tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-91716092024-03-18T20:05:53.079-04:00The Dignified RantAn online journal of commentary, analysis, and dignified rants on national security issues. Other posts on home life, annoying things, and a vast 'other' are clearly marked.Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comBlogger22571125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-557115174408673702024-03-18T06:53:00.102-04:002024-03-18T11:52:16.056-04:00The Winter War of 2022 Validates Putin's BrillianceThe Russian people have spoken. They are thankful to Putin for sending their men to die in Ukraine. Putin will honor their wishes by sending many more young Russian men to early deaths in Ukraine. And to further highlight his brilliance, Putin reminds his subjects that he needs early use of nuclear weapons to protect Russia from invasion and destruction. But God help us, we might enable a Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-33540184171016691062024-03-17T16:01:00.016-04:002024-03-17T16:01:00.238-04:00Weekend Data DumpSo apparently, The New York Times best seller list is professional wrestling for college grads. Tip to Instapundit.Citizens of Hartford, CT are starting armed civilian patrols to battle crime. "The mayor added that the city did not need people being trained to walk
the streets with guns and trying to take the law into their own hands." Apparently the city needs exactly that. Tip to Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-34421021159242987582024-03-16T06:31:00.024-04:002024-03-16T06:31:00.131-04:00Defeating an Enemy Imposes the Ultimate CostPorcupines are still prey despite their quills.Sure, NATO needs more than just meeting its 2% defense goal to defeat Russia. But I reject this:The role of technology in the Ukraine war must be integrated, from the
use of drones and Starlink satellite internet for communications to
dazzlingly shortened timeframes to field new types of weapons. All this
should be incorporated in a “porcupine Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-64166373216918607462024-03-15T07:12:00.039-04:002024-03-15T07:12:00.124-04:00Building Blocks for Time of Troubles 2.0The defeat of Prigozhin's Wagner revolt wasn't the end of Russia's mercenary problem. It was the beginning. Russia's patchwork of mercenary forces seems like a bad idea to me. It's an interesting read and I'll pull out the executive summary bullet points I think are most important for this post:PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in the
Kremlin’s war against Ukraine and Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-53085270435147798762024-03-14T06:58:00.036-04:002024-03-18T08:44:00.331-04:00Smart Diplomacy® is the Participation Ribbon of Foreign PolicyLeftists like to say it takes two sides to wage war. Which if true means one side (always America or our allies) can choose to make peace unilaterally. That is folly. But in one sense the leftists are correct. If only one side wages war, peace will certainly come. But the "peace" will be on the terms of the side that actually wages war. The left works hard to make sure we aren't that side. I Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-79147646196738571152024-03-13T06:50:00.041-04:002024-03-13T08:08:04.032-04:00Are Armed Helicopters Worth the Effort?Should the Army transition away from armed helicopters over the battlefield? Optimist that I am, I'm happy the Army program to develop a scout helicopter was only a $11 billion waste of effort: The U.S. Army has spent more than $11 billion on failed attempts to
develop a new scout helicopter. The scout helicopter was meant to find
targets for the larger and heavily armed AH-64 helicopter.Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-13978003228704087232024-03-12T07:35:00.008-04:002024-03-12T09:56:00.874-04:00Stunning and Shredding the EnemyWas lack of air power the reason Ukraine's 2023 Big Counteroffensive failed? There are lots of reasons why the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive failed. Too few Ukrainian troops. Too little Western equipment, meaning Ukraine's new units couldn't afford to take losses. Too little training. Lack of command and control capacity. The end of tank dominance. The revival of Russian morale. Drones. Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-24046690411679381872024-03-11T06:51:00.003-04:002024-03-12T07:57:17.569-04:00The Winter War of 2022 OverreachesPutin demands more from the war he started as a special military operation. More results. And more blood.I've long said that a "peace" in the war would just be an opportunity for Russia to reload. The Russians don't want Ukraine to take the same opportunity in Russia's version of "peace":Reported details of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations that occurred in Istanbul in April 2022 indicate thatBrian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-86417716314918360862024-03-10T15:23:00.275-04:002024-03-10T15:23:00.128-04:00Weekend Data DumpIran's Potemkin Weapons announcements. Of course, some work and are put into production.The West has naval superiority over Russia, so the West should "use naval power to scare Moscow into allocating its scarce
