The new German government is caught between the conflicting realities of its own military weakness and the reality of Russian aggression and hostility. Is this where Putin really shows off how badly he is effing things up?
The German government is hopeful but worried about Russia:
The government coalition's agreement was right to dedicate one of its longest sections to Russia. In addition to friendly words that attest to the depth and diversity of German-Russian relations, there is clear criticism of Russia's aggressive actions towards its neighbors.
There are direct references to "attempts to destabilize Ukraine, the violence in eastern Ukraine and the illegal annexation of Crimea" as well as the "comprehensive restriction of civil and democratic freedoms." In simple terms: Russia is waging a psychological, hybrid war that is not limited to Ukraine and neighboring countries — and is an increasing threat to the West.
And yes, despite their claims that they can't be trusted with sharp objects, Germany is part of the democratic West.
Yet Germany's reality of an aggressive Russia hurts their desire for friendly trade relations. Germany got complacent after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Their Cold War front line once cut through Germany itself. Now the Germans think they have a couple countries' worth of buffer zone to buy time. But the Russian subliminal Anschluss with Belarus reduces the buffer to Poland. And if Ukraine can't hold, the threat gets worse.
But Germany's reality of a weak military hurts their ability to stand up to Russia. The German army basically has two combat divisions, plus some airborne and special forces.
Good Lord, if the British army landed on the coast of Germany today, the Germans would be better off sending the police.
But Germany may put off the conflicting problems. Russia may count on pushing NATO out of the new member states in the east, based on an understanding with Germany:
In this scenario Putin would target Germany as his “partner of preference,” with the expectation that by applying its energy weapon Moscow could eventually coax Berlin into a “neo-Bismarckian” accommodation that would in effect divide Europe into two spheres of influence, rendering the United States increasingly irrelevant to the overall strategic balance in Europe.
Let's work to prevent that kind of ... er ... non-aggression pact.
But Germany does have the ability to build a formidable military if it chooses to do so. Russia knows this, having been invaded twice in the 20th century by Germany. As I've advised the Germans torn by their self-imposed choices:
I keep reading that the Germans hate their militaristic past so much that they don't want to fight.
Let's try applying the clue bat to Germany's collective skull on this issue.
Conquering and setting up death camps under the shield of a powerful military? That's bad. By all means, don't do that.
Having a military capable of fighting death cult enemies or stopping the Russians from moving west? Well, that's a good thing. Try doing that.
The Russians could be creating a self-fulfilling prophecy by loudly claiming to be under threat, loudly issuing nuclear threats, and loudly pushing to restore their Soviet borders.
I seriously wonder if Russians will get rid of Putin and end this cycle of stupidity.
UPDATE: Is the clue bat working?
The United States and Germany said Wednesday that Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine’s border poses an “immediate and urgent challenge” to European security and that any intervention will draw severe consequences.
It would be hilarious if the Russians were the ones who finally convinced Germany to spend 2% of GDP on defense.
