Putin has not been able to order his military to stop screwing pooches in Ukraine. Poorly trained Russian troops were told they were rescuing Nazi-ruled Ukrainians--if they were even told they were entering Ukraine--and now don't want to fight Ukrainians fiercely resist the "rescue". Russia's military leaders don't know how to wage war with the troops they have rather than the troops they told the world--and Putin--they had.
While I've not been shy over the years downgrading Russia's military prowess, I expected Russia to recover from their initial war failures to at least have a shot at deploying massive and effective firepower on the Donbas front to overcome their exposed weaknesses. My eventual choice for the war's name was explicitly based on the USSR's invasion of Finland in 1939-1940.
I was very worried Russia might regroup, deploy massive firepower, and encircle Ukraine's army on the Donbas eastern front. But Russia continues to grind forward in frontal assaults at high cost to its own troops. At best from Putin's point of view, Russia has not yet gotten better at using what it has. Can it?
As Strategypage has noted about the Russian military:
Morale and discipline in the military had plummeted since the invasion began. Since the start of the fighting at least one general a week has been killed in action, along with many brigade and battalion commanders or staff officers of the same rank. In eastern Ukraine another offensive failed to advance because of Ukrainian resistance, heavy Russian casualties and timid behavior by troops and junior officers.
And as George Friedman wrote recently:
It seems that the Russians are incapable of changing strategy. They have known for almost three months they were on the wrong track. Insufficient resources and a poorly trained officer corps is the only explanation for this baffling reality. The Ukrainians won’t change their strategy, because for now they don’t need to. And the Americans couldn’t be happier. The Russians are squandering their power and credibility against Ukraine, and the U.S. can both intervene with weapons and avoid the war in practice.
This doesn't mean that Russia can't change strategy and that it can't restore troop morale enough to win. But the longer Russia doesn't, the more equipment it loses and the more troops die--and the deeper the hole Russia is digging into gets. How much more can Russia's army take? Eventually a fighting trench will become a mass grave for the Russian army.
As Friedman concludes:
So as I see it, the only advice there is for Russia is German Field Marshal Gerd von Rundstedt’s answer to Berlin after D-Day, when he was asked what should be done: “Make peace, you fools.”
Is Putin patriotic enough or strong enough to make peace despite the perils to himself personally? Is he weak enough to be compelled to do so by others who want to make peace?
Or will Russia's army continue on the Viking funeral ride at Putin's side until the bitter end, whether or not that end includes Putin hanging from his heels from a lamp post in Red Square?
UPDATE: Older infantry carriers being used in the war. Interestingly enough, Ukraine uses their infantry carriers as infantry taxis and for supply carriers to protect against Russian artillery and machine gun fire.
UPDATE: Russian failures in electronic warfare in the war. Although I generally dismissed Russian claims of military prowess, I did expect Russian electronic warfare to be good. Based on Cold War stories and accounts of fighting in the Donbas in 2014 and 2015. Either past stories were wrong or things changed a lot. And I guess I didn't think Turkish successes against Russian technology in the Libya civil war or Armenia reflected success against top-of-the-line Russian equipment.
Also, the last couple paragraphs reflect this post's point. Do read it all.
UPDATE: It appears that the Ukrainian Azovstal defenders surrendered and are being evacuated to safety. To Ukrainian territory, I hope.
UPDATE: Apparently, wounded Ukrainians in Mariupol are being exchanged for Russian POWs. What about the unwounded defenders?
UPDATE: The latest ISW update:
Russia continues ineffective attacks on the Donbas front.
Russian troops are trying to hold the line inside Ukraine near Kharkiv, possibly to prevent Ukraine from bombarding Belgorod, which is an important Russian staging area. And to hold the supply lines to Izyum.
Ukraine is counterattacking around Izyum.
Wounded Ukrainian Mariupol defenders were evacuated to Russian-controlled territory. More may follow.
There is discontent in Russia and possibly in Russia's Donetsk puppet states about heavy casualties in ineffective operations.
In the south, Ukraine reports bombarding Russian ammo depots while Russia launched a missile strike at Odessa trying to destroy a key damaged bridge.
UPDATE (Tuesday): France promised Ukraine more weapons.
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. The Russian offensive seems stalled despite a narrow focus on capturing Severodonetsk in the eastern part of Ukrainian-held Donbas. Ukrainian troops continue to push Russians away from Kharkiv. It appears that Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol have surrendered after the Ukrainian government ordered them to do so--prior to prisoner exchanges. But will the Russians release the POWs?
UPDATE (Wednesday): The purges of Russian officers will continue until performance improves.
UPDATE: The Ukrainians can only pray this is true: "Western military sources this week told The Guardian and The Sunday Times that the Russian president is making operational and tactical decisions."
UPDATE: I assumed this was happening: "As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth month and drags on, Ukrainian forces are getting new equipment in the form of Russian tanks. Mechanics in the city of Kharkiv have been repairing battle-damaged T-72 and T-80 tanks for redeployment." In the past, controlling the battlefield after it was over was key to recovering disabled tanks to repair and for salvage.
UPDATE: Was that Russian colonel part of a government plan to break the news of war failure to the Russian people? Is the special military operation on the roof?
