An online journal of commentary, analysis, and dignified rants on national security issues. Other posts on home life, annoying things, and a vast 'other' are clearly marked.
I live and write in Ann Arbor, Michigan. University of Michigan AB and MA from Eastern Michigan University. One term in the Michigan Army National Guard. Former American history instructor and retired nonpartisan research analyst. I write on Blogger and Substack. Various military and private journals have published my occasional articles on military subjects. See "My Published Works" on the TDR web version or under the mobile version drop-down menu for citations and links.
I have finally salvaged my pre-Blogger TDR archives and added them into Blogger. They are almost totally in the form of one giant post for each month. And the formatting strayed from the originals. Sorry.
But historians everywhere can rejoice that this treasure trove of my thoughts is restored to the world.
And for your own safety, don't click on any old Geocities links or any of their similar variations in my posts. Those sites have been taken over by bad and/or dangerous sites. Hover over links first!
China and Japan reported conflicting accounts on Tuesday of a confrontation near the disputed Senkaku Islands involving their coast guards and a Japanese fishing vessel.
The waters around the islands, which China calls the Diaoyu Islands,
are claimed by both Beijing and Tokyo. Both sides have faced off in the
waters over the years, deploying patrol boats and urging the other to
leave the area.
The war goes on with domestic support for fighting seemingly uncertain in both countries. What happens when sailors decide to save their lives even as the rich save their wealth from Putin’s war? What if that understandable motivation can be elevated by claiming to save Russia from losing their survivable nuclear deterrent?
NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
The
Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous
week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on
everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me.
So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest
go in the data dump. Enjoy!
Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.
The regional war has presented Iraq’s prime minister, al-Zaidi, with the
strongest opportunity yet to reassert state authority over the PMF, an
objective that had eluded every prime minister since the founding of the
current Shiite-dominated political system in 2003. Unlike his
predecessors, al-Zaidi enjoys a rare convergence of interests in which
many militia leaders have become invested in Iraq’s political and
economic stability, while facing unprecedented pressure from Washington
to dismantle Iranian-backed armed groups. His political standing has
been strengthened by explicit U.S. backing for his premiership, which
was widely understood to be contingent on meaningful progress toward
disarming the militias. These favorable conditions have already produced
tangible steps toward integrating or demobilizing several major
factions, suggesting that Baghdad may finally have an opportunity to
weaken one of the principal pillars of Iranian influence in Iraq.
I think I threw up a little bit in my mouth when I read that Senators are worried Space Force doesn't have enough lawyers. We don't have friggin' space lasers yet. But we're right on that issue of space JAGs.
As Space Force leaders push for more orbital warfighting capabilities
and even potential moon operations, senators want to make sure they have
enough space-focused military lawyers for future conflicts.
Mind you, for administrative stuff, sure we need military lawyers for this new domain. But when you say they are needed for "future conflicts" my hull breach alarm starts ringing loudly.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!
Some European states are responding to the Trump administration by
seeking “strategic autonomy.” Poland, however, is trying to make itself a
more appealing ally to Washington.
Iran may use their Houthi proxy to interfere with Red Sea traffic, some of which is bypassing Hormuz. Iran has spent a lot of years trying to build a proxy in that region capable of doing this.
Having choked off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is now
signaling it could play its most dangerous card yet: using Yemen's
Houthi allies to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea, opening a
new front against Washington and putting two of the world's most vital
energy arteries at risk.
I quibble with the claim that Iran has choked off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. I say their threat could be defeated but nobody wants to expend the effort to do so, preferring to wait until the crisis ends ... somehow. If oil shortages really hit, the effort would be made.
There are 150 CSSA chapters
at colleges and universities across the country. Though they appear to
be harmless cultural groups at first glance, these organizations play a
central role in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) united front work,
which aims to monitor Chinese students abroad, stifle any form of
opposition to the regime, and co-opt individuals who aren’t affiliated
with the party.
