Putin and his Russia-as-victim shtick is getting tiresome. Could it actually destroy Putin before it destroys Russia?
Are Russia's demands "outlandish" and pointless?
Moscow asked Nato to cease all military activity in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia also demanded guarantees that no former Soviet republics be permitted to join the alliance.
Or is this an ultimatum designed to fail and justify some sort of Russian attack?
What is exactly is Putin's objective for threatening a war against Ukraine that he'd lose one way or another if it doesn't go according to his plan?
Sometimes I think Putin fears Russia being ignored more than anything:
I swear, Russia really just doesn't like to be ignored after being the "big bad" during the Cold War:
The Russians and their Soviet predecessors acted on the theory it is better to be feared than liked. Russia is finding that without conventional military power, the fear option is not readily available.
And the charm and grace of Putin isn't enough to make up for that lost power.
But Russia can still threaten nuclear annihilation. Will Putin just stop this nonsense?
After the Kremlin’s ultimatums to NATO appeared to fall flat earlier this week, Moscow ratcheted up the crazy on Tuesday with new claims of U.S. mercenaries supposedly preparing a 'chemical weapons' attack and a threat of unspecified "military-technical" [retaliatory] action.
Sounds like a nuclear threat.
Does Putin really think the Russian people are eager to risk nuclear war? FFS.
And the hits keep coming.
Despite Putin's propaganda, more Russians have a positive view of America than a negative view.
Yet don't think the threats have no effect on us. This article is part of a ridiculous "blame the victim" Russian apologist line of argument to "understand" and excuse Russian aggression. No Ukrainian problems or mistakes justify Russia invading and dismembering Ukraine, and insisting that Russia has the right to control Ukraine and deny it the freedom to choose its own destiny.
Remember it costs Russia money to keep an army poised to invade, the Russian people don't seem eager for war, and Putin would like the West to offer concessions before they notice Russia is weak. But Westerners willing to blame Ukraine for the crime of being invaded and not liking it might save Putin.
Putin says he doesn't want war over Ukraine and wants a quick response from the West to his demands. This is aimed at the people who "understand" Russian "fears." But on the other hand, Putin says legal guarantees from America can't be trusted. Project much?
And if Putin wants guarantees but can't trust guarantees, just what is he up to? Maybe he will invade and counts on rolling the dice and getting good rolls about a dozen times in a row.
I mean, it sure looks like Putin is figuratively burning his bridges behind him to show resolve:
"What the U.S. is doing in Ukraine is at our doorstep... And they should understand that we have nowhere further to retreat to. Do they think we’ll just watch idly?" Putin said.
But it could be a bluff. Although if Putin starts something don't doubt Russia will show "proof" of American mercenaries in Ukraine. Russia has the physical "evidence" already.
Or maybe he aims for smaller military objectives in more of a punitive mission. Just bomb the Ukrainians a bit and declare that "Russia taught them a lesson."
Or maybe Putin doesn't want to risk any military action out of fear that things will go horribly wrong. Maybe Putin is massing troops on Ukraine's border to shield a cyber-attack on Ukraine:
Now the United States and Britain have quietly dispatched cyberwarfare experts to Ukraine in hopes of better preparing the country to confront what they think may be the next move by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as he again menaces the former Soviet republic[.]
One thing I hadn't considered as a reason for Russia's preparations to invade Ukraine is that it has nothing to do with attacking Ukraine (I think I read this somewhere but can't remember where). Could this drama be for shielding the annexation of the Ukrainian Donbas territory that Russia's proxies hold? And while he's at it, would Putin annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Russia pried away from Georgia?
Wouldn't the West breathe a sigh of relief that Putin "only" wants to secure past conquests rather than make new conquests?
Putin's scary talk seems unhinged when you consider he blames NATO for a crisis he started. While this may scare the West, Putin might find he scares enough powerful Russians who don't want to go on his Viking funeral ride for the sake of scraps of Ukrainian territory. This isn't Soviet days. Everyone sees what Putin says to the West.
Invading other countries is a historically proven way to make lasting enemies.
And threatening to invade is a proven way to scare the Hell out of his own people:
One big difference between Putin's Russia and the Soviet Union no matter how tragic Putin believes the demise of the USSR was is that the Russian people are no longer up to suffering 30 million casualties to win a war.
I'm not panicked. Nor do I think we need to offer much more than cosmetic concessions:
Without firing a shot, Putin has managed to send the West into a collective panic -- or at least into a position where they feel the need to appease the aging autocrat.
Get a room.
Honestly, this level of crisis that Putin is stoking might just provoke enough powerful and ordinary Russians to wonder if Putin himself is the foreign plot to destroy Russia. Could Putin end up hanging from a lamp post by his heels before this is over?
Putin has cranked the threats up to 11. Which makes me think he is desperate to hide Russian weakness. So fingers crossed that Putin actually understands this:
An invasion of Ukraine would be filled with risks for Russia. Failure or prolonged resistance would turn Russia from a reemerging power into a nation to be discounted.
Will no advisor tell Putin he is effing up royally?
I still wonder if Putin will take down Russia with him by risking war with NATO.
Heck, maybe this is just one last gasp for a cheap diplomatic victory in the west--even if Putin has to pretend he bullied the West--before Russia must pivot east to face China, which is the true threat to Russia.
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
UPDATE: The Russian army has problems no matter what the Russians try to portray.
UPDATE: Related:
The Russian regime’s attempts to control Russians’ access to information exposes Putin’s greatest fear, the fear of all authoritarians, his own people. He is right to worry; his war talk is wearing thin at home.
Come on, Putin! Boast about how the Russian people will willingly sacrifice 30 million people to fight NATO.
