Whether or not China or Russia are closing the gap with American power or reaching peak relative power, the reality of how the power on both sides is arranged means little change in actual power at the point of contact in the short run.
Is the real Thucydides Trap that China and Russia are in decline and might strike while they can?
The rising threat of high-intensity state-on-state war is driven by the growing elite conviction in Beijing and Moscow that their power disadvantage relative to the U.S. and its allies will worsen unless they move soon, making victory increasingly unattainable.
Hmm. I was highly skeptical that the trap was true when China was rising.
The Thucydides Trap refers to the Greek writer Thucydides who described the long struggle between Athens and Sparta, writing that Sparta and Athens had to clash as Athens reacted to the prospect of losing their dominance (and let's gloss over whether a pro-Athenian attitude was just an attempt to clear Athens of any wrongdoing). ...
Sheer distance is a lubricant that reduces friction and decisions made in fear of dramatic loss. The power shift between America and Britain with the Atlantic between us did not result in a hammer and tongs, all-out war between us to decide who runs things.
America and China have such distance between our countries. America and Russia, too, for that matter, notwithstanding the Alaska-Russia sea border.
Now that the China-America power shift that prompted the Thucydides Trap worries might never happen, there is no reason to actually worry more about war. Long before now and long into the future, China and Russia will have the advantage of deploying military power to strike close and much weaker neighboring targets while superior American power is far away.
So put away the Thucydides Trap for now. And focus on what China or Russia could do if they choose war for reasons other than the big picture correlation-of-forces trends.
