Are Russian Counter-Drone Operator Missions Effective?

Ukraine says that the Russians are more effective in hitting their small UAV operators behind the lines. Interesting.

Is this true?

Ukrainian military sources have reported on the increasing effectiveness of Russian glide bomb and artillery strikes against Ukrainian drone operators, as the Russian military command looks for ways to overcome Ukraine’s natural defensive advantage and its advantage in unmanned systems.

On the one hand, it has long made sense for combatants to use their persistent battlefield surveillance to find and strike the drone operators in their bunkers behind the lines. So this seems logical. Russia is going after Ukraine's drone operators and is having some success.

Yet it also makes sense for Ukraine to "admit" it is hurt if Russia's efforts aren't very successful. It makes sense for Ukraine to "publicize" Russia's so-called success to encourage Russia to keep doing what they are doing--which could be largely ineffective in reality.

From where I sit, the battlefield isn't transparent at all. And it isn't just from my perspective far from battlefields, eh? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: U.S. Army photo.

AI Is Not Replacement Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence is not Artificial Leadership.

I concur enthusiastically:

"You can't AI yourself to be the best maneuver brigade commander out there," LaNeve said. "You use AI as a tool to help you push the formation, use the tools to defeat the enemy, but you still have to be grounded in the core tasks that you’ve been assigned."

I recall that in the Cold War the Soviets wanted computers to actually make the decisions of officers leading combat units. I don't remember the level of command. I think it was more for company commanders. This would make up for lack of an effective NCO corps and for poor initiative in officers. It failed.

We really shouldn't try the same thing believing AI can replace well-trained officers and NCOs. AI is just a tool that can make good leadership more effective. Or make poor commanders FUBAR at the speed of AI.

But I won't be shocked if the Russians and Chinese try the same path.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Wonders About the Russian Army

 

Have Russia’s ground forces effectively collapsed? Do we fail to see it because Ukraine can’t scale up their offensive capabilities? Does the jump in troop dispersal on the battlefield make it harder to generate and expand panic in enemy troops?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Ford-Class Amphibious/Strike Carrier

In case you missed it on Substack: Russia's Bluff Gambit

In case you missed it on Substack: The Mother of All Cutters

In case you missed it on Substack: Enabling Maneuver With UAVs

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Is There a Debate Over the Main Enemy in the PLA?

I will ask again, does the People's Liberation Army (PLA) believe it is the defender of China or the defender of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)?

What is PLA leadership disloyal to? China or Xi? 

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s purge of the senior leadership of the People’s Liberation Army continues unabated. It reveals both the reach of the Chinese Communist Party’s disciplinary apparatus, and the persistence of disloyalty and corruption in the PLA. ... 

Its central purpose is to ensure that professionalisation does not generate military autonomy and that organisational authority remains subordinate to party authority.

But recall that the primary objective of the CCP is to maintain the CCP’s monopoly on power in China. So the decline of communist purity in favor of nationalism to bolster the CCP legitimacy is a dangerous path for the CCP.  

Xi may want a PLA both technically proficient and utterly loyal. But autocrats have often discovered they must choose one. Who is Xi more worried about? 

Yet, if an effective military is chosen, sometimes an autocrat may find it must keep that military too busy to think about the autocrat as the enemy. Or the autocrat may find that nationalism inspires at least part of the military to act when it believes the political leadership will not--or to protect itself as the true defender of the nation.

Have a super sparkly "how's that pucker factor" day.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. 

"Europe" Identifies Its Real Enemy

Sometimes enemies telegraph their hostility. Say, look at what the European Union wants. When the solution to every problem is "ever closer union" you have to consider whether ever closer union is the only thing that matters to Brussels.

This is fascinating in what it reveals:

Factional struggles around the US president have left Europe at the mercy of competing foreign policy agendas. But European disunity only undermines European interests[.]

What's the solution? More "Europe":

Europeans need to gather all the unity they can to undermine Washington’s divide-and-conquer strategy.

To defend themselves against America.

I think that divide-and-conquer accusation is a whole lot of EU projection. And of course the EU fanboys (and girls) view America as their main enemy. America is the main reason Europeans have freedom more broadly since 1945. 

Without American influence in Europe, I don't know how long that breadth of freedom will last. The proto-imperial European Union can't strip away the prefix to suppress stirrings of liberty amongst the peasants who need to know their place with America around. So every "crisis"--real or imagined--is an opportunity to chip away at the prefix.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

That Word "Inconceivable" Doesn't Mean What You Think It Means

Are Europeans worrying too much about Russia's conventional threat given that Russia has been unable to overwhelm much smaller Ukraine after more than 4-1/2 years of war? Maybe that level of threat is inconceivable in the near term. But perhaps Europeans collectively just aren't as good as Ukraine.