I must conclude that Russia’s ground forces have essentially collapsed for all practical purposes in an offensive role. When they have proven for three months that they are no longer the relentless steam roller constantly—if slowly—advancing into Ukraine despite losses, refusing to accept that is willful blindness. And their defensive abilities are suspect. Russian ground forces could recover, of course, given time and resources. Is Ukraine capable of exploiting this time of military troubles plaguing the Russian ground forces?
NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
The
Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous
week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on
everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me.
So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest
go in the data dump. Enjoy!
Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.
Unless you assume that great power war will quickly escalate to world-ending nuclear exchanges, repairing battle damage to our fleet is a vital component of waging war. America has problems.
But China has learned the wrong lessons from America’s stealth program, according to U.S. Air Force analysis released this month. China is convinced that advanced technology is the foundation of U.S. stealth capabilities.
But
in reality, the key to American success has been treating stealth as
just one component of integrated aerial warfare, the report said.
The Chinese seem to think a wonder detection system can defeat our stealth wonder weapons.
Do the Chinese think that stealth aircraft don't need to operate with electronic warfare support and all the other assets that America brings to an air campaign?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!
It sets no concrete force-building targets to review annually and trigger a political response when not met.
Despite
this, the analysis does contain some positive points suggesting a shift
in the military’s mindset. The Bundeswehr’s focus on the threat Russia poses
is sensible, as is the recognition that Europe must provide its own
conventional defense within NATO, as the United States clearly has other
priorities.
I'm not worried that force structure isn't an apparent priority because Germany needs the defense industry to support an expansion. Otherwise, the expanded force structure will be hollow.
A new theory about the hider-finder competition between air penetration
and air defense shows that drones are vulnerable to air defenses and
electronic warfare systems, and that they require support from other
force structure assets to be effective. This competition imposes high
costs on those who fail to master the set of tactics, techniques,
procedures, technologies, and capabilities necessary to limit exposure
to enemy fire and to detect enemy targets.
I'm not sure what is new about their formulation of the usual competition between lethality and protection is. But I'll not quibble when so many throw panties at FPV suicide drones.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!
China's first-wave amphibious tanks heading for Taiwan will survive with variant support vessels and other robotic assets in a networked drone defense during the dangerous run to the beaches.
The contemporary discourse on drone-driven warfare rarely suggests the end of maneuver, but it highlights an increasingly perilous gap
between tactical movement and force survivability in a hypertransparent
environment. Against this backdrop, the Chinese People’s Liberation
Army’s sustained commitment to amphibious armor invites examination of
how a high-end force intends to bridge that gap in the contested
littoral space. The recent discovery of a mine-clearing variant built on China’s new amphibious armored vehicle chassis,
successor to the Type-05 series, shows that Beijing is not pivoting
away from the littoral zone in the face of drone proliferation. Instead,
China’s defense industrial base continues to develop specialized
variants that transform the platforms and the army and marine corps brigades
that field them into a self-contained breaching ecosystem. This
continuous hardware evolution signals a permanent pillar of China’s
force design.
Will the PLA match Hobart's funnies designed for D-Day in the variety of variants to fight their way ashore through a Hellscape of fires and drones?
Is Belarus Putin’s last card to play in his invasion of Ukraine? The
potential for success seems low and the potential for disasters of
different varieties seems rather high.
NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
The
Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous
week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on
everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me.
So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest
go in the data dump. Enjoy!
Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.
My mom made this for me for the 200th anniversary*:
I will have my 50-star flag out on the flag pole. Of course. And I bought the most eye-catching 250 shirt I could find.
It is hard not to be an optimist about America.
My grandparents came here
from Ireland and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. One grandfather served in
World War I and the other served on the Mexican border mission prior to
World War I; my parents (my dad was barely old enough to enlist in the
Navy in World War II) built a solid blue collar life for me and my siblings in a
deteriorating Detroit, and told me I should go to college; I became the
first in my family (with two brothers serving during the Vietnam War,
one serving in Vietnam) to go to college (with a side trip to the Army
National Guard that somehow didn’t send me to the Persian Gulf) and then
got out of Detroit for a white collar career; and my children have
opportunity to thrive (one with a PhD and the other in medical school).