resources to defending its huge coastlines rather than invading
neighbors." True. But the other side of the coin is that Western navies diverted scarce resources from needed land Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-45064717440837632562024-03-09T07:17:00.036-05:002024-03-17T09:28:26.370-04:00The Last Hamas War Gets a Dose of Smart Diplomacy®The Last Hamas War enters a new stage courtesy of Biden's fear of losing the November election. Raping and killing 1,200 Jews is getting Hamas a port, courtesy of America. How many Jews does Hamas have to kill to get a luxury resort?In the annals of Smart Diplomacy®, truly this Biden initiative will long be spoken of with hushed tones of awe:In his State of the Union address Thursday night, U.S. Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-70786597093204189382024-03-08T07:07:00.010-05:002024-03-08T07:07:00.128-05:00Why Iran Has Ballistic Missiles to Send to RussiaAmerica assisted Russia's aerial assault on Ukraine by enabling Iran to develop ballistic missiles in the highly flawed 2015 Iran nuclear deal.America is only finally thinking about sending long-range missiles to Ukraine. But Iran sent them to Russia: Iran
has provided Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface
ballistic missiles, six sources told Reuters, deepening the Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-10419551173014272582024-03-07T06:22:00.280-05:002024-03-07T06:22:00.141-05:00Have People Permanently Lost Their Minds Over Iraq?Why do so many people insist we lost the Iraq War in defiance of the evidence staring at us?What. The. Actual. F**k:So disastrous was the Iraq war,
in fact, so costly and unforced an error, that in retrospect it seems
the hinge of the entire post–Cold War era, the moment when American
hegemony switched from successful to problematic, welcomed to resisted.
Two decades on, the unipolar moment Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-66571298480046342922024-03-06T06:50:00.003-05:002024-03-06T06:50:00.127-05:00Is the FPV Suicide Drone as Effective as Its Reputation?I have no doubt small aerial drones--including FPV suicide drones--are a valuable new weapon. But is it the Silver FPV Bullet it is often made out to be?I've expressed my doubts about the dominance of First-Person Viewer (FPV) drones based on a moment in time during the Winter War of 2022 that doesn't allow for the development of counter-measures. But before we focus to the drone versus Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-9509277817649404452024-03-05T06:50:00.009-05:002024-03-05T08:54:14.456-05:00Loose Apps Sink ShipsWe have long known our command posts are missile magnets because of all the ways they emit signals that an enemy can detect and attack. Every troop with a modern phone is a missile magnet now. Targeting is easier with a complacent and cooperative enemy: As the general paced
the briefing room, he displayed a piece of lethal technology and
detailed the death and chaos it has caused in Ukraine.
Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-75097508331971091882024-03-04T07:18:00.116-05:002024-03-08T11:36:06.805-05:00Dude, Enthusiasm for the Winter War of 2022 Was Like, Two Years AgoUkraine's military lacked the means to prevent Russia from threatening to encircle the city and capture its defenders. So it wisely withdrew its troops to a new line further west. Did Avdiivka break the West even if it didn't break Ukraine? Russia is now grinding forward in the east, using additional forces sent to the section of the front; while keeping up the pressure in the south. They are Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-7162988651383591582024-03-03T19:20:00.918-05:002024-03-03T19:20:00.124-05:00Weekend Data DumpBut how much success has Ukraine had? "Russia has been seeking countries where they can recruit local men to be mercenaries but has had little or no success." Russia did recruit 15,000 non-Gurkha Nepalese. That's 15,000 Russians who won't die charging the guns.Huh: "The Greek government on Monday approved the country's participation in a
European Union naval mission in the Red Sea to protect Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-4473881578815178172024-03-02T07:58:00.006-05:002024-03-04T08:43:57.285-05:00Are Russia's Nukes Real and Spectacular?Russia's need for nukes to defend its territorial integrity is even higher as its ground forces continue to get ground down trying to conquer Ukraine. Moscow does not want China to be tempted. Well, sure: FT reported that the documents show that Russia has war-gamed avenues