Yes, Russia’s military is wounded: 

Russia’s special operation in Ukraine has left many analysts skeptical about whether Russia is brazen enough to launch an attack on a NATO member state, even if it were limited. They argue that the Ukraine war has left Russia bogged down and ill-equipped to open another front. But make no mistake, the operation in Ukraine has not paralyzed Russia. The Kremlin is ready to mobilize hundreds of thousands of additional troops and continues to stockpile drones and other munitions. Time is of the essence, and European nations must respond by addressing glaring military deficiencies and mentally preparing their populations for the possibility of war.

I'm not saying Russia could advance to the Rhine River. But empires aren't built in one campaign. So don’t dismiss Russia's capacity to wage war on Europeans. Especially if they are weak and atomized. America really should stay in NATO to maintain focused unity.

War is a contest of relative power. How are Europeans doing?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Navy Escort Carriers

A call for cheap and more numerous escort carriers is valid. But the America-class big deck amphibious warfare ship is not an escort carrier. Using it as an example over-states what actual escort carriers can do.

These authors call for Navy escort carriers:

An escort carrier would be optimized to achieve local air superiority and secondarily support amphibious operations within the First Island Chain. The current America-class amphibious assault ships come close but, without key capabilities, fall short of what a modern escort carrier would be. In the interim, the Navy must proceed with building America-class ships.

But America-class ships are really more like light carriers between escort and super carrier size. And America is not designed as a true light carrier despite having a back-up carrier role--it is an amphibious warfare ship.* And an expensive capital ship, too, requiring escorts and not really providing the numbers that cheaper dedicated escort carriers could provide. Although they would have the ability to be used as small amphibious warfare ships as a back-up role.

But I do think we should build actual escort carriers. I admit the efficiency of  super carriers is a factor. But survivability of fleet-wide aviation capabilities is also an urgent factor. With precision weapons and stealth, large strike packages that only a super carrier can provide aren't needed for a lot of missions. 

But I will settle for a sea-based aviation debate that rigorously examines if we need sea-based aviation; and if we do, what form should it take.  

*Although I retract my suggestion in that post for large Ford-class vessels with some designed as carriers with a back-up amphibious role and some designed as amphibious ships with a back-up carrier role. Seemed like a good idea at the time ... 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: CVE image from world-war-2.wikia.com.

Drones Get a New, Fresh Bureaucracy

Remember Caesar drone, thou art but a man weapon.

Huh: 

The Pentagon is creating a new four-star command to oversee the military’s push into autonomous warfare, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the technology is advancing faster than the military’s acquisition system can keep up.

Notwithstanding the logo, the command is for all services. So that includes UAVs, USVs, UUVs, and UGVs, right? Would it include space unmanned vehicles, or is that just SOP for space? 

As long as it doesn’t devolve into Victory Through Drone Power thinking:

So I'm not rejecting small drones. I embrace them. But they are just part of a complete combined arms breakfast and not the Holy Grail of silver bullet weapons that promise cheap, decisive victory.

Narrow advocacy can devolve into silver bullet faith all too easily.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from article.

The Winter War of 2022 Sends Mixed Signals About Power

 

Ukraine continues to demonstrate an ability to advance despite the drone-saturated front line. Russia seemingly prepares for renewed offensives after mobilization of reservists and committing accumulated armored combat vehicles that Russia has largely withdrawn from battle. The air campaigns loom larger in theories of victory. Russia tries to intimidate NATO by figuratively waving nukes around.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Siege of Iran

In case you missed it on Substack: My Glimpses of Military Service

In case you missed it on Substack: Reviewing the Russian Decline Era

In case you missed it on Substack: Ukraine's Combined Arms Warfare

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Ukraine Adapts to Fight the War It is Compelled to Fight

Ukraine has built an outstanding battle management system to cope with the war they are in that features a sustained Russian offensive relying on overwhelming Ukrainian defenders with numbers. Avoid the temptation to blindly adopt a system designed for Ukraine's war against Russia. 

The Ukrainian Delta system has been outstanding in creating a lightning fast integrated reconnaissance strike complex:

Delta is a digital battle management system that gives Ukrainian soldiers, battalions, and brigades a major advantage, as it enables them to observe the combat zone live and quickly know what has to be done next while automatically sharing information within a unit or, if necessary, with NATO allies. This produced dramatic results on the battlefield. Before Delta, once you identified a Russian target, it took about three days to launch an attack. With Delta, it takes seconds, or up to a minute in difficult circumstances.

