If the West is cooperative enough, Putin can advance his objectives in Ukraine without risking the casualties that could undo his own rule.
Is Putin counting on Biden to blink?
Putin’s ultimate motives for his troop buildup are to prevent NATO expansion and force Ukraine, Georgia, and other countries surrounding Russia’s borders into neutrality. This is dangerous, Gregory points out, because these countries would lose any hope of being under NATO’s security umbrella or acquiring weapons from the West to deter future Russian aggression. Moreover, Russia will continue to engage in hybrid warfare against these countries to bring them directly into the Russian orbit.
Exactly. We may not want war, but Russia may not either, hoping to bully the West:
Yet giving in to Russia's demands won't end well. Imposing "neutrality" on Ukraine won't preserve the peace. Denying them the right to associate with countries that promote their security and prosperity simply tells Ukrainians that the Russians can capture Ukraine when they are ready. Past Russian promises failed. Notice the pattern.
A Ukraine denied hope of rescue from Russia's clutches may become demoralized and ripe for subversion. As I mentioned in a data dump, "if Ukraine isn't moving toward the West, Putin will drag it toward Russia."
Just the hope of NATO membership is probably good enough to keep Ukraine moving west:
"NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Friday ruled out any halt to the continued expansion of the military organization to address Russian security concerns[.]" NATO may never admit Ukraine. But Russia doesn't get a veto. And bringing Ukraine up to standards for NATO admission makes Ukraine a harder target whether or not it ultimately joins NATO.
Throwing Ukraine just a little under the bus risks Ukrainians beginning to think that resistance is futile. We saw in Afghanistan how allies denied hope of American help can quickly collapse in the face of determined aggressors.
And if we count on Ukrainians to wage an insurgency after losing lots of territory, abandoning Ukraine while it tries to hold its independence is sure to undermine Ukrainian morale and incentive to resist.
Don't let Russia win in Ukraine without a fight. Russia requires a bloodless win.
