhansk province city. Ukrainian partisans continue to be active in the south.
UPDATE (Saturday): Would Putin take the opportunity of taking all of Luhansk province to declare victory and hope Ukraine agrees to end the war? It's possible. But sometimes unexpectedly high casualties require more than a small gain to justify the losses. Until the losses get even higher and people will accept any defeat to stop the losses. Does that escalation logic apply to Putin's Russia?
UPDATE: Interesting: "Ukraine has started receiving Harpoon anti-ship missiles from Denmark and self-propelled howitzers from the US, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said." American SP artillery would have to be from the M-109 series, right?
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. Russia has brought in forces from other sections of the front to hammer away at Ukrainian lines to take Severodonetsk. The Russians are paying a higher price than the Ukrainians. And for what?
Ukraine has twice forced Putin to define down his military objectives. Ukraine defeated Russia in the Battle of Kyiv, forcing Putin to reduce his subsequent military objectives to seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine stopped him from achieving that aim as well, forcing him to focus on completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast alone. Putin is now hurling men and munitions at the last remaining major population center in that oblast, Severodonetsk, as if taking it would win the war for the Kremlin. He is wrong. When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back.
I'm not the only when expected a counter-offensive. Which may mean Ukraine has a reserve force even as its frontline forces have been bled and shoved back. Still, ISW expresses uncertainty about whether Ukraine has the capability to take their chance.
On the other hand, Ukraine has apparently started a counter-offensive northeast of the city of Kherson, which is where I've expected the blow to land. Ukrainian forces may have made a river crossing in their attacks.
Ukrainian partisans continue to be a threat to the Russians in the south.
UPDATE (Sunday): I'm not sure why there is controversy over sending rocket launcher artillery to Ukraine: "The U.S. will transfer long-range rocket systems to Ukraine to aid the country’s fight against Russia in the Donbas region, officials told multiple outlets." Russia uses rockets. A lot. Ukraine has them. And I sincerely doubt that we will send the larger version of the rocket able to reach hundreds of kilometers. This is just another type of artillery, people. And given Ukraine's lack of aircraft, one with the range to hit Russian army rear areas and lines of supply. or to fire at the front from further back.
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. Russians continue to press toward Severodonetsk in the Dombas, without more success; and Ukraine did indeed attack northeast of Kherson yesterday, although Russian forces launched some attacks, too.
Ukraine's actions on the Kherson front do not seem to have expanded to counter-offensive scale. But that may come if smaller attacks find or create weaknesses in the Russian lines.
NOTE: War coverage continues at this post.