But it would make total sense if the system is optimized for a static front (yes, it is static—not inert—so don’t be picky on word choice). That's the war Ukraine is waging and they have to win that war.

To me, this system copes with the static war rather than seeking to integrate many new weapons and systems into expanded combined arms operations to break the static war. Which I discussed in Army magazine. 

Can Delta be adapted for a war of movement? Just saying don't cut and paste lessons from how Ukraine must fight to how we want to fight. Otherwise we will get the war we build our military to fight.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Oh ... Canada--Wait. What?

I think Canada needs an intervention. Not a military intervention. But an intervention of friends--perhaps the governors of American states that trade heavily with Canada--concerned about Canada's recent self-destructive behavior.

Canada's prime minister has stoked anti-Americanism for domestic political objectives. And now Carney wants to “own the MAGA” via the EU: 

International opportunism retains its attractions even among the polite and inoffensive. Mark Carney won election by distracting Canadians from the serial failures of his Liberal predecessor with his “elbows up” campaign against Donald Trump. ... Carney preferred to take his place on the international stage as an icon of liberal internationalism. Clearly his term as governor of the Bank of England only whetted his appetite for even greater standing in world affairs. Why waste one’s time repairing national health care, facing down Albertan separatists or (God help you) appeasing the Québécois, when you could bask in the acclaim of your Davos compadres?

Putin tried that strategy by elevating the post-Cold War neutered NATO into a looming enemy to hide Russia's appeasement of China in order to save Russia's Far East. Putin and Russians eventually believed that ridiculous claim and created rearming enemies in Europe.

I like Canada. I have Canadian relatives. I've been there a lot. But I think Canadians are off their government-subsidized meds. 

At least Canada won't face American invasion--oh, FFS, seriously, Carney?--as a consequence of their ridiculous claim. But Canada will not prosper on this path even if Carney faces no repercussions.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Accept No Substitute For POLARCOM?

America is stitching together a pseudo Polar Command from three combatant commands. Is this a case of when you start to establish POLARCOM, establish POLARCOM?

Is this good enough? 

U.S. Northern Command plans to sign an agreement with its European and Pacific counterparts to enhance coordination and close security seams in the Arctic, a strategically vital region where all three commands converge, U.S. officials told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

NORTHCOM’s Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, U.S. European Command’s Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, and U.S. Pacific Command’s Adm. Samuel Paparo will finalize the agreement, which aims to strengthen information sharing and ensure that adversaries cannot exploit the geographic boundaries among the commands.

Or do we need an actual POLARCOM instead of messing around with substitutes?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article.

A Real Lesson in Getting Distracted

Much is being made about Iran soaking up too much of our resources. This has long been an issue. And we have coped in the past. It is obviously not ideal. But that's reality. Russia really provides a lesson in focusing on one threat while other objectives deteriorate.

A global power must balance its military power globally to deal with many active and potential threats. Even a regional power has that problem: 

This happens fairly regularly. Washington dealt with it in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, but perhaps a more instructive example of the dangers of sustained high-intensity warfare is Russia. The expectation of a short campaign in Ukraine became a prolonged drain on troops, munitions, industry and political attention. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh [from Armenia], fundamentally altering the balance of power in its near-abroad, while the fall of the Assad regime in Syria weakened Russia’s position in the Middle East. The war in Ukraine did not cause either setback, but Russia’s prolonged concentration there appears to have reduced Moscow’s ability to prevent them. 

Russia has not coped despite a much more massive ammunition supply and weapons reserves. And Russia's Far East remains at risk. But hey, it will all be worth it once Putin defeats Nazis, NATO, and the Devil himself in Ukraine. 

America has coped in the past and is coping now. Again, not ideal. But we are hardly helpless. And we will always have to make tradeoffs. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Surely Russia Isn't Stupid Enough To Draw NATO Closer to Its Nuclear Bastion

I'll stop calling you Shirley, but I can't believe even Russia would be so epically stupid by stoking a crisis at Norway's Svalbard Islands, thinking Russia can exploit the complicated legal status that includes a large Russian settlement there. 

It seems unlikely that Russia would attempt to test NATO’s Article V "all-for-one" provision at Norway’s Svalbard Islands:

For the best part of a century, the biggest threat to the residents of Svalbard was polar bears. Increasingly, it now comes from Russia. 

Fears are growing that Moscow could use the sprawling Arctic archipelago — a part of Norway with an unusual legal status — to test NATO militarily amid growing uncertainty over the U.S. commitment to European defense. 