It’s the American dream over four generations. I’d have to be an ungrateful moron not to be an optimist! Or to fail to love this country which provides such opportunity.
I don't understand how people's patriotism can vary depending on what party holds the White House. Mine has never varied one bit based on mere politicians. Our country is far more than who we select to sit in the Oval Office. If your patriotism varies by that metric, you love your party and not your country.
Perhaps watch this if you hate your own country and can't bring yourself to celebrate this grand day:
I assume I will make it to celebrate 275. But absent serious advances in medical science, 300 is right out.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!
NOTE: It is actually pretty big. It is stretched across my small sofa for the
picture. I have taken it to every place I have lived since heading off
to college. Thanks, mom! May she rest in peace.
Aerial suicide drones are just the explodey bits of an entire system built to create a kill chain from finding targets to destroying them. Suicide UAVs will become just one of many types of ammunition available to be selected by Artificial Intelligence (AI) for their needed capabilities to kill specific targets.
The AI orchestration software that fuses
sensor feeds, assigns targets, and sequences fires across hundreds of
platforms is already selecting and engaging in the functional sense. In
other words, the software pulling the strings is where the autonomy
lives, not the projectile.
We may say each drone is much cheaper than each shell or rocket.
But you must consider the training needed to fly drones and the cost of
the ground-to-space-spanning intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance (ISR) network and communications network that allow both
FPV drones and precision artillery to find and attack the enemy. With
total costs considered, is the drone really lowering the total cost of
delivering strikes significantly compared to a precision shell or rocket?
Heck, as I observed in this essay, rather than AI making even slightly old weapons obsolete, "perhaps we are underestimating what AI can do with older weapons. Even
as new weapons and means of fighting are used in the Winter War of 2022,
old—ancient in some cases—weapons are being hauled out of storage to
fight."
The entire Reconnaissance Strike Complex system is the key. We can plug in lots of ammunition types into that RSC apart from suicide drones. And when we can do that, small suicide drones will be reduced in importance as other forms of ammunition prove they can do some things better than small suicide drones.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!
With Iran's navy, air power, and surveillance crippled, America was able to use land-based forces to shepherd civilian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
It emerged this month that the US has begun guiding ships through Hormuz
with their signals off, by a route that hugs the Omani coast, helping
to boost oil and cargo flows.
The Navy wasn't needed and was able to act as a hammer from the distance in case the Iranians got too active. And the Marine threat kept the Iranians distracted, too, I bet.
That mission is why we had command and combat elements of the 82nd
Airborne Division there. And why we lost an Apache helicopter when it
was hit by an Iranian UAV.
The Strait wasn't fully open. But it helped to cushion the effect of Iran's effort to close the strait.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!
[Britain used to focus] on what really matters: training, munitions and maintenance. … But since the post-Cold War drawdown that was underway by 1991, almost every European defense ministry has wasted increasing proportions of their diminishing defense spending to keep increasingly empty bases open — often just to preserve civilian janitors and ground-keepers in a job[.]
So what they have is a bloated organization and officer corps that maintain the base at the expense of the sharp edge of usable military power.
Protest:
“British Defense Secretary John Healey resigned on Thursday, accusing
U.K. prime minister Keir Starmer of skimping on defense spending at a
time of ‘rising threats.’” Britain’s budget is sizable. Much seemingly
supports an administrative base rather than the shrinking fighting
force.
Yes, the administrative base thrives. Never mind the purpose of the military is to fight and the administrative base is supposed to sustain the tip of the spear. That priority is inverted in Britain--and in too much of Europe.
Does anybody really think that the European Union could weld these pieces together into a cohesive force? It won't even be able to weld them into a cohesive bureaucratic entity. Nor does it care if it does.
Also, the initial article has a bonus slam against UNIFAIL UNIFIL.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!
