Russia has nukes and a bad attitude. I guess I fear the death and destruction that Putin's stupidity might unleash. But I don't fear Russia. But maybe Putin should.
Really? Fearfully?
The world is looking fearfully at the Russian-Ukrainian border and for good reason. Russia has amassed some 120,000 troops on the border, and fighting along the line of contact between Moscow-backed separatists and Ukraine’s security forces has intensified in recent days. Signs at the top are no better. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a draft proposal on Dec. 17 detailing security guarantees between Russia and the United States that explicitly draws a red line on NATO’s expansion eastward to Ukraine and other former Soviet states, and Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an ominous warning on Dec. 21 of a “military-technical” response to what he deemed as “aggressive” measures by the West.
I feel sorry for Russians who must endure a vodka-addled paranoid leadership determined to create a military threat on Russia's western border where none existed. Even as time runs out in Russia's east.
I went into a lot of this issue in this post.*
The author of that initial article doesn't think Russia will invade Ukraine:
Thus, the application of this framework on military intervention suggests that a looming large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is unlikely. However, this does not preclude alternative, nonconventional military measures by Russia.
Although the template the author applies is wrong in its statement that Russia didn't send troops into core Georgia in 2008. Russia did drive on Tblisi, but pulled back to the separatist regions it already controlled as the invasion force ran into trouble.
Still, I agree the potential problems for Russia argue against a major invasion. But Putin will likely do something--whether military or not--to show results for all his efforts and threats.
And God help us, with the Fuck-Up Fairy living in Russia full time, now, you never can tell what monumentally stupid thing Putin might do.
Still, I honestly wonder if Putin will survive this crisis of war that Putin has created, as the Russian people watch on helplessly as the Viking funeral ride takes shape before their eyes. Putin may be forcing his people to confront the ugly reality of his drive for imperial status:
Russia is a third-rate gangster state whose idiotic policies have immiserated its people.
Putin sees himself as restoring Russian/Soviet territory and glory. But he doesn't have the power to cash the check he has written. The West should not make concessions to Putin that let him cover that check.
How much more will the Russian people endure before they conclude Putin himself is Russia's problem?
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
*That post dragged on, I admit. But there is a lot to go into. And I'm not going to go through multiple edits for a free blog post. Sorry. It is what it is, eh?
