Russia and China are not allies. They just have more immediate targets. For now.
That's not a sound basis for alliance:
A big supporter of Russian aggression is China. In large part this is because China is also an empire trying to reclaim lost territories. That some of those territories are currently Russia’s Far East (areas bordering the Pacific) is not officially discussed in Russia or China but is no secret to many Russians and Chinese. That is a problem for another day as currently Russia and China support each other’s imperial ambitions in Ukraine and the South China Sea and help each other out to deal with any associated problems, especially the UN or economic sanctions.
That is, China likes Russian power focused on NATO, far from Asia. Which keeps some American power in Europe. And if war breaks out between NATO and Russia, America and Russia are weakened. Making it easier for China to get its objectives in the Pacific and in Russia's Far East.
And Russia likes Chinese power focused on the sea, away from Russia's Far East. Ideally America and China go to war and seriously weaken each other. That would secure the Far East and make it easier to regain the empire in eastern Europe.
Each country's focus allows them to warily turn their backs on each other. But no trust is involved.
Russia essentially aimed China at America. But Russia's usefulness to China as a fire sale for Soviet technology is running out.
And I think Russia is loudly aggressive toward NATO in part to hide Russia's appeasement of China to secure its Far East while Russia tries to move past post-Soviet Russian weakness.
But Russia has fewer than five more years of that ceasefire.
So who strikes first? And "striking" could mean Russia getting its head out of its national butt and defecting to the West's side.
What could Russia possibly gain from alienating NATO by invading Ukraine when China looms over Russia?
UPDATE: Highly related:
The traditional Chinese name for their country is Zhongguo, which is usually translated into English as “middle kingdom”. But a more literal and accurate translation is “everything under the heavens.” Until the 21st century this mainly meant adjacent land areas. But now China points out that “everything” means the South China Sea, portions of India and the Russian Pacific Coastal region. The Zhongguo tradition also means China does not have allies, just powerful trading partners (the West in general) and client states like North Korea, Pakistan and others who deny the status, like Russia. That has always been the Chinese outlook and it hasn’t changed.
How long will China let Russia remain in a state of denial?