for employing tactical weapons and alleged that the files show that
Russia has a lower threshold for using nuclear Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-76332835844057531542024-03-01T07:17:00.096-05:002024-03-06T11:42:50.166-05:00Strategersky?I think Putin screwed the pooch by portraying a docile and disarming West as his enemy. But the West has to make Putin pay the price for it to be a serious mistake. If we let Russia defeat Ukraine by depriving Ukraine of the means to fight, in fifty years Putin's strategic error could instead look far-sighted.Indeed:As far as the history of Russia is concerned, I think he will be
remembered as Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-89585643744967225012024-02-29T06:47:00.015-05:002024-03-02T08:03:46.473-05:00A Fully-Fledged Geopolitical Union Emerges From the Brussels SwampThe proto-imperial European Union apparatchiki care about nothing more than ridding themselves of that troublesome prefix. This is all consistent:Von der Leyen proclaimed that the EU had already matured
into a fully-fledged geopolitical union through its support for Ukraine
and its stance toward an increasingly assertive China. In a run-up to
the December 2023 EU-China Summit, the Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-2176824647984528482024-02-28T06:59:00.003-05:002024-02-28T06:59:00.125-05:00Another ESB Joins the FleetUSS John L. Canley joins the fleet to project power in non-intense environments.Another mobile sea-based asset: The Navy will commission the future USS John L. Canley (ESB 6) as the
newest Expeditionary Sea Base ship (ESB)[.]These aren't replacements for the amphibious warfare ships the Navy has to send Marines ashore against opposition: ESB 6 joins the USS Lewis B. Puller (ESB 3), USS Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-4222544021386101912024-02-27T07:49:00.010-05:002024-02-27T07:49:00.130-05:00Comrades! The Memory Hole Has Been Activated!Much as American leftists spun on a dime from demanding America remain neutral in World War II when the Nazi-Soviet pact was active to demanding aid to Britain and the USSR once Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union, Western progressives are switching their views on World War II because the Bad Orange Man gave an opinion on the war. It's complicated. And has lessons for the Winter War of 2022.TheBrian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-80907019465863526252024-02-26T07:46:00.008-05:002024-02-29T11:00:11.392-05:00The Winter War of 2022 Seeks a Reason to LiveSo both parties don't want Ukraine to win their war against Russia's invasion? Let's look a little more closely, shall we?ISW reflects on two years of open warfare. Is there a consensus in America that dooms Ukraine?The dominant narrative today holds that Joe Biden and Donald Trump
are opposites on Ukraine. The president supports the Senate bill that
includes about $60 billion for Kyiv, mostly Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-15085602054385546832024-02-25T17:17:01.088-05:002024-02-26T08:05:42.742-05:00Weekend Data DumpHmmm: Per Reuters, "Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani directed Iranian-backed Iraqi groups to 'pause' attacks on US forces during a January 29 meeting in Baghdad." Our strikes were that intense? Or does Iran know Biden is wrapping gifts?Ef around. Find out. How many businesses or rich people will want to risk the state apparatus being turned Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-12889224835711482602024-02-24T07:43:00.013-05:002024-02-24T07:43:00.131-05:00Achieving Space Surprise?How do you hide your ambitions for space infantry? Hide it in a proposal so ludicrous and expensive that you can't imagine the Pentagon not carrying out the distraction mission.The idea that we'd use a spaceship to move a small amount of supplies or troops around the planet in the blink of the eye seems ludicrous (via Instapundit):"Rocket cargo point-to-point is not the reason we're building
Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9171609.post-42984372767453500762024-02-23T07:16:00.076-05:002024-02-23T07:16:00.129-05:00The Dyle Plan 2.0 Forms in Plain SightI don't blame the Baltic NATO states for not wanting to be on the wrong side of a stalemated front between Russian invaders and NATO allies. But we've seen this play out before and it ends in disaster for the free West. NATO must not make the perfect the enemy of the good, and rush into a kill sack.These NATO allies are rightly afraid of Russian threats:The Baltics have been pushing for the NATO Brian J. Dunnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03949518866034572156noreply@blogger.com