To deter or defeat China, Taiwan may have created the best defense pact ever with America and Japan without signing a defense pact.
Taiwan will build a semiconductor plant in Japan:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd has received approval to set up a chip plant in Japan, Taiwan's investment commission of the ministry of economic affairs, which approved the investment, said in a statement on Monday.
This follows a Taiwanese decision to build such a plant in America:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (2330.TW) (TSMC) has started construction at a site in Arizona where it plans to spend $12 billion to build a computer chip factory, its chief executive said on Tuesday.
Taiwan is a leader in semiconductor design and manufacturing. Given their importance to economic and military uses, did Taiwan extract pledges from America and Japan to defend Taiwan in exchange for getting these plants safely away from China?
That's what I wondered when I read the Japan story. And then four days later I read this:
The U.S. and Japanese militaries have made a draft plan for a joint operation should an emergency with Taiwan arise, Japan's Kyodo news agency reported Thursday.
Under the draft plan, the U.S. Marine Corps would deploy troops to and set up temporary bases on the Nansei island chain, an archipelago of Japan that stretches toward Taiwan, at the first sign of a Taiwan emergency, Kyodo said.
Japanese armed forces, meanwhile, would provide logistical support with ammunition and fuel supplies.
Although strictly speaking the joint operation just speaks of deploying troops--not using them against China.
The Marines would no doubt have anti-ship and anti-aircraft weapons. Which would protect the northern flank of Taiwan and potentially secure lines of supply from Japan to Taiwan.
And if China attacks the Japanese logistics ships, Japan will have a reason to invoke its defense pact with America and send in their combat self defense forces.
Japan and the United States could not stand by if China attacked Taiwan, and Beijing needs to understand this, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Wednesday.
Practically, deployment must occur before use. And use is envisioned. China might still delude themselves that America and Japan won't intervene. And worse, regardless of the true military balance, China could persuade themselves that they are stronger than they really are.
With Taiwanese chip plants in Japan and America, at least their military production wouldn't falter if China shuts down the plants by attacking, blockading, or invading.
But the Taiwanese control the plants.
Which means America and Japan would be more likely to intervene to defend or restore Taiwanese autonomy by ejecting the Chinese from Taiwan.
And China now knows that invading Taiwan to capture those advanced factories won't defang America and Japan.
I'm curious about who proposed this apparent deal.
UPDATE: After I wrote this post on Taiwan's chip leverage, I found this fascinating article:
On the front line of the superpower struggle between the United States and China, Taiwan has fashioned a defensive masterstroke. It has become indispensable to both sides.
The key from America's point of view is that China can't cut off America and Japan if China captures Taiwan. And I imagine that if Taiwan doesn't sabotage the plants thoroughly that America would bomb the plants on Taiwan to deny China the chips.
And this from the Taiwan government is kind of funny:
"Rather than saying that the chip industry is Taiwan’s 'Silicon Shield,' the statement said, "it is more appropriate to say that Taiwan has an important position in the global supply chain."
Very tactful. But as I said, I think this is about making sure America and Japan fight for Taiwan. It won't deter China from invading.