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. Largely stalemate. And Russians bombarding the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, so apparently Ukrainian defenders are still holding out.
UPDATE (Thursday): That's a potential point of division within NATO given a ceasefire will let Russia stall and keep their gains: "Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi has called for an urgent ceasefire in Ukraine so serious negotiations can begin to end the war, Reuters reports."
UPDATE: Russia has failed on many levels in its war on Ukraine. But the core is that its troops are mere cannon fodder: "These problems do not stop at
technical equipment issues, poor training, or corruption. Rather, they
are linked by a core underlying theme: the military’s lack of concern
for the lives and well-being of its personnel." There is a bright side when the word gets out:
UPDATE: Yes, Russia can't afford many more victories such as the capture of Mariupol.
UPDATE: Ukrainian partisans attacked a Russian armored train in the south, apparently wrecking rails ahead of the train. Results are unknown.
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment: "Russian forces are continuing to suffer shortages of reserve manpower, causing the Russian military command to consolidate depleted battalion tactical groups (BTGs)."
It is largely a stalemate and Russian forces are starting to mount attacks on the company level rather than even full BTGs on the Donbas front. Wow.
The Russians are reinforcing the defense of Snake Island in the Black Sea.
Will Ukraine gather the forces for a major counter-offensive or will Russia rebuild the capacity to go on the offensive first?
UPDATE (Friday): Is this evidence that Russian firepower is finally getting results? "Russian forces in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region have pushed forward and taken some ground, according to information in the latest Ukrainian military briefing." Related: "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says Russian forces have 'completely destroyed' Ukraine's Donbas region as they have intensified their offensive in eastern Ukraine."
UPDATE: The NATO aerial surveillance armada supporting Ukraine. And I did not know this: "Russia has had about ten amphibious and assault ships destroyed or damaged trying to resupply Snake Island, as well as evacuating wounded and bringing in troop replacements. Hundreds of Russian troops have been killed or wounded on Snake Island. Russia could just abandon Snake Island but that is seen as another defeat at a time where there were too many of those on land."
UPDATE: I still wonder if Putin will be forced to call what he has taken in the south and east plus wrecking Ukraine's economy for a generation his victory. Whether Putin can hold what he took is another question. As is the question of whether Russia's economy will be harmed more in the long run than Ukraine's. If Russia hopes to pivot east where the real threat is, it is running out of time. And troops to pivot.
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment:
Russian forces are focusing on digging in and reinforcing defensive positions in Kharkiv and along the Southern Axis in preparation for Ukrainian counteroffensives, while the majority of active offensive operations remain confined to Izyum-Donetsk City arc and especially the Popasna-Severodonetsk area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are creating secondary defensive lines on the Southern Axis, indicating that the Russian grouping in this area may be preparing for a major Ukrainian counter-offensive and a protracted conflict.[i] Russian forces reportedly are holding defensive positions north of Kharkiv City following the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive since May 5 and have conducted limited spoiling attacks either to give Russian forces time to complete their redeployment back to Russia in good order or to allow reinforcements to arrive to defend territory in Kharkiv Oblast.
The Russians may be exaggerating the number of Ukrainian defenders at the Azovostal plant in Mariupol.
UPDATE (Saturday): It sounds like Zelensky would halt a counter-offensive when Ukrainian forces have rolled back this year's Russian conquests. Then diplomacy would be relied on for the rest (or none).
If Ukraine's army can launch a counter-offensive and inflict a truly stunning defeat on Russian forces holding Ukrainian territory, those outcomes become possible.
UPDATE: Russia is pounding its way forward in the Donbas:
BBC correspondent James Waterhouse says Russia has increased its artillery and air strikes as well as missile attacks - gaining ground mile by mile in Luhansk while the Ukrainians are forced to retreat.
He says the Russians are "enjoying much more freedom of movement" as troops get redeployed following a successful siege of Mariupol.
Does that last part mean Russia is shifting troops from the southern Kherson front?
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. On a largely stalemated front, Russian sights are set on one city:
Russian forces made gains in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area and intensified efforts to capture Severodonetsk on May 21. Russian troops blew up a bridge across the Severskyi Donetsk River between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, setting conditions to sever Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and take Severodonetsk.
And are Russian forces preparing to resume the offensive in the south to capture the Kherson region in its entirety? How will this interact with a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive?
UPDATE (Sunday): The war of attrition continues. Will the West support Ukraine for the long haul? Yes, Russia may be able to use their firepower advantage to pummel Ukraine into submission. But Russia's army has to maintain some minimal willingness to advance and fight to exploit that firepower. Can Russian morale hold long enough to do that? The war could go either way. Only in retrospect will people be able to show how the victory of one side was inevitable.
UPDATE: The lastest ISW assessment. All static on the Russian front. Russia continues to pound away at Ukrainian lines in the Donbas, bending them back in places.
Otherwise the war is all about possibilities. Will Russia break through on the Donbas front? Will Russia launch an offensive on the southern front? Will Ukraine expand its attacks around Kharkiv? Will Ukraine launch a counter-offensive in the south?
Ukrainian partisans remain active in the south. Can this be intensified and expanded?
NOTE: War coverage continues as this post.