NATO absolutely should and would respond. And drawing NATO forces close to Russia’s SSBN bastion seems like an epic level of stupid even for Moscow when prudence right now argues for NATO avoiding a test of Russia's paranoia line there.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Seeks Victory Through Air Power

 

Each side has hopes that it can yet win on the ground. Russia with masses of new men from a reservist mobilization; and Ukraine with improved offensive tactics exploiting ground drones being tested on the battlefield. Yet each side seemingly puts greater hope on Victory Through Air Power as each wages strategic bombing campaigns with long-range drones and missiles. This winter we will see if the latter route to victory can work for either side. And in the spring and summer of 2027, we may see the ground efforts should the air campaigns fail to produce decisive results.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Standing On the Edge of Freedom

In case you missed it on Substack: Honey! I Shrunk the Air Force!

In case you missed it on Substack: Achieving Surprise on a "Transparent" Battlefield

In case you missed it on Substack: Reviewing a Minimally Manned Infantry Fighting Vehicle

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Decimate the UN Bureaucracy (Ten Times)

The United Nations isn't useless. But it should be cut down to a third of its budgetary size to prevent the body from being used to wage war against the West by other means--while the West pays for it.

This is about right:

[T]he United Nations has long ceased to be a forum for international peace – if it ever was – and is today governed by brutal realpolitik. ... When [Poland's foreign minister] speaks of punishing Russia for its aggression, he is channelling the word and spirit of the UN charter, which promises ‘to uphold justice and respect for treaties and international law’ and ‘reaffirm faith in … the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small’. But the United Nations is, today, no place for such talk. 

I don't mind the UN being a place to blast America. It comes with the territory. And it is good to have a place for countries with grievances to blow off steam. If they believe that is equivalent to action, great. I once (more than two decades ago) thought a League of Democracies would be an alternative to the UN. The urge to see that as our salvation persists. But let's not pretend democracies are an automatic source of support for America.

At the risk of digressing, I do see one way such a parallel international body hosted by Taiwan could be useful. 

The UN is now a place for enemies to organize anti-Western activities under the guise of cultural, humanitarian, educational, or other reasons--with the West paying the bill--and should be ended. Drop the UN to a core of functions that eliminates the non-diplomatic and peacekeeping functions. And if we choose to have non-core functions under the UN, build a new UN complex in Kinshasa (to pick a Third World city at random) and see how eager people are for that duty station. Why not with global Internet capabilities?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Seeking the Goldilocks Standard of Support For Taiwan

Should America have a more explicit set of conditions for assisting Taiwan to prevent China from thinking we believe Taiwan is strong enough to fight without us? Maybe. But don't get carried away.  

What happens after deterrence over Taiwan fails? 

Much of the American debate over Taiwan concentrates on preventing China from using force in the first place. Strategic ambiguity is defended because uncertainty is supposed to complicate Chinese calculations while discouraging unilateral actions by Taipei. Strategic clarity is advocated because an explicit American commitment might convince Beijing that an attack cannot succeed without bringing the United States into the war. Chen approaches the problem from another direction: deterrence can also be weakened if Washington inadvertently signals that its willingness to act depends on Taiwan satisfying an escalating series of demands. 

Um [scratching my head and answering with an uptalk], war? 

Which is why I hate planning for deterrence rather than victory. 

How we fight will depend on how far along we are on the crawl-walk-run continuum for ground force readiness and cooperation with Taiwan.

Still, ambiguity about American intentions also serves to rein in Taiwan so they don't drag us into a war with China by initiating combat in a crisis, sure we will jump in to bail them out.

Strategy is hard.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Useful Idiots in a Circular Firing Squad

As we react to Russia's increasingly bold campaign of sabotage in Western countries, let's ponder the brilliance of China's far more effective campaign that relies on Western stupidity that pretends to save the world.

The Chinese must wake up each morning and thank Mao for having enemies who are morons:

The UK is deindustrializing, and has tied itself to China in more ways than one due to its foolish NetZero energy policies. 

And not just Britain. Europe more generally. And too many parts of America, too.

The Chinese exploit fear of climate change and a desire to be the planet's savior to downgrade any energy source but solar and wind. With the plausible supporting argument of reducing reliance on Middle East fossil fuels.

This transition to "renewables" increases costs of electricity resulting from the glorious "transition" to a "renewable" future is crippling Britain's industry (and Europe's, more broadly). It reduces the resilience of the electrical grid. This also allows China to earn lots of money to produce the wind and solar equipment that fuels the "transition." And this changes Western energy reliance on Middle East fossil fuels to Chinese solar panels and windmills.

One must give the Chinese Communist Party a grudging salute for their brilliance. 

Tip to InstaPundit. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from this article.