Iran's collapse in Syria brings America opportunity in Iraq.
Iraq lives in a rough neighborhood. Iraq has asked the Iranians to rein in their PMF militias inside Iraq because they may attract American attention:
Sudani’s visit to Tehran comes after Iraqi media reports that the United States has pressured the Iraqi federal government to dissolve the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). Iraqi National Wisdom Movement head Ammar al Hakim stated on January 4 that the incoming Trump administration has warned the Iraqi federal government that it will “target” Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.
Because America unwisely abandoned Iraq in 2011, Iraqi fear of Iran without Americans around to help led Iraq's leadership to prioritize loyalty over military capabilities. And without Americans on the ground to monitor the situation, we were blinded to that deterioration.
So when ISIL rose up, Iraqi security forces collapsed in the north. Iran exploited that opportunity to set up PMF militias. After Iraq defeated ISIL in Iraq by recapturing the territory the "caliphate" held, many PMF units have looked to Iran for orders. We need to demobilize or bring under Iraqi control the PMF.
ISW noted post-Assad developments in Iraq:
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly agreed to preserve the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The PMF is an Iraqi state security service that includes many Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, Kataib Hezbollah, and Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada all control brigades in the PMF. Khamenei opposes dissolving the PMF outright but may support the integration of the PMF into the Iraqi armed forces. The Iraqi federal government could reflag PMF brigades as new units, which would largely retain the units’ composition and structure. Integrating the PMF and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias into the Iraqi security establishment would more entrench the militias into the Iraqi security sector more thoroughly, which would enable deeper Iranian infiltration.
Is Iraq is confident that it can finish this job now that Iran is weakened by multiple defeats of its proxies fighting Israel and the loss of its Syria satrapy? Will America help Iraq purge pro-Iran elements? This is potentially good:
Iraq is trying to convince powerful armed factions in the country that have fought U.S. forces and fired rockets and drones at Israel to lay down their weapons or join official security forces, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said.
But absorbing pro-Iran militia units is risky. Iraq needs time without open conflict with Iran to shift unit loyalties to Iraq.
This news from ISW is comforting, too, indicating Iraq will resist any Iranian effort to re-open the jihadi "ratlines" through Syria to aim ISIL at Iraq if ISIL revives inside Syria:
The Anbar Province Police Command will reportedly assume responsibility for security in Anbar Province, Iraq, from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.
We've never made enough progress on the PMF problem. But perhaps the pressure from Biden and the Trump warning means we will wage the Phase IX campaign in Iraq against Iran as part of a maximum pressure campaign against the nuke-seeking, mullah-run Iran that stokes regional mayhem.
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